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2008 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Jul 05, 2008 1:56 pm  Reply with quote  

"Bertha" update, this report from the experts is quite comical to say the least, but at least it is near honest.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Watching Bertha
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Bertha was located near 16.5 north and 35.3 west, or about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Bertha is moving west-northwest at about 21 mph, and both her speed and direction of movement should continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Most of the tropical storm force winds are north of Bertha's center of rotation. Its estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb, or 29.53 inches of mercury.

By tonight, Bertha will be about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It now appears that Bertha will not "split" the large ridge of high pressure centered to its north. Bertha will be forced to stay south of this ridge and continue moving slightly north of west for the foreseeable future. What happens to its intensity? Right now, we believe a slow strengthening or remaining steady course will occur until Monday. The atmosphere near Bertha has little wind shear right now, but beginning on Monday, increasing amounts of shear will affect Bertha. Also around this time, drier air in the middle layers of the atmosphere may become entrenched in her circulation, which may curtail intensification. On the other hand, Bertha is currently over relatively "cool" water right now, but as it travels west-northwest, the warm will generally warm up, which is good for strengthening.

In conclusion, not all the factors that result in a change of intensity with a tropical storm point to strengthening. Actually, two out of the the main three favor weakening beginning Monday. However, if its circulation can hold together, conditions may eventually come together by midweek for an increase in strength. Well, no one said watching and forecasting tropical storms is easy, but it sure is interesting. Bertha is at least 4-5 days way from affecting any land directly, so we have plenty of time here at AccuWeather.com to keep you updated on the path and intensity of Tropical Storm Bertha.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Mark Paquette

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Jul 07, 2008 1:39 pm  Reply with quote  

Houston, we have a hurricane... The season's first Atlantic hurricane is now up and running west, "Bertha" has achieved a qualifying speed and is now officially the first of the Atlantic 2008 season.

quote:
Bertha Now a Hurricane
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Bertha was located at 19.3 north, 50.2 west, or about 845 miles east of the northern Leeward islands. Bertha is moving west-northwest at 17 mph. Maximum-sustained winds have increased to 75 mph with higher gusts. Wind speeds are expected to continue to increase over the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds currently extend outwards 25 miles from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending 115 miles from the center of the storm.

We still believe that Bertha will now stay south of a large ridge of high pressure located across the central Atlantic. The question with her track is: what happens when she moves west of the ridge axis? Generally, tropical systems will be steered by the backside of the ridge more northerly and eventually even northeasterly. When and where does this northerly jog in track occur? The current thinking is this turn does not happen in the short term, at least through midweek.

With plenty of moisture, warm waters and a low-sheared environment immediately ahead of her on her westward track, Bertha is expected to intensify over the next 12-24 hours. However, by tonight she will encounter a more sheared environment, which tends to "rip" tropical systems apart and not allow for development.

Looking further into the future, conditions for intensification seem to improve starting midweek for Bertha. This is assuming that she stays on her basic west-northwest track and is not pulled more north by the backside of the ridge. Pulling north would lead to the weakening of Bertha, as she would run into strong wind shear. Since we are thinking that she does not get pulled too far to the north, further intensification may take place after midweek as wind shear decreases, water temperatures warm up and she has plenty of moisture to work with.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, a couple of tropical waves are found today, but development is not expected.

By AccuWeather Meteorologists Matt Keefe and Brian Wimer


Keeping "an eye" on the storm, and "the other" over the mainland, I know you know were watching like eagles/hawks...
I think if I were able to manipulate the weather over the US right now, I'd be given the southern states i.e. the Georgia, Florida region, a big heads up, cause I think I'd have to get them a little wet "pulling" down a system to "push" away that hurricane. Sure glad I can't, could you imagine the responsibility in that??? Talk about playing God...
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostMon Jul 07, 2008 4:04 pm  Reply with quote  

Here is an enhanced IR loop of the storms (Bertha) current position, and the current activity over the continental US...
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostMon Jul 07, 2008 10:11 pm  Reply with quote  

"Bertha" is already tracking @ CAT3, and is picking up speed and intensity.
Experts are giving a just-in-case warning to those with interest in Bermuda and those along the Atlantic US coast, because at this point in time they are unable to form a conclusive forecast on the path or intensity of the storm. They seem to be as uncertain about this storm's forecast as I am... Oh yea, but I'm not even close to being a meteorologist, so my guess is probably as good as anyone's... Here is their report,
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Hurricane Bertha Strengthening
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located at 20.1 north and 52.1 west, or about 730 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward islands. Bertha is moving west-northwest at 12 mph, slower than it was Sunday. Maximum-sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Wind speeds are expected to continue to increase over the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward 25 miles from the center, with tropical storm-force winds extending 115 miles from the center of the storm.

