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Today's Discussion
Florence Heading for Bermuda
Posted: 10-SEP-2006 5:56pm EDT

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck



A hurricane warning remains in effect for Bermuda.

As of 5 p.m. EDT Sunday, Hurricane Florence was located at 29.9 north and 66.2 west, or about 185 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Florence is moving to the north at 13 mph. The maximum-sustained winds are near 90 mph with gusts to 110 mph. Estimated central pressure is 975 millibars, or 28.79 inches. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 260 miles from the center of the storm. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of the storm.

The latest satellite imagery shows bands of thunderstorms rotating inward around a central eye location. We still expect Florence to strengthen over the next 24 hours an could become a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center calls for the center of Florence to move northward Sunday evening, then to the north-northeast later Sunday night. This track will take Florence just to the west of Bermuda Monday morning and Florence should be a Category 2 hurricane at that time. This would put the islands in the worst possible location with respect to damaging winds and storm surge. Conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight Sunday and hurricane-force sustained winds of 74 mph or greater could reach the islands by daybreak. The worst conditions are expected in Bermuda Monday morning with sustained winds of 100 mph or greater and gusts up to 130 mph. Excessive flooding rain, pounding surf, beach erosion and storm surge flooding of 5-8 feet will occur in Bermuda. A tornado cannot be ruled out with some of the heavy rain bands. The wind, rain and surge will gradually lessen Monday afternoon through Monday night as Florence accelerates to the north-northeast.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there is a tropical wave along 92 west and south of 22 north, and it is moving west at 12 knots, causing little thunderstorm activity. Another wave is along 84 west south of 15 north, causing spotty thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean, but it is not showing any sign of further organization. Another tropical wave along 55 west and south of 24 north is moving west-northwest at 10 knots. This wave is strengthening could develop into a depression over the next 12-24 hours. Farther east, there are tropical waves along 40 west and along 28 west. Both waves are moving west at 10-15 knots. Neither wave is showing signs of development right now.

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Today's Discussion
Florence Continuing to Hammer Bermuda with Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds
Posted: 11-SEP-2006 09:07am EDT

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Kevin Witt

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Bermuda.

As of 8 a.m. EDT Monday, Hurricane Florence was located at 32.3 north and 65.8 west, or about 60 miles west of Bermuda. Florence is moving to the north at 12 mph. The maximum sustained winds remain at 80 mph with gusts to 100 mph. Estimated central pressure is 976 millibars, or 28.82 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles from the center of the storm. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of the storm.

The latest satellite imagery shows thunderstorms surrounding Florence's center. Florence should continue to gradually weaken during the next 24 to 48 hours, possibly becoming Tropical Rainstorm Florence by Wednesday. In the meantime, Florence will bring hurricane-force wind gusts, pounding surf, beach erosion and heavy rain to Bermuda Monday. A tornado or waterspout are possible over Bermuda. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center forecasts Hurricane Florence to remain a Category 1 hurricane during the next 24 hours, while gradually weakening as it takes a more northeasterly track away from Bermuda and toward Newfoundland. Gradually, Florence will increase in forward speed to the northeast later Monday through Wednesday.

Tropical Depression 7 is near 20.7 north and 55.7 west or about 500 miles east-northeast of St. Johns, Antigua. T.D. 7 is moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph and has sustained winds of 35 mph. Estimated central pressure is 1010 millibars or 29.83 inches. T.D. 7 is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next couple of days, becoming Tropical Storm Gordon within the next 24 hours. T.D. 7 should track off to the northwest then north-northwest this week, avoiding the Leeward Islands altogether. Some rough waves will affect the northern side of the islands during the next two to three days.

There are tropical waves near 20 north 95 west, 15 north 87 west, 12 north 44 west, and 12 north 33 west. These waves are moving west at 10-15 knots each. Some thunderstorm activity is associated with the tropical waves near 95 west and 87 west, but development is not expected anytime soon.

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Today's Discussion
Florence Moves Away, Now Gordon Has Sway
Posted: 12-SEP-2006 07:59am EDT

by AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Hurricane Florence was located at 37.2 north and 62.4 west, or about 810 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Florence is moving to the northeast at 20 mph. The maximum sustained winds have fallen a little to 75 mph with gusts of 90 mph. Estimated central pressure has risen a bit to 980 millibars, or 28.94 inches. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles from the center of the storm. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center of the storm; strongest to the north of the storm

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR: BURIN PENINSULA AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH AVALON PENINSULA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA.

