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2008 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Aug 25, 2008 2:43 pm  Reply with quote  

“Fay” and “Julio” are still both delivering lots of rain in their respective locations. “Julio” residing over Baja for now, as “Fay” continues to rotate around the south between East Texas and the Deep South, which the experts are now saying will bring some much needed relief to drought stricken areas in Georgia and other parts round there, pardon the slang. Next up, looks like there is new action down in the Caribbean, hope its not a repeat…
After seven days over land, “Fay” is still throwing off some impressive imagery, this storm is like that energizer bunny… STILL GOING!!!


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Tropical Rainstorm Fay Weakening, Caribbean Development Possible
As of 6 a.m. CDT, Tropical Rainstorm Fay was located over southwestern Mississippi. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph with higher gusts. Fay is nearly stationary and will remain so today into tonight.

Fay continues to weaken and open up, and it has a large circulation that stretches from eastern Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Deep South. Heavy rain has spread out into widely separated bands that will continue to rotate around the center of circulation over the next 12-24 hours, and this will reduce the threat of large-scale flooding, but there can still be smaller pockets of heavy rain that can cause localized flooding. The positive aspect will be the rainfall near Atlanta and other areas that are in a drought.

Fay will begin to move to the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest moves eastward across the northern and central Plains. Fay will be steered northeast by this trough, and areas of moderate to heavy rain will spread to the north and east across the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians Tuesday and Wednesday. In drought-stricken areas across eastern areas of Tennessee and Kentucky, this will be welcome.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a strong tropical wave near 70 west and 15 north is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean. Low pressure along the wave continues to become better organized. An upper-level trough north of Hispaniola is shearing the northern portion of the wave, but it still has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Plane is scheduled to investigate this system today, so we will have more information on this system. Another tropical wave along 57 west and south of 27 north is being directly sheared by the upper trough north of Hispaniola and this wave will have a hard time developing over the next day or two. A third tropical along 32 west and south of 17 north is being sheared by a separate upper trough over the eastern Atlantic and any development will be slow.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Paquette





http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Julio Bringing Heavy Rain to Baja
As of 2 a.m. PDT Monday, the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located near latitude 25.8 north and longitude 111.8 west, or 30 miles west-southwest of Loreto, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend 70 miles from the center. Julio is moving north-northwestward at 15 mph with an estimated central pressure of 1002 mb or 29.59 inches of mercury.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Baja Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to El Pocito on the west coast and between La Paz and Mulege on the east coast. A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the west coast of Baja California from Punta Abreojos north to El Pocito and along the east coast from Mulege north to Bahia San Juan Bautista.

Strong thunderstorms are still being observed on satellite imagery to the west of the center of the storm. Julio is expected to begin weaken as it interacts with land and even more so some on Tuesday as it continues on its north-northwest path over the mountainous terrain of the Baja. Julio could produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across the southern Baja with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible. The central peninsula can expect 2-4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches.

Besides Julio, two tropical lows are being watched in the East Pacific. One (1010 mb) at 8N and 91W is moving westward at about 10-15 mph. Another low at 14N and 113W is moving slowly north. We will continue to monitor these areas over the next few days for possible development.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Paquette

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Aug 26, 2008 2:27 pm  Reply with quote  

This thing wasted no time getting up to speed in a hurry as the 7th named storm of the 2008 Atlantic side season, “Gustav” has already attained hurricane status cruising @ CAT 1, presently. But the experts are saying this storm “will strengthen” as it progresses through the Caribbean. Keeping a watchful eye out to sea, our thoughts and prayers go out to those residing in this storms path…




“Fay” continues on, now classified as a Tropical Rainstorm residing over northern Alabama, headed toward Tennessee and Kentucky, currently…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hurricane Gustav Strengthening
A hurricane warning for Hurricane Gustav is in effect in the Dominican Republic for the south coast from Barahona westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti. A hurricane watch is in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago De Cuba and Guantanamo, and also for Jamaica.


Hurricane Gustav was located over the Caribbean as of 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday. The center of the storm was near 17.5 north and 72.0 west, or about 75 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti, moving to the northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. This system will continue to strengthen and decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Estimated central pressure is 981 mb, or 28.97 inches.


The storm will bring heavy rain to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days as it moves north, then more westerly. Rainfall totals are expected to average 5 to 7 inches, and local amounts up to 24 inches are possible over the higher terrain. Life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides will be a big concern.


After affecting Hispaniola and then southeastern Cuba today into Wednesday, the future track of Gustav may take on a more westerly course. This could take Gustav south of the southern coast of Cuba Thursday through at least Saturday. The future strength of Gustav will be directly related to whether it is over land or over water. Increasingly, model guidance has been trending more south over the last 12 to 18 hours and intensifies Gustav south of Cuba and then moves it toward the Gulf of Mexico. This will have to be watched closely, but more heavy rains are likely no matter what the path, and could produce additional flooding problems from east to west across Cuba.


As of 8 a.m. CDT, Tropical Rainstorm Fay was located over northern Alabama. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph with higher gusts. Fay is moving slowly north-northeastward and will continue moving slowly today and bring heavy rain across the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians as well as parts of the Southeast. While much of this region has been very dry in recent months, the rain will be heavy enough to cause localized flooding.


Fay will begin to move to the northeast today into Wednesday as an upper-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest moves eastward across the northern and central Plains. Fay will be steered northeast by this trough, and areas of moderate to heavy rain will spread to the north and east across eastern Kentucky and the central Appalachians tonight and Wednesday. In drought-stricken areas across eastern areas of Tennessee and Kentucky, this rain will be welcome.


Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave along 86 west and south of 20 north has no organized deep convection with it. A wave along 71 west south of 14 north is close to Gustav with no significant showers. A tropical wave along 38 west south of 16 north is moving west at 10-15 knots. The last area of disturbed weather has some strong showers and thunderstorms with a broad low pressure area along 24 west south of 20 north with a 1008 mb low.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer



On the Pacific side, “Julio” remains a Tropical Depression bringing lots of rain to Baja, and maybe then to the north in the southwestern US.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Julio Bringing Heavy Rain over Central Baja
As of 2 a.m. PDT Tuesday, the center of Tropical Depression Julio was located near latitude 28.8 north and longitude 113.0 west, or 110 miles north-northwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are at 35 mph with higher gusts. Julio is moving north near 6 mph with an estimated central pressure of 1004 mb or 29.65 inches of mercury.