We believe that Bertha will stay south of a large ridge of high pressure located across the central Atlantic. The question with its track is what happens when she moves west of the ridge axis? Generally, tropical systems will be steered by the back side of the ridge more northerly and eventually even northeasterly. Because of the uncertainty of the path later in the week, due to weak steering currents at that time, interests in both Bermuda and along the Atlantic coast of the U.S. are advised to stay abreast of the situation.

With plenty of moisture, warm waters and a low-sheared environment immediately ahead of the track, Bertha is expected to intensify over the next 24-48 hours, making it a potential very dangerous storm. Bertha, now a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, could reach as high as Category 4 status the next couple of days before weakening late in the week. The storm is expected to also continue to reduce its forward motion in the coming several-day period as it enters the weaker steering flow environment.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, a couple of tropical waves are found today, but development with them is not expected.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Alex Sosnowski

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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Location: Earth
PostTue Jul 08, 2008 2:03 pm  Reply with quote  

Update on "Bertha's" progress... She is still tracking west northwest @ CAT3, but the experts say, (paraphrased) "she might could stall". Still a wait and see game with this one.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Hurricane Bertha Still Spinning in the Atlantic
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located at 21.4 north and 53.3 west, or about 1,035 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bertha is moving northwest at 10 mph and maximum-sustained winds have held steady at 120 mph with higher gusts. Wind speeds are expected to hold steady over the next 12-24 hours with a gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward 30 miles from the center, with tropical storm-force winds extending 115 miles from the center of the storm.

Bertha will continue to track on the outer periphery of the Atlantic high which is now centered over the central Atlantic. However, Bertha is a major hurricane and there is a chance Bertha will become even stronger over the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the storm is more likely to stay steady in intensity over the rest of today. Strong hurricanes are more guided by higher-level winds. Those high-level winds are projected to become more southerly ahead of Bertha within the next two to four days. This will cause Bertha to continue to move northwest, then perhaps a more northerly course. If this trend continues, the forecast track will have to be adjusted more to the right, or east, than we now have it. The higher-level winds that will be guiding Bertha are not expected to be real strong. As a result, Bertha should slow down. There is even some chance Bertha could stall at some point, but this is not certain.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, tropical waves along 38 west, along 77 west and along 95/96 west are very disorganized and pose no threat for development during the next few days.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Meteorologist Matt Keefe


The storm is taking on a new shape, that to this observer looks quite larger but less organized presently. Just my unprofessional opinion.
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starman1





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PostTue Jul 08, 2008 2:55 pm  Reply with quote  

After looking at this mornings 12 hour satellite loop of the storm, I would venture to guess "Bertha" is about to quickly become a none event, unless it can somehow re-invent it's self, because now it appears to be coming apart at the seams and losing its organization as well.
Keep in mind this is just my uneducated non-professional guess, @ 7:53 am PST...
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starman1





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PostWed Jul 09, 2008 12:00 am  Reply with quote  

Only eight hours later and this is what "Bertha" looks like now @ 4:55 PM PST...

I listened to the radio weather guys report two downgrades while I was at work today, and thought hey, not a bad guess. I said I thought that might be what would happen when I reported this morning.
Don't worry I don't plan on quiting my day job any time soon...
The storm is still tracking @CAT1, so it is still a hurricane, and thus a potential threat.
Keeping the watch for what ever is next.
Here is the latest report...

quote:
Bertha Weaker but still a hurricane
As of 5:00 PM EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located near 22.7 north and 54.8 west, or about 900 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bertha is moving northwest at 12 mph and maximum-sustained winds have dropped to 85 mph with higher gusts. Bertha should continue to weaken tonight.

