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2008 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Aug 08, 2008 1:52 pm  Reply with quote  

"Hernan" is nearing hurricane strength but experts say "will pose no threat to land" hope their right... Another storm lurks southeast of Hawaii, but it is classed as a Central Pacific storm named "Kika". And, the forecasting experts also claim it poses no direct threat to the Islands of Hawaii...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Tropical Storms Hernan and Kika
Tropical Storm Hernan is currently located near 15.0 north and 118.9 west, or approximately 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. It is moving west at close to 13 mph with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. The system is expected to decrease in forward speed slightly within the next few days. Hernan could gradually strengthen into a hurricane today, but will pose no threat to land.
In the central Pacific, Tropical Storm Kika is centered to the southeast of Hawaii. It is located near 11.4 north and 152.3 west, about 780 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. This system is expected to keep a westward movement with only a slight jog to the north, posing no direct threat to the Hawaiian Islands. Kika could slowly gather strength over the next few days.
There are other areas of concern that we are monitoring. A wave along 105 west is moving westward at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Another wave along 136 west is moving westward at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Neither of these waves are expected to develop over the next few days.
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Matthew Rinde, Carrie McCabe
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Aug 09, 2008 1:38 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Hernan" is holding @ CAT2 in the East Pacific, but is not expected to maintain it's strength as it moves further into the Pacific.
Kika in the Central Pacific has been reclassified as Tropical Storm once again, but experts say it poses no direct threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Hernan Holds Steady; Kika Upgraded
As of 2 a.m. PDT, Hernan strengthened slightly with maximum-sustained winds near 100 mph, along with higher gusts. Hernan is currently located near 15.5 north and 122.6 west, or approximately 970 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. It is moving west-northwestward at close to 10 mph, with similar motion expected for the next few days. The storm poses no threat to land and is expected to weaken within the next 24-48 hours.
In the central Pacific, Kika, which was a tropical depression on Friday afternoon, has strengthened back to a tropical storm. It is located near 10.1 north and 156.5 west, about 780 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. This system is expected to keep a westward movement, posing no direct threat to the Hawaiian islands. A slow weakening of the storm is expected through early next week.
An area of low pressure located near 9 north and 90 west in association with a strong tropical wave could develop further this weekend. This system will continue to move across very warm waters and atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for development. In fact, this system is expected to become better organized over the next 24 to 48 hours, and may become a tropical system. This storm should track near the Mexican coast this weekend and its development will have to be watched closely.
There are other areas of concern that we are monitoring. A wave along 108 west is moving westward at close to 6 degrees longitude per day. There is a surface low associated with this feature, but deep convection remains disorganized at this time.
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Mike Pigott and Matt Keefe.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Aug 11, 2008 2:11 am  Reply with quote  

No major changes have occurred over the past 24 hours, but "Hernan" is still an active storm so here is the latest report...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Hurricane Hernan Slightly Weakening; Kika Hanging On
Hernan continues to steadily weaken as a Category 1 hurricane as of 2 p.m. PDT, was located near 18.2 north and 127.5 west, or about 1,185 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum-sustained winds had decreased slightly to 85 mph. It is moving northwestward at close to 10 mph, but is expected to slow as it continues on that track over the next few days. The storm poses no threat to land and is expected to gradually weaken within the next 24-48 hours as it moves over cooler waters.
In the central Pacific, Kika remains a tropical storm as of 2 p.m. PDT. It is located near 9.7 north and 162.13 west. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph with higher gusts. This system is expected to keep a westward movement, posing no direct threat to the Hawaiian islands. A slow strengthening of the storm is expected through the rest of the weekend as wind shear relaxes over this storm.
An area of low pressure located near 13 north and 112 west is in association with a tropical wave. This system will continue to move across very warm waters and atmospheric conditions will remain marginally favorable for development. This storm is expected to continue moving west-northwestward, parallel to the Mexican coast over the next few days, and its development will have to be watched closely.
Another low that is being watched is centered at 96.5 west and 14 north, associated with a tropical wave. It continues to move westward at about 10 knots. This wave has shown signs of organization over the last day and is not expected to develop in the next couple of days with no threat to land.
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kate Walters
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Aug 14, 2008 2:07 pm  Reply with quote  

