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ERNESTO

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weatherman714


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ERNESTO PostSun Aug 27, 2006 12:28 am  Reply with quote  

There's not a soul that can say I didn't warn people, or didn't forecast it....
From August 11,2006 9:30pm
"I ran the model for 8/11 tonight and found some concern for the period of August 29th through Sept 2nd. My model is showing a possible major hurricane approaching the Eastern US on Aug 29th. It all depends on the severity of the next heat wave on August 22nd. A major cold front expected for Sept 2nd, so hurricane strike region could be anywhere East of New Orleans along the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard."



000
WTNT45 KNHC 262105
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

ON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS
WELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION. HOW
MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS
DUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50
KT. WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE
CONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11. WHILE THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE
TRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS
INCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.
AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
BROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE
SLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A
SLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MORE
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH
SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO. IF THE MODELS ARE
CORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND
ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105
KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...
AND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO
MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO
HISPANIOLA OR CUBA.

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 75.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 19.4N 77.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.8N 79.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/1800Z 25.5N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 31/1800Z 28.0N 87.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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visual ray wizard





Joined: 09 Jul 2005
Posts: 461
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Nice call I am going out on the forecasting limb and say PostSun Aug 27, 2006 11:25 am  Reply with quote  

that Ernesto is going to strike WEST of New Orleans. Based on observations of prevailing weather patterns in the Central US I don't think the cold front is going to advance in the manner the computer models are predicting right now.

Can't wait to see the show that they are going to put on as they spray the hell out of the cold front and use that as the main steering mechanism to minimize damage from this storm which means protecting the oil platforms is the highest priority.

On the other hand what if mother nature creates these large storms in order to bring drought stricken areas of say Texas and rest of the areas in the red back into balance?



You can plainly see signs of weather engineering on the coast line of Texas as indicated in the green. There are not many States that have normal precipation. Notice how the Ohio Valley is holding it's own against the drought? I won't get side tracked with the orgone issues today.




Here is the 12 hour forecast and then the 24 hour forecast of the front.










The current front stalled out over the Ohio Valley is not going to advance much further which means the storm will track more to the West than what is being predicted. The key to steering Ernesto away from Texas will be the location and strength of the cold front in that state in particular since that is the area in which westerly high wind shears can be generated to turn the storm to the North and eventually Eastward.

However based on the theory that the parched regions of the US are acting like a magnet drawing storms to it to bring moisture levels back to normal. I don't believe that the southern part of that cold front is going to hold up as well as what is being predicted currently.

The current drought might have been aggravated by past efforts to steer hurricanes away from energy sensitive areas. Food for thought




This is the current 48 hour prediction
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weatherman714


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huh...? PostSun Aug 27, 2006 5:00 pm  Reply with quote  

Never mind the fact that the Central US Re-Set date is Sept 1st, but going west of New Orleans? I hope you didn't buy commodities with that forecast.

The USAF has been busying spraying a mid-level low pressure system about 700 miles NE of Enresto for the past 36 hours. This has caused the track shift from SW of Jamica to NE of Jamica and now projected to hit South Flordia. If it were upto me I'd have let Enresto go east of the Yuctan and let it strengthen to it's max intensity a day or two BEFORE it makes landfall. Remember Charlie?

It would make the landfall around midnight on August 30th/late August 29th. Chart says storm is east of Wilmington DE by late on the 1st. It's why I included Sept 2nd within the concern period, because of a possible New England Strike.
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visual ray wizard





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Interesting PostSun Aug 27, 2006 5:36 pm  Reply with quote  

will check out the spraying occuring 700 miles to the North East. I suppose my more westerly forecast is based on if it was left alone to go the path nature might have intended for it without regards to how the spraying will alter it's course away from the oil fields of the gulf.

The weather underground model also shows a steering front interacting with the storm to the South West of Ernesto.