Bertha is still be guided by a strong Atlantic high pressure area that extends from near Bermuda to the Azores. An upper level trough of lower pressure is causing a wind flow from southwest to northeast in the path of Bertha. This has caused Bertha to move on a more northwesterly course and has also caused stronger shear over the hurricane. The upper level part of Bertha is getting blown off to the northeast causing the whole system to become tilted into the northeast. This tilt does not allow a hurricane to strengthen and the more tilted the upper levels are with respect to the lower levels the harder it is for the storm to stay organized. So, as long as Bertha encounters strong shear the system will continue to weaken. There is some chance the hurricane might move into less shear over the weekend and could intensify slightly again.

The upper level system causing the shear and helping to turn Bertha will create a weakness in the Atlantic high pressure and this will cause Bertha to track more northerly over the weekend. The steering flow over Bertha is expected to weaken further and Bertha could stall for a time. As long as Bertha keeps moving and stays on a northerly course it will stay well away from land including the island of Bermuda through this weekend. Bertha should pass 250 to 300 miles east of Bermuda on Sunday. The only affects on that island will be increased surf which could reach 10-12 feet during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Across the rest of the Atlantic basin we are monitoring tropical waves along 88 west and along 46 west. Both are moving westerly at about 8 degrees longitude per day. We see no support for tropical development with either tropical wave. A large area of disturbed weather over western Africa will become the next tropical wave to emerge off that continent into the western Atlantic sometime tomorrow or on Thursday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

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starman1





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PostWed Jul 09, 2008 2:30 pm  Reply with quote  

This is a strange update. "Bertha" has lost a lot of it's strength, and I think most of us would call that a "GOOD" thing. I was taken aback when I read the report from the accuweather team this morning, the way they worded the report sounds like they are rooting for the storm...
Check it out.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Bertha Losing Steam
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located near 23.5 north and 56.5 west, or about 790 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bertha is moving northwest at 10 mph, and maximum-sustained winds have dropped to 75 mph with higher gusts.

Bertha continues to be guided by a strong Atlantic high pressure area that extends from near Bermuda to the Azores. An upper-level trough of lower pressure is causing a wind flow from southwest to northeast in the path of Bertha. This has caused Bertha to move on a more northwesterly course and has also caused stronger shear over the hurricane. The good news for Bertha is the western portions of circulation indicate the shear may be weakening. This could give the storm a modest increase in strength over the next day or so. The storm will continue on its northwest path, at least through Friday when it could make a turn to the north.

Across the rest of the Atlantic Basin we are monitoring tropical waves along 92 west and along 49/50 west. Both are moving westerly at about 8 degrees longitude per day. We see no support for tropical development with either tropical wave. A large area of disturbed weather over western Africa will become the next tropical wave to emerge off that continent into the western Atlantic sometime tomorrow or on Thursday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Meteorologist Eric Reese.


Have we lost our perspective since KATRINA!!! Anything that is "GOOD" for a hurricane that "may" (initial reports) reach Bermuda or the Atlantic US coast, IS NOT "GOOD" FOR US!!! What the hell are you guys thinking anyway???
I know, I know, lighten up we were just making a comment about the storms chances for growth etc. etc. etc. Whatever, these things are killers of men/women/children and when they die we rejoice. Nothing is "good news" for them.
I guess the fires up here in Northern California got me all fired up...
Must be something in all that SMOKE!!!
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostThu Jul 10, 2008 2:25 am  Reply with quote  

"Bertha" is at it again, revving up to CAT2 with predictions of even greater intensity again. With all the anomalies this storm is presenting with its starts and stops, it bears intense watching. As will the activity over the greater eastern USA as it approaches the Atlantic seaboard...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Bertha Strengthens Again
As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located near 24.8 north and 58.1 west, or about 660 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bertha is moving northwest at 12 mph, and maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph with higher gusts.

