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Tropical Storm Hermine a Little Stronger, Targets Mexico...
Sept 6, 2010 7:54 AM

Tropical Storm Hermine continues to gain strength in the western Gulf of Mexico this morning. As of 7 a.m. CDT, Hermine was located at 22.4 north, 95.3 west -- some 225 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Maximum-sustained winds are now near 45 mph as the storm moves northward at roughly 10 mph. The minimum pressure was estimated to be 999 millibars, or 29.50 inches of mercury.

A tropical storm warning has been extended northward from the mouth of the Rio Grande River to Baffin Bay. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast of Mexico from Tampico north to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

Thunderstorms clustering near the center of this storm are becoming more widespread and rainbands are already pushing into deep South Texas. Waters are very warm over this part of the Gulf of Mexico and upper-level winds are favorable for strengthening as well. With this in mind, slow strengthening is forecast up until the time of landfall, sometime during the day on Tuesday.

Computer guidance is fairly well clustered with the eventual track of Hermine. The AccuWeather Eye Path forecast aligns with the model guidance and takes Hermine into far northeastern Mexico on Tuesday. Hermine will then track northwestward into South Texas on Tuesday night while weakening into a depression and then, eventually, a tropical rainstorm.

The primary concern for the depression's impacts will be excessive rainfall over northeastern Mexico and South Texas. Much of this region has already seen a considerable amount of rainfall in recent weeks and the Rio Grande remains at high levels in the wake of the flooding that occurred back in July. So excessive rainfall from a tropical cyclone has the potential to cause significant flooding in this area. Of course, if the depression ends up getting stronger than expected, high winds could cause damage in coastal areas of northeastern Mexico as well. Residents of northeastern Mexico should immediately make storm preparations, and residents of Deep South Texas should be prepared for flooding rain and gusty winds from this strengthening depression by Tuesday.

As for the remnants of Gaston, there is noticeably more thunderstorm activity as of this evening about 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands and conditions will generally be favorable for development over the next couple of days. So we may see a tropical depression develop essentially anytime through tomorrow, but at this point there are no indications for rapid development of this system. Nonetheless, heavy rain and gusty winds could affect the recently battered northern Leeward Islands as soon as Monday night.

Another strong tropical wave is over the Cape Verde Islands as of early Monday morning, but it is not showing signs of organizing into a depression over the next day or so. There is some chance for it to become a depression or storm later this week because waters in this area are warm and the upper-level winds are generally favorable.

Yet another strong tropical wave is poised to emerge from Africa by midweek, so it looks as though the Atlantic basin will remain fairly active through the first half of September.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins and Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait

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Hermine Weakening Over South Texas, But Flooding Threat to Continue

Sep 7, 2010 8:10 AM

Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall around 8:30 p.m. CDT on Monday on the Mexican coast around 40 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. Hermine had 65-mph sustained winds at landfall. As of 7 a.m. CDT, Hermine was located at 27.7 north, 98.2 west, or about 70 miles west of Corpus Christi, Texas. Maximum-sustained winds are 45 mph, and Hermine is now moving rapidly to the north-northwest at 17 mph. The minimum pressure is 995 millibars, or 29.38 inches of mercury.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Port O'Connor, Texas, southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The primary concern will shift from gusty winds to heavy rain across south and central Texas during the day on Tuesday. Much of the region has already seen a considerable amount of rainfall in recent months, and the Rio Grande remains at high levels in the wake of the flooding that occurred back in July. So excessive rainfall from a tropical cyclone like Hermine has the potential to cause significant flooding in this area. Of course, high winds can also cause some damage across South Texas before the storm weakens to a depression later on Tuesday. Residents in southern and central Texas should be prepared for flooding rainfall, gusty winds and possibly even isolated tornadoes.