What do you make of that?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

I'll check out the spraying to the north east. Thanks

Yup I found it and it does appear to be the prevalent steering force for the storm at this time.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east_loop.html

It makes a clean arc to the storm in the animated loop.
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weatherman714


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Sitting Here Chillin PostMon Aug 28, 2006 10:26 pm  Reply with quote  

Before I fell asleep after work, I'm sitting here chilling checking out Ernesto and I see this flare up of Chemtrails around Bermuda. Aha! The USAF is now going to walk Enresto into the NC/VA Coast to bring well needed rain to the region. These are the same exact regions the USAF hosed out of rain in late June when I told them specifically not to mess with the rain. Remember they sprayed around BWI and then points south into VA.
One can't help but wonder if they will repeat this scenario, or flood out the regions they hosed earlier in the summer. I don't see a happy medium with this cast of characters running the show.
Anyways here is the IR photo, I circled in yellow the chemtrails(clockwise) which should push Enresto back towards the west of the current track and bring him west of the Cheasepeake Bay in VA and up through MD.

[/img]
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Tenderflower





Joined: 01 Jun 2006
Posts: 109
PostTue Aug 29, 2006 1:03 pm  Reply with quote  

Nice Work boys! Now I just have to wonder why the Weather Manipulators are letting a hurricane come through at all. Is it to keep us "on our toes" or what?
Rolling Eyes -Tenderflower
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mr. jones





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Posts: 1899
PostTue Aug 29, 2006 6:17 pm  Reply with quote  


quote:
Nice Work boys! Now I just have to wonder why the Weather Manipulators are letting a hurricane come through at all. Is it to keep us "on our toes" or what?
-Tenderflower


they're not letting it.

what happens is that this year happens to be the "el niņo" year.

with an unusually higher amount of moisture "rain" coming in from the pacific and in this case the atlantic as well.

chemtrails can control weather in a normal year but during the "el niņo" year the control rate % goes down.

in other words it becomes a dice game.

I like rain "but" more rain means more clouds, and more clouds means more chemtrails to control them. (in this case but not necessarilly in all cases, remember chemtrails have multiple objectives)

That's what I "don't" like.

from april to june there were no chemtrails in my area until the rains started to come in july.

chemtrails made their summer debut.
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mosquito2376





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Location: Central Kansas Chemtrails
Cold Fronts PostWed Aug 30, 2006 3:19 am  Reply with quote  

Watch the cold fronts, the planes almost always proceed the cold fronts! Last week, we had three heavy days of the thick white crap before a cold front moved through our state. They are using the fronts to manipulate these storms. I seen it last year in October, a powerful cold front kept one hurricaine from moving into the Gulf. I even heard a weatherman at the time make a remark about how particularly "strong" that cold front had been.

This Friday another cold front will be passing through our state (Kansas), I predict the start of a new round of spraying tommorow (Wednesday).
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weatherman714


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El Nino PostWed Aug 30, 2006 11:47 am  Reply with quote  


quote:
they're not letting it.

what happens is that this year happens to be the "el niņo" year.

with an unusually higher amount of moisture "rain" coming in from the pacific and in this case the atlantic as well.

chemtrails can control weather in a normal year but during the "el niņo" year the control rate % goes down.

in other words it becomes a dice game.



If you've read NASA's latest ENSO outlook, it's still a "La Nina". That's garbage, it's been a moderate El Nino since Mid-April. I wouldn't necessarily call "El Nino" a dice game. In the current set up with the "broken" re-set dates things are very much a dice game, but if you compared them to the moderate El Nino in the summer of '04,when the "re-set" dates were "ordered and continous", the weather was much easier to modify. When my chart points to and we finally get a "Strong" El Nino, if the timing is right the "re-set" dates will become more ordered and it will be easier to modify the weather once again.
The biggest mistake the scientific community makes is that it takes a long time for the atmosphere to respond to changes in the ENSO cycle. The atmosphere changes with the ENSO cycle practically over night and does not take months to develop.
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Tenderflower





Joined: 01 Jun 2006
Posts: 109
PostWed Aug 30, 2006 2:13 pm  Reply with quote  

For those of us who don't know what an "ENSO" is, I wikipedia-ed it and found this:
quote:
El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon.


Here's the Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o
[/url]

So much to learn, so little time!
Very Happy -Tenderflower
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