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2012 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Sep 15, 2012 3:40 pm  Reply with quote  

"Nadine" has become a CAT 1 Hurricane out in the open Atlantic but it is not expected to impact any land masses as a Hurricane. It may affect the Azores as a Tropical Storm according to expert reports.


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash






http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Nadine a Hurricane in the Open Atlantic
Sep 15, 2012 11:05 AM
Nadine strengthened to a weak hurricane Friday evening and is spinning over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean about 880 miles east of Bermuda. Nadine is tracking east-northeastward now at 15 mph. Recent satellite imagery suggests that the storm's structure has changed little except that the storm's center has become more vertically stacked, improving just enough hint at slight strengthening from Friday afternoon. It appears that the wind shear around Nadine has weakened a bit and should lessen more over the next 36 hours. With warm enough water temperatures to sustain a tropical system, Nadine can strengthen a little bit. However at the same time, an upper-level trough approaching from the west will steer Nadine toward a more easterly direction this weekend, and this path will keep the storm well removed from any land masses through Tuesday. By that time it will move toward cooler waters and shear will begin to increase again. By Wednesday night, Nadine will threaten the Azores Islands as a strong tropical storm, weakening in response to the increasing shear and cooler waters. Outside of Nadine, there is an area of low pressure located about 700 miles to the east of the Windward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms around this low pressure system have increased in coverage and intensity. However, the system will move into an area of stronger wind shear as it approaches the Leeward Islands, and that should limit the potential for further organization over the next few days. By AccuWeather Meteorologist Mark Paquette




"Kristie" has begun to dissipate out in the East Pacific.....
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Sep 18, 2012 1:40 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Lane" has qualified as a CAT 1 class storm out in the East Pacific but is not presently expected to impact any land areas.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


"Nadine" remains out in the open Atlantic nearing the Azores but it is no longer a Hurricane...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Sep 23, 2012 1:52 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm "Miriam" has formed in the East Pacific waters off the west coast of Mexico. The storm is expected to intensify but as yet the direction of the system is presently undetermined.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Miriam Forms in the East Pacific

Sep 23, 2012 5:49 AM

Tropical Storm Miriam has formed in the Eastern Pacific and is now roughly 560 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California right now and is tracking off to the west-northwest around 8 mph. Current satellite imagery shows Miriam becoming better organized and should continue to strengthen in the next 12-24 hours.

As Miriam continues to track off to the west-northwest over the next few days, it will be moving through a zone of warm waters and low wind shear. These conditions are conducive for tropical development and should allow the system to eventually become a hurricane by Sunday evening.

By the middle of next week, Miriam is expected to take a more northward turn, and this will eventually take the system into cooler waters by next Wednesday and then Miriam should begin to weaken.

Miriam will not impact land over the next five days on its projected path. However, some long-range computer forecast models do hint that by late next week, moisture from Miriam may be pulled northward or northeastward into central Baja California, northwestern Mexico and possibly even the southwestern United States.

Elsewhere across the East Pacific Basin, we do not anticipate any tropical development in the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowsk


"Nadine" is still an active system out in the Atlantic but is presently not threatening any land, although it is suggested to be entering more favorable conditions for redevelopment.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Sep 24, 2012 2:29 pm  Reply with quote  

"Miriam" has achieved CAT 2 Hurricane classification presently off Mexico's west coast. The storm is forecast to intensify further possibly reaching Major classification soon, but is expected to weaken slightly before going ___? Presently Navy track maps suggest somewhere along the coast of Baja.


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=vis&coverage=nh&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Miriam Continues to Strengthen

Sep 24, 2012 9:26 AM

Hurricane Miriam is about 150 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California with winds currently at 105 mph. The storm is moving to the northwest at 13 mph. Satellite imagery shows Miriam rapidly intensifying with cold cloud tops wrapping tightly around the center of the storm. It is likely that Miriam is currently a Category 2 hurricane.

The storm will push north to northwest over the next few days, paralleling the coastline of Baja California. The water temperatures are quite warm and the wind shear will remain low, allowing the storm to continue to strengthen the next few days. Miriam could even become a major hurricane in the next several days.

