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2009 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Sep 02, 2009 1:22 am  Reply with quote  

Impact Baja!!! "Jimena" still a very strong CAT 3/4 has begun to pummel the west coast of the Baja Peninsula this evening. It promises to be a ruff night for those in the path of this one tonight, may God help the innocent in its wake.







The Atlantic presented its fifth named storm of the season today as well, meet "Tropical Storm Erika". This storm is still a mystery as to what will develop as it progresses or not...



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Erika east of the Leewards
Last Update: 1-SEP-2009 7:45pm EDT

As of 8PM EDT Ericka the 5th named tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin was 390 miles east of the Leeward islands. Erika was located near 17.2 north, 57.3 west with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Erika was nearly stationary. A U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft reports the surface pressure in Erika has fallen to 1004 millibars or 29.66 inches.Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles mainly east and northeast of the center.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN, THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA, BARBUDA ST. KITTS, NEVIS AND ANGUILLA, ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

The more intense thunderstorms are located east of Ericka's center of circulation due to southwesterly shear. This shear increases to west of the system afternoon a U.S. Air Force Reconnaissance C 130J aircraft found a closed off circulation with tropical storm force winds mostly to the east and northeast of the storm's center. Southwest shear over the tropical storm is projected to limit development through the next 12-18 hours. Shear might relax as the upper-level system causing it moves further west. The storm will track over very warm water during the next several day. So, the upper level wind flow over the storm will be the main limiting factor as far as further intensification. Computer forecasts show this system tracking west northwest for the next 3 days on the southwest periphery of an upper level ridge in place over the central and western Atlantic. This upper level ridge is expected to cause the forward movement of Erika to slow this weekend and early next week. If the ridge stays north of the storm and shear remains weak Erika could intensify into a hurricane. But some computer forecast information shows growing shear over the storm during this weekend. That could prevent further intensification. Since there is a lot of uncertainty on the intensity and movement of the storm interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands Puerto Rico into the Bahamas should keep up with the latest information on Erika.

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic disturbed weather has emerged off the African coast over the past 12 hours. This disorganized area of thunderstorms is projected to become better organized by some computer models in a couple of days. We continue to monitor two tropical waves. One is along 32 west, south of 17 north and the other is along 82 west, south of 17 north. Both tropical waves show no support fordevelopment and no development is expected through at least Thursday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Sep 02, 2009 2:16 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Jimena" is slowing in intensity now a CAT 2 classification hurricane it is still pounding the western coast of Baja California as it makes its move north along the peninsula, delivering huge amounts of rain, wind, and surf...
(unable to attain any visible images more current than previous post at this time)

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Jimena Battering Baja California
Last Update: 2-SEP-2009 08:10am EDT

Hurricane Jimena has weakened some, but is still a category 2 hurricane. As of 5:00 a.m. PDT, Jimena was located near 24.5 north, 112.1 west, or about 30 miles south of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. The central pressure has risen to 970 mb, or 28.64 inches. The hurricane was moving to the north-northwest at 13 mph.

Jimena will remain on a north-northwest track through Wednesday taking the center right up along the southwest coast of Baja California. The hurricane will continue to weaken as the part of the circulation passes over land and it encounters gradually cooler waters. The eastern eye-wall of Jimena will batter coastal areas from Isla Magdalena to Punta San Juanico during the day on Wednesday. Along with destructive winds and storm surge, very heavy rain will accompany the storm up into south-central and central Baja from Wednesday into Thursday with 8 to 15 inches of rain possible along the path. The major resort areas from Cabo San Lucas to Buenavista on the southern end of Baja will gradually have improving weather as the hurricane moves north-northwest away from the area.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the hurricane warning for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula south of Agua Blanca on the west coast and south of La Paz on the east coast including Cabo San Lucas. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Baja California Peninsula from Agua Blanca northward to Punta Abreojos on the west coast and from La Paz northward on Mulege to the east coast.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are now in effect north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia on the west coast of the Baja and north of Mulege on the east coast to Bahia San Juan Batista.