Bertha has become a stronger hurricane faster than expected due to weakening shear. The shear was created by a weak upper-level disturbance that moved across the North Atlantic quicker than expected. Bertha has been in warm water over the past few days, and it is no surprise that once the shear dropped off, the hurricane intensified. Bertha is moving northwestward into the higher latitudes. As a hurricane moves to higher latitudes in warmer water with minimal shear, there is a greater chance for intensification. Bertha should therefore continue to intensify and could become a Category 3 hurricane once again. Our main concern with Bertha is its potential effects on the island of Bermuda. Current computer forecasts have consistently suggested that Bertha should stay east of Bermuda. The latest model output shows Bertha passing within 180 to 300 miles east of Bermuda Sunday. At this point, all interests on Bermuda should continue to closely monitor this potentially dangerous hurricane. Large southeasterly swells created by Bertha are expected to begin reaching Bermuda tonight with large swells continuing through the weekend. Bertha might slow down and even stall near 30 north and 60 west during Saturday and Sunday as an upper-level system passing north of the hurricane pulls away. Another upper-level system will move off the East Coast of the United States Monday, and this should nudge Bertha farther northward and perhaps more to the northeast away from Bermuda.

Across the rest of the Atlantic Basin, we are monitoring tropical waves along 96 west, along 52 west and along 32 west. All three are moving westerly at about 6-8 degrees longitude per day. We see no support for tropical development with these tropical waves.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Alex Sosnowski and Dan Kottlowski

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visual ray wizard





Joined: 09 Jul 2005
Posts: 461
Location: United States
I have been observing massive spraying over the Ohio Valley PostFri Jul 11, 2008 12:26 am  Reply with quote  

today as the USAF attempts to strengthen the cold front that will eventually push Bertha away from the US mainland. You can see the first line of defense right now is being sprayed just north west of the storm. That is an ongoing effort to reflect sunlight and build a cold air mass large enough to push the storm away.

Based on aerial observations today Bertha is going to track farther west by north west than what the computer models are predicting now. Just like you starman I am offering my unprofessional opinion and using gut instincts.

So Bermuda watch out! It is going track much closer than what is being predicted as of today in my humble opinion.

Check out these maps...


(EDITED 7/15/08,,, LIVE FEED LINK, NO LONGER RELEVANT TO POST DESCRIPTION(starman1))
http://images.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphicLoop/sfcmap_None_anim.gif


Very interesting shear pulling moisture from the storm and flowing directly towards Bermuda. Most likely an ongoing weather control experiment in which the storm is being attacked from multiple fronts including spraying the ridge as well as irregular seeding of clouds with both rain making and rain inhibiting polymers. It looks like it is getting smacked from all directions.

Of course well have all been educated about atmospheric reset dates and how nature always tries to bring herself back into balance. With that in mind, if we artificially steer this one away from where it is supposed to go then perhaps mother nature will cook up and even bigger one next time who knows how this is all interconnected.

(EDITED7/15/08,,, LIVE FEED LINK, NO LONGER RELEVANT TO POST DESCRIPTION(starman1))
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif
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Being one with nature never felt so good!
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Jul 11, 2008 1:38 pm  Reply with quote  

"Bertha" is still holding on, but to a lesser degree of intensity @ CAT1 as it gets nearer to Bermuda.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Bertha Still Category 1 Hurricane
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located near 28.0 north and 61.7 west, or about 350 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving northwestward at 7 mph. Bertha weakened slightly Thursday afternoon but is still a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph. The minimum central pressure is estimated at 980 millibars, or 28.94 inches of mercury.

Bertha continues to track to the northwest as of early Friday morning. Although early in the day Thursday convection was becoming more intense around the center and the eye more pronounced, there has been warming of the cloud tops and a less organized eye during the evening hours. Because of this Bertha probably has not showed any appreciable change in strength. Bertha remains over relatively warm waters and in a low shear environment so there so there is room for some increase in strength for the next day or two. Bertha should hold its intensity for the next couple of days with brief strengthening possible later Saturday into Sunday. As Bertha gets farther north and waters begin to cool, it is likely that the storm will weaken Sunday and Monday.

The main concern with respect to Bertha will be its impacts on Bermuda. Large swells, rough surf and high waves are starting to batter the island, and because Bertha will slow down as it makes its northward turn, rough surf and high waves will continue through the weekend into early next week as well. The center of Bertha should make its closest pass to Bermuda late Sunday when it is about 120 miles east of the island. Bertha will probably come close enough for some outer rainbands to reach the island, and there may be tropical storm-force wind gusts as well. A westward shift in the track of Bertha would mean that Bermuda would receive a larger impact from the storm, so the island and all those with interests on the island need to carefully watch the storm over the next few days and keep checking back with the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center for frequent updates.

