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Did the USAF hit the Panic Button on Chris?

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weatherman714


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Did the USAF hit the Panic Button on Chris? PostThu Aug 03, 2006 4:42 am  Reply with quote  

It's funny, 3 hours after I sent my analysis of Chris to a close friend at 1am, the USAF weather modification squad was out and about trying to do in my opinion when I woke this morning... way too much. Puerto Rico is now in the Crosshairs of Chris this evening all thanks to the USAF.

Every computer model except the ETA(NAM) had trouble forecasting the speed and track of Chris over the next few days. None of the models made sense and even the ETA(NAM) was too fast. Chris should have hit South Flordia as a Cat 2 on August 8th... but now the USAF has completely changed the direction of Chris from 300 bearing to what appears to be a 225 bearing on the most recent Satellitte photos...

How did the USAF do it. Easy early this morning around 4am EDT the USAF began to spray the Bermuda high on it's Northeast quadrant causing it to strengthen and increase the speed of a jet stream running NE-SW Northeast of the Bahamas. By increasing the pressures aloft, they increased the speed of the jet stream therefore almost suddenly changing Chris's motion from NW to SW as the modified jet stream approached the system.




Now 6 hours later... notice Chris is still not affected by the burst of jet stream winds from the USAF.


Clearly now we can see that Chris is moving SW from it's NW movement as our jet stream burst has affected Chris.


Loop of Chris...


Last edited by weatherman714 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 2:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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weatherman714


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Additonal maps PostThu Aug 03, 2006 5:24 am  Reply with quote  

Hitting Puerto Rico was out of the cone of possibilities.. espically for a sudden 4 hour shift...

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Ronda860





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PostThu Aug 03, 2006 11:43 am  Reply with quote  


quote:
This tells us that the person running this project is A) a woman or B) a real tower of jelly or gay and C) Extremely stupid


I've read a lot on this website but not ever a direct flame.
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Tenderflower





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PostThu Aug 03, 2006 12:58 pm  Reply with quote  

Weatherman, Your expertise is amazing, but your attitude rots.

If you would just get over whatever is really bothering you, maybe you could be a great leader in this chemtrail/weather modification/global dimming issue.

However, people won't tolerate gender/racial/ethnic slurs for long, and it could even ruin your credibility.

Peace, Cool -Tenderflower
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starman1





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PostThu Aug 03, 2006 2:20 pm  Reply with quote  


quote:
Weatherman, Your expertise is amazing, but your attitude rots.


All I can say is garbage in, garbage out... I can't help but notice when ever these "models" fail it's always someone else's fault.
I think they fail because they lack some unknown varibles, and are therefore totally incomplete. Like I said before, I don't want to discourage anyones efforts, but my gut tells me someone still needs to do more research and development on his project... Don't get me wrong, I'm not pretending to be the know all end all guy here, because I sure don't have all the answers either, I'm just suggesting that there is a lot more going on in the atmosphere at large, than this guy is aware of. Sorry, if that offends you or anyone else, but that is my honest opinion, for what it's worth...
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weatherman714


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waking up PostThu Aug 03, 2006 2:39 pm  Reply with quote  

I was dead tired and still angry from my entire network being hacked and my brother's computer being erased. Needless to say right after that post last night and I can put my right hand on the bible and look John Roberts in the eyes the 3 days of constant "chriping" of my hard drive stopped. I couldn't even run Civ 3 or Civ 4, adobe illustrator, World of Warcraft and other programs because as soon as they came up someone was closing them out. My browsers were making duplicate copies and then closing out. Over the past three days I had re-set the network 5 times, scanned my computer for spyware and viruses and guess what within 2 minutes of being re-connected to the internet the chriping would start again.
It irritates me half to death that I send e-mails with weather analysis and then 2, 3 hours later the USAF is out and about spraying and in the areas needed to change the weather. There's nothing fun about being followed,phones being tapped, computer's hacked, e-mails intercepted. They threw the first stones when I caught them following me to college for two weeks straight in March '02. I was an innocent 20 y/o college student. My messages use to be extremely positive but after 4 years of stalking by the US Govt, it kinda puts you on edge. So apologies to all that were offended.
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weatherman714


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*rolls eyes PostThu Aug 03, 2006 2:44 pm  Reply with quote  

" I'm just suggesting that there is a lot more going on in the atmosphere at large, than this guy is aware of."

That speaks for itself what I have take it or leave it. The actual high can be checked at nws.noaa.gov @ the Mt. Holly Office.