Convection has been gradually diminishing around the center of Julio early Tuesday morning as it interacts with land. A general weakening trend will continue today as it continues on its north path along the coast of the Baja. Julio could produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across the central Baja with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible. Moisture associated with Julio is expected to enhance rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the southwestern United States over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Basin, a tropical wave over Panama is being monitored for development. The wave is located along 79.5 west and north of 8 north and is moving westward at about 17 to 23 mph.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Aug 27, 2008 2:17 pm  Reply with quote  

“Killer Hurricane”, “Gustav” is on the loose after killing a man (edit: now 3 people) in Haiti, and now at least 8 people are reported dead in the Dominican Republic as a result of landslides caused by the storms rains, which have also threatened to flood the food crops of the Haitian’s already struggling with the current cost of food.
The storm is currently disguised as a Tropical Storm and it is believed that it is headed toward Cuba. Experts warn that it could reach a CAT 2 (edit: now CAT 3) classification before entering the Gulf of Mexico… This storm is has already taken life, and caused further damage that may result in the loss of even more life. All eyes on “GUSTAV”…


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26367291

quote:

MSNBC and NBC News
updated 15 minutes ago
SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic - Eight people died in a landslide in the Dominican Republic, authorities in that country said Wednesday, raising Tropical Storm Gustav's death toll to 11.
The victims, all members of one family, were killed overnight in the capital of Santo Domingo, according to civil defense agency director Luis Luna Paulino, who said more than 5,000 people across the country had been evacuated as a result of the storm.
Gustav also killed three people in neighboring Haiti. It was creeping toward Cuba Wednesday as a tropical storm but is expected to turn into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane in the coming days as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.




quote:
Deadly Gustav loses steam after walloping Haiti
Tropical storm may regain hurricane strength, churns through Caribbean
MSNBC and NBC News
updated 1:34 a.m. PT, Wed., Aug. 27, 2008
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti - Tropical Storm Gustav was losing steam early Wednesday as it moved through the Caribbean a day after hitting Haiti as a hurricane.
But the storm could regain hurricane strength later in the day or on Thursday once it clears Haiti, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
As of 2 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Gustav's maximum sustained winds had decreased to 60 mph with higher gusts. The storm was centered about 80 miles west of Port-au-Prince and moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph.
As a hurricane, Gustav caused a killer landslide and dumped torrential rains on southern Haiti on Tuesday before weakening to a tropical storm.
Crops threatened
Rising water threatened Haiti's crops amid protests over high food prices, and oil prices rose on fears the storm could batter oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm lingered into the night over Haiti's poor, deforested southern peninsula, and water levels were rising in banana, bean and vegetable fields. One man was killed in a landslide in the mountain town of Benet, civil protection director Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste told Radio Metropole.
Cars pushed through standing water in the streets of Port-au-Prince, as fallen trees and landslides blocked a major road out of the capital.
Hundreds of people in coastal Les Cayes ignored government warnings to seek shelter, instead throwing rocks to protest the high cost of living in the Western Hemisphere's poorest country. Witnesses said U.N. peacekeepers used tear gas to disperse the crowd.
Haiti is a tinderbox because of soaring food prices, which in April led to deadly protests and the ouster of the nation's prime minister. It was difficult to ascertain the extent of the damage from the hurricane to the nation's crops on Tuesday because of Haiti's poor infrastructure and faulty communications.
"If the rain continues, we'll be flooded," U.N. food consultant Jean Gardy said Tuesday from the southeastern town of Marigot.
Forecasters said Gustav could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds topping 96 mph Thursday as it moves between Cuba and Jamaica.



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Weakened Gustav to Turn Stronger Today
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border westward to Le Mole St. Nicholas. There is a hurricane warning for Cuba in the provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago De Cuba and Granma. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern Haiti/Dominican Republic border. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Caymans, Jamaica and the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas and Holguin.

At 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Gustav remained a tropical storm. The center was located near the northern coast of the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, about 90 miles west of Port Au Prince. The center of the storm was near 18.8 north and 73.7 west, moving to the northwest at 5 mph. Maximum-sustained winds have held at 60 mph, with some higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 997 mb, or 29.44 inches. Gustav has remained nearly stationary over the last 6-8 hours and brought significant rainfall to the area. The storm will continue to bring heavy rain to much of Haiti through the morning hours today, with rain spreading into eastern Cuba during the day and eventually to Jamaica late today and tonight. Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches more is likely with local amounts of 20 plus inches, especially at the higher terrain. This will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Although Gustav has weakened, the storm will move over water again. Therefore, strengthening is likely to occur during the day into tonight. Once emerging into the Windward Passage today, it will be back over the very warm waters of the northern Caribbean. Atmospheric conditions will also be very favorable for intensification during this time as it passes north of Jamaica late tonight and Thursday, probably becoming a Category 2 midday on Thursday. Similar rainfall to that which will douse Haiti and easternmost Cuba today will spread across Jamaica and central Cuba tonight and Thursday. In addition, a storm surge of 3 to 6 feet above normal is possible. Gustav will then continue on a mostly westerly course south of Cuba and very near the Cayman Islands on Friday then toward the Yucatan Channel on Saturday. There is a possibility that Gustav could become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane sometime on Friday or Saturday as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. All interests along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico need to watch the progress of this storm for early next week, especially the central and western Gulf Coast areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave along 77 west, south of 14 north, is close to Gustav with no significant showers. A tropical wave along 44 west, south of 16 north, is moving west at 15-20 knots. The last area of disturbed weather has some strong showers and thunderstorms with a broad low pressure area along 30 west, south of 20 north. Both the system east of the Leeward Islands and the one near the Cape Verde Islands have the potential to get better organized over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Aug 28, 2008 2:17 pm  Reply with quote  

It now appears that “Gustav” is taking dead aim at Jamaica, and moving away from Cuba, and potentially gearing up to a hurricane force storm once again. The current predicted track has this storm headed near the Yucatan Peninsula after what looks like from satellite imagery, a thrashing for the Jamaicans , and then into the Gulf waters. This storm is already responsible for many deaths, and should not be ignored by any of those in harms way, it is more than just a potential “killer”… And it now appears to have company. Moving along behind it out in the open Atlantic waters is this season’s number eight, Tropical Storm “Hanna”, who has officially now been given her name.


“Hanna”…

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Gustav Strengthens to the Southeast of Jamaica/Tropical Depression 8
A tropical storm warning remains out for the province of Granma, Cuba, while all other watches and warnings have been discontinued for Cuba. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Caymans and Jamaica; a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica as well.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Gustav was located about 80 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica, near 17.8 north, 75.6 west. Gustav is moving slowly to the west-southwest at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph with gusts up to 85 mph. The estimated central pressure is 988 mb, or 29.18 inches. Gustav is bringing significant rainfall to eastern Jamaica this morning then spreading westward during the day on Thursday. Heavy rain could also affect parts of southeastern Cuba during the day on Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are likely with local amounts of 20-plus inches, especially at the higher terrain. This will create life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Strong and relatively dry northeast winds in the midlevels of the atmosphere in the path of Gustav have taken their toll on the tropical storm causing convection to shift to the south and southwest and keep the system unbalanced. During the past couple of hours, convection has become more centered near the center of Gustav. Also, the wind shear has begun to lessen somewhat. Both factors have allowed for Gustav to strengthen during the last couple of hours. Gustav could become a hurricane late this morning or this afternoon. A mid- to upper-level ridge of high pressure north of Gustav extending over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico will guide the storm westward later today and then to the northwest tomorrow and into Labor Day weekend. Gustav should ride westward along the southern coast of Jamaica and then make a direct hit onto Grand Cayman Island as a Category 1, or possibly a Category 2, hurricane Friday morning. Further strengthening of Gustav is anticipated as it moves either across western Cuba or through the Yucatan Channel and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Due to this uncertainty, all interests along the Gulf of Mexico from Brownsville to the Florida Keys should monitor the progress.