Beyond the weekend, Bertha will continue its north to northeastward track before it may interact with an upper-level system that will move off the East Coast of the United States Monday. If this system comes into play it will steer Bertha to the northeast, but some of the latest information shows that this upper system weakens before it reaches Bertha. This would mean that Bertha could slow even further or possibly stall. If this happens, there isn't much that would steer Bertha in any particular direction. Though one thing is clear, if Bertha remains over the same are for too long it will likely use up the favorable water in the area and will probably weaken.

Across the rest of the Atlantic Basin, we are monitoring tropical waves are along 65 west and 39 west. All three are moving westerly at about 6-8 degrees longitude per day. We see no support for development with these tropical waves.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Matthew Rinde

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starman1





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PostSat Jul 12, 2008 1:56 pm  Reply with quote  

"Bertha" appears to have stalled for the moment but maintains CAT1 strength...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Bertha Barely Moves North
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located near 29.7 north and 62.9 west, or about 205 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, moving north-northwestward at 5 mph. Maximum-sustained winds remain near 90 mph with some higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is estimated at 976 millibars, or 28.82 inches of mercury. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the island of Bermuda.

Bertha continues to track ever so slowly to the north-northwest. It will turn more to the north over the course of this afternoon and continue to move very slow. As of Saturday morning, dry air continued to work its way into the center of the storm with warming cloud tops on the north side of the storm. The eyewall appears very ragged and not well pronounced and will take a while before it begins to look better. Even though the hurricane is not looking to get organized at this point, it is in relatively warm water with a low-shear environment. There is the possibility for this hurricane to strengthen briefly to a Category 2 hurricane at some point in the next 24 to 36 hours. If it does strengthen to a Category 2, it will weaken back to a Category 1 as it moves into cooler water next week.

As the storm drifts north, it will pass Bermuda, about 120 miles to the east. This should occur sometime late tomorrow or even on Monday. The main impacts on Bermuda will be large swells, rough surf and high waves. Also, winds will begin to increase this afternoon and may reach gale force tonight and last through early on Monday.

Some of the latest computer guidance shows Bertha possibly going stationary east or northeast of Bermuda sometime early next week. If this occurs, Bermuda may experience a prolonged period of rough surf and windy conditions.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Andrew Ulrich


Meanwhile, out in the East Pacific, "Elida" has been given a name, and is the 5th officially named storm out there. Experts predictions are less than alarming for this one...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Tropical Storm Elida in the Pacific
Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 12.5 north and 96.7 west and is about 220 miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts and the central pressure is 1005 mb. This storm is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph and is expected to continue in this general path over the next 24 hours. Another area to watch is located near 110 west, just south of the coast of southern Mexico. The weak area of low pressure that had formed along this wave has pulled away from the system, leaving it in a much weaker state as it drifts westward. This system may try to reorganize over the next day or two; however, tropical formation is not expected at this time. By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister and Meteorologist Andrew Ulrich
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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Location: Earth
PostSun Jul 13, 2008 1:44 pm  Reply with quote  

"Bertha" has managed to hold its position and strength for nearly 24 hours. Experts claim that if it continues to do this it would suck the life out of the waters it needs to sustain itself. I guess they don't remember the one that formed in cold waters out in the Atlantic a few years back. I remember a female expert saying, (paraphrased) "there is no reason for that hurricane to be forming over those cold waters, and I'm not going to try and make one up". (I'll look for the exact quote) Anyway, here is the report...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Bertha at a Standstill
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located near 29.8 north and 62.5 west, or about 220 miles southeast of Bermuda and is nearly stationary. Maximum-sustained winds of 75 mph barely classify Bertha as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The minimum central pressure was 985 millibars, or 29.09 inches of mercury.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the island of Bermuda.