Moisture from Miriam will push into southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Clouds and some thunderstorms will begin to push into portions of Arizona, southeastern California and even New Mexico and Texas by late this week. Any of these thunderstorms can bring drenching rainfall and flash flooding beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend.

Though Miriam will begin to weaken by Wednesday, the storm looks to be a problem with where it will go after that. The models continue to differ on where it goes, with some pushing it out to sea, with others showing it pushing into the Southwest. It appears however, that Miriam will track towards the southern tip of Baja California by late this week. If the remaining circulation pushes into the Southwest, much more moisture will move in with it, bringing some much-cooler temperatures and even more threat for flash flooding.

Elsewhere across the East Pacific Basin, we do not anticipate any tropical development in the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist DJ Hoffman
Updated By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey




"Nadine" was able to regain Tropical Storm classification out in the open Atlantic, and may become "the storm that wouldn't go away" as it has lost Tropical status for now yet it is forecast to potentially reach Hurricane status again...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Sep 26, 2012 2:15 pm  Reply with quote  

"Miriam" has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm and is forecast to continue to diminish in intensity out in the East Pacific. The projected track map now has the center of the storm staying out in the Pacific away from land, but remnants of the system are moving inland presently as is visible on satellite imagery..


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=vis&coverage=nh&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Miriam Now a Tropical Storm

Sep 26, 2012 5:27 AM

Miriam has now become a tropical storm this morning and will continue to weaken over the next several days.

While Miriam will produce rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the southern and western coasts of the Baja Peninsula throughout the week, moisture from the storm will not begin to arrive on the peninsula until Thursday or Friday, eventually pushing into southwestern Mexico. Clouds and some thunderstorms are then expected to push into parts of Arizona and southeastern California into the weekend. Any of these thunderstorms can bring drenching rainfall and flash flooding.

Miriam will weaken rapidly starting on Thursday as wind shear increases in association with a strong closed upper-level low that will reside to the northwest of the storm. In fact, Miriam may not even retain tropical status as it makes landfall over the Baja Peninsula.

Elsewhere across the East Pacific Basin, an area of showers and thunderstorms south of Acapulco, Mexico, has a very slight chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 24 to 48 hours. The area is currently in an environment full of wind shear and should not develop into an organized system.

By Meteorologist Rob Richards











"Nadine" continues to snake its way about refusing to quit as it dances out in the open Atlantic waters. Presently it poses no threat to any land areas but it has not given up just yet.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



quote:

Nadine Fights On

Sep 26, 2012 5:23 AM

Nadine is not too impressive on the satellite imagery this morning, with some convection on the outside of the center, but its minimal. Nadine will meander south-southwest over the next day or so before gradually turning more northerly over the open waters of the north-central Atlantic later this week and weekend. Generally light wind shear and warmer water will be in Nadine next several days which could lead to better organization. Despite the potential for strengthening, no impact to land will occur through the weekend. There is a chance the Azores get some gusty winds or rain next week depending on exactly how an upper trough interacts with Nadine.

Elsewhere across the basin, there are no significant interests of possible development.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Sep 28, 2012 2:44 pm  Reply with quote  

New system named in the East Pacific, Tropical Storm "Norman". This system is skirting the Mexican coastline dumping tons of rain as it moves inland and though it is not expected to reach Hurricane strength the rains and winds do pose threats to those in harms way...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=vis&coverage=nh&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Norman Forms Near Mexico; Miriam a Remnant Low
Sep 28, 2012 10:31 AM

The area of low pressure just off the west coast of Mexico has become Tropical Storm Norman. Norman is located west of Mazatlan, just east-southeast of the tip of Baja California. Norman is moving northward and is expected to continue this motion, making landfall along the west coast of Mexico tonight. The storm is currently bringing locally heavy rain along the west coast of Mexico, and the main impact from Norman will be heavy rain and flooding. Rainfall of 4-8 inches today through Saturday will result in flash flooding and mudslides in the states of Sinaloa and western Durango. There will also be tropical storm force wind in this area today and tonight. Once the storm makes landfall it will weaken, but moisture from the system will stream northeastward across northern Mexico and into Texas. This will contribute to widespread showers and thunderstorms across Texas Saturday into Sunday with flash flooding possible.