Tropical Storm Hermine will slowly weaken as she moves through the lower Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday morning before moving toward the Hill Country of Texas later on Tuesday. Flooding rain will spread farther north across south and central Texas on Tuesday night before reaching Oklahoma on Wednesday. The storm will eventually turn to the northeast, bringing the threat of flooding rain to eastern Kansas and Missouri on Wednesday and Thursday.

As for Gaston, thunderstorms have tried to increase, but dry air continues to be involved and is the main issue causing the system to struggle to intensify. Once Gaston can overcome the dry air, the system will likely become a tropical depression again, but at this point there are no indications rapid development is likely. Nonetheless, some downpours and gusty winds should affect the recently battered northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday.

Another strong tropical wave is located near the Cape Verde Islands, but it is not showing any immediate signs of organizing into a tropical depression. There is some chance for it to become a depression or storm later this week because waters in this area are warm and the upper-level winds are generally favorable.

Another strong tropical wave is poised to emerge from Africa toward midweek, so it looks as though the Atlantic basin will remain quite active.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak

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Igor Still a Major Hurricane, Tropical Storm Julia Emerges
Sep 13, 2010 7:57 AM



At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Igor continues to intensify as maximum-sustained winds are now at 150 mph with gusts to 185 mph. This makes Igor a strong Category 4 major hurricane. The center of Igor was about 940 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, near 17.7 north and 48.8 west. The minimum central pressure has decreased to 935 millibars, or 27.61 inches of mercury.

Recent satellite images show that deep thunderstorm activity is wrapping around the eye of Igor, which, along with a healthy outflow around the storm, is a sign of intensification. Major Hurricane Igor will continue off to the west or west-northwest toward the central Atlantic through midweek, passing to the north of the Leeward Islands. An upper trough moving across the northwestern Atlantic around midweek will steer Igor more to the northwest, but the upper trough will probably miss the connection with Igor, allowing the hurricane to resume a track the the west-northwest later this week. All interests along the East Coast and across the Bahamas and Bermuda should definitely monitor the progress of Igor.

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Julia was located near 14.5 north and 25.6 west or about 85 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. It has sustained winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1004 millibars or 29.65 inches. Julia is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southern Cape Verde Islands. Julia is fighting easterly shear, but it will eventually move out of the area of shear it is experiencing now as it tracks to the west-northwest today, then northwest toward the central Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. As it moves away from the area of shear it is encountering now, it may intensify into a hurricane by the middle of the week. It will cause heavy rain and gusty winds over the Cape Verde Islands today.

A tropical wave south of Hispaniola continues to become better organized and could become a tropical depression over the next day or two. Deep warm waters over the western Caribbean could add fuel to this feature and if it gets a well defined center of circulation before reaching these waters, it could strengthen rapidly before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards.

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Tropical Storm Karl Nears Yucatan Peninsula, Major Hurricanes Igor and Julia
Sep 15, 2010 2:08 AM



Igor continues to strengthen as it tracks across the Southern Atlantic. The storm is a powerful Category 4 hurricane at this time. As of 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Igor was centered near 19.0 north, 53.9 west, or about 1,140 miles southeast of Bermuda. Its maximum sustained winds have increased to 155 mph, with gusts to 190 mph. The minimum central pressure was down to 925 millibars, or 27.32 inches.

Igor continues to churn over very warm waters and through an environment where wind shear is absent. Thus, Igor should continue to maintain its Category 4 strength over the next 24 to 36 hours with only minor fluctuations in its intensity from time to time due to eye wall replacement cycles. There is a slight chance that Igor could reach Category 5 intensity for a brief period of time during the day Wednesday.

Igor will bring large swells and rip currents to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday as it passes by to the north of the Leeward Islands. However, a storm system set to emerge from the East Coast of the United States will cause Igor to curve more to the north by the upcoming weekend. This will steer Igor close to Bermuda with potentially life-threatening impacts beginning Saturday.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Julia has intensified rapidly over the past several hours and is now a major hurricane. As of 2 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Julia was centered near 16.7 north, 31.3 west, or about 490 miles west of the southernmost of the Cape Verde Islands. Julia had maximum sustained winds up to 125 mph with a minimum central pressure of 955 millibars, or 28.20 inches.