A tropical storm watch is now in effect for the Baja California Peninsula from north of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas on the west coast and north of Bahia San Juan Bautista to Bahia De Los Angeles on the east coast.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the west coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Bahia Kino.

After landfall, the forward speed of Jimena will slow dramatically as the storm weakens fairly quickly over land. Computer forecasts show several different potential paths for the storm later this week. There are now indications that an upper-level high over Southern California and Arizona will block the northward movement of the remains of Jimena. Some models take the center to the northeast and others take it to the west. The westward movement may actually have the somewhat better chance of occurring right now. Shear and land will quickly weaken the winds, but rainfall will continue to fall and depending on how fast the rain diminishes will tell how bad the flooding problems will be in portions of the central Baja Peninsula.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker



"Erika" still a Tropical Storm out in the Atlantic remains unclear as to its future development, but expert predictions say there is a chance it could become a hurricane if conditions become more favorable, at any rate the storm is becoming impressive on satellite imagery as it grows...



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Erika Approaching the Leeward Islands
Last Update: 2-SEP-2009 08:08am EDT

Tropical Storm Erika is less organized than on Tuesday evening, as she approaches the Leeward Islands. At 8 a.m. EDT, the ragged center of Erika was located near 16.5 north, 59.5 west or about 160 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum-sustained winds have dropped to 45 mph and Erika is moving generally west at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure is 1008 millibars or 29.77 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles mainly east and northeast of the center.

The Government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a tropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis and Anguilla. Also, the Government of the Netherlands Antilles has issued a tropical storm warning of St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.

Tropical Storm Erika is not as organized as it was on Tuesday evening and the center of the system has reorganized farther to the south. The intense thunderstorms are still located mainly east and southeast of Erika's center of circulation due to a very dry air mass to the west and northwest of the system. This will continue to affect further intensification. Dry air ahead of the tropical storm is projected to limit development through the next couple of days. The storm will track over very warm water during the next several days. So the dry air being pulled into the the storm will be the main limiting factor as far as further intensification. Computer forecasts show this system tracking west-northwest for the next three days on the southwestern periphery of an upper-level ridge in place over the central and western Atlantic. This upper-level ridge is expected to cause the forward movement of Erika to slow this weekend and early next week. If the ridge stays north of the storm, the shear remains weak and atmosphere moistens up, Erika could intensify into a hurricane. But some computer forecast information shows growing shear over the storm during this weekend. That could prevent further intensification. Since there is a lot of uncertainty on the intensity and movement of the storm interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into the Bahamas should keep up with the latest information on Erika.

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, we continue to monitor three tropical waves. One is along 22 west, south of 19 north, another is along 38 west, south of 16 north and the other is along 88 west, south of 15 north. All of these tropical waves show no support for development and no development is expected through at least Friday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Sep 03, 2009 2:43 pm  Reply with quote  

"Jimena" is no longer a hurricane it has dissipated rather quickly into a Tropical Storm and soon will be a remnant as it heads away from Baja. This watcher has had no time to check on damage reports or fatalities from the storm, hope all made it through unharmed.......


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Jimena over Baja California
Last Update: 3-SEP-2009 07:57am EDT

Tropical Storm Jimena continues to weaken gradually. As of 5:00 a.m. PDT, Jimena was located near 27.8 north, 112.4 west, or about 35 miles north-northwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico. Jimena was moving generally to the north at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph.

Since Jimena continues to drift northward, tropical storm warnings were extended northward along the east coast of Baja California as well as the northwest coast of mainland Mexico. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect for the Baja California Peninsula north of Puerto San Andresito to San Jose De Las Palomas on the west coast and north of Loreto to Calamajue on the east coast. Also, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico from Huatabampito northward to Puerto Libertad.

Jimena will continue to drift northward early Thursday before taking a turn back to the northwest. The center of circulation may briefly enter the Gulf of California for a time, but its interaction with land and increasing wind shear will not allow Jimena to re-strengthen. Despite the fact the center of Jimena is along or just offshore of the east coast of the Baja California, what is left of the deep thunderstorms have been sheared off and pushed into northwestern mainland Mexico, mainly into the state of Sonora. An additional 5 to 10 inches of rain with locally higher amounts to around 15 inches can fall over this area over the next day, causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Jimena continues to drift northward and weaken, the major resort areas from Cabo San Lucas to Buenavista on the southern end of Baja will experience vastly improved weather on Thursday.

