|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
 Wed Oct 11, 2006 1:55 pm
|
 |
|
The Atlantic remains relatively quite, as compared to last years season. I find it quite amazing that not one system has managed its way to our shores, I guess thats a good thing considering how insidious "Katrina", "Rita", "Wilma", "Ophelia" etc... were in wreaking havoc during the 2oo5 season... As this year winds down, we'll be keeping our eyes wide open, sittin, waitin, watchin, wishing.....
Still some action out west, although its quite mild for now...
quote:
Today's Discussion
Two Tropical Depressions In The Pacific
Posted: 11-OCT-2006 08:38am EDT
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Dave Samuhel
Both Tropical Storms that were in the Eastern Pacific yesterday have weakened to Tropical Depressions. However, moisture from both Olivia and Norman are still heading towards Mexico, and the southwestern United States.
Tropical Depression Olivia is currently about 1,050 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and moving northeastward at 11 mph. Olivia will continue to weaken as it is embedded within strong winds aloft. Moisture is being stripped away from Olivia by the strong upper-level winds. This moisture will bring heavy rain to Mexico and possibly the southwest from Arizona to South Texas later this week.
Tropical Depression Norman is currently moving slowly to the east at 3 mph and is about 630 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Winds with the storm are at 30 mph. Like Olivia, Norman is weakening due to strong winds aloft, but its moisture will be deposited across Mexico and eventually the southwestern U.S.
|
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Thu Oct 12, 2006 1:51 pm
|
|
|
West coast update...
quote:
Today's Discussion
Norman Gone and Olivia Not Far Behind
Posted: 12-OCT-2006 08:26am EDT
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Ken Clark
Yesterday, we had two tropical storms in the Eastern Pacific. Today, Norman is gone, and Olivia is in the stages of dying away.
Tropical Depression Olivia, at 2 p.m. Pacific Time Wednesday, was located near 17.0 north and 123.6 west, moving slowly east at 7 mph. There is very little convection left with Olivia with mostly just a swirl of low clouds observed. There are some high clouds streaming northeast from near Olivia toward the Mexican coast.
Moisture from the Eastern Pacific may play a major role in bringing precipitation to parts of Arizona and Southern California late Friday into the weekend. However, this moisture will not be coming directly from either former Tropical Storm Norman or Tropical Depression Olivia.
Elsewhere, off the coast of Mexico, west of Acapulco, considerable showers and thunderstorms are occurring. These are not very organized and any development over the next 24 hours will be slow to take place, if at all.
|
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Mon Oct 23, 2006 1:57 pm
|
|
|
It looks like it ain't over yet, (hurricon season, that is), at least out west in the east pacific we have "Paul" spinnin @ CAT2 headed for Mexico... Stay tuned, "keeping the watch"... out.........
quote:
Today's Discussion
Paul Strengthens into a Hurricane
Posted: 23-OCT-2006 04:34am EDT
By AccuWeather Meteorologists Rob Miller
Tropical Storm Paul strengthened into a hurricane Sunday night. As of early Monday morning, Hurricane Paul was centered approximately 475 miles south of the southern tip of of Baja California, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph with higher gusts. Paul will likely continue to strengthen and will become a Category 2 storm later Monday. Paul was drifting to the west at 5 mph, but a shift toward the north is expected to occur during the day Monday before taking a turn toward the northeast Monday night. On this path, Paul will pass close to Cabo San Lucas during the day Tuesday, then into western Mexico Tuesday night. While Paul will quickly weaken once over Mexico, moisture will continue to stream northeastward with heavy rain falling across portions of northern Mexico and Texas later in the week.
(latest reports show it @ CAT2 now) |
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Tue Oct 24, 2006 1:40 pm
|
|
|
"Paul" already winding down...
quote:
Today's Discussion
Hurricane Paul Continues to Weaken
Posted: 24-OCT-2006 08:32am EDT
By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Meteorologist Dave Samuhel
As of 5 a.m. PDT or 8 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Paul was centered near 18.8 north, 111.3 west or about 295 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas in the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum-sustained winds are near 80 mph. Paul is moving to the north at 8 mph. The estimated central pressure is 979 millibars or 28.90 inches.
The hurricane wathc tha was in effect for the southern Baja California Peninsula from Agua Blanca, southward on the west coast and from La Paz, southward on the east coast has been replaced by a tropical storm warning. The reason the watches and warnings were downgraded is due to the current weakening trend. This trend is expected to continue up until landfall. So Paul will likely affect southern Baja or western Mexico as a tropical storm.