10th tropical depression becomes 9th named Tropical Storm in the East Pacific realm, at number 9 it 's "Iselle" which, at this present time poses no threat to land.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Tropical Storm Iselle Continues
The area of low pressure located off the southern coast of Mexico that organized into the 10th tropical depression of the season became Tropical Storm Iselle Wednesday afternoon. As of 2:00 a.m. PDT Thursday morning, Iselle was located near 17.6 north and 108.6 west, or approximately 300 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The central pressure was 29.59 inches, or 1002 millibars. Iselle was moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph and is expected to continue on that track over the next 24 hours, keeping the storm away from land. Gradual weakening is expected as Iselle moves over cooler waters by early next week.

The remnants of Hernan are centered near 18 north and 138 west. This system will continue to track to the west-southwest over the next few days without any impact on land.

An area of low pressure located near 16 north and 119 west looks poorly organized. However, it is located in favorable lower- and upper-level conditions. Any development of this system will be slow to occur.

A tropical wave along 95 west is moving over Central America and should emerge off the Central American coast in the eastern Pacific within the next day or two. This feature has a history of creating large areas of showers and thunderstorms, so it could help spawn a tropical system in a few days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller and Heather Buchman
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Aug 16, 2008 2:35 pm  Reply with quote  

A new named Tropical Storm is brewing and apparently headed near Cuba, and then potentially maybe east of Florida in the Gulf waters. As experts try to plot her course, meet "Fay".
As this storm develops it may be of particular interest to watch again, the storm patterns that develop over the mid and south continental US, and the direction with which they flow with respect to "Fay's" position and potential track. I have a hunch there will be some extreme weather systems developing in and around the mid-west and tracking south in "Fay's" general direction. I am no expert, but I will venture to make some predictions as well, let’s see what happens next...
Here is a live feed link to a 12 hour satellite loop that can be used to monitor these activities as they transpire.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_hem_loop-12.html
If anyone else finds anything remotely close to what is being described here on these links, or any others you may find, please save them on independent servers and then post them here. (Remember not to post live feed images, with descriptions as they will not reflect what is described at a later date, save them first and embed the linked images please)
At the time of this writing, Texas weather patterns are displaying the exact same phenomena here-in described. I am not going to embed the loop at this point, so it is just my word and I don't expect anyone to accept just that as proof. I am sure there will be more action ahead if this storm continues on its path toward US.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Fay Churns Over Hispaniola
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Fay was located over Hispaniola near 18.8 north, 72.8 west or 170 miles east-southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. Maximum-sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts and are mainly occurring over the water north of Hispaniola and is moving west at about 14 mph.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect along the entire coastline of Haiti. They are also in effect for the Turks and Caicos islands, the southeastern Bahamas and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma.

Tropical storm watches are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas, in addition to the Central Bahamas.

Satellite pictures Saturday morning indicate heavy rain is falling over a large portion of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is likely as Fay continues moving to the west on Saturday, with locally amounts of a foot. The rain could cause life-threatening landslides and flash floods. Heading through Saturday afternoon, the rain will diminish over the Dominican Republic, but increase over eastern Cuba, especially late in the day and night.

Current indications are that Fay will continue on a mainly westerly course through Saturday night and early Sunday. On this track, Fay will once again be over open waters Saturday afternoon and night as well as for much of the day Sunday. If this track does take place, there is ample room for intensification and it is possible that Fay could quickly ramp up into a hurricane. The more of a southern track the storm takes, the better chance for intensification.

Eventually, Fay will start to feel the weakness in the ridge to the north that now exists in the Southeast. This would start to turn Fay more to the northwest and then north. This is most likely to happen on Sunday night and Monday and would take Fay across Cuba and then back over the open waters south or southwest of Florida.

Forecast models have been trending on a farther west track than they were on Thursday and even earlier in the day on Friday. There is still a fairly widespread area of possible tracks, from just east of Florida to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The majority of the computer models, however, take Fay either over the western portion of the Florida Peninsula or in the easternmost Gulf of Mexico. Although interaction with Cuba will have some effect on the strength of Fay, once back over the warm waters of the Florida Straits or Gulf of Mexico, additional organization and strengthening can occur.

