Cornelia
Joined: 24 Dec 2004
Posts: 38
Location: EU (Zoorope) |
Peak Oil
 Sun Jan 30, 2005 8:54 pm
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I've seen many people here believing Peak Oil is a scam.
Well, since I'm a believer of Peak Oil theory, I think it would be of some interest to discuss it here but with some information as a starting point.
I'll try to make it short and easy to understand.
Official world reserved are estimated as one trillion barrels. Since us hungry Westerners  consume about A BILLION barrels every ELEVEN DAYS (and you should always keep this number in mind when you read about "huge reserves" just found somewhere), the last drop of oil will be recovered in thirty years. Not that bad... our children will face it, after all.
But you must do your math keeping this also in mind:
1) Any well has a 60% percentage of recovery. After they pump 60% of the oil, they just cap the well and kiss it goodbye, because it's too expensive to pump. I mean, what's the use to pump a $150 a barrel oil? So, those thirty years suddenly becomes twenty.
2) The thirty years were calculated on an actual demand basis (3%). The bad news is China: they're growing so fast that demand will rise about 6% per year next years. As you can see, if the demand is doubled, then those twenty years becomes... how much?
3) The Arabs, in 1989, doubled the numbers of their reserves. Why? Because they estabilished the new system of OPEC quotas. The more oil you have in reserves, the more you can sell. So there was a rush to increase the reserve numbers. How much oil do the Saudis really have? Sorry, no answer: it's a STATE SECRET. Nobody can dare to ask them "how much?"
Now, how many years are left? Six? Eight?
There are some more things to think about. In the last ten years, no new refineries were builted, even if they are strongly needed. How is it possible that those greedy oil companies are missing such an opportunity to make money? Maybe they know that oil will be no more a big business? The building of a refinery takes a lot of years to complete...
The oil companies are merging and downsizing. Why? Maybe their field of action is no more that promising?
Some banks, as Merryl Lynch, are phisically buying oil. Yes: not oil stocks, but REAL oil to put in special deposits in Amsterdam. Why should a bank buy a real commodity instead of doing their financial business?
Read between lines when they announces something. The last big field was discovered about five years ago. When they say "Wow! One billions barrels field!" remember it's just eleven days of world supply.
Any questions are welcome. For those interested, check www.peakoil.net: it's the official web site of Aspo. Which is not an association of conspiracy nuts as we are , but of University professors, geologists and oil experts.
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