Tropical Depression 8 is showing some signs of better organization with a ball of thunderstorms recently developing around the center. Tropical Depression 8 could become Tropical Storm Hanna later Thursday morning or early afternoon. This system is in a favorable position for further intensification with warm waters and a low-shear environment. TD 8 should move in a westward manner during the next few days with gradual intensification. The storm is currently at 19.8 north and 57.9 west or about 355 miles east to northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving to the west-northwest at 5 mph with a pressure reading about 29.65 inches.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, we are watching another feature along 39 west. The wave along 39 west has some organization aloft, but no significant surface development. If surface activity can consolidate underneath this large, upper-level feature, we could see a well-developed system by early next week.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Kevin Witt

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Aug 29, 2008 2:07 pm  Reply with quote  

Experts are certainly going out on a limb with their predictions for this “Gustav”…
In the following report they have gone so far as to say this storm “WILL” become a hurricane again today, and “WILL” achieve CAT 3 as it passes over into the warmer waters, entering the “Gulf of Mexico” as a CAT 3 by Sunday, possibly a CAT 4 hurricane by Sunday night... How brave is that, when they couldn’t predict the change in direction this storm made night before last. I guess we will have to give them the benefit of doubt as this thing progresses. Heads up down south, it appears we “may” have an incoming big one again…..
“Hanna” is still hanging around as well and has gained some strength, but as yet experts claim poses no immediate threat to land.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Gustav Inching Away From Jamaica, Hanna No Threat Yet
The center of Gustav will move away from Jamaica early this morning, intensify into a hurricane during the day, then buffet the Cayman Islands tonight. Gustav is then expected to move near western portions of Cuba Saturday or Saturday night. As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, a hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm warning remains out for the province of Granma, Cuba. A hurricane watch is in effect for western Cuba, for the provinces of Isla De Uventud, Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, and Ciudad De La Habana. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for the province of Matanzas.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT today, Tropical Storm Gustav was located about 100 miles west-northwest of Kingston, Jamaica, or near 18.3 north, 78.3 west. Gustav is moving to the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph. The estimated central pressure is 988 mb, or 29.18 inches. Gustav brought excessive rainfall to much of Jamaica with the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches fell, with local amounts of 20-plus inches, especially on the higher terrain.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT today, Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 21.7 north and 62.3 west, or 245 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Hanna is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds estimated at near 50 mph. The estimated pressure in Hanna is 1000 millibars, or 29.53 inches. Hanna is experiencing strong westerly shear and will probably not intensify much during the next 24 hours.

Gustav had been interacting with the island of Jamaica since midday Thursday. The storm has failed to become a hurricane due to the 7,000-foot mountains of eastern Jamaica. However, Gustav will emerge over water in the next few hours and should ramp up to hurricane strength mid- to late morning. conditions over Jamaica will slowly improve as Gustav slides to the west-northwest. As Gustav passes over warmer water, it could intensify rapidly to a Category 2 and perhaps 3 hurricane tonight and Saturday. Gustav will pass near the Cayman Islands tonight, then over or just west of far western Cuba, causing windswept, flooding rain over those two relatively flat land masses. Gustav will move into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday as a Category 3 hurricane and could become a Category 4 hurricane later Sunday and Sunday night. Where Gustav moves beyond Sunday is still uncertain. A large high pressure area to the north guiding Gustav over the next few days will change shape and weaken on its western side, allowing Gustav to track more northwestward Sunday night and Monday. However, another very strong high pressure area building into the eastern United States will expand southward, and this could slow or even block the northward motion of Gustav later Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. All interests along the Gulf Coast, especially from the upper coast of Texas to the western Florida Panhandle, should continue to closely monitor the progress of Gustav.

Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened recently with strong thunderstorms again erupting near its center. Shear has also relaxed as the upper-level low to the west of Hanna moves west-southwestward and weakens within the next 24 hours. Hanna will not be a direct threat to land in the near future. However, moisture flowing into the storm will pass over the Leeward Islands tonight and Saturday, and this could bring parts of those islands gusty winds and 1-3 inches of rain. Hanna will move west-northwest to northwestward and stay east of the Bahamas this weekend.

An impressive area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche Thursday has all but fallen apart this morning. The moisture from this area of convection will enhance rain and thunderstorm development over northeastern Mexico and South Texas today. Tropical waves along 40 west and near the African coast are being monitored for possible development within the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Matthew Rinde and Carrie McCabe


Here is a look at the current development, it does look like it is getting better organized...
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Aug 30, 2008 2:41 pm  Reply with quote  

It is only Saturday morning here on the west coast, and the reports on “Gustav” are staggering. The experts predicted by Sunday it might reach CAT 3 and possibly CAT 4 by Sunday night, (see last report) well this thing is already spinning over 120 mph, qualifying it as a “major Category 3 hurricane”, and now experts are warning it my intensify upwards of CAT 5, in the very near future. The exact track it takes, they say will depend on a system descending from Ohio all the way to the south, or in their exact words, “A large high moves from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast states during this time ridging all the way south to the southeastern U.S. The strength and exact positioning of this high, along with how quickly it moves east, will be the deciding factor of how soon Gustav comes ashore and where.”. This will be an interesting event to watch on the satellite loops over the course of the next few days… Anyone paying attention to these events may well want to document them by saving any and all loops and imagery captured from satellite servers, to independent servers, and their own machines, and make copies as well… All eyes on “Gustav” and keep a look out on “Hanna” and company as well…

A look at the bigger picture…


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hurricane Gustav Continues to Strengthen
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, the Cuban Provinces of Matanzas, Cienfegos, Pinar Del Rio, La Habana, Iudad De La Habana, Isla De Juventud, Matanzas and Cienfuegos. A huricane watch remains in effect for the central Cuban Provinces of Villa Clara. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas for the central Cuban Provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego De Avila and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys, west of the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West.