All interests from the Hispaniola to Cuba and north to the Bahamas and Florida should closely monitor this storm through the weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a second area of disturbed weather continues to be monitored for possible development. This area is along 49/50 west, south of 23 north and moving west at 15 knots. This is about 600 miles east of the Leeward islands. Showers associated with this system remain disorganized and no development is expected in at least the next 24 hours.

A tropical wave is also noted near 27 west having emerged from the coast of Africa on Thursday. Within this wave is a weak area of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature remain disorganized and development is not anticipated within the next few days. However, computer forecasts continue to suggest this could become better organized early next week.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson







http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Iselle Continuing to Weaken
As of 2 a.m. PDT, tropical depression Iselle was located near 18.7 north and 111.6 west, or approximately 310 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The central pressure was 29.71 inches, or 1006 millibars. Maximum-sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Iselle was moving to the north-northwest near 5 mph. This storm is expected to keep a slow northwest movement through Sunday, where it will encounter progressively cooler water and continue to weaken. Iselle poses no threat to land.
An area of low pressure is located near 14 north and 122 west. Only a few thunderstorms are found near this low and are poorly organized. Development of this low is not anticipated.

Tropical waves are found along 107 west and 97 west. Neither of these two waves are expected to develop in the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Matt Keefe and Carl Erickson

Out in the East Pacific "Iselle" is calming...

quote:
Iselle Continuing to Weaken
As of 2 a.m. PDT, tropical depression Iselle was located near 18.7 north and 111.6 west, or approximately 310 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The central pressure was 29.71 inches, or 1006 millibars. Maximum-sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Iselle was moving to the north-northwest near 5 mph. This storm is expected to keep a slow northwest movement through Sunday, where it will encounter progressively cooler water and continue to weaken. Iselle poses no threat to land.
An area of low pressure is located near 14 north and 122 west. Only a few thunderstorms are found near this low and are poorly organized. Development of this low is not anticipated.

Tropical waves are found along 107 west and 97 west. Neither of these two waves are expected to develop in the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Matt Keefe and Carl Erickson
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Aug 17, 2008 1:58 pm  Reply with quote  

Keeping an eye on "Fay" as it takes "Aim" at Cuba, and Florida "Next"...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Fay Aiming For Cuba; Florida Is Next
After just skimming Cape Cruz, Cuba, early this morning, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 20.0 north, 78.0 west. Maximum-sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Fay is still moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Some strengthening is expected today as Fay turns on a northwest track through Gulf of Guancanayabo. Fay may be a weak Category 1 hurricane before making more direct landfall near Trinidad, Cuba, tonight. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across Cuba, Jamaica, and the northern Cayman islands. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible, which would cause flash flooding and mudslides.

Hurricane watches are in effect for much of Central Cuba, including La Habana, as well as the Florida Keys, as well as much of South Florida. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Cuba from the Province of Sancti Spiritus eastward to Guantanamo and for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.

Fay will weaken as it moves across Cuba, and is forecast to emerge into the Florida Straits as a tropical storm on Monday. Sea surface temperatures in this region are very warm and warm water runs deep in the Florida Straits. This area of deep, warm water will cause Fay to quickly ramp back up to hurricane strength before moving over the Florida Keys, sometime on Monday afternoon or Monday night.

There is still a fairly widespread area of possible tracks according to computer models, from just east of Florida to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The majority of them, however, indicate a path over the western portion of the Florida Peninsula.