Meanwhile, Miriam continues to lose strength in the eastern Pacific and is now a remnant post-tropical cyclone located about 440 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite imagery show almost no convection associated with Miriam. However, Miriam will continue to produce rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the southern and western coasts of Baja California but will gradually subside over the next 12-24 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer




"Nadine" is once again a Tropical Storm out in the open Atlantic and may potentially reach Hurricane classification again but it is not expected to threaten any land areas, although the Azores may expect some residuals again from the storm that wouldn't die.....




http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Sep 29, 2012 2:06 pm  Reply with quote  

"Nadine" was able to regain Hurricane classification, and is also being called a "Zombie Storm" in that it just refuses to die out in the Atlantic...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nadine-yet-another-zombie-stor/80738
quote:

Nadine, Yet Another Zombie Storm

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
September 29, 2012; 7:30 AM



Nadine is a storm that came back to life and just won't die over the Central Atlantic.

The reborn tropical system has become a hurricane once again as of Friday, Sept. 28, 2012.

Nadine, or the circulation from Nadine, formed the same day of the Sept. 11, 2012, attacks on the United States embassy in Cairo, Egypt, and the consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

Nadine was first named a tropical storm on Sept. 12, the day after a circulation was acknowledged.

Nadine has certainly had its ups and downs since then. After becoming a hurricane for the first time on Sept. 15, it transitioned to non-tropical system on Sept. 21. On Sept. 24, the system regained tropical status.

The system has almost completed a large loop over the Central Atlantic, and it is possible that it will swing close enough to bother the Azores all over again next week.

As of Sept. 28, Nadine has been a tropical depression or stronger for approximately 16 days.

The longest-lived tropical cyclone (a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane) in the Atlantic Basin on record is Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 with a lifespan of 28 days. Hurricane Ginger of 1971 was a close second with 27.25 days.

San Ciriaco, like Nadine, also had a period of where it was not considered to be a tropical system and then regenerated. However, it is Ginger that has the Atlantic consecutive-day record.

1994's John in the Pacific holds the global upper hand with a tropical cyclone duration record of 31 days. John wandered the northeast and northwest Pacific basins exchanging hurricane/typhoon designations.

Nadine is not likely to break Ginger's or San Ciriaco's records or to survive until Halloween.

Meteorologists in the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expect Nadine to be absorbed and torn up by a non-tropical storm system, projected to move over the North Atlantic later next week. Prior to this, squalls and rough seas may again visit the Azores next week as Nadine begins a northward turn.

Only if Nadine were to continue wandering south through next week would it avoid being caught up in the North Atlantic storm's circulation.

Nadine is considered to be a Cape Verde system as it had its origins near the group of islands by the same name, just off the west coast of Africa.



The East Pacific storms have moved inland and begun to subside.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
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PostSun Sep 30, 2012 1:54 pm  Reply with quote  

"Nadine" is presently a CAT 1 Hurricane again, reportedly trapped out in the open Atlantic.



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Oct 03, 2012 1:49 pm  Reply with quote  

"Nadine" is still making history & is now returning to the Azores, no longer a Hurricane but delivering a second round of Tropical Storm "conditions" to the islands...



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Nadine to Impact the Azores Tonight; Another Area on the Verge of Becoming a Depression

Oct 3, 2012 5:25 AM

Nadine, now moving east will turn to the northeast on Wednesday night and start to accelerate. On its present track, Nadine will bring tropical storm conditions across the Azores late on Wednesday into Thursday. Nadine will gradually encounter more shear and cooler sea surface temperatures as it moves toward and through the Azores. Both of these will aid in slow weakening over the next couple of days. After passing the Azores, Nadine will gradually lose its tropical characteristics by the end of the week and weekend.