Hurricane Gustav is located about 85 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth or near 20.8 north, 81.6 west. Gustav is moving to the northwest at 12 mph. Over the past couple of hours, Gustav has taken a more northerly track; however, it should resume a more northwesterly movement over the next couple of hours. Maximum-sustained winds are now 120 mph with higher gusts. This makes Gustav a major Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward from the center for 60 miles and tropical storm winds extend outward from the center for 160 miles. The estimated central pressure is 955 mb, or 28.20 inches. Gustav is gaining strength as is evident from satellite imagery and from land-based radar in Cuba. A distinct eye and eye wall has formed. The system is continuing to really wrap up with moisture feeding into the storm. Gustav will continue to grow in strength as it progresses over warm waters. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are likely across western Cuba with local amounts of 20 inches possible.

Weather conditions over Jamaica will slowly improve as Gustav slides to the northwest today. Gustav will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday as a Category 3 hurricane and could become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane later on Sunday and Sunday night. There is even the chance that intensification will take place quicker than this.

The northwest track that will take place into Sunday could break down some on Sunday night and Monday. A large high moves from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast states during this time ridging all the way south to the southeastern U.S. The strength and exact positioning of this high, along with how quickly it moves east, will be the deciding factor of how soon Gustav comes ashore and where. This high could at least slow the forward progress of Gustav and may even deflect it slightly to a more westerly course. So all interests along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close watch on the future progress of this impending dangerous hurricane. This is especially true from the extreme western Florida Panhandle to the southeastern Texas coast.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT today, Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 21.9 north and 66.3 west, or 240 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hanna is moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum-sustained winds estimated at near 50 mph. The estimated pressure in Hanna is 1001 millibars, or 29.56 inches. Hanna is experiencing strong, westerly shear and will probably not intensify much during the next 24 hours.

Hanna will not be a direct threat to land in the near future. However, moisture flowing into the storm will pass over the Leeward Islands tonight and on Saturday and this could bring parts of those islands gusty winds and 1-3 inches of rain. Hanna will move west-northwest to northwestward and stay east of the Bahamas this weekend. However, a change in the path, more to the west and then southwest can occur early to middle portions of next week.

A tropical wave about 210 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is being monitored for development over the next few days. This feature appears well organized on satellite photos and could develop into a depression or storm over the next couple of days. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Ike. A tropical wave along 44 west from 14 north to 23 north has a 1010 mb wave around 19 north and is moving west at 15 knots. The area of convection with this low is not as organized as earlier on Thursday.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark and Meteorologist Andrew Ulrich

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Aug 31, 2008 4:41 pm  Reply with quote  

“Killer” Hurricane “Gustav” is fast tracking it’s way across the Gulf of Mexico today, stirring up trouble reminiscent of “Katrina” in 2005 for residence of the Gulf coast, and especially Louisiana and in particular New Orleans. Officials are telling people to get out, hoping to avoid another catastrophic disaster, so close to the 3rd anniversary of the beast that was “Katrina”. This storm is moving very rapidly as experts describe it as “brisk northwest movement”, I was unable to determine its speed in mph in the following report. But I did witness its rapid progress away from Cuba on the latest 12 hour satellite loop, and my unprofessional response was “DAMN” this thing is moving at a pretty good clip.
May God bless and protect those in harms way as this thing hits home, all eyes wide open and keep your heads down, this storm has already taken life and is considered a KILLER!!!

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Gustav at Category 3; Hanna Still a Tropical Storm
Today, Gustav is a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph. At 11:00 a.m. EDT, the hurricane was 325 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 410 miles southeast of New Orleans.

Gustav is expected to strengthen today and make landfall as a strong Category 3 hurricane, possibly a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall midday Monday along the southern coast of Louisiana, most likely in Terrebonne or Lafourche parish.

A hurricane warning is in effect from Cameron, La., to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect east of the Alabama/Florida border to the Ochlockonee River and from west of Cameron, La., to High Island, Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the storm center, with tropical storm-force winds extending 200 miles from the center. The estimated central pressure is 962 mb, or 28.41 inches.


The brisk northwest movement of Gustav is expected to continue through today and tonight. This will bring tropical-storm conditions to the coast this evening and to New Orleans after midnight.

Hurricane conditions will develop on the Louisiana coast by early Monday morning and are possible in New Orleans by mid to late morning. A storm surge of 15-20 feet is expected on the Gulf coast near and just east of where the center makes landfall. Again, it appears that Terrebonne and Lofourche parishes will experience the highest storm surge.

Although Louisiana is bracing for the worst effects from Gustav, residents from the upper Texas Coast to the western Florida Panhandle should pay close attention for any shifts in the forecast track.

Gustav is expected to slow significantly as it pushes inland, which could result in major flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday across inland Louisiana and eastern Texas.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 23.3 north, 70.0 west, or 145 miles north-northeast of Grand Turk Island. Hanna is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph with maximum-sustained winds estimated near 50 mph.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles. The estimated central pressure in Hanna is 999 millibars, or 29.50 inches.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos, while a tropical storm watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas.

Hanna continues to interact with an upper-level low to the west. The interaction should prevent Hanna from intensifying through Monday. While rapid strengthening is unlikely, Hanna could reach hurricane strength by Tuesday as it moves slowly to the west.

A tropical wave just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands along 32 west mostly south of 20 north is being monitored for development. This feature appears well organized on satellite photos, with clouds wrapping in a spiral fashion around a low pressure area near 14.5 north, 32.0 west.

The system could develop into a depression or a tropical storm by tonight. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Ike.

Another tropical wave located along 48 west has a weak area of low pressure near 19 north, 48 west. This tropical wave continues to look poorly organized and is not expected to develop during the next 24-48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel

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starman1





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PostMon Sep 01, 2008 2:16 am  Reply with quote  

With over a million people leaving the Gulf coast, “Gustav” has sparked a mass “exodus” as reported by MSNBC. Few residence are taking their chances with this storm and are moving inland out of harms way. The republicans have also postponed some of their convention plans in wake of this storm as well, wise decision making for once… The president has decided to head for Texas instead, maybe this storm will turn and follow him there, and leave the people of Louisiana alone, one can only hope and pray no more lives are lost to this monster. Cuba reported no loss of life as yet, but the death toll in Haiti has risen to over 60 + dead, and still others were killed in Jamaica as well… The governor of Louisiana said it best, something on the order of, pray for the best and we’ll deal with the rest, or something close to that anyway, it gets the point across even if its not the exact quote I’m sure they won’t mind me saying it.
Here is the latest visible image before dark tonight, it won’t be a pretty morning unless you like it stormy.