As of 5:00 a.m. Tuesday, Tropical Storm Gordon was near 22.6 north and 58.3 west, or about 780 miles southeast of Bermuda. Gordon is moving to the northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph Estimated central pressure is 1000 millibars, or 29.53 inches.

Early Tuesday morning satellite images show that Florence has weakened, as is reflected in the latest data. opening up of the storm on the southern side. This is a process that leads to tropical transition or where a hurricane transitions to a non tropical storm system. Florence remains on a path that will take it north-northeast for the next couple of days. During the next 24 hours, the hurricane will move over colder and colder waters and lose more tropical characteristics. Florence should pass very near or perhaps over the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern NewFoundland Wednesday, as a tropical rain storm. So, much of eastern and southeastern Newfoundland will experience tropical-storm-force winds if the center does reach the Avalon Peninsula. After that, Florence will head well into the North Atlantic later Wednesday, but will remain a major problem for ships at sea.

Tropical Storm Gordon looks stronger on recent satellite image. The storm will gradually strengthen during the next few days and the storm should become a hurricane sometime Wednesday. We expect this system to track to the northwest, then north-northwest by Wednesday. After that it will turn more to the northeast on the western periphery of the same Atlantic ridge that controlled the movement of Florence. This forecast path will take the system east of Bermuda by Saturday morning.

There are tropical waves along 35 west, 47 west, and 62 west. These waves are moving to the west at an average pace of 6 degrees longitude per day. No development is expected from these waves any time soon.

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Today's Discussion
Florence is Becoming Non Tropical, Gordon is now a Hurricane, and Depression 8 Should Become Tropical Storm Helene Wednesday
Posted: 12-SEP-2006 10:53pm EDT

by AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

As of 11:00 p.m. Florence was transitioning into a non tropical storm. Florence is moving to the northeast at 20 mph. The maximum sustained winds are 75 mph with gusts of 90 mph. Estimated central pressure is around 980 millibars, or 29.94 inches. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward 415 miles from the center of the storm. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center of the storm; strongest to the north of the storm. Even though Florence is over 1000 miles away, the storm is causing large swells and rough surf for the Bahamas and eastern United States which will continue to cause dangerous rip currents.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:

TERRA NOVA AND BONAVISTA NORTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:

CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO RAMEA - CONNAIGRE BURIN PENINSULA AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH AVALON PENINSULA NORTH ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY BONAVISTA PENINSULA.

As of 11:00 PM. Tuesday, Gordon has strengthened into a hurricane and it was near 24.4 north and 57.9 west, or about 565 miles north northeast of the Leeward islands and 690 miles southeast of Bermuda. Gordon is moving to the north at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph. Estimated central pressure is 987 millibars, or 29.15 inches. Gordon will continue to strengthen as it heads to the north.

Tropical Depression 8 which formed off the coast of Africa late Tuesday morning. As of 11:00 PM EDT the depression is located near 11.8 north 25.3 west or about 215 miles south-southwest of the southern most Cape Verde Islands. The Depression is moving west at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. Minimum pressure is 1007 mb or 29.74 inches. The depression is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours and could become Tropical Storm Helene on Wednesday.

It should not be surprising that we have three tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. We are at the peak of the hurricane season. The Atlantic ocean water temperature is the warmest it will ever get during the year and the upper level winds from the west have relaxed considerably over the Atlantic east of 70 west. So, we see warm water and weak shear giving rise to quick tropical development.

Florence is still a very powerful storm system despite the fact that it is transitioning into a non tropical storm. Florence has sustained winds of 75 mph and gusts to 90 mph. Florence still maintains a very large wind field with tropical storm force winds extending over 400 miles mainly to the north and northeast of the center. Hurricane force winds have now expanded out to just over 100 miles away from the storm. Florence is mostly a severe hazard for ships at sea. However, the large wind field is creating huge swells of over 20 feet. These swells are propogating in all directions away from the system. As these swells move west they are causing very rough surf and dangerous rip currents from the shores of Nova Scotia southward to the southeast coast of Florida. Beach goers along the coast are being advised to stay out of the water until these swells subside. We expect the rough surf to gradually subside by this weekend. Florence has a well developed circulation that has only a few strong thunderstorms on its west side. roughly 325 miles away from the center of Florence but is experiencing sustained winds of 30 mph with consistent gusts to 40 mph. Along the coast of Nova Scotia skies are partly cloudy with winds sustained at 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Florence will continue to transfer into a non tropical system Tuesday night . Then this storm will brush southeast Newfoundland with tropical storm force winds during Wednesday as it passes 120 to 150 miles southeast of Cape Race which is on the southeast tip of Newfoundland. Then we expect the storm to track well into the North Atlantic where it will combine with another storm system and head further northeast, perhaps having an impact on the British Isles in a few days.