All interests from Cuba and Florida should closely monitor this storm through the weekend. Our forecast track indicates the effects of Fay may be felt in Georgia and the Carolinas toward the middle of next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is present along 55 west, south of 25 north as well as 31 west, south of 18 north. Neither waves are showing signs of development within the next few days. However, computer forecasts continue to suggest that the second wave could become a depression or storm early next week. Development of this system will have to be monitored.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Aug 18, 2008 2:51 pm  Reply with quote  

It looks like its time to batten down the hatches if you’re in Florida. Tropical Storm "Fay" has yet to form into a hurricane, but it has already begun to give Florida a washing in the form of tropical rain. News reports are warning residence of the potential dangers and are advising some to evacuate as a precautionary measure. Experts have still not been able to determine "Fay's'" exact course, and say it may stall where it sits before intensifying and moving on over land or not.
Here is a map of the present predicted track of the storm and a visible satellite image showing its progression.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


And here is the report from the experts…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Fay Heading toward the Keys
As of 8 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 23.2 north, 81.2 west, or about 100 miles south-southeast of Key West, Fla. Maximum-sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Fay is moving northwest at 12 mph. Fay is moving off the northern coast of Cuba now.

Hurricane watches are in effect for much of central Cuba, including La Habana. Additional hurricane watches are in effect for the Florida Keys as well as along the Florida mainland from Card Sound Bridge to Tarpon Springs. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for most of Cuba as well as the Florida Keys and for southeastern Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter Inlet. Tropical storm watches have been implemented north of Jupiter Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

Fay is emerging into the Florida Straits this morning as a tropical storm. Sea surface temperatures in this region are very warm and warm water runs deep in the Florida Straits. This area of deep, warm water will cause Fay to ramp up to near hurricane strength before moving closer to southwestern Florida on Monday night into Tuesday. The storm will bring heavy rain today through Tuesday across the Keys and all of southern Florida. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, causing flash flooding.

There is still a fairly widespread area of possible tracks according to computer models, from the southwest coast of Florida all the way to the western Panhandle of Florida. A more westward track would allow Fay to have more time in open waters, resulting in a potentially stronger storm. The farther east the storm goes, the less time it will have to strengthen. It also seems more certain now that Fay will head into no-man's-land with relatively weak steering flow midweek. This could mean a slow, erratic storm movement. Some ideas suggest that Fay could even stall for a day or two.

All interests in Florida should closely monitor this storm. Our forecast track indicates the effects of Fay may be felt in Georgia and the Carolinas toward the middle of the week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is present along 59 west, south of 25 north as well as 33 west, south of 18 north. Neither wave is showing signs of development within the next few days. However, computer forecasts continue to suggest that the second wave could become a depression or storm in the next couple of days. Development of this system will have to be monitored.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Aug 19, 2008 2:31 pm  Reply with quote  

"Fay" fails to reach hurricane strength as it arrives in Florida, however, there is still allot of potential danger associated with this storm. Rain totals upwards of 12 inches are forecast for some areas which may present flash flooding, combined with gusty winds still pose a danger and a potential threat to life. Although it remains less than a hurricane now, this storm still bares watching as it continues its course...
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Fay Brings Gusty Winds and Heavy Rain to the Southern Half of Florida
As of 8 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 26.5 north, 81.4 west, or about 50 miles east-southeast of Fort Myers, Fla. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Fay is moving north-northeast at 9 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center of Fay up to 100 miles mostly to the northeast. The minimum central pressure of Fay is 988 millibars or 29.18 inches.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from the middle of Longboat Key southward and along the East Coast from Flagler Beach southward, including Lake Okeechobee, along with the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge and Florida Bay. All other tropical storm warnings are discontinued.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Florida's east coast north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.

The storm will bring heavy rain through the day into tonight spreading from South Florida into the central portion of the state. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, causing flash flooding.

Fay will begin to weaken as it moves into central Florida. We expect Fay to move northward, then northeastward over the Florida Peninsula today into Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds, mostly in gusts. The strongest winds gusting to over 60 mph will be felt along the east coast of Florida. Areas well inland from the coast might experience wind gusts to 40 or 50 mph, mostly in the rain bands close to the storm's center. Rainfall along and to the east of Fay's path will continue to average 4-8 inches with some isolated spots up to 12 inches, mostly near the east coast of Florida. There is also the potential for isolated tornadoes, mostly over eastern Florida during the daylight hours today and Wednesday. There is a good chance that Fay will move back over water in the Atlantic on Wednesday before turning back north or perhaps even west again. It does seem more certain now that Fay will encounter relatively weak steering flow during midweek. This will mean a slow, erratic storm movement Wednesday and beyond. Some computer forecasts suggest that Fay could stall for a day or two near the coast of the southeastern United States.