To those who choose to stay put, may God bless and protect you through the storm that is “Gustav“…
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starman1





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PostMon Sep 01, 2008 3:19 pm  Reply with quote  

Impact Louisiana, “Gustav” has made landfall, 9/01/08... Category 2 hurricane, wind speed 110 mph…


“Hanna” is currently maintaining a holding pattern and has not reached hurricane strength. Expert reports claim “Hanna” helped pull some of the energy out of “Gustav” in the Gulf, lessening the intensification of the killer storm…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Gustav Hits Louisiana, Hanna and New Depression Forms
Gustav is a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph and has made landfall south of Houma, La. At 10:00 a.m. CDT, the hurricane was located near 28.9 north, 90.5 west. That is 75 miles south-southwest of New Orleans, La. and 15 miles south of Dulac, Louisiana. Gustav is moving northwest at 16 mph.

A hurricane warning is in effect from just east of High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Mississippi border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A tropical storm warning is in effect east of the Alabama/Mississippi border to the Ochlockonee River. Grand Isle, La. is under water as of the late morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend 70 miles from the storm center, with tropical storm-force winds extending 230 miles from the center. The central pressure as measured by a NOAA research aircraft is 954 mb, or 28.17 inches. Gustav will maintain its Category 2 status into the early afternoon as it is still relatively close to Gulf of Mexico waters and is nearly paralleling the coast over Terreboone Bay.

Tropical storm-force winds have already occurred in the New Orleans area and will continue through the afternoon. Hurricane conditions will continue along the Louisiana Coast into the afternoon.

A storm surge of 10-14 feet is expected on the Louisiana coast near and just east of the eye of the storm. The worst conditions may be in Terreboone Bay and Timbalier Bay at midday, as the eastern eye wall passes over these areas. Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes will experience the highest storm surge.

A storm surge near 10 feet is expected on Lake Borgne just east of New Orleans and will occur now into the first part of the afternoon.

Rainfall totals of 10-20 inches of rain are expected over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Similar rainfall totals might occur over parts of northeastern and East Texas if Gustav stalls tonight and Tuesday.

Once inland, Gustav is expected to slow its forward speed significantly. This could cause major flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday across inland Louisiana, northeastern and parts of eastern Texas, as well as across southern Arkansas.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 23.6 north, 72.4 west, or 90 miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahama Islands. Hanna has become nearly stationary with maximum-sustained winds estimated near 50 mph.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. The estimated central pressure in Hanna is 996 millibars, or 29.41 inches.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos islands, as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas.

Hanna remains poorly organized as it continues to interact with an upper-level low. This interaction should prevent Hanna from intensifying much through Monday night. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary or perhaps even loop just east of the central Bahamas during Monday and Tuesday. During this time, Hanna probably won't intensify enough to become a hurricane, but it could become a strong tropical storm by Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, Hanna should start to move to the north or northwest and could move at a much faster pace on Thursday into Friday according to recent computer forecast information. During this time, Hanna could intensify into a hurricane and perhaps affect the southeast coast of the United States by Friday. Through Monday, tropical storm-force winds should be mostly east and northeast of the center. However, the Turks and Caicos islands as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas will experience occasional wind gusts to and over tropical storm-force.

A new tropical depression has formed (9) as of 11:00 a.m. EDT. near 17.6 north and 39.5 west, or about 1470 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Further strengthening is expected with this system today and is likely to become the next named Atlantic tropical storm "Ike." Computer forecasts keep this developing system away from land for several days. Tropical Depression 9 is moving west at 16 mph and a general west to northwest movement is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 29.68 inches.

Another tropical wave located along 50 west has a weak area of low pressure near 21 north, 50 west. This tropical wave continues to look poorly organized and is not expected to develop during the next 24-48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski

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starman1





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PostTue Sep 02, 2008 2:21 pm  Reply with quote  

In the aftermath of the arrival of “Gustav”, Gulf coast residence await the OK to return home, after being chased out by this storm. Thankfully the loss of life was very minimal, as the storm did not pack quite the intensive punch as was predicted upon its arrival.
Better safe than dead, (Katrina) although there were some reports of critical patients who passed away as they were being transported to safer locations, and there may be others yet unknown, the overall result may have been far much worse had officials not acted and asked residence to get out, so bravo!!! to all those in charge who made the call and got the people to move on out…
This thing is still maintaining its circular shape over land now...

In the meantime, “Hanna” has become a hurricane and been down graded to a Tropical Storm again, and it now has company as well, “Ike” is the next in line at number 9 for this years seasons storms, and it is predicted to rev up to hurricane strength as well…
With so many storms to watch all coming in at once, it is going to be a very busy week for everyone concerned, keeping our eye’s open and the watch ever vigilant. Hey anyone notice what the weathers been like in (edit) Minnesota lately???
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hanna Weakens to Tropical Storm
Gustav has weakened to a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph and it is about 40 miles southeast of Shreveport, La. At 6:00 a.m. CDT Tuesday, the tropical depression was located near 31.7 north, 93.4 west. Gustav is moving northwest at 10 mph. The central pressure is 985 mb, or 29.09 inches.

Gustav will continue to weaken as it moves north to northwest during the day today across northern Louisiana and into northeastern Texas. Gustav should become a tropical rainstorm by tonight as it continues across northeastern Texas. Isolated tornadoes will still occur to the north and east of the track of Gustav through midweek, primarily during the afternoon hours. It now appears that Gustav will not stall; however, the forward speed will decrease until it finally gets absorbed by a frontal system middle to late week.

Total rainfall from Gustav is expected to approach 10-20 inches over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Wednesday. Heavy rain will slowly spread north into parts of eastern Oklahoma and central and northern Arkansas tonight into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts in these areas will likely be 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts. Major flooding will become the number one problem for much of Tuesday and Wednesday.

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Hanna was downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. Hanna is located near 21.3 north, 73.1 west, or 385 miles southeast of Nassau. Hanna continues to move erratically, with its current motion to the west at 2 mph. A motion to the northwest is expected to commence on Wednesday with an increase in forward speed. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 987 mb, or 29.15 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands.

Hanna will probably strengthen back to a Category 1 hurricane over the next 24 hours. It will also have an opportunity to increase in strength on Wednesday and Thursday and could become a Category 2 storm. Tropical storm-force winds with hurricane-force wind gusts should affect the Turks and Caicos islands as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas today and tonight. Rainfall from Hanna will increase and become more frequent in the central and southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos islands. Rainfall in these areas will average 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Wednesday. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 3-5 feet above normal water levels. Large and dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the southeastern U.S. coast over the next couple of days.

While the exact future path of Hanna is somewhat uncertain, the storm is likely to move northward and affect parts of Florida and the southeastern U.S. starting on Thursday. Gustav is expected to reach the Carolinas on Friday and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. All interests in these areas need to keep a close watch on the future progress of Hanna.

Tropical Storm Ike is near 18.6 north and 43.1 west, or about 1,235 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Further strengthening is expected with this system on Tuesday and Ike could become a hurricane by Wednesday. Computer guidance keeps Ike away from land through Thursday with the system passing close to or even over the Leeward Islands on Friday. Ike is moving west at 15 mph and a general west to west-northwest movement is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with gusts to 65 mph. The estimated central pressure is 1005 mb or 29.68 inches.