Bertha's latest weakening has largely come from the hurricane itself. The storm has been nearly stationary over the past 24 hours, allowing upwelling to occur in waters beneath the hurricane. Upwelling brings cooler water to the surface, cutting off the very warm surface waters that hurricanes thrive in. The timing of when Bertha begins to move northward again will determine if it remains a hurricane or weakens into a tropical storm on Sunday into Sunday night.

As the eye of the storm drifts north, it is expected to pass near Bermuda, about 100 miles to the east, although there can be slight variations in Bertha's movement. The main impacts on Bermuda will be large swells and rough surf, especially along the eastern coast. Heavy rain along with tropical storm-force winds can impact the island through the end of the weekend. Up to 4 inches of rainfall can be expected as the storm slowly moves past the island on Monday and Monday night. The storm is eventually expected to drift farther north and east through the end of next week as an upper-level trough pushes off the East Coast of the U.S. Conditions across Bermuda should steadily improve on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Another threat from this storm will be the dangerous rip currents that will plague the East Coast beaches over the next few days as Bertha slowly progress toward the north and then east. Large swells and strong rip currents will be seen up and down the East Coast though the early part of the week ahead.


By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister



Meanwhile, out west in the east pacific, "Elida" is picking up the pace and is also very near hurricane strength...

quote:
Elida Strengthening Toward Hurricane Status
As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Tropical Storm Elida was centered near 14.8 north and 103.0 west, about 250 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Sustained winds are 65 mph with higher gusts and the central pressure had decreased to 29.35 inches. This storm is moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph and is expected to continue in this general path over the next couple of days with some slowing of forward speed. There is a possibility that Elida could strengthen into a hurricane over the next 24 to 48 hours before it moves over cooler waters and gradually weakens. Another area to watch is located about 250 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. There is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance, however these storms have been diminishing over the past 12 hours. This disturbance is going to have a tough time strengthening as it drifts westward into cooler waters over the next few days. By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister
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starman1





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PostMon Jul 14, 2008 2:41 pm  Reply with quote  

"Bertha", no longer holding its hurricane title, is moving on as it passes near Bermuda. It appears to be a threat averted for the most part, leaving Bermuda a little wind blown and wet, hopefully that is it for this one...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Bertha Nears Bermuda; Watching the Central Atlantic
As of 8 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Bertha was located near 31.6 north and 63.8 west, or about 75 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bertha has picked up forward speed, and this trend is expected to continue on Monday. Maximum-sustained winds are at 65 mph with higher gusts. The storm will slide to the east of Bermuda over the next couple of days and then away from Bermuda during the workweek. The minimum central pressure was 990 millibars, or 29.23 inches of mercury.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the island of Bermuda.

As the center of the storm drifts north, it is expected to pass within about 50 miles of Bermuda. The main impacts on Bermuda will be large swells and rough surf, especially along the eastern coast. Heavy rain along with tropical storm-force winds can impact the island through the end of the weekend. Up to 4 inches of rainfall can be expected as the storm slowly moves past the island on Monday and Monday night. The storm is eventually expected to drift farther north and east through the end of next week as an upper-level trough pushes off the East Coast of the United States. Conditions across Bermuda should steadily improve heading into Wednesday.

Another threat from this storm will be the dangerous rip currents that will plague the East Coast beaches over the next few days as Bertha slowly progresses toward the north and then east. Large swells and strong rip currents will be seen up and down the East Coast through the next few days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we continue to monitor a strong tropical wave located about 1,400 miles east of the southern Windward islands. A 1008 mb low is located along the axis of this wave and satellite imagery shows a counter-clockwise spin near the low center. Moderate to strong convection is associated with this wave and there is a good chance for tropical development in the next day or two.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister


The action is building now in the East Pacific, with the second hurricane of this season for the Pacific side gettting up to speed, "Elida" now being reported a CAT1. Expert predictions early on appear for this one to be a fizzler as it moves on into "cooler waters"... We'll keep a watchin with eyes wide open...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Elida Becomes Category 1 Hurricane
As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Elida has become the second hurricane of the East Pacific season. Elida was centered near 16.2 north and 108.2 west, about 475 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Sustained winds are 75 mph with higher gusts and the central pressure remains at 29.15 inches. This storm is moving to the west-northwest at 16 mph and is expected to continue in this general path over the next couple of days. Elida is expected to remain a hurricane into Tuesday morning before it moves over cooler waters and gradually weakens. Another area to watch is located about 250 miles south of Guatemala and is moving to the west. The showers and thunderstorms with this system have weakened over the past several hours; however, the conditions in this area will be conducive for tropical cyclone development over the next few days. This will allow for possible slow development into a tropical system. By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister
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PostTue Jul 15, 2008 2:00 pm  Reply with quote  