The hurricane is encountering shear, or strong southwest to northeast oriented upper-level winds, and some drier air. This is a small hurricane. Small hurricances are very suseptiable to shear and dry air, more than a large hurricane. As a result, we are no longer expecting the hurricane to intensify. We expect Paul to pass just south and southeast of the southern tip of the Baja Tuesday night, then move inland over the central Mexican coast during the day Wednesday. Once it hits the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains (in western Mexico), the lower-level circulation will get ripped apart, while the midlevel circulation continues to move northeast. This midlevel feature will bring rich tropical moisture over north-central Mexico late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. This moisture will start to interact with a cold front moving southeastward across Texas, Wednesday night and early Thursday. This combination might lead to heavy rain over eastern and South Texas, Wednesday night and Thursday morning and over parts of the Deep South Thursday.
The rest of the eastern Pacific features disorganized thunderstorm clusters south of southern Mexico. We see no signs of this activity becoming better organized during the next few days.
|
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:25 pm
|
|
|
Here's a report, last night on ABC's World News, anchor Charles Gibson actually did a report stating that the lack of an active hurricane season was actually hurting the economy, now thats irony for you... In the report they showed hardware stores that had stocked up on all the standard hurricane paraphernalia, i.e. electric generators, plywood, gas cans, etc.. because of all the early predictional warnings issued by the so called hurricane "experts". And, now that the season is nearly over and not one hurricane to date has graced our shores, these merchants are stuck with all this overstocked merchandise. The meteorologist or hurricane "experts" said (I'll paraphrase) that their's was not a perfect science due to too many unknown variable's...... Seem's like a multiple wammie to me, if were talking economics, no billion's of dollars in damage to repair, no bodies to have to bury, no refugies to have to find homes for, and all those poor merchants with all those extra supplies. The report did take a look on the positive side by also pointing out that the parties working on those levee's down in New Orleans would have more time to get the job finished before next years season begins, and down there in Florida they could continue with the repairs to the electrical infrastructure that put what? 6 million in the dark last year ( I'm guessing about that number for now) , anyway, before I digress here's the latest HURRICON report.........
quote:
Today's Discussion
Paul Weakening South of Baja
Posted: 25-OCT-2006 05:37am EDT
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Carl Erickson and Rob Miller
As of 1 a.m. PDT, Tropical Storm Paul was centered near 22.0 north, 110.2 west or about 70 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum-sustained winds were near 45 mph. Paul was moving to the northeast at 12 mph, and the estimated central pressure was 1003 millibars or 29.62 inches.
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Baja California from Agua Blanca southward on the west coast and from La Paz southward on the east coast. The tropical storm watch for the west coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Altata has been discontinued. Paul will likely continue to weaken, as strong, upper-level wind shear remains present, and Paul may become a depression prior to landfall near the western Mexico coastline later Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
While Paul will not directly impact the United States, some of its moisture will ride northeastward along the strong subtropical jet and move across northern Mexico into Texas later Tuesday night, perhaps bringing some heavy rainfall to portions of the Deep South Wednesday into Thursday.
The rest of the eastern Pacific remains quiet.
|
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:55 pm
|
|
|
Five full months of the 2oo6 hurricane season are forever gone now, YES!!!!!
It's Nov. 1st, (how many days left to the elections?) and thank God, not one life lost to a hurricane on our turf, at least not so far... Remember last years season ran all the way to December, I believe..... As far as the "experts" predictions went, not much was realized in the numbers, or intensity of the storms. To date only 9 Atlantic storms have even warranted names, and only a handful or so had any significant intensity at all. The east Pacific region however was host to a myriad (ok,16) of storms, and most of them reached hurricane strength, (some of them quite rapidly) but really amounted to not much of a threat at all, except for a few that swept across areas of Mexico where some damage was sustained. I'm not sure if life was lost in any of those events. I was amazed by the experts admition that theirs was not an "exact science". One would think with the advent of all the modern computer sciences modeling the globe, and data sensors in every region on the planet, they might be able to better judge the system in 2oo6 as compared with 1976... I guess not. Nature as it seems, still has the apparent upper hand. What I find quite interesting is the language that one particular "hurricane expert" uses when describing his own predictions,
"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center.
and then there's this one,
"Hurricane Rita was a warning shot," says AccuWeather.com's Bastardi, referring to the 2005 Category 5 storm that threatened the Houston area and made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border last September.