Gordon is now a hurricane heading to the north at a slow pace due to the weak steering currents. Florence left a large weak void in the central Atlantic allowing Gordon to move into it. So, Gordon is expected to move almost due north over the next couple of days then track more to the northeast where it will pass well east of Bermuda. Gordon is over very warm water and low shear. So, we expect the storm to become a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours. Gordon should not threaten any land mass for the next several days. Its possible early next week it might turn more easterly and affect the Azores sometime Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical depression 8 almost looks like a tropical storm. It should become tropical storm Helene within the next 12-24 hours. This systm is a classic Cape Verde storm that will track west then west northwest over the next several days. Like Gordon it is in a favorable area for intensification and should become a hurricane by this weekend. It's future track depends on how much latitude it gains over the next 2-3 days. The further north it tracks during these few days the more likely it will get drawn up into the same weakness created by Florence and now Gordon. It is not unusual to see three storms taking similar paths across the central Atlantic like this since the overall upper level wind pattern is not going to change much over the next few days.

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Today's Discussion
Three Systems of Note
Posted: 13-SEP-2006 5:48pm EDT

by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

As of 5:00 PM. EDT, Gordon is now a strong Category 2 hurricane located near 27.0 north...57.5 west or about 570 miles southeast of Bermuda. Gordon is traveling to the north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 110 mph with gusts to 130 mph. Hurricane-force winds with Gordon extend out to 30 miles, with tropical-force winds extending out to 105 miles. Estimated surface pressure is 965 millibars or 28.50 inches. Further strengthening is expected and Gordon should become a Category 3 hurricane within the next 12 hours and could become even stronger before reaching colder waters by this weekend. Gordon remains on a course that will take the hurricane well east of Bermuda tomorrow night and Friday. Gordon will gradually track more to the northeast and this will keep Gordon over the open waters of the north Atlantic and away from any landmass.

As of 5:00 PM. EDT, Tropical Depression 8 is in the open Atlantic near 12.7 north...30.7 west or about 445 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression is moving to the west at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Estimated central pressure is 1007 millibars or 29.74 inches. Tropical Depression 8 may become Tropical Storm Helene within the next 24 hours. However, the environment is not very favorable for quick development. As has been the case this year with almost every tropical wave, a large area of African dust is located with this system. Once this dust and dry air thin out the depression will have a better chance of strengthening at a faster pace. In fact, this system could become a hurricane this weekend. The good news is that this system will remain far out at sea and will not be a threat to land any time soon, perhaps never. A general track to the west and then west-northwest is expected into the weekend.

Florence is a very powerful non-tropical storm tracking east-northeast very close to southeast Newfoundland known as the Avalon Peninsula. Tropical Storm warnings remain in effect over parts of south and southeast Newfoundland with a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for northeast Newfoundland. As of 4:00 PM EDT, the storm was located near 46.4 north...53.4 west or 23 miles south-southwest of Cape Race Newfoundland. Maximum sustained winds are still near 75 mph with gusts to 90 mph. A pressure of 966 millibars or 28.53 inches was reported at a buoy just 23 miles south-southeast of Cape Race. This is the lowest pressure this storm has attained so far. This is a very intense storm and will continue to lash southeast Newfoundland through early tonight with tropical storm-force winds, as well as wind gusts over hurricane force across exposed coastal locations. Drier air is wrapping into the storm and the heavier rain will continue to taper off over eastern Newfoundland this afternoon. This storm will then head northeast and across the open north Atlantic still packing strong winds for the next several days. The strongest wind gust reported around midday was 100 mph or 163 kph on an exposed location on Sagona Island, which is just off the southeast coast of Newfoundland. Other peak wind gusts include 66 mph at Cape Race, 65 mph at St. John's and 55 mph at Argentia.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are tracking tropical waves along 44 west, along 52 west, along 60 west and along 72 west. All waves are moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. The wave along 60 west is bringing gusty winds and rainfall to the Lesser Antilles. The cloud structure looks impressive. However, recent surface data does not suggest a well-defined, lower-level feature at this point and upper-level winds remain unfavorable for development.

