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Gabrielle beginning to veer off computer model tracks

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visual ray wizard





Joined: 09 Jul 2005
Posts: 461
Location: United States
Gabrielle beginning to veer off computer model tracks PostSun Sep 09, 2007 12:38 pm  Reply with quote  

as the cold front stalls over the Ohio valley. Watch this storm go way farther westward and in land to bring much needed drought relief from the Carolinas and points beyond. (Oh well it does appear to be turning now and keeping most of the precipitation out at sea...too bad we could have used a good soaking from this one.



Here is the latest discussion from the National Weather Service

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 09, 2007

reports from the Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Gabrielle has strengthened. The aircraft reported a
peak flight-level wind of 61 kt about 2 nmi southeast of the
center...which has reformed within the deep convection underneath
the mid-level rotation oberserved overnight. The flight-level wind
supports an initial intensity of 45 kt. While it is possible that
this mesoscale vortex could dissipate before Gabrielle makes
landfall...it has persisted and built downward over the past
several hours and it seems prudent to assume that these trends
could continue for several more hours. The forecast intensity is
therefore increased to 55 kt...although it should be emphasized
that the increased winds extend only a few miles from the center.
A slight westward adjustment has been made to the 12 hour forecast
point...and the wind radii have been adjusted to reflect the new
intensity forecast.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/1200z 34.2n 76.4w 45 kt
12hr VT 09/1800z 35.3n 76.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 10/0600z 36.6n 74.8w 55 kt
36hr VT 10/1800z 38.0n 72.5w 50 kt
48hr VT 11/0600z 39.2n 69.6w 40 kt
72hr VT 12/0600z...absorbed by extratropical low

$$
forecaster Franklin


Bet they change the slight westward later today as they observe the cold front not progressing eastward as previously forecasted.

That is what I see going on so the sheering force that will turn Gabrielle is not off the coast but a little closer towards land. Latest update


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 09, 2007

Gabrielle is a very small tropical cyclone with the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity confined to the southwestern
quadrant. Recent radar imagery indicates that the strongest
reflectivities are no longer wrapping around the small
circulation... which has separated a little from the convection...
probably due to northerly wind shear. In addition...velocity data
from the radar suggest that the winds have not increased during the
past few hours. Although the aircraft that just flew through the
center has not sampled the deep convection in the southwestern
quadrant...it has not found any winds to suggest that Gabrielle has
strengthened. Since Gabrielle is about to interact with land and
northerly shear is increasing...the official intensity forecast has
been slightly lowered.

The initial motion is 360/9...and radar imagery hints that the turn
to the right is beginning. Gabrielle is currently moving around
the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located over the
western Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to accelerate
northwestward into the westerlies within 24 hours. The track
guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the official
track forecast is an update of the previous advisory. Gabrielle is
forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical

It does appear to be reaacting to the cold front and beginning a northward turn although it has lingered for most of the day in it's present position and thus the greater uncertainty between the weather models as to where it will eventually track.
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