Projected highs for Wilmington, DE from the 7.21 forecast run...
Date: Forecast High(7/21 run) Actual High Error
July 22,2006 93F 86F 7F
July 23,2006 83F 82F 1F
July 24,2006 85F 84F 1F
July 25,2006 84F 83F 1F
July 26,2006 85F 85F 0F
July 27,2006 90F 91F 1F
July 28,2006 91F 91F 0F
July 29,2006 89F 90F 1F
July 30,2006 91F 91F 0F
July 31,2006 94F 93F 1F
August 1,2006 94F 95F 1F
August 2,2006 96F 95F 1F
August 3,2006 96F ** **
August 4,2006 96F ** **
August 5,2006 93F ** **
August 6,2006 88F ** **
August 7,2006 92F ** **
August 8,2006 92F ** **
August 9,2006 90F ** **
August 10,2006 91F ** **
August 11,2006 90F ** **
August 12,2006 90F ** **
August 13,2006 86F ** **
August 14,2006 87F ** **
August 15,2006 90F ** **
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Ronda860





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PostThu Aug 03, 2006 5:53 pm  Reply with quote  

There is no excuse for the flame when you didnt even bother to retract/delete. Its insensitive, perpetuates violence and any further postings should be banned.
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weatherman714


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this is crazy PostThu Aug 03, 2006 6:21 pm  Reply with quote  

1) I did retract, apologize, and delete what more do you want from me...

2) It was directed at the head of the USAF Weather Modification Project, not at everyone else... again sorry if you took it the wrong way...

I don't get paid a cent for this. I just like to share my talents with the world to help everyone feel better about what they are seeing so that they don't feel like their are in a box. I proved that the USAF was responsible for this current heat wave as they held up a front on 7/21. Over 100,000 people have died from this current heat wave through heart attacks, strokes, asthema, and direct heat related illnesses. The USAF will stop a hurricane to prevent oil prices from going up but create massive heat waves to put money into the electric companies pockets, put small family famers out of business, and increase the profits of ethanol producers. It says something loud and clear, this project is designed to protect tangable assests of the wealthy and not people. I think this article by the AP says it all.


I don't know what I'm talking about according to several people, but yet last night I beat the NHC to the punch and their experts said the same exact thing I did.... Yet I don't know what I'm talking about....

Strong winds in the upper atmosphere sheared off the top of the storm, robbing Chris of its punch. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said it was expected to dissipate on Thursday into a tropical depression, a gusty mass of showers.


"Energy prices eased as the storm weakened. Oil and natural gas prices had risen on the possible threat to drilling platforms and exploration rigs in the Gulf, where hurricanes Katrina and Rita fueled up on unusually warm water before slamming into Louisiana and Texas last year."



Tropical Storm Chris weakens on path toward Cuba By Jane Sutton
2 hours, 28 minutes ago



MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Chris weakened on Thursday on a westward path toward Cuba and was expected to fizzle before nearing U.S. oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

ADVERTISEMENT

Strong winds in the upper atmosphere sheared off the top of the storm, robbing Chris of its punch. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said it was expected to dissipate on Thursday into a tropical depression, a gusty mass of showers.

"Chris is becoming disorganized in a hurry," senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila said in a center advisory.

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), Chris was about 255 miles (410 km) east-southeast of Grand Turk Island, the capital island of the Turks and Caicos chain southeast of the Bahamas.

It was heading west-northwest near 12 miles per hour (19 kph), a track that would take it north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Friday and over Cuba on Sunday.

Its top sustained winds had slowed to near 40 mph (65 kph), making Chris just barely a tropical storm.

Tropical storm watches were still in effect for the Turks and Caicos and the islands of the southeastern Bahamas, where the main concern was heavy rainfall.

The remnants of the storm were expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Energy prices eased as the storm weakened. Oil and natural gas prices had risen on the possible threat to drilling platforms and exploration rigs in the Gulf, where hurricanes Katrina and Rita fueled up on unusually warm water before slamming into Louisiana and Texas last year.

The hurricanes of 2005 shut a quarter of U.S. crude output and sent oil prices to record highs.

Experts have predicted this year could see another active Atlantic hurricane season with several major storms, though nothing like the record number seen in 2005. Chris was the third tropical storm of the 2006 Atlantic season.

Forecasters lowered their activity predictions for this year's hurricane season on Thursday. The Colorado State University team formed by pioneer researcher William Gray predicted up to 15 tropical storms would form in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin, with seven growing into hurricanes.