Tropical Depression 10 has formed as of 5 a.m. EDT near the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. T.D. 10 is moving to the west at 16 mph and is not expected to threaten any land for the foreseeable future. T.D. 10 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Josephine later today or tonight and it could reach hurricane strength within the next five days.

Another tropical wave is located along 58 west with a weak surface low near 17 north, 58 west. This tropical wave has split into two pieces. The southernmost part continues to look poorly organized and is not expected to develop during the next 24-48 hours. The northern part has become an area of disorganized clouds, showers and thunderstorms roughly centered near 30 north, 50 west. This area of thunderstorms shows no signs of development at this time, but will be watched.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins and Andrew Ulrich



Last edited by starman1 on Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:13 pm; edited 2 times in total
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starman1





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PostTue Sep 02, 2008 9:20 pm  Reply with quote  

And then there were 4...
Now a tenth named storm for this season has appeared in the Atlantic, making it a total of four active storms now brewing at the same time. “Josephine” has also qualified and received her name, it looks like someone has opened up the flood gates for these things out in the Atlantic waters, “red sky at morning”… What a week this is turning into…….

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Atlantic Basin Story

Hanna Weakens; Josephine Forms
Gustav has weakened to a tropical rainstorm with winds of 25 mph and it is about 15 miles southeast of Shreveport, La. At 10:00 a.m. CDT Tuesday, the tropical rainstorm was located near 32.4 north, 93.6 west. Gustav is moving north-northwest at 8 mph. The central pressure is 992 mb, or 29.29 inches.

Gustav will continue to weaken as it moves northward to northwestward during the day today across northern Louisiana into northeastern Texas. Isolated tornadoes will still occur to the north and east of the track of Gustav through midweek, primarily during the afternoon hours. It now appears that Gustav will not stall; however, the forward speed will decrease until it finally gets absorbed by a frontal system middle to late week.

Total rainfall from Gustav is expected to approach 10-20 inches over parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Wednesday. Heavy rain will slowly spread north into parts of eastern Oklahoma and central and northern Arkansas tonight into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts in these areas will likely be 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts. Major flooding will become the number one problem for much of Tuesday and Wednesday.

As of 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday, Hanna was still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. Hanna is located near 20.6 north, 72.9 west. This is just southeast of Great Inagua Island or 420 miles southeast of Nassau. Hanna continues to move slow and erratically, with its current motion to southeast less than 3 mph. This slow and erratic motion should continue into tonight. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 985 mb, or 29.09 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Interests in eastern Cuba, The northern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Hanna.

Hanna is experiencing strong northerly shear. This has caused the low level feature to become separated from the stronger thunderstorms now over Hispaniola. This has caused the lower level feature to drift southward over the past 24 hours. The shear might weaken Hanna further this afternoon and tonight. But then the shear should diminish on Wednesday and Hanna could become a hurricane once more later Wednesday or Wednesday night as it starts to move more to the northwest. Tropical storm-force winds with hurricane-force wind gusts should affect the Turks and Caicos islands as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall from Hanna will affect central and southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos islands. Rainfall in these areas will average 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Wednesday. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 3-5 feet above normal water levels. Large and dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the southeastern U.S. coast over through Friday.

While the exact future path of Hanna is somewhat uncertain, the storm is likely to move northward beginning on Wednesday spreading its affects over the northern Bahamason Wednesday and over parts of Florida and the southeastern U.S. starting on Thursday. Hanna should track very close to the Florida coast during Thursday and Thursday night then make landfall somewhere along the northern Florida, Georgia or South Carolina coast sometime on Friday. All interests from Florida to the mid Atlantic coast of the United States need to keep a close watch on the future progress of Hanna.

Tropical Storm Ike is near 18.9 north and 45 west, or about 1,110 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Further strengthening is expected with this system throughout Tuesday and Ike could become a hurricane by Wednesday. Ike is moving west at 18 mph and a general west to west-northwest movement is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with gusts to 70 mph. The estimated central pressure is 1002 mb or 29.59 inches. Computer forecast information keeps Ike away from land through Thursday. After that the system is expected to pass close to or even over the Leeward Islands on Friday, pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Tropical Depression 10 has organized into Tropical Storm Josephine near the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. Josephine is moving to the west at 15 mph and is not expected to threaten any land for the foreseeable future. Josephine is forecast to strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours and it could reach hurricane strength within the next five days.

Another tropical wave is located along 58 west with a weak surface low near 17 north, 58 west. This tropical wave has split into two pieces. The southernmost part continues to look poorly organized and is not expected to develop during the next 24-48 hours. The northern part has become an area of disorganized clouds, showers and thunderstorms roughly centered near 30 north, 50 west. This area of thunderstorms shows no signs of development at this time, but will be watched.

By AccuWeatherj Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Carl Erickson

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starman1





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PostWed Sep 03, 2008 2:51 pm  Reply with quote  

With all the activity going on in the Atlantic, “Karina” out in the East Pacific was nearly missed, although the storm isn’t showing much in the way of development it is the 11th named storm on the Pacific side, so here is the latest on it…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Karina Weakens
As of 8 p.m. PDT, Karina has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is now around 280 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Karina had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts. Karina is expected to continue to weaken as she encounters cooler waters over the next couple of days. The shear will diminish some, but it should not be enough to allow Karina to strengthen.

There are no other waves of interest that have the potential to develop at this time in the eastern Pacific.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist John Dlugoenski



Meanwhile, the action is still building out in the Atlantic waters, with what the experts are now calling, “The Atlantic Triple Threat”. Reminds me of what was happening out there back in September of 2001 leading up to the 11th. Here is an archived image of what was happening back then…


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

The Atlantic Triple Threat
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Hanna was still a tropical storm with maximum-sustained winds near 60 mph. Hanna is located near 20.2 north and 72.2 west. This is about 475 miles southeast of Nassau. Hanna has been nearly stationary over the past few hours and a slow, erratic motion should continue into tonight. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 993 mb, or 29.32 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. There is a hurricane watch out for the rest of the Bahamas as well. Meanwhile, the government of the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm warning for the northern coast from Puerto Plata west to Bahia De Manzanillo. Also, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of Haiti from Port Au Prince eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Interests in eastern Cuba, the northern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Hanna.

Hanna is experiencing strong northerly shear, but this shear should diminish during the day Wednesday, and Hanna could become a hurricane once more late on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical storm-force winds will affect the Turks and Caicos islands, as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas. Rainfall from Hanna will also affect the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Rainfall in these areas will average 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Wednesday. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 1-3 feet above normal water levels. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast through Friday.