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Today's Discussion
Tropical Storm Lane Threatening the Mexican Coastline
Posted: 14-SEP-2006 06:52am EDT

Special Discussion by Accuweather.com Meteorologist Brian Frugis

Tropical Storm Lane, the 12th named storm in the Eastern Pacific this season, was located just 90 miles south-southwest of Lazara Cardenas, Mexico early Thursday morning. Lane has sustained winds of 40 mph and some strengthening is expected over the next day or so. Since Lane is so close to the coast, outer rainbands from the system are affecting the Mexican coastline. As a result, the Mexican government has issued a tropical storm warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo. In addition, a tropical storm watch has been issued from Manzanillo westward to Cabo Corrientes. Lane is producing heavy rainfall and total rainfall accumulations of 3-6 inches can be expected along the southwest coast of Mexico. Some isolated areas could see up to 10 inches of rainfall, which can cause flash flooding and mudslides. Also, since most of the storm remains over water and the water is quite warm, Lane could intensify rapidly over the next few days and will probably become a hurricane.

Lane is moving west-northwestward at 10 mph. The storm will likely parallel the coast of Mexico over the next few days. While it was originally hoped that Lane would turn westward away from Mexico, latest model guidance suggest that Lane will travel northward towards the Baja Peninsula of Mexico, as the storm moves in response to a large trough digging through the western United States. Once Lane gets near the Baja Peninsula, the forecast becomes even more uncertain. It's possible that Lane turns northeastward into the mountains of northern mainland Mexico; it's also possible that Lane rains itself out over the mountains of the Baja Peninsula (much like Hurricane John did). It's now looking like Lane could spread moisture into some parts of the southwestern United States by the middle of next week, however, which part of the Southwest is affected by this storm is still unknown, as that will ultimately depend on the exact track of Lane.

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Today's Discussion
Atlantic Basin Remains Active
Posted: 14-SEP-2006 06:22am EDT

by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Michael LeSeney

As of 5:00 A.M. EDT, Gordon continues to march northward as a Category 3 hurricane. Gordon is located near 28.7 north, 56.6 west or about 550 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The storm is moving north-northeast at 13 mph with maximum-sustained winds of 120 mph and frequent gusts of 150 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards up to 30 miles from the center with tropical-storm-force winds outwards up to 140 miles. The estimated central pressure of Gordon is 955 millibars, or 28.20 inches of mercury. Gordon remains on a course that will take the hurricane well east of Bermuda Thursday night and Friday. Gordon will gradually track more to the northeast and this will keep Gordon over the open waters of the north Atlantic and away from any landmass.

As of 5:00 A.M. EDT, Tropical Storm Helene was located near 13.7 north, 34.7 west or about 695 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. The storm is racing to the west at 22 mph with maximum-sustained winds of 40 mph and frequent gusts of 50 mph. The estimated central pressure is 1005 millibars, or 29.68 inches of mercury. An upper-level anticyclone is over the top of Helene which will favor strengthening. However, the environment is not very favorable for rapid development. As has been the case this year with almost every tropical wave, a large area of African dust is located with this system. Since Helene is a large tropical storm it may overwhelm this dust, giving it a chance of strengthening at a faster pace. In fact, this system could become a hurricane late Friday. The good news is that this system will remain far out at sea and will not be a threat to land any time soon, perhaps never. A general track to the west Thursday and Friday with a west-northwest track this weekend.

Florence remains a very powerful non-tropical storm on a east-northeast course away from southeastern Newfoundland known as the Avalon Peninsula. All inland warnings have ended, but gale and storm-force wind warnings remain in effect over the marine districts of Atlantic Canada. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Florence was located near 49.0 north, 47.4 west or about 260 miles to the east-northeast of St. Johns, Newfoundland. The storm is moving towards the east-northeast at 27 mph with maximum-sustained winds near 70 mph and frequent gusts near 90 mph. The estimated central pressure is 967 millibars, or 28.56 inches of mercury. Florence will head east-northeast and across the open north Atlantic still packing strong winds for the next several days. The strongest wind gust reported yesterday was 100 mph or 163 kph on an exposed location on Sagona Island, which is just off the southeast coast of Newfoundland. Other peak wind gusts include 66 mph at Cape Race, 65 mph at St. John's and 55 mph at Argentina.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are tracking tropical waves along 45 west, along 54 west, along 63 west and along 74 west. All these waves will continue to track to the west at around 6 degrees longitude per day. The wave near 63 west continues to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward Islands. The cloud structure looks impressive. However, surface data does not indicate a well-defined, lower-level circulation and upper-level winds remain unfavorable for development.

