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The real U.S. unemployment rate

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Joined: 14 Jul 2003
Posts: 3694
The real U.S. unemployment rate PostSat Sep 04, 2004 10:00 pm  Reply with quote

In his Sep. 4, 2004 radio address, Bush is touting:
This past week we learned that we added 144,000 new jobs in August, and nearly 60,000 more jobs in June and July than previously estimated. Overall, we've added about 1.7 million new jobs since last August. And the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.4 percent, nearly a full point below the peak last summer, and lower than the average rate of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Our nation is proud of all our workers, and on this Labor Day Weekend, we say thank you.
Because of this, we must recall the issue of cooking the unemployment books raised in the Aug. 1, 2003 story Real U.S. unemployment rate is 10.5%.

There are six different measures currently used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The one put forth as the "official unemployment rate" by the BLS -- and thus the one cited by the media -- is known as U-3. However, the most inclusive BLS figures is known as U-6, and is defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
[...] Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

In other words U-6 captures both unemployment and underemployment (e.g. settling for a job at Wal-Mart). The U-6 number for August, 2004 is 9.5%, the same as for July, 2004.

How then did the official unemployment figure U-3 go down from 5.5% to 5.4% while U-6 was unchanged? The answer is in the main BLS press release.

About 152,000 people just gave up looking for jobs (change in "Civilian labor force").

So if we follow this trend that Bush touts to its logical conclusion, everyone will eventually give up looking for jobs and the official U-3 unemployment rate will be 0%. Nirvana.
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Joined: 06 Jun 2001
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Location: THE 4th REICH USA
PostSat Sep 04, 2004 10:48 pm  Reply with quote  

I went to the hardware store today...across the street is the city's food pantry and flophouse for the homeless and poor.

It was packed with people.

Really pissed me off.

Thanks BUSH.

Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad
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increase 1776

Joined: 07 Oct 2000
Posts: 3097
Location: Bizzaro World
PostSat Sep 04, 2004 11:37 pm  Reply with quote  

Can we spell Enron.Also a thank you to you Kennyboy.
"The police are not here to create disorder.
The police are here to preserve disorder." Mayor Richard Daley
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Posts: 1297
PostSat Sep 04, 2004 11:48 pm  Reply with quote

When I find my analysis of last fall's official "employment statistics" I'll post it.
Relying on memory here:
It takes a bit of work digging but the real numbers are found by subtracting the "employed" from the total number of people considered part of the labor force.
That actual unemployed number varies from about 30% for Hispanics and Asians to 55% for black males.

The far smaller 'official' unemployment numbers reflect those registered with states' Department of Labor only.

Only thing certain is that the government is lying as always.
"It's what he does. It's all he does!" Terminator movie dialog.
Our Dear Dubya is "the job terminator"...
(shipping soldiers, and jobs overseas)
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