Earlier forecasts had anticipated up 17 tropical storms, with nine strengthening into hurricanes, but the tropical oceans were cooler than last year and wind patterns were less conducive to storm development, they said.

Last year saw a record 28, including Katrina, the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Katrina killed more than 1,300 people.

(Additional reporting by Michael Christie)
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weatherman714


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Something to throw darts @ PostThu Aug 03, 2006 7:16 pm  Reply with quote  

I do have one more thing for everyone that still can't accept my apology. Here's a pic of me, print it out throw darts at it, put it on your computer and spray paint it, make it into a voo-doo doll. Don't care, it's done over with, I'm moving on with my life.

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Foolsbane


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SO... PostThu Aug 03, 2006 7:31 pm  Reply with quote  

What evidence do you have that proves the Airforce "sprayed" anything??

Just because you say they did doesn't make it so.

Is it possible that the wind sheer was a natural occurence...as has happened many, many times before in history of Atlantic storms?
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mr. jones





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PostThu Aug 03, 2006 8:20 pm  Reply with quote  

there is lots of evidence, but of course you'll have to study the material involved with chemtrail weather mod to know what it is.

the weather as of feb. 2006 is continually being manipulated in many different parts of the globe.

study the info so you can know the difference bewteen a normal sky and one laden with chems. actually it's not difficult to tell the difference but you'll have to be looking up daily to see the changes.

normal clouds are round and puffy, the chems are sprayed at a higher altitude to land on them and change their behaviour.

they destroy the clouds and turn them into crap, they tear them apart with HAARP and gwen_celltowers microwave radiatation.

the bad part is that the chems eventually reach your respiratory system and breach your immune system.

turning you into a mutant, that is if you manage to survive the attack.

if your immune system was weak to begin with, you spiral down into an illness merry go round, eventually not even being able to tie your shoe laces.

it's real, unfortunately most people are already mutants with no mind of their own.

And that's the final objective, a "mongrel" society.
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Last edited by mr. jones on Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Free World Order


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PostFri Aug 04, 2006 2:23 am  Reply with quote  

To ban or censor any great contributor of CTC is a crime and would be a great loss to the community. There will always be times when most of us release/vent anger or tension - this is actually natural in a controlled state and is what is to be expected bearing in mind the world we live in.


I am interested to read future posts by weatherman. I know weather models are not perfected and are evolving, there is one that many computer users are contributing to help predict our future weather. Since using the power of several hundred thousand personal computers is more powerful than the most advanced supercomputers it will help greatly to understand the effects of CO2, cloud cover, global dimming, global warming, cooling and aerosol depletion in the ozone layer and let us have more of an idea what the world will become in the next 50 - 150 years or so. Which is vital for the future generation - the future generation is now.

We are the future.

ERRORS CAN AND DO HAPPEN:

Weather Climate Change Prediction Software Error:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4923248.stm

This weather model was flawed and months of people's time and resources have been wasted. Now it is to be restarted again.

Do participate if you believe it will be put to good use.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4702636.stm




Error strikes 'BBC climate model'
Hands at a laptop keyboard. Image: BBC
Climateprediction.net uses the power of thousands of ordinary PCs
A "major error" has been discovered in the world's biggest online climate prediction project, backed by the BBC.

The fault in a Climateprediction.net model launched in February causes temperatures in past climates to rise quicker than seen in real observations.

The program, which runs on users' computers when they are idle, aims to generate forecasts of climate change.

The project scientists have now fixed the fault and say the data collected so far is still useful.

"At some point in the future, we may have done an experiment like this anyway," Myles Allen, principal investigator of the project told the BBC News website. "People have not been wasting their time."

Global dimming

Climateprediction.net was established more than two years ago, but a new computer model was launched in February this year in collaboration with BBC Four TV.

The simulation is more sophisticated than previous versions and provides the scientists, they say, with a more accurate representation of the real world, including an ocean that interacts with the atmosphere.

The experiment uses "distributed computing", in which the combined power of numerous PCs is tapped rather than using a single supercomputer.


What we've seen in the runs is the unadulterated impact of global warming
Myles Allen, principal investigator, Climateprediction.net
Each participant downloads a program that runs unique climatic simulations from 1920 to 2080 to build a picture of the possible range of outcomes.

The error in the climate models has been traced to a file that is responsible for introducing man-made sulphate emissions into the atmosphere.

Sulphate particles reflect sunlight back into space causing a cooling of the atmosphere, in a phenomenon known as "global dimming".

"What we've seen in the runs is the unadulterated impact of global warming which means that all of the models have warmed up too fast," Dr Allen said.