While the exact future path of Hanna is somewhat uncertain, the storm is likely to move northward to start Wednesday, spreading its effects over the northern Bahamas later Wednesday as the path shifts to the northwest. Then Hanna will move east of Florida and the Southeast starting on Thursday. Right now Hanna looks to pass fairly far offshore of Florida, but could still have a few stronger wind gusts near the coast along with some outer bands reaching the eastern coast.

Tropical Storm Ike is near 20.6 north and 49.6 west, or about 930 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Further strengthening is expected with this system overnight, and Ike could become a hurricane by Wednesday. Ike is moving west-northwest at 18 mph, and a general west to west-northwest movement is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum-sustained winds are near 65 mph with gusts to 75 mph. The estimated central pressure is 996 mb, or 29.41 inches. Computer forecast information keeps Ike away from land through Thursday. After that, the system is expected to pass close to or even over the Leeward Islands on Friday, then near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to track westward in the far eastern Atlantic. Josephine is moving to the west at 12 mph and as of 5 a.m. EDT was centered around 13.7 north and 27.5. Josephine will likely remain a tropical storm through Wednesday, but may strengthen farther into a hurricane towards the end of this week. Winds are at 60 mph with higher gusts and the pressure is 29.53 inches.

After making landfall in Louisiana as a dangerous hurricane on Monday, Gustav has weakened to a tropical rainstorm with winds of 20 mph. Tropical Rainstorm Gustav is centered about 80 miles north of Shreveport, La., as of 10:00 p.m. CDT Tuesday. Gustav is moving north-northwestward at 5 mph. The central pressure is 995 mb, or 29.38 inches.

Another tropical wave is along 62 west, south of 19 north moving west around 20 mph. This wave has caused some showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean, but no organized tropical development is expected over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

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starman1





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PostThu Sep 04, 2008 2:50 am  Reply with quote  

“Ike” has become a major CAT 3 hurricane spinning out behind “Hanna” in the Atlantic, and experts are projecting a potential CAT 4 over the next couple of days, before it is expected to approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
“Gustav” is still holding on remaining mostly stationary, and yet still producing potentially flooding rain and possible tornadoes in the areas north of Texarkana, Ark. however, it does appear to be finally losing steam and density on the current satellite images…

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Ike A Major Hurricane; Hanna Strengthens
As of 8:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Hanna was still a tropical storm, but maximum sustained winds have now increased to near 65 mph. Hanna is located near 22.6 north and 71.8 west or about 200 miles east-southeast of San Salvador in the Bahamas. Hanna is moving toward the north around 14 mph. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 989 mb or 29.21 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles, mainly to the north of the center.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Hispaniola from Port Au Prince, Haiti, to Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. Interests in eastern Cuba, Puerto Rico, the northern Bahamas, the Florida Peninsula and all of the eastern United States should monitor the progress of Hanna.

As the environment around Hanna becomes less hostile, intensification should occur with Hanna reaching hurricane strength, possibly by early Thursday morning. Hanna this evening has become better organized as she moves northward. Tropical storm-force winds will affect the Turks and Caicos islands, as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas. Rainfall from Hanna will also affect the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Rainfall in these areas will average 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Wednesday. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 1-3 feet above normal water levels. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast Coast through Friday.

While the exact future path of Hanna is somewhat uncertain, the storm began a northward motion Wednesday afternoon. Hanna will move east of Florida and the Southeast starting on Thursday. Right now Hanna looks to pass fairly far offshore of Florida, but could still have a few stronger wind gusts near the coast along with some outer bands reaching the eastern coast.

While the most likely area of landfall is early this weekend along the Carolina coast from Charleston on northeast, we continue to explore the possibility that Hanna will recurve more sharply and could possibly graze Cape Hatteras, N.C. on a path that would then continue to take the storm northeastward. At any rate the strength of Hanna at time of landfall is expected to range from a Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane. A path paralleling the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts could result in hurricane-force winds well up along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast. A track farther inland over North Carolina would result in a swath of heavy rain, as well as strong winds spreading northward and inland from the landfall area.

Ike has strengthened to a major hurricane as of 8:00 p.m. EDT and is near 21.7 north and 53.2 west, or about 645 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 115 mph with higher gusts, bringing Ike to a Category 3 hurricane. The estimated central pressure is 960 mb, or 28.35 inches. Further strengthening is expected with this system over the next several days as a Category 4 storm possible as Ike heads westward. Ike is moving west-northwest at 18 mph, and a general west to west-northwest movement is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Computer forecast information keeps Ike away from land through Thursday. After that, the system is expected to pass close to or even over the Leeward Islands on Friday, then near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to track westward in the far eastern Atlantic. Josephine is moving to the west at 13 mph and as of 5 p.m. EDT was centered around 13.8 north and 29.9. Josephine will likely remain a tropical storm through Wednesday, but may strengthen further into a hurricane toward the end of this week. Winds are at 60 mph with higher gusts and the pressure is 29.44 inches.

After making landfall in Louisiana as a dangerous hurricane on Monday, Gustav was a tropical rainstorm with winds of 25 mph. Tropical Rainstorm Gustav is centered about 25 miles north-northwest of Texarkana, Ark. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT Wednesday, Gustav was nearly stationary, but is expected to resume a north-northeast path tonight and Thursday. The central pressure is 998 mb, or 29.47 inches. Tropical Rainstorm Gustav will continue to produce areas of flooding rain, as well as spawn damaging thunderstorms and a few tornadoes into Thursday.

Another tropical wave is along 64 west, south of 19 north moving west around 20 mph. This wave has caused some showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean, but no organized tropical development is expected over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski and Meteorologist Andy Mussoline

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starman1





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PostThu Sep 04, 2008 2:59 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane “Ike” is now cruising at CAT 4 here on September 4th, with current winds gusting over 145 mph. It looks like the East Coast may be in for a ride next week.
“Hanna” seems to be paving the way for “Ike” who is nearing CAT 5 in intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which is reached when extreme storm winds maintain a catastrophic 155 mph. Storms that reach this potential can bring in with them storm surges greater than eighteen ft. in height, that is a lot of water. Lets hope this one settles down before it gets nearer to US…
Current track maps have it on a course that is for now plotting near the Bermuda Triangle toward Florida, but it is anyone’s guess at this point where this thing may run aground, eyes wide open on the East side…


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Ike Now a Category 4; Hanna Threat
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Thursday, Hanna was still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. Hanna is located near 24.1 north and 73.1 west, or about 280 miles east-southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas. Hanna is moving to the northwest around 12 mph. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 989 mb, or 29.20 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles, mainly to the north of the center.

A tropical storm warning has been discontinued for the southeastern Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. Interests in eastern Cuba, Puerto Rico, the northern Bahamas, the Florida Peninsula and all of the eastern United States should monitor the progress of Hanna.