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Today's Discussion
Lane Nearing Hurricane Strength Just Off the Mexican Coastline
Posted: 15-SEP-2006 06:29am EDT

Special Discussion by Accuweather.com Meteorologist Brian Frugis

As of early Friday morning Pacific Time, Tropical Storm Lane was centered just 110 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Lane remains a strong tropical storm with maximum-sustained winds of 65 mph, along with some higher gusts. As a result of this storm being close to the coastline, the Mexican government has issued tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches for much of the Mexican Pacific coastline.

Lane is bringing heavy rainfall to the coast of Mexico and this will continue to be the primary threat with this system on Friday. There will be 2-4 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts along the coast. This can cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Strengthening of Lane is likely since the Pacific waters are quite warm and most of the storm is located over water. Lane should reach hurricane strength sometime later on Friday. Since Lane is such a small storm, rapid intensification could be possible. At the same time, any interaction with the mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico could also hinder some development.

Lane is currently moving northwest at 13 mph. The storm is expected to parallel the Mexican coastline on Friday and Saturday before making a more north to northeastward turn. This should bring Lane towards the southern Baja Peninsula and into the Gulf of California. On Sunday night and Monday, Lane is expected to come onshore in northern Mexico and weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of northern mainland Mexico. It's possible that some moisture from Lane will get streamed northeastward into Texas. This can enhance some rainfall across the state that will occur thanks to a passing frontal system.

Another area of low pressure located 1,100 miles southwest of the Baja Peninsula has not shown any signs of tropical development. The models do not currently show this system becoming organized anytime soon, so any development of this system would be slow to occur.

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Today's Discussion
Gordon Races, Helene Paces
Posted: 15-SEP-2006 05:47am EDT

by AccuWeather Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Gordon continues to march northward as a Category 2 hurricane. Gordon is located near 30.9 north, 53.4 west or about 680 miles east of Bermuda. The storm is moving northeast at 9 mph. Maximum-sustained winds are 110 mph and estimated gusts of 130 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards up to 30 miles from the center with tropical-storm-force winds outwards up to 140 miles. The estimated central pressure of Gordon is 965 millibars, or 28.50 inches of mercury.

Gordon remains on a course that will keep the hurricane in the middle Atlantic, far removed from any landmass Thursday night, Friday and through the upcoming weekend. The nearest landmass that Gordon could threaten would be the Azores. If Gordon turns more to the east late in the weekend it could affect the Azores early next week.

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Helene was located near 15.0 north, 40.3 west or about 1,025 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm is moving west-northwest at 15 mph with estimated maximum-sustained winds of 45 mph with estimated gusts of 60 mph. The estimated central pressure is 1003 millibars, or 29.62 inches of mercury.

Helene remains to the south of a large high pressure area located over the central Atlantic. This high pressure area will keep Helene on a west-northwest course through Friday with maybe a slight turn to a more northerly direction early next week. An upper-level trough moving off the East Coast Friday night and Saturday will move east and cause Helene to track more northward by the end of the weekend and early next week. This should keep Helene east of Bermuda.

Helene has slowed down some and usually a slow down helps a system like this to intensify. We still expect Helen to strengthen into a hurricane, but this might not happen until Friday night or Saturday. Helene could undergo rapid intensification similar to Gordon over the weekend. At this point we expect Helene to become a category 2 hurricane with winds over 95 mph by Sunday and perhaps become a major hurricane if the shear stays low over the system.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are tracking tropical waves along 60 west, along 71 west and along 82 west. All these waves will continue to track to the west. This wave will remain disorganized for at least the next couple of days. No computer model shows this system developing at this point.

