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First Southern California storm next week?

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Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 159
First Southern California storm next week? PostFri Sep 14, 2007 8:22 pm  Reply with quote  

Saw this a week ago. Looks possible now. Getting more and more confident.

Winter Storm Avery, the first winter storm of 2007-2008 season may come in the form of a cut off low from the North sometime between September 19 and the 22nd. This would definitely cool temperatures down and even bring a chance of thunderstorms to spots.
This feature would bring strong Northerly winds along the Coastal Central California area which would make driving hazardous as well so stay tuned to OWS for the latest forecasts on it.

Kevin Martin
"Weather is like a cookbook and you need all the ingredients to make the perfect meal".

-Kevin Martin
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Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 953
Location: Maryland
PostSat Sep 15, 2007 1:24 am  Reply with quote  

...Thank God for the Pacific Re-Set Date... Idea
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PostWed Sep 19, 2007 4:09 pm  Reply with quote  

It has come true.

Category - Dynamics include Heavy Rain, Major Winds, and Severe Thunderstorms possible. Upgraded from Category 4 to Category 5 storm. This is a dangerous situation and must not be taken lightly. Flood watches will be issued with this so stay to OWS.

Winter Storm Avery is still very much on track to nail the forecast area Thursday and Friday. I will start out with Thursday. On Thursday Morning before sunrise the center of Avery would be Northwest of San Luis Obispo area. This would put the area under the mid level jet which would aid in shower developments. Thunderstorms are very possible in the area from a -24C 500mb temperature which would create the instability needed. Vorticy advection will add a bonus to this and I don't see how thunderstorms will not form. They should. Small hail is possible with these storms so driving conditions will be hazardous. Areas East of Los Angeles should remain rather dry however some mid level clouds will be with the mid level moisture ahead of Avery and associated jet dynamics.
By Thursday Night Avery would look like a tropical system with structure such as that on satellite. It will look pretty neat and I'll have some archives of those on the post storm discussion of this storm. We will be seeing a major enhancement of vorticy advection for the areas West of Los Angeles after Midnight however with the mid level moisture putting the Inland Empire areas under a dryslot it looks like they will be between moisture fields. Also the vertical velocity patterns would not be strong enough for much of anything but watching this very closely on the next forecast which could alter this. The rest of the forecast area such as Santa Barbara and Vandenberg will have low level vertical velocity/ vort advection / and instability would create thunderstorms in the areas, especially South, and offshore.
By Friday Avery takes a negative tilt which is always good for wicked weather. By the Morning, Avery looks to lose some of it's low level rotation. This would be good for a spiral like band to come into the forecast area from the Channel Islands Vicinity. What I am trying to say is it looks a bit more than just hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. It looks like a full on spiral band type event like a hurricane. Certainly very impressive if this unfolds this way. This band would make it into the Ventura area by the Afternoon bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area with heavy rain. Tehachapi areas would stay drier than the coastal areas as moisture is not very plentiful there at this time but will be later. Being the southerly flow and jet dynamics would be over the areas East of Los Angeles there will be the chance for your action to start there during the Afternoon and increase into the Evening as more moisture and dynamics work their way in.
Snow level Friday would be around 9,000 Feet for the Ventura County Mountains, 8,000 - 7,500 Feet for Big Bear for the dry air in place, 8,000 Feet over the rim, 7,000 Feet Los Angeles County Mountains, 8,000 to 7,000 Feet for the Tehachapi Mountains areas, and 10,000 to 9,000 Feet over the Riverside County Mountains.
By Friday Night the fun really starts for the Los Angeles, Orange County, Inland Empire and Mountain areas nearby as the main dynamics of Avery come in. The main show will be the spiral like band ejecting out which would be in the Los Angeles area by 9pm. This band will satisfy the want for thunderstorms as it will be associated with a very good chance of a light show. These thunderstorms will be driven by a vorticy advection almost too powerful for this area and at this time of year. Same goes with the cold air aloft. I've never in my 10 years of forecasting seen such cold temperatures in September at 18,000 Feet here. The mid level jet will be East of the area however the upper jet will be over the area. A jet streak North of the Inland Empire would make the areas South of the High Desert into the coastal LA/OC/SD areas having thunderstorms as they will be in the upper divergence section of this storm. Favorable jet dynamics and instability will be enough for the mention of tornadoes into Southern California. Yes, I know it sounds crazy but right now it looks like the chance of tornadoes are there. A rare upper level jet will aid the shear positive enough for tornadoes. Waterspouts will be a very good bet as well and all boaters must take this note. It is possible that the OWS Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued with is so stay tuned. Too much to talk about now so I'll leave it there. For the Vandenberg areas, subsidence on the backside of the storm system would clear out showers and thunderstorms over the night. Thunderstorms will increase over the LA/OC/IE/SD/Mountain/Desert areas night into sunrise Saturday Morning where after then we should clear out the showers and thunderstorms to the Northeast forecast area.
Snow Level Friday Night be 8,000 Feet over the Ventura County Mountains, 7,500 Feet Tehachapi Mountains, 8,000 Feet for the Los Angeles County Mountains, 8,000 Feet for the San Bernardino Mountains, and 8,000 Feet for the Riverside County Mountains. Snow levels can lower a couple thousand to a few thousand feet in the more powerful thunderstorms so take note of the elevation when hitting one overnight. Because of the path of this and associated band, I am inclined to say amounts at this time. The amounts are usually given a day before the event so it will probably be given on Thursday for the areas West of Los Angeles but stay tuned.

Winds The approaching Winter Storm Avery is going to produce the Northerly winds offshore Central California. This would create a 10mb difference from the ocean to the deserts. These winds will drive through the Cajon Pass and jet out in the form of advisory level winds during the Afternoon, Evening for the High Deserts. These winds usually die down overnight but do not count on it. OWS formula indicates winds gusting 45-50mph in the High Desert locations based on Avery's mid level jet moving in. Winds will likely be gusting over 50 mph near 55+ mph for the Antelope Valley sections and Tehachapi Mountains. I have issued a High Wind Warning for this cause for strong Southwesterly winds tonight in those areas. Going to add a Wind Advisory for the Riverside/San Bernardino/and San Diego County Mountains as well overnight tonight. The jet would orient itself much better for Mountain Waves to also surface into the lower deserts including the Coachella Valley as 40-50mph gusts.
Thursday Afternoon Avery's mid level jet sticks over the San Diego and Riverside County Mountain for the strongest winds from 40-50 mph in gusts there with stronger gusts surfacing in the deserts and Eastern Mountain slopes known as Mountain Waves. This will need to be monitored for updates so stay in tune to OWS. Wind Advisory level 35-45+ mph gusts will be in the High Desert during this time as well, along with the San Bernardino County Mountains. Take note.
By Thursday Night, the jet decreases a bit as Avery makes it's transition phase toward a negative tilt. This would make the winds drop in gusts 10-15 mph in all areas mentioned above.
By Friday this transition phase would be completed and the jet would be allowed to speed up. This jet is very strong for this time of year. 55-60 mph gusts will be possible across the San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino Mountains, with Mountain waves surfacing in the Northern slopes and adjacent Valleys and Desert areas to the orientation of the Mountains.
By Friday Night - Winds will decrease with the Jet moving East of the forecast area.
"Weather is like a cookbook and you need all the ingredients to make the perfect meal".

-Kevin Martin
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