Aside from Jimena, a tropical wave is along 102 west between 8 north and 15 north. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski



Out in the Atlantic, "Erika" remains a large unorganized mass of storm. However, expert reports suggest this storm may be facing severely unfavorable conditions for any further development and may be downgraded to a depression soon. Still, we will watch...


quote:
Tropical Storm Erika Churning Towards Puerto Rico
Last Update: 3-SEP-2009 08:18am EDT

Erika continues to struggle and is barely a tropical storm about 220 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. As of 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Erika was located near 16.9 north and 63.1 west and is moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. Estimated central pressure is 1008 millibars, or 29.77 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 mainly to the east and northeast of the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Dominica, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius. Tropical storm watches continue for Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

Erika continues to move through a large area of dry air that covers much of the northeastern Caribbean. Strong high-level winds are also exerting some shear over the system. These effects are causing the storm to remain severely tilted northeast to southwest. Despite the fact that some thunderstorms within Erika contain tropical storm force winds, it is possible Erika may be downgraded to a depression later today as the thunderstorms are generally well east and northeast of the center and the low level circulation is not well defined as shear and dry air continue to take a toll on the storm. A midlevel ridge of high pressure building near Bermuda will steer Erika to the west and west-northwest over the next several days. This will bring clouds, rain and gusty winds over the northern Leeward Islands Thursday, then over the Virgin Islands and into Puerto Rico Thursday night and Friday. As the center crosses over Puerto Rico Thursday night, it will likely weaken to a depression. If Erika stays on a more westerly course, it will have to encounter the rough and higher terrain of Hispaniola this weekend which would likely shred the storm apart. However, Erika may track just north of Hispaniola this weekend and by early next week be located in the southeastern Bahamas. If the storm can overcome dry air and wind shear, this can give Erika an opportunity to regain a little strength and organization. By the middle of next week, regardless of its status, Erika should bring enhanced moisture and thunderstorms to the Florida Peninsula.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a strong tropical wave has now just emerged off the coast of Africa and is moving to the west around 10 to 15 mph. This wave already has numerous showers and thunderstorms with it and slow development is possible the next few days as it churns westward.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Sep 04, 2009 2:00 pm  Reply with quote  

"Jimena" is now classed as a tropical depression but experts warn there may still be some effects in the way of rain to some already saturated areas which may cause potentially dangerous flooding to occur. These storm cells they describe however are not present currently on their own displayed satellite imagery.



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Depression Jimena Still a Flood Threat
Last Update: 4-SEP-2009 07:01am EDT

As of 2 a.m. PDT Friday, Jimena has weakened to a tropical depression centered near 27.4 north and 111.6 west, or about 45 miles east of Santa Rosalia, Mexico. The center of Jimena is drifting southeastward at only 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb, or 29.71 inches. All tropical storm warnings that had been associated with Jimena have been discontinued.

Strong wind shear and interaction with land has finally taken enough of a toll on Jimena that the storm is now only a tropical depression. Satellite imagery shows that thunderstorms east of the center of circulation have decreased in intensity over the last few hours. The slow weakening trend of Jimena will continue today and at some point later in the day on Friday, Jimena will be downgraded to a remnant low pressure area. Even though the center is drifting slowly southeastward, it will eventually take a turn back to the west and southwest back across Baja California later today. Although the winds and thunderstorms continue to weaken, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall can occur today over northwestern mainland Mexico and central portions of Baja California. This additional rain combining with an already saturated ground will cause more life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Aside from Jimena, a tropical wave with a large area of disorganized thunderstorms is located around 725 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. This system continues to track off to the west-northwest around 10 mph. If this feature becomes better organized a tropical system could slowly develop in a few days. However, as long as it moves generally westward, it should stay well away from any land mass.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski



"Erika" has also dissipated to a remnant low and is not anticipated to re-energize further.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Erika a Remnant Low; Watching Another Wave
Last Update: 4-SEP-2009 06:48am EDT