Aside from Nadine, we are carefully monitoring an area of low pressure around 1,000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery shows this area is becoming well organized and should become a tropical depression within the next 12 to 24 hours and likely will eventually become Tropical Storm Oscar. The steering flow is such that this system will eventually turn northwestward and then northward. This path would keep this tropical system well east of Bermuda and the Lesser Antilles.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected within the next 24 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Oct 04, 2012 2:16 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm "Oscar" has formed in the Atlantic & is presently not a threat to any land areas, and it appears that "Nadine" is finally about to call it quits as it passes the Azores moving east holding the title of "fourth longest-lived tropical cyclone on record for the Atlantic Basin"...




http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Nadine Crossing the Azores; Tropical Storm Oscar Not Affecting Land
Oct 4, 2012 6:27 AM

Tropical Storm Oscar is moving slightly west of north as of Thursday morning at a forward speed of around 10 mph. Oscar is over the open waters of the central Atlantic right now with the center of the storm over 1200 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery shows that a cluster of deep thunderstorms associated with Oscar is displaced well to the east of the low-level center due to west to southwest wind shear. Oscar will continue to move northward and then eventually northeastward over the next day or two into an area of increasing wind shear. This environment will prevent Oscar from strengthening all that much over the next day or two and eventually the system should dissipate by this weekend well south and southeast of the Azores. Thus, we do not expect Oscar to impact any land masses during its life as a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Nadine is tracking across the Azores on Thursday morning and will complete its transition to a post-tropical or non-tropical low pressure area in the next 12 hours or so as it becomes absorbed into a much larger mid-latitude low pressure center off to its northwest. As Nadine moves through the Azores over the next few hours, it will bring some rain squalls accompanied by tropical storm force wind gusts. In addition, rough surf and higher waves will occur over the next day or so across much of the Azores. Nadine is now the fourth longest-lived tropical cyclone on record for the Atlantic Basin as the first advisory for Nadine (Tropical Depression 14 at the time) was issued at 11 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, Sept. 11.

Aside from Oscar and Nadine, there are a couple other areas we are watching across the Atlantic Basin at this time. The first is a tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles right now. Satellite imagery shows a broken area of showers and thunderstorms in association with this feature. This wave will move into the eastern Caribbean over the next day or so, but further development seems unlikely as it will be moving into a zone of moderate southwesterly wind shear. Another area we are monitoring is a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa. This wave may become the 36th tropical wave of the season as it moves across the waters of the far eastern Atlantic.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected within the next 24 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Oct 07, 2012 2:30 pm  Reply with quote  

New system named in the East Pacific, "Olivia". This system is presently not threatening any land areas...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Olivia Grows Stronger

Oct 7, 2012 5:55 AM

Tropical Storm Olivia has become a little stronger overnight. Olivia is located about 930 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California with sustained winds of 60 mph and moving west-northwest at 8 mph. Tropical Storm Olivia will gradually strengthen over the next 24 hours and briefly become a hurricane tonight before then weakening back to a tropical storm on Monday as it moves over cooler waters. Olivia will likely dissipate into a remnant low pressure area by the middle of next week. Elsewhere across the East Pacific Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours. By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney

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starman1





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Posts: 1583
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PostFri Oct 12, 2012 1:24 pm  Reply with quote  

New system named in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm "Patty". Presently, not a threat to any land areas this system is meandering out in the open Atlantic but is turning around and is projected to move further southwest of its present position according to current Navy track maps...




http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash







http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Patty Remains East of the Bahamas; Low Pressure Near Windward Islands Could Be a Depression Soon
Oct 12, 2012 8:55 AM

Tropical Storm Patty is roughly 230 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas as of Friday morning EDT. While there is strong convection associated with this system, most of the thunderstorms have been displaced well north and east of the center due to strong southwesterly wind shear (strong upper-level winds aloft). Persistent wind shear over the next few days should prevent strengthening and may actually shred the storm apart by the end of the weekend.

The storm is nearly stationary and is expected to remain in a similar location for the next 12 to 24 hours. By tomorrow, Patty should begin a more pronounced move to the southwest. Due to the aforementioned wind shear, the strongest convection should remain north and east of the Bahamas while the lower-level feature will move into the southern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday and bring only a few showers and some gusty winds. The real robust part of the storm will remain east and northeast of the Bahamas. Still though, Patty can remain a tropical storm at least through tomorrow.