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Today's Discussion
Shanshan Nearing Taiwan and Ryukyu Islands
Posted: 15-SEP-2006 07:03am EDT

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Lisa Wieser

As of early Friday, Typhoon Shanshan was centered near 23 north and 124 east; approximately 320 miles southwest of Naha in the Ryukyu Islands. Sustained winds are around 130 mph with movement to the northwest at about 10 mph. Shanshan is forecast to turn to the northeast today, avoiding landfall with Taiwan. It will nevertheless bring a good amount of rain to the country as it moves northward. Over the weekend it will pass closely to the Ryukyu Islands and southern Japan, and could make landfall in Kyushu, Japan by Sunday. The storm will need to be monitored closely because of its strength and proximity to heavily populated areas.

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It's possible that some moisture from Lane will get streamed northeastward into Texas

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Today's Discussion
Lane Reaches Category 2 Strength Off the Mexican Coastline
Posted: 15-SEP-2006 8:03pm EDT

Special Discussion by Accuweather.com Meteorologist Brian Wimer

Lane reached Hurricane strength Friday afternoon. The storm is located 80 miles west-northwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, or 240 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Lane has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. As a result of this storm being close to the coastline, the Mexican government has issued hurricane warnings from El Roblito to Altata along the mainland, and also for southern Baja California. A hurricane watch is in effect from Altata to Huatabampito, with a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch from El Roblito to Manzanillo.

Lane is bringing heavy rainfall to the coast of Mexico and this will continue to be the primary threat with this system Friday night. There will be 4-8 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts along the coast. This can cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Further strengthening of Lane is likely since the Pacific waters are quite warm and most of the storm is located over water. Since Lane is such a small storm, rapid intensification could be possible. At the same time, any interaction with the mountainous terrain of coastal Mexico could also hinder some development.

Lane is currently moving northwest at 13 mph. The storm is expected to parallel the Mexican coastline on Friday night and Saturday before making a more north to northeastward turn. This should bring Lane towards the southern Baja Peninsula and into the Gulf of California. On Sunday night and Monday, Lane is expected to come onshore in northern Mexico and weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of northern mainland Mexico. It's possible that some moisture from Lane will get streamed northeastward into Texas. This can enhance some rainfall across the state that will occur thanks to a passing frontal system.

Another area of low pressure located 450 miles southwest of the Baja Peninsula has not shown any signs of tropical development. The models do not currently show this system becoming organized anytime soon, so any development of this system would be slow to occur.

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Today's Discussion
Gordon Weakening, Helene Approaching Hurricane Strength
Posted: 16-SEP-2006 06:28am EDT

by AccuWeather Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Gordon is a Category 1 hurricane with maximum-sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts. Gordon is located near 31.3 north, 53.7 west or about 655 miles east of Bermuda. The storm is moving very slowly and erratically at this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center with tropical storm-force winds outwards up to 105 miles. The estimated central pressure of Gordon is 987 millibars, or 29.15 inches of mercury.

Gordon will gradually pick up speed to the northeast over the next couple of days, a course that will keep the hurricane in the middle Atlantic, far removed from any landmass through the weekend. The nearest land that Gordon could threaten would be the Azores. If Gordon turns more to the east late in the weekend it could affect the Azores early next week.

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Helene was located near 17.9 north, 44.7 west or about 1210 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The storm is moving west-northwest at 15 mph with estimated maximum-sustained winds of 70 mph with higher gusts. Helene may strengthen into a hurricane Saturday. The estimated central pressure is 992 millibars, or 29.29 inches of mercury.

Helene remains south of a large high pressure area over the central Atlantic. This high pressure area will keep Helene on a west-northwest course through the weekend. An upper-level trough moving off the East Coast Saturday will cause Helene to track more northward by early next week. This should keep Helene east of Bermuda.

Helene could undergo rapid intensification similar to Gordon over the weekend. At this point, we expect Helene to become a Category 2 hurricane with winds over 95 mph by the end of the weekend and perhaps become a major hurricane if the shear stays low over the system.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are tracking tropical waves along 22 west, 76 west and 85 west. All these waves will continue to track to the west.