All interests in Florida should closely monitor this storm. Our forecast track indicates that the effects of Fay may be felt in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas toward the latter part of this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave is present along 65 west, south of 25 north as well as along 37 west, south of 18 north. Neither wave is showing signs of development within the next few days. However, computer forecasts continue to suggest that the tropical wave along 35 west could become an organized tropical system in a few days. Development of this system will have to be monitored.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kevin Witt
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Aug 20, 2008 2:38 pm  Reply with quote  

"Fay" the storm that wouldn't go away, is now threatening to regain strength and may still become a storm of hurricane force. After spawning tornados and giving Floridian's a washing with torrential rains though the night, this piece of work may work its way back through the state from the Atlantic waters as a hurricane. Keeping an eye on her progress, here's the report...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Fay To Restrengthen
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 28.2 north, 80.6 west, or 15 miles south of Cape Canaveral, Fla. Maximum-sustained winds are 50 mph with higher gusts. Fay is moving north-northeast at 7 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center of Fay up to 110 miles mostly to the northeast. The minimum central pressure of Fay is 993 millibars or 29.32 inches.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect along the east coast of Florida from north of Jupiter to Flagler Beach. Meanwhile, a hurricane watch is in effect from Flagler Beach northward to Altamaha Sound, Ga. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Altamaha Sound, Ga., northward to the Savannah River.

Fay has weakened a little with winds easing a bit to 50 mph. Fay will bring heavy rain early this morning across the east-central portion of Florida, then into the northeastern part of the state on Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, causing flash flooding. There is the potential for isolated tornadoes over eastern Florida into early Wednesday. Tropical storm-force winds will continue to affect east-central and northeastern Florida on Wednesday.

Fay will move along the east coast of Florida and re-emerge over the Atlantic Ocean later today north of Cape Canaveral. There is a good chance that Fay will intensify further over the warm waters off the northeast coast of Florida during the day on Wednesday. Given little or no upper-level shear and warm water, Fay is forecast to be near hurricane strength. An upper-level system passing over the eastern United States is drawing Fay northward. That upper-level system will move east and a very large high pressure area north of Fay will intensify, blocking the storm. This will create weak or almost no steering flow over the storm during Wednesday night through Thursday night. As a result, Fay will have a slow, erratic storm movement during this time.

All interests in Florida should closely monitor this storm. Our forecast track indicates that the effects of Fay may be felt in parts of Georgia toward the latter part of this week and into the weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics, tropical waves are along 65 west, south of 20 north and along 39 west, south of 17 north. The tropical wave along 65 west remains weak and disorganized and is expected to remain disorganized for the next few days. The tropical wave along 38 west does have a 1010 millibar surface low near 13 north. Thunderstorms have been attempting to wrap around this system and some computer information suggests this feature could evolve into an organized tropical system within the next few days. So we will monitor the movement of this tropical wave very closely.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Matthew Rinde and Randy Adkins

And for the record here is a picture...
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Aug 21, 2008 4:55 am  Reply with quote  

Florida is taking a beating from “Fay”, with some areas reporting near 2 ft of rain from this storm already, breaking records from some fifty years back. Some residence have been warned of “SWIMMING ALLIGATORS” in the streets, as well as snakes and other displaced wild life. It is going to be a ruff night and a wild ride, literally, for some time yet for the folks down in the south and especially Floridians.
Here are some local reports from Florida’ and some from CNN…


quote:
http://www.local6.com/weather/17244086/detail.html
"We are watching it hug the coast," Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells said. "If it doesn't come out to the open water, that is actually better for everyone as long as we can shut the rain off in southern Brevard County."