I wonder if there is some truth in the chosen words he uses to describe these phenomena. If you know what I think, then you know what I think 
Anyway, before I digress further, I'll sign off for now.........
On the sidelines WATCHING.....
starman1, out!!!
peace............ |
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:26 pm
|
|
|
Almost fell asleep at the wheel and missed this one, its been so quiet lately. Anyway, back on the watch we have "Sergio" in the east pacific, here's the latest report...
quote:
Today's Discussion
Sergio Beginning to Weaken
Posted: 16-NOV-2006 07:18am EST
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Miller
Sergio remains over the eastern Pacific Thursday morning. Sergio is a rather compact, but dangerous, storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. As of the latest report, it was located at 12.5 N, 103.1 W, about 375 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Sergio was moving to the northeast at 3 mph. The environment around Sergio is becoming less favorable for further development as westerly wind shear has begun to affect the storm. This shear will cause Sergio to weaken over the next couple of days as it nears the southern tip of Baja California later in the weekend or early next week.
Elsewhere across the eastern Pacific, there are some thunderstorms clustered south of Costa Rica at the moment, but there is no sign of organization yet. West of Hurricane Sergio, there are a few clusters of thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence zone, but all of this activity is south of 10 north and there are strong, westerly winds aloft in this area, so development here is unlikely.
|
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Fri Nov 17, 2006 2:45 pm
|
|
|
Update, "Sergio" diminishing...
quote:
Today's Discussion
Sergio is now a Tropical Storm
Posted: 17-NOV-2006 04:02am EST
By AccuWeather Meteorologist David Thomas
Sergio has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it slowly spirals northward, and it is still the main feature we are watching in the Eastern Pacific tropical basin. The tropical storm is small with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Sergio is estimated near 14.0 N and 102.8 W, about 360 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Sergio was moving to the north at 3 mph. Shear continues to increase over Sergio as it moves northward. This shear will cause Sergio to weaken over the next couple of days as it nears the southern tip of Baja California later in the weekend or early next week. Rain associated with Sergio will continue to affect southwestern Mexico today and through this weekend. Rainfall could be heavy enough to cause mudslides and localized flooding.
Elsewhere across the eastern Pacific, we see no other areas of concern.
|
| |
|
|
starman1
Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1498
Location: Earth |
|
Fri Dec 01, 2006 3:47 pm
|
|
|
It has officially ended, the 2oo6 hurricane season. It is now the first of December 2006, and although, (as we saw last year) hurricanes and or tropical storms can form in December in the Atlantic, they are a rarity.
So then, I guess there is some cause for celebration because not one of those ferocious monsters even came close to being a threat to our shores in the Gulf, (YES!!! hurry up and get those levee's shored up boys) or on the east coast, nor out here in the west (rare but still possible). Our hopes and prayers go out for those who were lost, and to those who are still suffering from the aftermath of "KATRINA", now over one year later...
In total there have only been 9, NINE, named storms in the atlantic to date, well less than half of last years horrific season.
09L.ISAAC
08L.HELENE
07L.GORDON
06L.FLORENCE
05L.ERNESTO
04L.DEBBY
03L.CHRIS
02L.BERYL
01L.ALBERTO
However, the east pacific area was quite active with over 21 storms, 19 of them named to date. Few of which, reeked to much havoc on the Mexican boarders, but all in all less than < potentially possible...>
97E.INVEST
21E.SERGIO
20E.NONAME
19E.ROSA
18E.NONAME
17E.PAUL
16E.OLIVIA
15E.NORMAN
14E.MIRIAM
13E.LANE
12E.KRISTY
11E.JOHN
10E.ILEANA
09E.HECTOR
08E.GILMA
07E.FABIO
06E.EMILIA
05E.DANIEL
04E.CARLOTTA
03E.BUD
02E.NONAME
01E.ALETTA
In the central pacific, "01C.IOKE", was an extremely impressive storm which actually made some new records of it's own, but in the end did not amount to too much.
As the watch continues we'll keep our eyes wide open for the rest of the year, and if anything further developes, report on it here.........
starman1 out!!! |
| |
|
|
 
|
|
 Goto page Previous
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
All times are GMT. The time now is Fri May 25, 2012 2:38 am
|
|
|
|
|
Login