The low pressure area that was once Erika is now located to the southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and continues to drift westward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Over the last few hours, satellite imagery has shown a deepening of showers and thunderstorms associated with this remnant low. These thunderstorms will produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall today and tonight across Puerto Rico, the northern Leeward Islands and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. However, the remnant low continues to push westward into an area of strong wind shear, so re-development in the next 12 to 24 hours is unlikely.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a strong tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa early Thursday is moving to the west around 10 to 15 mph. The wave is now located around 175 miles to the east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This tropical wave already has numerous showers and thunderstorms with it with a cyclonic motion in the cloud mass. This suggests slow development is possible during the next few days as it moves west into favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Tropical waves along 33 west south of 19 north and along 50 west south of 16 north remain weak with no signs of organized features.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Sep 08, 2009 2:50 pm  Reply with quote  

Out in the East Pacific the seasons 12th named storm has been officially given to Tropical Storm "Linda". This storm is not expected to become a threat to any land mass over the course of its life according to the expert reports. Still we will watch.....

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Linda
Last Update: 8-SEP-2009 06:27am EDT

Tropical Storm Linda continues to drift slowly west over the open Pacific. As of 2 a.m. PDT, Linda was located near 15.1 north, 128.4 west, or about 1,320 miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Linda has maximum-sustained winds of 60 mph and is tracking toward the west at 8 mph. Linda is very unlikely to threaten any land areas during her life span.

Linda has been steered toward the west by an upper-level ridge to the north. A weakness is developing in this ridge and it will essentially split into two pieces. Linda will turn in a more north to northwesterly direction in response to this weakness. Linda strengthened fairly quickly on Monday, but has since leveled off. The cloud pattern of Linda indicates that the storm is undergoing some southwesterly wind shear, but Linda could still strengthen over the next couple of days and become a minimal hurricane. By Thursday, a dip in the subtropical jet stream will develop just north of Linda. With Linda moving into colder waters and encountering considerable wind shear, the system is likely to weaken to a remnant low by day's end on Saturday.

The rest of the eastern Pacific Basin should remain quiet for at least the next 24 to 48 hours.

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Tarr


Out in the Atlantic, the season's 6th named storm has also officially earned the title "Tropical Storm Fred". This storm as well is predicted by the experts to be no apparent threat to land, all though they do suspect it will become a hurricane. Navy track maps presently have this one staying well out to sea heading north in the mid Atlantic...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Fred Strengthening in the Eastern Atlantic
Last Update: 8-SEP-2009 06:02am EDT

Tropical Storm Fred continues to strengthen this morning over the open waters of the eastern Atlantic and could become a hurricane on Wednesday or Thursday. At 5 a.m. EDT, Fred was located near 11.8 north, 27.3 west or about 285 miles to the southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Fred was moving westerly at 15 mph and maximum-sustained winds had increased to 50 mph with higher gusts. Fred is in an environment with warm ocean water temperatures and relatively light wind shear, and the satellite presentation of the storm became more impressive overnight, with considerable banding of clouds wrapping around the low-level circulation. Conditions are expected to remain favorable for development through Thursday, and Fred could reach hurricane strength on Wednesday or Thursday. Still, aside from some higher swells over the shores of the Cape Verde Islands, Fred will have no impacts on land.

Fred is being steered by a weak high pressure ridge to its north. As this feature weakens, Fred will turn more northwesterly and eventually northerly. This track will take the storm into an area with increasingly hostile conditions, in the form of moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures. As a result, Fred will begin to weaken late week into the weekend.

Elsewhere, we continue to monitor an area of low pressure near the mid-Atlantic coast. This system doused eastern North Carolina with as much as 10 inches of rain on Monday, causing widespread flooding in some of the state's coastal communities. A buoy off the Outer Banks was reporting sustained winds of 31 mph with gusts to 40 mph at 5 a.m. EDT; another buoy in Onslow Bay - located off the southeast coast of North Carolina - reported sustained winds of 25-35 mph throughout the day on Monday.