Fay Dumps Record-Breaking Rain; Flood Victims Warned Of Alligator Swimming In Streets MELBOURNE, Fla. -- Homeowners in a Tropical Storm Fay-flooded community were being warned of an alligator swimming in their streets and near homes as record-breaking rain continued to fall Wednesday.
Residents on Wickham Road in Melbourne were forced to use canoes to maneuver around their flooded streets.
Several homes were reported to have flooded and some streets near the Kings Hills subdivision had waist-deep water.
There are also reports of an alligator in the flooded neighborhood streets, which is another thing residents have to worry about, Local 6's Jessica Sanchez reported.
"We have removed alligators, we have removed snakes and we've removed all kinds of wildlife," Brevard EOC Director Bob Lay said. "Our animal services and enforcement officers have been doing this all over the county for the last three days."
The National Guard has been called to Melbourne to help with voluntary evacuations.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/20/tropical.storm.fay/index.html#cnnSTCText
As of 11 p.m. ET, the storm was just off the coast of central Florida about 35 miles southeast of Daytona Beach, the National Hurricane Center said.
The storm was moving slowly but could make landfall again in northern Florida Thursday, the hurricane center said.
It would be the fourth time the storm makes landfall. Fay has come ashore in Florida twice after making landfall in Cuba.
NASA reported receiving 21 inches of rain from the storm Wednesday, said Craig Fugate, Florida's emergency management director. Forecasters said they received an unofficial report of 22 inches northwest of Melbourne, Florida.
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has asked President Bush to declare an emergency in the state to free up federal funding.
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visual ray wizard





Joined: 09 Jul 2005
Posts: 461
Location: United States
Fay is going to track right up the Mississippi river and PostFri Aug 22, 2008 4:25 am  Reply with quote  

bring much needed drought relief to the entire south east. That will be a prayer answered since we are practically rain free for the month of August.

This might sound ironic but if Fay had turned out to sea as originally forecated, the economic damage in dollars due to crop losses would have been much higher than the damage this tropical storm is currently producing in Florida as a whole.



GO FAY GO!!!
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Aug 22, 2008 1:38 pm  Reply with quote  

Visual ray wizard,
I appreciate the satellite loop of Fay that you have posted, but if it is a live feed link, tomorrow or the next day when the storm has passed the image will not reflect anything related to the post. Please be sure to capture the loops and save them to a personal account on an independent server and then embed the link to the loop in your post. If this link is live I will have to remove it when it is no longer relevant. I am not trying to discourage you from posting here, but I am encouraging you to follow a protocol when you do. Thank you for your understanding and co-operation.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Aug 22, 2008 1:58 pm  Reply with quote  

For a storm that hasn’t officially materialized as a classified hurricane, Tropical Storm “Fay” continues off the scale to reek havoc on the state of Florida, as it once again traverses west across the state, leaving record amounts of rainfall over the last four days. And it ain’t over yet, experts warn this storm may still be able to pull energy from the warm Gulf waters as it reaches the west coast of Florida AGAIN!, only now traveling along the pan handle of the state. Although the rain may be a relief to the areas drought concerns, so much water descending on an area in such a short time span is a very dangerous thing for both humans and wildlife and infrastructure, all eyes stay wide open as this thing makes it way out…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Tropical Storm Fay Continues Across Florida
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 29.6 north, 82.2 west, or just a few miles to the southeast of Gainesville, Florida. Maximum-sustained winds are at 50 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center of Fay up to 100 miles, mostly to the east. The minimum central pressure of Fay is 995 millibars or 29.38 inches. Fay was drifting slowly to the west at 2 mph over the last several hours, but has picked up speed to around 5 mph. We expect Fay to move slowly west through Friday.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Sebastian Inlet to the Savannah River at the border between Georgia and South Carolina. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast of Florida from the Aripeka to Indian Pass. This is roughly from just north of Cedar Key to the coast near Apalachicola. There is also a tropical storm watch from Indian Pass westward to Destin.
Fay has remained a tropical storm as it crosses northern Florida. Fay will move into Apalachee Bay later this morning and if it stays over the Bay for an extended period of time there is a good chance it could strengthen some once more. Fay will move back over land and into the Florida Panhandle later on Friday night or Saturday morning. Fay will then interact with the Panhandle of Florida, but also have close access to the warm Gulf waters. While Fay could weaken because it is near land it could also maintain its strength through the Gulf if it remains far enough offshore.
Rainfall from Fay continues to be the biggest impact. Rainfall totals of over 2 feet have occurred in the Coco Beach Melbourne area along the Space Coast of Florida. Rainfall further inland has been averaging 4-8 inches. Another 4-8 inches of rain can be expected from Fay over parts of central and northern Florida on Thursday night through Friday. Rainfall totals in this area will be near or over a foot by the time rain associated with the storm moves away by Saturday. Heavy rainfall will extend into southeastern Georgia. However, since Fay is moving on a more westerly course, amounts over southeastern Georgia will average 2-4 inches tonight through Friday. As Fay moves into the panhandle region of Florida later on Friday and Saturday, rainfall totals will still average 2-8 inches over southernmost Georgia and across the Florida Panhandle.
Fay will bring sustained winds of 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph along the northeastern Florida coast. The strongest winds will occur from Daytona Beach on north to the Georgia coast. Farther inland, winds will average 15-30 mph with gusts to over 40 mph at times over north-central and northeastern Florida.
All interests in Florida and along the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast should closely monitor this storm. Our forecast track indicates that the effects of Fay will be felt across northern Florida into the Florida Panhandle and over southernmost Georgia on Thursday night and Friday.
Elsewhere in the tropics, tropical waves are along 80 west, south of 20 north, along 59 west, south of 16 north and along 51 west, south of 13 north and along 38 west, south of 19 north. The tropical wave along 70 west remains weak and disorganized and is expected to remain disorganized for the next few days. The tropical wave along 55 west looks less organized as of late on Thursday afternoon. The tropical wave along 51 west has a surface low that has shown some signs of organization and the tropical wave along 34 west has a surface low also with some signs of organization. All three tropical waves east of 60 west or east of the Lesser Antilles will be watched for possible development during the next few days.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