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Today's Discussion
Powerful Shanshan over the East China Sea
Posted: 16-SEP-2006 03:55am EDT

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Robert Hergenrother

Typhoon Shanshan as of early Saturday morning was centered over the East China Sea. Shanshan remains a powerful typhoon as sustained winds are near 140 mph with gusts exceeding 160 mph. Direction of movement is to the north-northwest at 10 mph. The eye of Shanshan very recently passed over the Japanese island of Iriomote Jima, part of the Ryukyu Islands south of Japan. Since Friday afternoon, Ishigaki, located very near the passage of the eye of Shanshan, received over 8 inches of rainfall since Friday afternoon. Not only was the rainfall extremely abundant, winds reached speeds between 55-75 mph for a 10-hour period with the highest recorded wind speed of 85 mph. Shanshan is as strong as it will get as gradual weakening will occur over the next couple of days as Shanshan travels to the north-northeast across the East China Sea. By late Sunday or early Monday, Shanshan will affect the southern regions of the main island of Japan as well as the Korean Peninsula. At this point, Shanshan may be a tropical storm with even further weakening expected as Shanshan heads across the Sea of Japan on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Today's Discussion
Gordon Starting to Move, Helene Tracking Northwest
Posted: 16-SEP-2006 6:06pm EDT

by AccuWeather Meteorologist John Feerick, Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Gordon remains a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts. Gordon is located near 31.7 north, 54.0 west or about 635 miles east of Bermuda. The storm is moving to the north-northwest at 3 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center with tropical storm-force winds outwards up to 105 miles. The estimated central pressure of Gordon is 987 millibars, or 29.15 inches of mercury.

Gordon will gradually pick up speed to the north and northeast over the next couple of days, a course that will keep the hurricane in the middle Atlantic, far removed from any landmass through the weekend. The nearest land that Gordon could threaten would be the Azores. Gordon would likely become extratropical before affecting the Azores; however, it would still bring strong winds and very heavy rains to the islands.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Helene was located near 19.3 north, 46.3 west or about 1100 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving to the northwest at 13 mph with estimated maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 987 millibars, or 29.15 inches of mercury.

Helene is currently heading northwest toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic and this path should continue over the next day or two. An upper trough of low pressure along the east coast will shift across the western Atlantic over the next couple of days and and could pick up Helene and steer her to more to the north and well to the east of Bermuda mid- to late week. However, there is a chance that this upper trough misses Helene and that the hurricane tracks father to the west and closer to Bermuda late week. There is also a chance that the central Atlantic sub-tropical ridge strengthens shifts to the west in the wake of Gordon and this could cause the approaching upper trough to shear to the northeast and away from a more westward moving Helene. Helene should undergo intensification over the weekend and it could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds over 95 mph by the end of the weekend. It is not out of the question that Helene becomes a major hurricane early next week if the shear stays low over the system.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are tracking tropical low pressure center 16 north and 22 north. It is moving west at 10 knots and it is also encountering southwest shear, so development should be slow. There are tropical waves along 76 west and 86 west; the wave along 86 west is causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms over Central America.

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Hurricane Lane Makes Landfall; Miriam Forms
Posted: 16-SEP-2006 4:53pm EDT

Special Discussion by Accuweather.com Meteorologist Alan Reppert

Hurricane Lane made landfall late Saturday afternoon as a Category 3 hurricane about 20 miles south of El Dorado, Mexico. Later in the afternoon, the storm was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane. As of early Saturday afternoon, the storm was located near 24.4 north and 107.2 west, or about 95 miles north-northwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Winds were sustained at 120 mph with gusts to nearly 150 mph. The storm will continue to quickly weaken as it moves farther inland Saturday night into Sunday.

There can still be a storm surge with the storm to the south of where the eye-wall made landfall, and some areas will continue to receive heavy rainfall for the next several hours. Rainfall totals in some areas could reach over 18 inches and landslides will be a major concern near the track of the storm. The storm will continue moving north at 10 mph over the next several hours.

Meanwhile, newly named Tropical Storm Miriam was located near 18.2 north and 114.3 west, or around 420 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Winds with the storm are near 40 mph with some stronger gusts. Miriam will continue to slowly move northeast at 4 mph; feeling the effects of Lane, this storm will likely not gain strength to quickly.

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Today's Discussion
Lane Rains On Mexico While Miriam Forms
Posted: 17-SEP-2006 07:09am EDT

Special Discussion by Accuweather.com Meteorologist Dave Samuhel

Hurricane Lane made landfall late Saturday afternoon as a Category 3 hurricane about 20 miles south of El Dorado, Mexico. Lane was downgraded to a Tropical Storm Saturday night. Lane was rapidly weakening Sunday morning. However, Lane was bringing heavy rain to a large part of northern Mexico and even into South Texas. Heavy rain from Lane will continue to deluge northern Mexico and Texas through Monday. Localized rainfall totals in Texas will surpass 5 inches. However, some mountain locations in Mexico will have storm total rainfall amounts close to two feet. Widespread flooding and mudsldes are expected, especially close to the track of Lane.