As the environment around Hanna becomes less hostile, intensification will occur with Hanna reaching hurricane strength, possibly during the afternoon Thursday or Thursday night. Tropical storm-force winds will affect the Bahamas, mainly the central and northern Bahamas, over the next 24 hours. Rainfall from Hanna will also affect the central and northern Bahamas through Thursday night. Rainfall in these areas will average 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Thursday night. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 1-3 feet above normal water levels. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast through Friday.

While the exact future path of Hanna is somewhat uncertain, the storm began a northward motion Wednesday afternoon. Hanna will move east of Florida and the Southeast starting on Thursday afternoon. Right now Hanna looks to pass fairly far offshore of Florida but could still have a few stronger wind gusts near the coast along with some outer bands reaching the eastern coast.

While the most likely area of landfall is early this weekend along the Carolina coast from Charleston on northeast, we continue to explore the possibility that Hanna will recurve more sharply and could possibly graze Cape Hatteras, N.C., on a path that would then continue to take the storm northeastward. At any rate, the strength of Hanna at time of landfall is expected to be a strong Category 1 or a low Category 2 hurricane. A path paralleling the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts could result in hurricane-force winds well up along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast. A track farther inland over North Carolina would result in a swath of heavy rain, as well as strong winds spreading northward and inland from the landfall area.

Ike strengthened into a major hurricane last evening as a Category 3 then strengthened further into a Category 4. As of 5:00 a.m., Ike was near 22.7 north and 55.8 west, or about 610 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 145 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 935 mb, or 27.61 inches. Ike is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next couple of days. Moving west-northwest at 17 mph, Ike is expected to remain on a generally westward path for the next couple of days. Computer forecast information keeps Ike away from land through Thursday. After that, the system is expected to pass close to or even over the Leeward Islands on Friday, then north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday and continuing toward the Bahamas on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to track westward in the far eastern Atlantic. Josephine is moving to the west at 12 mph and as of 5 a.m. EDT Thursday was centered around 14.2 north and 31.3 west. Josephine has re-strengthened with winds now at 60 mph. A similar intensity or even a slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days.

After making landfall in Louisiana as a dangerous hurricane earlier this week, Gustav has transitioned into a tropical rainstorm. Gustav will track with increasing speed towards the Great Lakes over the next day or two. Flooding rains will be a major concern across parts of Midwest through at least Thursday.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Eric Leister and Matthew Rinde

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starman1





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PostFri Sep 05, 2008 12:44 am  Reply with quote  

This is the first time I can remember the experts “shouting” a warning in their reports. In the following Accuweather hurricane report the capitalized paragraph is all their doing, I have not edited the quote what so ever. It appears that “Hanna” has them up in arms waving the red flag warning for the South East Coast upward to WASHINGTON DC and the Delaware Bay, although it is just a Tropical Storm warning, they are sure making a big to do about it, and predict that it may still intensify to hurricane strength. I think it may just be a prelude to what just might be following it up, in case you haven’t been following this little scenario, “Ike” is still a “turner” (sorry, couldn’t resist) maintaining a category 4 class hurricane status right behind “Hanna” (who is not headed to Montana, ohhh, that’s twice in one report, (my bad)) and in all likelihood will end up being the big player in this show down. My guess is as soon as the GOP have finished their party tonight, some counter measures may be witnessed in the way of wild weather in the mid-west headed east, if not me thinks “Ike” might want to be kicking somebody’s back side, read my post… All kidding aside, heads up on the East Coast, looks like your in for a wild ride for a bit…
“Hanna” looks like it has a sickle in this next image… But “Ike” is keeping a close eye on it. (Sorry, (again))…

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hanna Threatens Southeast; Ike Still Category 4
As of 5:00 PM EDT Thursday, Hanna was still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. Hanna is located near 25.5 north 75.0 west, or about 155 miles east northeast of Nassau in the Bahamas. Hanna is moving to the northwest around 14 mph. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 988 mb, or 29.18 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 315 miles, mainly to the north and east of the storm's center.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

As the environment around Hanna becomes less hostile, intensification will occur with Hanna reaching hurricane strength by Friday morning. Tropical storm-force winds will affect the Bahamas, mainly the central and northern Bahamas, over the next 24 hours. Rainfall from Hanna will also affect the central and northern Bahamas through Thursday night. Rainfall in these areas will average 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts possible through Thursday night. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 1-3 feet above normal water levels. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where the winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast through Friday.

While the exact future path of Hanna is somewhat uncertain, the storm is back into an increasing steering flow. Hanna will move northwest and stay east of Florida during Thursday night and Friday. Hanna could still have a few stronger wind gusts just below tropical storm force near the coast along with some outer rain bands reaching the eastern coast.

The most likely area of landfall will occur along the Carolina coast between Charleston South Carolina and the Outer Banks of North Carolina later Friday night or early Saturday morning. There is some chance that Hanna could recurve more sharply and could just just graze the Outer Banks of North Carolina. But our current thinking is that Hanna will move inland and move over eastern North Carolina early Saturday morning with an increase in forward speed. Hanna's path will parallel the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts roughly just east of the I-95 corridor. Areas within 100 miles either side of the storm's path will experience 2-4 inches of rain with some isolated 5-6 inch totals. Tropical storm force winds of 40-60 mph will occur along and mostly east of the I-95 corridor from east central North Carolina northward into eastern New England. The strongest wind gusts of over 60 mph will occur right along the coast. Hanna will bring very rough and dangerous surf from the east coast of Florida tonight and tomorrow northward to the southeast and mid Atlantic coast later tomorrow through Saturday then affect the New England coast of the United States Saturday night and Sunday.

As of 5:00 PM Ike was near 23.6 north and 58.2 west, or about 505 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 945 mb, or 27.91 inches. The hurricane is moving west northwest at 14 mph. Ike is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next couple of days, though it may fluctuate between Category 3 and Category 4 strength. Moving west or west-northwest at 14 mph, Ike is expected to remain on this path for the next few days. Computer forecast information keeps Ike north of north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday. Ike will affect the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sunday and will start to affect the southeast Bahamas during Sunday and Sunday night. Ike could directly impact the southeast U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to look poorly organized. As of 11 a.m. EDT Thursday Josephine was centered around 14.6 north, 33.2 west. Josephine has weakened slightly Thursday afternoon with estimate maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. Josephine will remain a weak tropical storm for the next couple of days as shear from a strong upper level system to the north remains close to the tropical storm.

After making landfall in Louisiana as a dangerous hurricane earlier this week, Gustav has transitioned into a tropical rainstorm. The remnant low from Gustav is tracking towards the Great Lakes with a large area of heavy rain. Flooding rain will be a major concern across parts of Midwest and into parts of the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow. This remnant low will fall apart over the Great Lakes by Saturday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

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