Picture this DAY FOUR!!!
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starman1





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PostSat Aug 23, 2008 2:29 pm  Reply with quote  

Day FIVE over Florida and "Fay" continues to pelt the state with rain, wind, and the threat of emerging tornados. Although this storm has never crossed the line to hurricane Dom, it is still packing a punch with its delivery systems. Experts are now warning of life threatening flooding in parts of the state, so residence beware and take care. It looks to be near history soon. More picture’s of the monster Tropical Storm that is still “Fay”, with an interesting anomaly to the east of Florida, check out the diagonal straight line protruding southeast of the storm ??????



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Tropical Storm Fay Near Panama City, Florida
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 29.9 north, 85.3 west, or 20 miles to the southeast of Panama City, Fla. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center of Fay up to 90 miles. The minimum central pressure of Fay is 998 millibars or 29.47 inches. Fay is moving in a general west direction at 7 mph.
A tropical storm warning is now in effect for the northeastern Gulf coast from Suwanee River, Fla., westward to the mouth of the Pearl River at the Louisiana/ Mississippi border. A tropical storm watch is in effect west to Grand Isle Louisiana, including New Orleans and Lake Ponontchartrain.
Fay continues to move slowly to the west as a tropical storm, and as it draws warm tropical air into its circulation today and tonight, the storm should maintain its current strength. Fay has moved back overland and will track across the central and western Florida Panhandle today through tonight.
Rainfall and isolated tornadoes caused by Fay will be the biggest impacts from this storm. Rainfall totals of over 8 inches have occurred over the Jacksonville, Fla., area thus far. Another 2-8 inches of rain can be expected from Fay over parts of central and northern Florida, southern most Georgia and into southern Alabama. This will lead to serious and perhaps deadly flooding problems over these areas.
Fay will bring winds averaging 20 to 40 mph with locally higher gusts over much of northern and central Florida outside of the center today. The highest winds and gusts will probably be felt over coastal sections and coastal waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico mainly from Cedar Key on north and west to Apalachicola, Fla. Coastal flooding and very rough surf and riptides can occur anywhere along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula with tides running 1 to 3 feet above normal and close to 4 feet about normal in Levy and Citrus counties.
People living along the northeast Gulf of Mexico from Cedar Key to Mobile Bay and over the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of Fay.
Elsewhere in the tropics, tropical waves are along 84 west, south of 15 north, along 61 west, south of 16 north and along 41 west, south of 20 north. The tropical wave along 84 west remains weak and disorganized and is expected to remain disorganized for the next few days, producing some showers and thunderstorms over Central America. The tropical wave along 60 west remain disorganized. Surface data from buoy reports indicate no low level wind structure under any of these waves at this time. The tropical wave along 40 west did show some signs of organization during Friday morning. But thunderstorms were dying out over this small area of clouds during Friday afternoon. All three systems have some potential for organization by the end of the weekend or early next week. Another tropical disturbance is has moved off the African coast and is along 20 west south of 19 north. There are a few showers with this wave.
The last tropical system is a small 1009 mb low near 56 west and 11 north. This is moving west with scattered showers.
By AccuWeather Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Carrie McCabe