Big disappointment

The problem was picked up by scientists when a handful of the 200,000 people that have downloaded the program reached the end of the simulation.

An announcement by Nick Faull, project coordinator of Climateprediction.net, was posted on the website's message board as soon as the scientists realised that the experiment would have to be started again.

"I regret to announce that we've recently discovered a major error in one of the files used by the climate model," it read.


Globe showing different temperature bands. Image: BBC

Climateprediction.net

"It's a big disappointment to have to give you this news."

Simulations of the 20th century were deliberately included in the model to allow its accuracy to be checked against real world observations.

A BBC statement said that the fact that the error had been identified showed that the checks were working.

"It's something that would have been very hard to anticipate," the corporation said.

"We're very grateful to everyone taking part and we hope they will continue to participate now that the experiment is back on track."

However, the scientists say that all is not lost for the data collected over the last two months.

"Running a model without global dimming is exactly the kind of thing we do in modelling centres," Dr Allen said.

These attribution studies, as they are known, allow scientists to determine what factors have contributed to climate change.

"We have done the most comprehensive attribution study by mistake."

The data will be used at a later date to determine the contribution of global dimming to temperature changes in the 20th Century.

Problem solved

However, some of the participants in the project have questioned why the model was not tested thoroughly before its release.

"I can't believe that this program wasn't completely tested before being released to thousands of people around the world," reads a post on the Climateprediciton.net message board

The team behind the model says the error was introduced by a minor last-minute change to the program, which made it easier to download.

It would have taken between three and four months to run the model for faults.

The error has now been fixed and all computers running the model will be automatically restarted at 1920.

The results of the experiment were due to be announced as part of the Climate Chaos season of programmes on BBC Four this summer.

The season will still go ahead but the programme containing the results will now be delayed until enough people have had time to rerun the model.



Web Links:

http://www.climateprediction.net

http://www.bbc.co.uk/climatechange

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/hottopics/climatechange

Web Linked Article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4176988.stm

Last Updated: Tuesday, 23 August 2005, 16:19 GMT 17:19 UK

Is extreme weather down to climate change?
By Paul Rincon
BBC News science reporter

With fires raging through southern Europe - a region experiencing its worst drought for decades - and some parts of the continent submerged by floods, it is tempting to ascribe such extreme weather to the effects of global warming.

A firefighter looks on as fires rage in Moncao, Portugal Image: AFP
The wildfires are confounding attempts to contain them
But climate change researchers are reluctant to make this link.

"You can say that due to the Earth getting warmer there will be on average more extreme events," said Malcolm Haylock, of the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit, UK, "but you can't attribute any specific event to climate change."

Dozens of wildfires have been raging out of control across Portugal, confounding attempts to contain them.

Portugal, like other areas of southern Europe and North Africa, has been experiencing searing heat and drought this summer.

Meanwhile, floods have brought chaos to a large swathe of central Switzerland, triggering landslides and cutting roads and railway lines.

Growing consensus

There is a growing consensus, based on past climate records and other data, that greenhouse gas emissions are warming the Earth's climate.

Many climate scientists now believe the data points to global temperatures rising by about two-tenths of a degree C per decade for the foreseeable future.

But as far as the droughts and floods are concerned, climate scientists have found it more difficult to find long-term trends in rainfall.


Whole areas are under water

Enlarge Image
European weather is affected by a climate system called the North Atlantic Oscillation. This describes changes in atmospheric pressure at sea level as measured over Iceland and over the Azores.

"Over the last 50 years or so, there's been a trend to lower pressures over Iceland and higher pressures over the Azores in winter," said Dr Haylock.

The impact of this climate system reaches from the upper atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean.

But its most obvious impact over the last half century is a trend towards drier conditions in southern Europe and more extreme rainfall in northern Europe during winter.

Its effects during other seasons, such as summer, are not as clear. Local weather systems seem to play a larger role here.

Computer models

Dr Haylock said that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could not be linked to human-induced climate change.

Scientists simply do not have the long-term measurements to say either way.

Colimate model, climateprediction.net
Climate models can be used to predict future climate variation
However, computer models suggest that, as the climate gets hotter over the coming decades, the available water in the landmass may be reduced. This may in turn have knock on effects for global temperatures.

"When we run these climate models for future years, we find we were getting very, very hot days. These were so hot, they can't be explained just by more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," said Dr Haylock.

"Water on the ground cools the atmosphere around it a lot, and once this has dried out, the temperatures just accelerate. So there is some concern that these hot days may become more frequent over the next decade, but that is still uncertain."