"Bertha" has cleared Bermuda headed north.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Bertha Moves North of Bermuda
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Bertha was located near 34.7 north and 64.2 west, or about 190 miles north-northeast of Bermuda. Bertha has maximum-sustained winds of 70 mph with gusts over 80 mph. The storm has a minimum central pressure of 995 millibars, or 29.38 inches of mercury, and moving north-northeast at 9 mph. Bertha is a strong tropical storm and may become a hurricane again during the day on Tuesday. The tropical storm warning has been discontinued for Bermuda.

During the evening hours of Monday night, Bertha continued to move away from Bermuda at a modest rate of 9 mph. Latest satellite and land-based radar show that the heaviest rain has now moved away from the island, although squally showers are likely to continue overnight before decreasing on Tuesday. The strongest winds on the island are now gone with the strongest winds recorded at L.F. Wade International Airport being a gust of 68 mph recorded at 4:55 p.m. However, along with the squally showers overnight, winds are likely to gust past tropical storm force at times through at least Tuesday morning before slowly diminishing after that. Very rough, dangerous surf will affect the island through Wednesday. Dangerous rip currents could affect some coastal areas even until the end of the week. The inflow and moisture drawn into Bertha will continue to move over the small island on Tuesday and even on Wednesday, causing gusty winds and showers. Winds will drop off gradually over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Bertha has been tracking a little east of due north since Monday evening and is expected to turn more easterly on Tuesday morning. There is still ample room over the next 24 hours for Bertha to become a hurricane before once again becoming under the influence of a less favorable environment, cooler waters and shear. After Bertha's easterly turn, a turn southeastward will occur during the next couple of days, finally moving on a course more toward the northeast by the end of the week. This wavy track will keep Bertha in marginally warm water if the shear does not increase as suggested on recent computer forecasts.

We continue to closely monitor a strong tropical wave located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. A 1010 mb low is located along the axis of this wave at around 12 north, and satellite imagery continues to show a counter-clockwise rotation in the clouds near the low pressure center. This would be depression number 3. Computer forecasts suggest this system will start to affect the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, then track just south of the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday night and Friday. Since this system is only in the formative stages, the model output might be very unreliable at this time. All interests in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin islands and Puerto Rico should pay attention to the future movement of this system.

Elsewhere, we are tracking tropical waves along 65 west, south of 18 north, and an area of thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. The tropical wave along 65 west appears to be moving west at about 7-8 degrees longitude per day and shows no signs of development, both in satellite data and in model data. The area of thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas remains very disorganized and under the influence of strong shear created by a weak upper-level trough with an axis along the west coast of Florida. An upper-level low will form out of this upper-level trough, causing a surface low to form along or near the southeastern coast of the United States later this week. That low pressure area will be carefully watched for possible development.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Ken Clark and Dan Kottlowski




"Elida" still showing signs of life in the Pacific, but experts predict not for long...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Category 1 Elida Churns Westward
As of 2:00 p.m. PDT, Elida remains a Category 1 hurricane and is centered near 16.2 north and 111.3 west, about 470 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Sustained winds were 85 mph with higher gusts, and the central pressure was 28.97 inches or 981 mb. This storm is moving to the west at 12 mph and is expected to continue in this general path over the next couple of days. The hurricane should start to move on Tuesday as it passes south of higher pressure to the north. Elida should remain a hurricane into Tuesday afternoon, then slowly weaken as it moves over cooler waters.

Elida will have no direct impact on any landmass for the next several days.

A tropical wave along 96 west has a low pressure area roughly near 4 north and 96 west. This area of disturbed weather has no organized features at this time. However, we have seen strong thunderstorms pulse around this weak low pressure area at times. If these thunderstorms become more persistent and develop a general cyclonic motion, this system could become a tropical depression, and even a storm, within the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
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