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starman1





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Posts: 1583
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PostSun Aug 24, 2008 2:27 pm  Reply with quote  

“Fay” has finally moved away from Florida, tracking to the west. Currently it looks like it has moved inland over the southern states all the way to Louisiana. The storms rain bans appearing presently on satellite imagery are nearly all over land??? Experts are warning of “torrential rains” from Florida to Louisiana. Send some of that rain up here to Northern California, will yah???

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Fay a Tropical Rainstorm and Still Dangerous
As of 4 a.m. CDT, Tropical Rainstorm Fay was located near 31.6 north, 88.2 west, or 55 miles north of Mobile, Ala. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure of Fay is 999 millibars or 29.50 inches, and the storm is moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph.
Extremely heavy rainfall is the main threat from Fay as she tracks generally westward near the central Gulf Coast Saturday night and Sunday. Nearly 6 inches of rain has fallen in Tallahassee, Fla., Saturday alone, bringing their storm total to almost 10 inches during the past two days. Radar-estimated rainfall has ranged between 10 to 20 inches for parts of the Florida Panhandle since Friday evening. Fay will also continue to produce isolated tornadoes to the north and especially east of the track of the storm.
Fay will cause torrential rains from the Florida Panhandle across Alabama and Mississippi into eastern Louisiana through the end of the weekend and even into early next week. Additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with localized amounts of 20 inches still remain possible across the Gulf Coast states through early next week.
As mentioned earlier, Fay will continue on a general westward track through the end of the weekend, before becoming nearly stalled across the lower Mississippi Valley early next week. From there, it could begin a slow trek to the northeast and spread the chance of soaking rain to east and northeast across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley.
Elsewhere in the tropics, a broad area of low pressure is moving into the Windward Islands, and it is causing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern Caribbean. Slow development is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward across the Caribbean. Another broad area of low pressure near 51 west and 22 north is causing showers and thunderstorms across the central Atlantic. Slow development is possible over the next couple of days as it tracks westward.
By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck and Meteorologist Matt Keefe


Meanwhile, in the East Pacific its starting up again, at number 10 its Tropical Storm “Julio”, heading near Baja, maybe some of that rain I was asking for is on its way, I doubt it…Anyway, here is the report…


quote:

Tropical Storm Julio Approaches Baja California
As of 5 a.m. PDT Sunday, the center was located near latitude 21.9 north and longitude 109.8 west, or 85 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Julio is moving north-northwestward at 14 mph with an estimated central pressure of 1005 mb or 29.68 inches of mercury.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Baja Peninsula from Bahia Magdalena around the peninsula to Loreto. A tropical storm watch is in effect along the west coast of Baja California from Bahia Magdalena to Punta Abreojos and along the east coast from Loreto to Mulege.

Strong thunderstorms are being observed on satellite imagery to the west of the center of the storm. The storm is under moderate to strong easterly wind shear, but the wind shear is expected to decrease as Julio moves northward. Julio looks to hug the western Baja Peninsula this afternoon and eventually make landfall just before midnight tonight. Monday evening or Tuesday as it continues on its north-northwest path up the Baja.

Another tropical wave was found at 90W and 6N is moving westward at about 10-15 mph. This wave does show some thunderstorm activity and may be forming a center of low pressure. We will continue to monitor this area of thunderstorms over the next few days for possible development.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott

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