Julia will be tracking over a zone of warm waters and low shear over the next 24 to 36 hours, so some additional strengthening can occur. However, by late this week, Julia will begin to track over slightly cooler waters and will eventually begin to be impacted by higher wind shear over the weekend. This would cause Julia to weaken gradually, and the system would likely be downgraded to a tropical storm by Saturday night or Sunday morning. Over the next four to five days, Julia will maintain a general northwest or west-northwest motion, which will continue to steer the storm away from any land masses.

Tropical Storm Karl has formed from the low that was churning across the northwestern Caribbean. As of 2 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Karl was centered at 18.6 north, 86.0 west, or about 150 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico. Movement was to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Karl had sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 999 millibars, or 29.50 inches. A tropical storm warning is in effect along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche. A tropical storm watch is in effect along the coast of northern Belize from Belize City to the Mexico/Belize border. Heavy rain and flash flooding are the main threats from Karl with 3-5 inches of rain expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Guatemala over the next 24-36 hours. Local amounts of 8 inches are possible.

After crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, and perhaps weakening to a depression, Karl will move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and should begin to intensify again before reaching the mainland of Mexico later Friday or Friday night. Karl can reach hurricane intensity just prior to landfall in northeastern Mexico late Friday night or Saturday morning.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak.

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Major Hurricane Karl Nears Mexican Coast, Igor Looks Northward to Bermuda
Sep 17, 2010 9:20 AM



As of 8 a.m. EDT Friday, Karl was centered at 19.6 north and 95.6 west, or about 50 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Movement was to the west at 9 mph. Karl's sustained winds were 120 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 956 millibars, or 28.23 inches. Currently a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, some additional strengthening is expected before Karl makes landfall on the Mexican coast just south of Tampico today. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Mexican coast from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo. A hurricane watch is in effect from north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz. A tropical storm warning is in effect from south of Veracruz to Cabo Punta El Lagarto and north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz. Heavy rain from Karl will prompt widespread flash flooding and mudslides across central Mexico today through the weekend. Damaging winds and coastal flooding from storm surge will affect the central Mexican coast today and tonight. Storm surge from this system could reach 8-10 feet above normal tide level. Total rainfall accumulations from this system will range from 5-10 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible for the interior mountains of central Mexico.

As of 8 a.m. EDT Friday, Igor remains a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and gusts to 150 mph. Igor was centered near 22.7 north and 59.8 west, or about 730 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, moving to the northwest at close to 9 mph. The minimum central pressure is 940 millibars, or 27.76 inches.

Igor continues to churn over warm waters, and although experiencing light westerly wind shear, an increase to a Category 4 hurricane is expected during the next 24 hours. Minor fluctuations in its intensity are expected due to eye wall replacement cycles.

Igor will continue to bring large swells and rip currents to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands for the next 12-24 hours. A storm system set to emerge from the East Coast of the United States will eventually cause Igor to curve more to the north this weekend, and then northeast early next week. This will steer Igor close to Bermuda, with potentially life-threatening impacts there on Sunday. Rough surf and rip currents from Igor will build along the East Coast of the United States Friday and continue at least through the weekend.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Julia is racing west-northwest at 24 mph through the tropical Atlantic. As of 5 a.m. EDT Friday, Julia was centered near 23.8 north and 45.1 west, or about 1,450 miles southwest of the Azores. Julia had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 981 millibars, or 28.97 inches.

Julia continues to encounter upper-level, southerly shear from an upper-level low pressure area to its southwest created by outflow from Igor. Eventually, the track will take this hurricane over cooler surface waters as well. The combination of continuing shear and cooler waters will gradually weaken Julia even more, likely diminishing to a tropical storm tonight while taking a more northward, and eventually northeastward, turn. The anticipated track of Julia will continue to keep the system away from any land masses.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney.

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