Meanwhile, newly named Tropical Storm Miriam was located 370 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Sunday morning. Winds with the storm are near 45 mph with some stronger gusts. Miriam will continue to slowly move northeast at a slow pace. Feeling the effects of Lane, Miriam will likely not gain strength too quickly.

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Today's Discussion
Helene Gaining Strength, Gordon Moving Out
Posted: 17-SEP-2006 05:50am EDT

by AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Dodd

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Gordon remains a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph with higher gusts. Gordon is located near 32.6 north, 53.3 west or about 670 miles east of Bermuda. The hurricane is moving to the north at 6 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center with tropical storm-force winds outwards up to 115 miles. The estimated central pressure of Gordon is 987 millibars, or 29.15 inches of mercury.

Gordon is maintaining hurricane strength near the edge of warm waters in the central Atlantic and could still remain a weak hurricane or a strong tropical storm during the day Sunday. Gordon is gradually picking up speed to the north, and it will quickly gain more of an easterly component later Sunday and Sunday night. The nearest land that Gordon could threaten would be the Azores Tuesday. The latest forecast has Gordon passing at least a couple of hundred miles north of the islands, but that is still close enough for concern. Gordon would likely become extratropical before affecting the Azores; however, it would still bring strong winds and very heavy rains to the islands.

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Helene was located near 20.0 north, 48.2 west or about 980 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving to the northwest at 9 mph, and maximum sustained winds have increased 85 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center with tropical storm-force winds outwards up to 175 miles. The estimated central pressure is 979 millibars, or 28.91 inches of mercury.

Helene is currently heading toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic, and this path should continue over the next day or two. An upper trough of low pressure along the East coast will shift across the western Atlantic over the next couple of days and could pick up Helene and steer her to more to the north and well to the east of Bermuda mid- to late week. However, there is a chance that this upper trough misses Helene and that the hurricane tracks father west and closer to Bermuda late week. This could happen if the central Atlantic sub-tropical ridge strengthens and shifts to the west Tuesday-Wednesday in the wake of Gordon, thus causing the approaching upper trough in the western Atlantic to shear to the northeast and away from Helene. The stronger upper ridge to the north of Helene would put her on a more west-northwest track, possibly toward Bermuda. The GFS and the EURO models are onto this scenario, while the other global models favor a faster recurve well to the east of Bermuda.

Helene should continue to undergo intensification through the rest of the weekend with warm waters and favorable shear in its path, and it could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds sustained winds over 95 mph by later Sunday night. It is not out of the question that Helene becomes a major hurricane early next week if the shear stays low over the system.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are tracking tropical low pressure center near 17 west and 22 north. It is moving west at 10 knots and it is also encountering southwest shear, so development will be slow. There are tropical waves along 78 west and 87 west; the wave along 87 west is causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms over Central America.

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Today's Discussion
Shanshan Nearing Southern Japan
Posted: 17-SEP-2006 03:29am EDT

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Robert Hergenrother

Typhoon Shanshan continues to progress north-northeastward at 23 mph as of early Sunday. This places the storm over the eastern part of the East China Sea. Shanshan has weakened since Saturday when sustained winds were near 140 mph, now sustained winds are around 110 mph and will continue to lessen in intensity throughout Sunday. It appears that Shanshan will make landfall with southern Japan, somewhere between Sendai and Sasebo. Shanshan's time over land will be brief, but that will not prevent the weakening of Shanshan as the storm should lower to tropical storm status on Sunday night as the storm heads into the Sea of Japan. In the meantime, heavy, flooding rains will soak the southern third of Japan to South Korea on Sunday and Sunday night, accompanied by damaging winds near the center of the storm. Rainfall totals may range between 5-10 inches.

Newly formed Tropical Depression 16W is over the western Pacific as of early Sunday. The storm is centered near 20.6 degrees north and 157.0 degrees east. Tropical Storm 16W is not affecting any Pacific Islands as sustained winds are around 35 mph. The projected direction of movement may take the storm to the south-southwest over the next few days as sustained winds may increase to around 55 mph.

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