The surface winds around this storm may be strong enough for it to be classified as a tropical depression; however, the storm is only quasi-tropical in nature and may not gain tropical characteristics. Still, this system will have many of the same impacts along the coast that a minimal tropical storm would have - gusty winds, heavy rainfall and minor beach erosion and tidal flooding. The heavier rain from the storm will lift through the Delmarva Peninsula today, reaching parts of New Jersey today and tonight. Some downpours from the storm could reach as far north as Connecticut by Thursday.

Elsewhere, there are a few tropical waves noted across the Atlantic Basin, but none are showing signs of development at this time. A trough of low pressure lies over the Gulf of Mexico and there is no immediate threat for development, but some computer models do suggest an area of low pressure developing over the western Gulf on Friday or Saturday, so this area will need to be monitored closely.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Tarr
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Sep 09, 2009 4:03 pm  Reply with quote  

"Linda" remains hovering just below hurricane status, and experts predict it will not be a threat to any land areas as it progresses.


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Linda Nearly Stationary
Last Update: 9-SEP-2009 06:35am EDT

Tropical Storm Linda continues to drift very slowly over the open Pacific. As of 5 a.m. PDT, the storm was located near 15.8 north, 128.4 west or about 1,300 miles to the west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum-sustained winds remain at 65 mph, and Linda is crawling toward the north-northwest at around 2 mph. Linda is not expected to affect any land areas during her life span.

Linda is showing limited outflow on her western flank, but more extensive outflow to the northeast. This is indicative of some southwesterly shear across the system. Still, there is ample thunderstorm activity around the storm's center, and there is a slight chance that the shear relaxes enough for Linda to become a category 1 hurricane today. Overall however, there is little change in intensity expected over the next 24 hours. Linda's forward motion has been slowed as she runs into upper-level ridging to the north. This ridging is weakening and will essentially split into two parts. Linda will accelerate northward into the weakness later today into Thursday. This track will bring the system into colder waters and increasingly dry air and upper-level wind shear. By day's end on Friday, Linda may be a tropical depression, and nothing more than a remnant low this weekend.

Elsewhere in the east Pacific, there is a tropical wave along 105 west and south of 18 north. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development in the short term, but this system could show some tropical organization later this week. The rest of the eastern Pacific Basin should remain quiet for at least the next 24 to 48 hours.

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Tarr



Hurricane "Fred" is maintaining a CAT 3 classification presently, increasing in speed of over 55 mph in just 24 hours making it a major hurricane system. This storm is not predicted to affect any land areas as it is forecast to remain well out to sea over the course of its life. It is still an impressive system and warrants watching.



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Strengthening Fred No Threat to Land
Last Update: 9-SEP-2009 06:27am EDT

Fred continues to strengthen rapidly over the open waters of the eastern Atlantic, but fortunately poses no threat to land. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Fred was located near 13.2 north, 31.7 west or about 500 miles to the west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Fred is traveling west-northwest at 13 mph, and maximum-sustained winds have reached 105 mph with higher gusts. At 5 a.m. on Tuesday, Fred was assessed as having maximum-sustained winds of 50 mph, so the storm's winds have increased by about 55 mph in just 24 hours. Satellite images show that a distinct eye has developed, and there is good convective banding with strong poleward outflow. Fred remains in a regime of relatively warm water and light wind shear, so some slight additional strengthening is likely, and there is a chance that Fred could briefly become a major (category 3) hurricane. Still, Fred over open waters and, aside from sending some higher swells back toward the Cape Verde Islands, will have no impacts on land in the Atlantic Basin.

Fred's motion continues to be dictated by midlevel ridging to its north, but this ridge is weakening in response to an approaching low pressure trough. As a result, Fred has been turning in a more northwesterly direction over the past several hours, and as the ridge continues to weaken, Fred will end up plying a more northerly track. Fred is expected to remain a hurricane through at least midday on Friday, but Fred's northerly track will take him into stronger southwesterly wind shear and slightly cooler waters. Because of these factors, we are forecasting Fred to weaken to a tropical storm by Saturday. Fred will be slowing as steering currents become weak, but most of the model guidance suggests that another ridge will build to the north of Fred by day's end on Sunday, which could cause Fred to begin traveling west or northwest once again.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we continue to watch an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. This system has a minimum central pressure of about 1010 mb; between this feature and a 1029 mb high over Quebec there is a broad east to northeasterly flow. Because of this flow we will continue to see minor tidal flooding and beach erosion along the coast from southern New England down through the Delmarva Peninsula.