As for the fires in Portugal, observers point out that poor land management and arson have also played their part in the devastation.
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weatherman714


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Natural Gas Surges in New York on Hurricane Threat, Heat Wav PostTue Aug 08, 2006 1:18 am  Reply with quote  

Natural Gas Surges in New York on Hurricane Threat, Heat Wave
Aug. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Natural-gas prices soared, nearing a six-month high on concern that Tropical Storm Chris will disrupt Gulf of Mexico production and on record demand for electricity to cool homes and buildings in the eastern U.S.

The threat of the storm, which is forecast to become a hurricane today or tomorrow, comes amid the worst heat wave in five years in the Northeast. Power plants burn more gas during periods of hot weather to meet air-conditioning needs.

``Prices are up sharply on dual concerns: the potential threat to supply from an imminent Hurricane Chris, and a surge in weather induced demand,'' said Jason Schenker, an economist with Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``The prospect of a hurricane that could shut in production is exacerbating price moves.''

Gas for September delivery rose 74.6 cents, or 9.9 percent, to $8.32 per million British thermal units at 10:39 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It's rallied 16 percent this week and reached $8.545 earlier, approaching the highest since Feb. 6.

Chris's maximum sustained winds had increased to 65 miles per hour, up from 40 yesterday, according to an 8 a.m. bulletin from the National Hurricane Center. A storm becomes a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 miles an hour. The center of the storm was about 65 miles north of St. Martin in the Caribbean Sea.

``Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Chris could become a hurricane later today or early Thursday,'' the center said.

Crude oil also rose on concern that Chris may threaten Gulf oil fields. Crude for September delivery climbed $1.09, or 1.5 percent, to $76 a barrel in New York.

Threat to Output

The Hurricane Center's 5-day projected track takes Chris into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend. Gas prices rise on tropical storm threats because of concern that output will be cut. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year shut more than 80 percent of Gulf gas production at its peak and sent prices higher than $14 per million Btu. About 9 percent of Gulf output remains offline because of those storms.

``The storm might increase in strength and disturb the rigs in the Gulf,'' said Gary Silverman, a trader at ABN Amro Inc. in New York. ``They're saying now it should become upgraded to a category 1 hurricane.''

Scientists use the five-category Saffir-Simpson scale to grade hurricanes. Category 1 storms are the weakest, with top wind speeds of 74 to 95 mph. Major hurricanes register Category 3 to Category 5, meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 Kilometers per hour).

The Atlantic storm season may bring as many as 10 hurricanes, according to an outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A normal season yields six hurricanes. Three tropical storms have formed so far this year, Alberto, Beryl and now Chris. Last year produced a record 15 hurricanes.

Heat Wave

New York City may reach 103 degrees Fahrenheit (39 Celsius) today, breaking the record for the date of 100 degrees from 1955, the National Weather Service said. New York hasn't seen 100- degree temperatures since Aug. 9, 2001. Boston was projected to reach 101 degrees, just short of the 102-degree record set in 1975.

Cooling needs will be double normal tomorrow in the Northeast, according to researcher Weather Derivatives in Belton, Missouri. U.S. demand will average 16 percent higher than normal tomorrow through Aug. 9, the forecaster said.

Gas is the third-largest source of fuel for U.S. electricity generators, behind coal and nuclear, according to the Energy Department. Power demand peaks in summer as people turn up air conditioners, sparking higher demand for electricity from gas- fired power plants.

Inventories

Hot weather has stoked utility demand for gas and limited the availability of supplies for placement in storage facilities. Storage companies recorded their first ever summertime withdrawal in the week ended July 21, according to the Energy Department.

The drop took stockpiles to 2.756 trillion cubic feet, 22 percent higher than the average for the past five years. The surplus of stored gas has shrunk since spring in part because of hot weather. Inventories were 63 percent above the five-year average at the start of April.

U.S. supplies may have gained by 20 billion cubic feet last week, according to the median estimate from 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. A gain of that size would compare to a five-year average increase of 62 billion and an increase last year of 38 billion. The Energy Department inventory report is expected tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. Washington time.
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Tenderflower





Joined: 01 Jun 2006
Posts: 109
PostTue Aug 08, 2006 2:14 pm  Reply with quote  

Interesting article, Weatherman, but could you tell us what the point is, aside from giving us more bad news about our economy? I thought that Hurricane Chris had dissipated- how did it resurrect itself? I'm sure you know.... Very Happy -Tenderflower
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