The other area of low pressure just east of the Windward Islands continues to look better organized Friday morning. Satellite imagery continues to show a deepening of thunderstorms associated with this disturbance over the last four to six hours. It is possible for this system to become a tropical depression later today or this weekend as it tracks northwestward. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate this system further this afternoon to measure its wind speed, pressure and attempt to find a well-defined low-level center of circulation.

Regardless of whether this system develops, it will bring squally weather and bouts of heavy rainfall to the Windward and Leeward Islands later today through this weekend. Thereafter, the area of disturbed weather should move northward toward Bermuda and could bring stormy weather to the island during the early part of next week. By that point, there is a good chance the system will be a tropical storm. The next name on the 2012 list for the Atlantic Basin is Rafael. By midweek, a trough moving off the East Coast should scoop up this system and sling it northeastward.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Dan DePodwin and updated by Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski









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starman1





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PostSat Oct 13, 2012 2:28 pm  Reply with quote  

"Rafael" has earned Tropical Storm classification as it moves into the Caribbean waters, it is forecast to track north back out into the Atlantic and presently is predicted to stay off the U.S. east coast.
"Patty" is now classed a Tropical Depression and is presently not considered a threat where it sits to the east of the Bahamas.



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash




http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Tropical Storm Rafael Advances; Tropical Depression Patty Lingers

Oct 13, 2012 1:53 AM


Tropical Storm Rafael continues to push northwestward through the eastern Caribbean Sea overnight. Rafael is sporting 40 mph sustained winds, wind some higher gusts, making it a minimal tropical storm. However, Rafael will strengthen over the next few days as it moves off to the north and eventually to the northeast across the western Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect for Puerto Rico, Culebra and Vieques. Tropical Storm warnings are out for the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maartin, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, marie Galante, Martinique and St. Lucia.

Most of the deep convection with the storm are well off to the east, and it looks like there is a large area of dry air off to the southwest that has brought some dry air towards the center of the storm. There will be some slow strengthening as the storm does get a bit more convection over the western side of the storm, but southwest wind shear will continue to hinder the storm as it pushes to the north. Rafael will bring squally weather and bouts of heavy rainfall to the Windward and Leeward Islands overnight and through the weekend. Thereafter, Rafael is expected to move northward toward Bermuda and could bring stormy weather to the island during the early part of next week. By that point, there is a good chance that this system will be a stronger tropical storm and possibly even a hurricane. Looking further down the road towards the middle and latter part of next week, a trough moving off the East Coast should catch up to this storm and accelerate it northeastward.

Patty remains tropical depression east-northeast of the central Bahamas tonight. Satellite imagery shows limited convection with Patty and the low level center remains partially exposed. All the convection associated with Patty is being blown off to the northeast of the storm thanks to strong southwesterly wind shear.

The storm is nearly stationary and is expected to remain in a similar location overnight. On Saturday, the low level circulation associated with Patty should begin a more pronounced drift to the southwest. Due to the aforementioned wind shear, the strongest convection will remain north and east of the Bahamas. A few showers and some gusty winds are expected across the central and southern Bahamas this weekend as what is left of Patty moves through; however, nothing out of the ordinary is expected for this time of the year. The most robust convection will remain east and northeast of the Bahamas.
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starman1





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PostMon Oct 15, 2012 1:58 pm  Reply with quote  

New system formed in the East Pacific and has already become Hurricane "Paul". Presently, "Paul" is maintaining a CAT 1 status and is forecast to come close to the Baja coast, still to many variables for the experts to make an accurate call...




http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?





http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Paul Has Become a Hurricane

Oct 15, 2012 6:17 AM

Paul has become a hurricane this morning. Paul is currently moving north as it progresses around a midlevel ridge of high pressure. This ridge will shift southeastward over the next couple of days. This will cause Paul to slow down today. This track would eventually take Paul very close to a landfall along the western tip of Baja California by Wednesday of this week. Paul is in an area conducive for strengthening over the next 24-48 hours, but wind shear will increase over the system towards midweek and it will enter cooler waters. Another scenario is that Paul becomes impacted by an upper-level low forecast to develop during the middle of next week. This low, which will form to the north and west of Paul, could steer the system away from Baja California before it would make landfall. Regardless of development or impacts on Baja California, Paul will produce dangerous swells and life-threatening rip currents along the coast of Baja California by tomorrow night. Elsewhere, the Pacific Basin is void of tropical systems or other areas of potential development. By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards





"Rafael" is nearing Hurricane classification out in the Atlantic now and is forecast to bring storm conditions near Bermuda but is not expected to make a direct hit on the island...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Tropical Storm Rafael Nearing Hurricane Strength; Bermuda Next

Oct 15, 2012 6:14 AM

Tropical Storm Rafael continues to push northward as it leaves the Caribbean behind and moves into the western Atlantic.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible today despite the wind shear persisting and Rafael may attain hurricane status during the day.

Rafael is expected to continue moving northward toward Bermuda and could bring stormy weather to the island on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of the storm will probably pass a bit to the east of Bermuda by Tuesday night, taking the heaviest weather away from the island. Nevertheless, squally showers with gusts to tropical storm force may affect Bermuda as Rafael passes.

A trough moving off the East Coast should accelerate Rafael northeastward past Bermuda before bringing the storm nearby to the east of Newfoundland on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Swells generated by Rafael are going to affect eastern-facing beaches in the Bahamas over the next couple of days. Life-threatening rip currents are also a possibility.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, there are no organized features and no additional tropical development is expected over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards.

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starman1





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PostWed Oct 17, 2012 2:46 pm  Reply with quote  

After reaching Major Hurricane classification yesterday achieving a CAT 3 status, what was Hurricane "Paul" is now once again a Tropical Storm skirting the coast of Baja... It is expected to continue to diminish as it moves away from the coast into colder waters where it is forecast to die out...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=vis&coverage=nh&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Paul Weakens, Remains a Tropical Storm

Oct 17, 2012 7:01 AM

Paul continues to quickly weaken as it is along the western coast of Baja California. Paul is interacting with higher terrain over the Baja and this is disrupting the wind flow around the storm center. This disruption will continue to cause Paul to unravel and weaken quickly. Paul will become a depression today, then a remnant low tomorrow. The weakening tropical cyclone will curve northwestward and move back over the Pacific this afternoon. This will place the storm over much cooler water which will effectively keep Paul from restrengthening.

Paul is producing dangerous swells and life-threatening rip currents along the coast of Baja California. Rainfall will reach 2-4 inches, with locally 8 inches across Baja California, which could result in flash flooding. Since the tropical cyclone is weakening, damaging winds will diminish rapidly as well.


Elsewhere, the Eastern Pacific Basin is void of tropical systems or other areas of potential development.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Senior Meteorologist Mike Pigott and Meteorologist DJ Hoffman.




Hurricane "Rafael" is holding CAT 1 status as it moves north of Bermuda, where it is forecast to weaken & combine with "an upper level storm" over the North Atlantic.....


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Rafael Still a Category 1, But Moving Rapidly Away From Bermuda
Oct 17, 2012 7:07 AM

Rafael remains a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph roughly 350 miles northeast of Bermuda. Satellite images suggest the hurricane is starting to weaken. Those images show cloud tops warming and the convection is being sheared away from the center of circulation. These two factors show signs that Rafael is weakening tonight.

Hurricane Rafael will continue moving away from Bermuda today and will take the rain with it.

The hurricane will track over cooler water today. This, combined with increased southwest shear will cause the storm to weaken more quickly. Eventually this system will interact with a cold front approaching from the west and the whole system will transition into a non-tropical storm system. This will combine with an upper-level storm by the end of the week. This resultant storm should be a very powerful feature over the North Atlantic.

Meanwhile, two tropical waves are moving west causing clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the south-central North Atlantic. But we are not expecting any organization with either wave. In the longer range, an area of low pressure will slowly form over the southern Caribbean next week. Computer forecasts suggest this area of low pressure might become an organized tropical system toward the end of next week. So once Rafael fades into the history weather books, another storm could be on the horizon toward the end of next week.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and updated by Meteorologists DJ Hoffman and Mark Paquette





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