Most of this storm's rain will remain offshore or right along the coast today, but as the high pressure builds southeast, the low along the mid-Atlantic coast will back westward. Heavier rain may reach farther north and west as the low moves inland, affecting cities like New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Some of the heavy rain may drift as far west as the central Appalachians. Much of extreme eastern North Carolina saw flooding rainfall of anywhere from 3 to 10 inches on Monday, so even though this feature is unlikely to become a named storm, its impacts - flooding rainfall, beach erosion, tidal flooding, gusty winds - will be similar to those of a minimal tropical storm.

Otherwise, there are a couple of tropical waves noted across the Atlantic Basin, but none are any threat to develop over the next 48 hours. A trough of low pressure continues to lie over the Gulf of Mexico, and there are some indications that a surface low could form over the western Gulf in a few days. There is no threat for tropical development in the short term, but this area will need to be monitored late week into the weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Tarr
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starman1





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PostThu Sep 10, 2009 2:31 pm  Reply with quote  

"Fred" is now a CAT 2 class hurricane and appears to be remaining out in the open ocean away from land and is not expected to be a threat to any land areas according to expert reports.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Fred a Powerful Hurricane But in Open Waters
Last Update: 10-SEP-2009 06:12am EDT

Fred is not as organized as earlier, but it remains a powerful Category 2 hurricane. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Fred was located near 15.9 north, 34.6 west or about 705 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. Fred was traveling northwest near 12 mph, and maximum sustained winds were near 105 mph with higher gusts. Fred will remain over open waters of the eastern Atlantic and, aside from sending some higher swells toward the Cape Verde Islands, will have no impacts on land in the Atlantic Basin.

Fred's forward movement is being steered by an area of high pressure to the north. An upper-level system approaching from the west will force the high pressure area to weaken. This process is already starting to happen and, as a result, Fred is moving northwest. Fred is expected to remain a hurricane through at least midday on Friday, but Fred's northerly track will take him into stronger southwesterly wind shear, cooler water and drier air. Because of these factors, we are forecasting Fred to weaken to a tropical storm by Saturday. Fred will move slower this weekend as steering currents become weak. Some computer forecast information suggests that high pressure will build to the north of Fred toward the end of this weekend. This should steer Fred on a more northwesterly and perhaps westerly course Sunday night and Monday of next week. By then, Fred could become even weaker.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we continue to watch an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast near 37 north, 71 west. This system has a minimum central pressure of about 1011 millibars; between this feature and a 1034-millibar high over Maine, there is a broad northeasterly flow all the way into the mid-Atlantic coast. Because of this flow, we will continue to see increased tidal flooding and beach erosion along the coast from southern New England down through the Delmarva Peninsula through Friday night.

Heavy rain from this storm stayed mostly off the coast Wednesday. However, as the high pressure builds southeastward, the storm will move west then northwest toward the coast Thursday and Friday. Heavier rain from this storm will spread to the north and west, affecting cities like New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Some of the heavy rain may drift as far west as the central Appalachians. Even though this storm is unlikely to become a pure tropical storm, its impacts of flooding rainfall, beach erosion, tidal flooding and gusty winds will be similar to those of a minimal tropical storm.

Low pressure over deep South Texas is causing a large area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms over parts of southern and southeastern Texas. There is no threat for tropical development in the short term as long as the lowest pressure stays over land. However, if this low pressure re-develops along or off the Texas coast, and if shearing wind flow over this system diminishes, there might be some opportunity for tropical development. Computer forecasts are hinting at this possibility later Friday into Saturday.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker




"Linda" has reached hurricane strength as well out in the east pacific and is currently maintaining a CAT 1 classification, but is also not expected to affect any land areas during its lifetime.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Hurricane Linda in the Eastern Pacific
Last Update: 10-SEP-2009 05:42am EDT

Hurricane Linda is slowly moving northwest over the open waters of the eastern Pacific . As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Linda was located near 17.8 north, 129.6 west or about 1,325 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum-sustained winds are estimated near 80 mph, and Linda is moving toward the northwest at around 8 mph. Linda is not expected to affect any land areas during her life span.

Linda intensified during the day Wednesday. It was slow to move and therefore stayed over warm water and just to the east and south of shearing wind flow, so Linda strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. Recent satellite pictures have shown a less organized cloud structure with the eye disappearing at times. The overall clouds are elongated from south to north as the hurricane is feeling the affects of southerly shear aloft. An upper-level high pressure area to the north of Linda will weaken and move eastward while an upper-level trough moves to the northwest of Linda Thursday and Friday. This will cause the storm to track faster to the northwest then north. The combination of cooler water and increased shear will cause Linda to gradually weaken later Thursday night and Friday. This weakening process will occur at a faster pace over the weekend and Linda could become a non-tropical low pressure area on Sunday.

The rest of the eastern Pacific Basin should remain quiet through at least Friday.

AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker
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starman1





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PostFri Sep 11, 2009 2:18 pm  Reply with quote  

"Fred" is slowing down a bit now cruising at a CAT 1 classification, Navy track maps have it turning more westerly out in the mid Atlantic, although presently experts remain confident this storm will have no impact on any land areas.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

Out in the east pacific "Linda" has weakened as well and is no longer maintaining hurricane status. This system as well is expected to have no impact on any land areas.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
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starman1





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PostThu Sep 17, 2009 1:57 pm  Reply with quote  

At number 13 for the season out in the East Pacific, Tropical Storm "Marty" has developed, and presently this storm appears to have little in the way of any grand organization and therefore threat to any land areas according to expert reports, other than presenting heavy surf and rain to Baja California. Navy track maps have it moving away from the coastline heading out to sea, we will continue to observe what transpires as it progresses.


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Marty Off Baja California
Last Update: 17-SEP-2009 05:50am EDT

Tropical Storm Marty is moving over open waters off the west coast of Mexico. As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Marty was located near 19.7 north and 112.9 west, or about 295 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. This tropical storm is moving to the north-northwest at 5 mph. Maximum-sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. The convection with Tropical Storm Marty is encountering some wind shear, not allowing the storm to become better organized and strengthen. This shear will lessen on Thursday, which should allow Marty to strengthen. However, as Marty continues on a northwesterly track, it will encounter an increasingly hostile environment on Thursday night and Friday in the form of stronger southwesterly wind shear and cooler water temperatures. As a result, any strengthening will be brief with Marty and a gradual weakening trend is expected to take place later on Thursday into Friday as it takes a track parallel to the southern tip of Baja California, remaining offshore. Although Marty will likely weaken as it drifts northward, increased wave action and shower and thunderstorm activity may impact the southern tip of Baja California late on Thursday into Friday.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave located near 128 west, south of 15 north, has minimal and disorganized convection associated with it and tropical development is not expected over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker
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starman1





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PostFri Sep 18, 2009 2:06 pm  Reply with quote  

"Marty" still just a tropical storm is diminishing and is not expected to regain strength according to expert reports.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0


The Atlantic region remains unseasonably yet remarkably quiet for the moment... Shhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!
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starman1





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PostSat Sep 19, 2009 1:52 pm  Reply with quote  

"Marty" is now a tropical depression.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
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starman1





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PostWed Sep 23, 2009 1:53 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm "Nora" has earned its name as the seasons 14th named storm out in the East Pacific waters south of Baja California.
This storm is expected to gain in intensity but experts predict that will be short lived as it approaches less than favorable conditions to sustain its self.
Still on the watch.....


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Nora Named Off Baja California
Last Update: 23-SEP-2009 05:33am EDT

Tropical depression 17-E has become better organized and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nora. At 2 a.m. PDT, the center of Nora was located at 16.1 north and 116.7 west or about 645 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum-sustained winds have increased to 40 mph and the system is moving toward the northwest around 8 mph. For the next 24 hours Nora is moving through a favorable environment for some further strengthening as the wind shear is light and sea water temperatures are warm. However, there will not be a large window of time for the system to strengthen as it continues to churn northwestward into progressively cooler waters on Thursday and Friday. The wind pattern will also become less conducive for strengthening with an increase in wind shear. The system will not have any impact on land.

Elsewhere, several areas of convection can be found along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. However, none of these areas show signs of getting better organized; therefore, we do not expect any development elsewhere over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker
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starman1





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PostThu Sep 24, 2009 1:27 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm "Nora" did increase in strength however it did not reach hurricane status and is now believed to be decreasing in intensity and is forecast to continue to do so, presenting no threat to any land areas.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

The Atlantic region remains significantly quiet for now, and the experts report "we are still dealing with gnats" with respect to potential storm systems. Their choice of words is almost border line arrogant, seeming to temp the "powers that be" in charge of the weather...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
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starman1





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PostFri Oct 02, 2009 2:29 pm  Reply with quote  

Number 15 has arrived out in the East Pacific region, what is now Tropical Storm "Olaf" is spinning down below Baja California holding 40+ mph winds. This storm is not expected to maintain itself for much longer and is not forecast to be any threat at this point other than potential heavy rains to areas of Baja and potentially Mexico. We will be watching.........


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Olaf Churns in the Pacific
Last Update: 2-OCT-2009 08:42am EDT

As of 4:00 a.m. PDT the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near 22.5 north, 117.8 west or about 530 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Olaf was moving due north at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was estimated at 1002 millibars or 29.59 inches. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the storm's center mostly on the east side of the storm.

Satellite imagery showed Olaf with most of its deepest convection confined to the northern part of the semicircle. This was due to southerly wind shear which is affecting the storm. Over the past couple hours, the storm has continued to look less organized with wind shear continuing to be the primary impact. Olaf also appears to be entraining dry air which has also made the system appear less organized.

Olaf is expected to continue moving northward and then turn northeast over the next day. It will also move into increasingly cooler water. This system will likely weaken back to a depression sometime Saturday and could reach the southern Baja California Saturday night as a remnant low. Moisture from Olaf will bring showery rainfall over the central and southern Baja peninsula today and tonight. The moisture will bring heavier, perhaps flooding rainfall to the higher terrain of west central Mexico Saturday and perhaps on Sunday.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected through Saturday.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Ulrich


The Atlantic region remains remarkably quiet for this season so far.
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starman1





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PostMon Oct 05, 2009 3:15 pm  Reply with quote  

The latest system to form in the Atlantic region and to officially qualify as this seasons seventh named storm is cruising in the "far northeastern Atlantic" meet Tropical Storm "Grace". This storm has formed in an area this watcher has never seen a storm form in up in the north Atlantic, and the experts claim it may well become a hurricane before it is over, although they expect it to be a short lived event if it happens. It is a long way from any tropical waters; we will be looking at this one closely and listening to the explanations offered by the experts...


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Grace Strengthens Slightly
Last Update: 5-OCT-2009 06:01am EDT

Tropical Storm Grace formed in the far northeastern Atlantic late Sunday evening and continues to track northeastward at nearly 30 mph. This storm, as of 5 a.m. EDT, has sustained winds estimated at 70 mph with higher gusts. Grace is about 585 miles northeast of the Azores and is racing away into cooler waters. The storm is forecast to weaken Monday and will likely lose tropical characteristics later Monday night. There is, however, a small chance that Grace could become a hurricane before weakening, but this status would be very short-lived.

There are also several tropical waves we are watching that are churning across the Atlantic. The first of these waves is located near the northern Leeward Islands. Another wave is located along 58 west, south of 15 north. A third wave is located along 43 west, south of 15 north. All the waves are producing showers and thunderstorms but are fighting unfavorable shear so any development will be slow. The wave along 43 west is by far the largest of the three and may have the most potential to become more organized over the next day or two.

An upper-level low south of Jamaica is interacting with a tropical wave along 79 west and the result is numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. This wave is tracking west and should increase showers and thunderstorms over Central America the early to middle part of next week.

By AccuWeather Meteorologists Andy Mussoline and Randy Adkins
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