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2008 HURRICANE WATCH

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Cloudy Skies





Joined: 22 Aug 2007
Posts: 122
Location: UK
PostFri Sep 05, 2008 11:02 am  Reply with quote  

quote:
Originally posted by starman1
This is the first time I can remember the experts “shouting” a warning in their reports. In the following Accuweather hurricane report the capitalized paragraph is all their doing, I have not edited the quote what so ever.


All NHC advisories etc are issued in capitals. Accuweather have just copied one direct into their own report.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/050900.shtml
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Sep 05, 2008 1:39 pm  Reply with quote  

Cloudy,
your right those reports you site have always been in caps, but there is no mention made of a quote in that report, (even though it may be so) I still think it was used for effect... My opinion, after three years of reading their reports. Anyway, thank you for your clarification.
And now, back to the watch...
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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Location: Earth
PostFri Sep 05, 2008 2:39 pm  Reply with quote  

It appears that “Ike” has lost some of its intensity for the time being, now rated at CAT 3 which is still a very powerful threat, but yet quieter than a CAT 4. And for the moment, the progress of “Hanna” is the greater issue as it nears impacting the East Coast still just a Tropical Storm, but a storm none the less and still a potential threat.
Just as interesting to watch, and appearing now on satellite imagery loops, are the storm systems brewing over the Midwest regions, which are apparently traveling toward the same vicinities as predicted for the current Atlantic storms. They will have a direct effect on the outcome of the incoming storms trajectories, as they are moving the air and atmosphere around them with them as they progress eastward.
Watch…

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hanna Eyes Southeast; Ike Now Category 3
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Hanna was still a tropical storm but was beginning to show signs of strengthening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Hanna is located near 28.2 north and 78.2 west, or about 425 miles south of Wilmington, N.C. Hanna is moving to the northwest around 18 mph. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 980 mb, or 28.94 inches. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 315 miles, mainly to the north and east of the storm's center.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Altamaha Sound, Ga., northward to Chincoteague Island, Va. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.

A hurricane watch is in effect from north of Edisto Beach, S.C., to Currituck Beach Light, including Pamlico Sound.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Chincoteague, Va., northward to Sandy Hook in New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac, Washington, D.C., and the Delaware Bay.

Hanna remains somewhat disorganized with an asymmetric look, as the greatest amount of convection remains north and west of the center. Dry air continues to limit the rain south and east of the center. Hanna is still expected to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane during the day Friday. In reality, there is little difference in the effects from a strong tropical storm and a low-end Category 1 hurricane. Storm surge caused by the winds around the storm will average 1-3 feet above normal water levels. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast into Saturday.

Hanna will move northwestward and stay east of Florida Friday and eventually turn more northerly later Friday and Friday night. Hanna could still have a few stronger wind gusts just below tropical storm force near the coast of Florida with some outer rain bands bringing periods of rain to the state.

The most likely area of landfall is along the Carolina coast between Charleston, S.C., and the Outer Banks of North Carolina later Friday night or early Saturday morning. There is some chance that Hanna could recurve more sharply and just graze the Outer Banks of North Carolina, but our current thinking is that Hanna will move inland over eastern North Carolina early Saturday morning with an increase in forward speed. Hanna's path will parallel the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts roughly just east of the I-95 corridor. Areas within 100 miles of either side of the storm's path will experience 2-4 inches of rain with some isolated 5- to 6-inch totals. Tropical storm-force winds of 40-60 mph will blow along and mostly east of the I-95 corridor from east-central North Carolina northward into eastern New England. The strongest wind gusts, over 60 mph, will occur right along the coast. Hanna will bring very rough, dangerous surf from the east coast of Florida today northward to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts later today through Saturday, then the New England coast Saturday night and Sunday.

As of 5:00 a.m. Friday, Ike was near 23.7 north and 61.0 west, or about 460 miles north of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 125 mph with higher gusts. The estimated central pressure is 945 mb, or 27.91 inches. The hurricane is moving westward at 15 mph. Ike is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next couple of days, though it may fluctuate due to influence from shear Friday into Friday night. A west, then west-southwest track is forecast over the next few days. Computer forecast information keeps Ike north of the Leeward Islands Friday, then north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday. Ike will buffet the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sunday and start to affect the southeastern Bahamas Sunday and Sunday night. Ike could directly impact the southeastern U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to look poorly organized. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Josephine was centered around 15.7 north and 34.3 west. Winds have increased back to 50 mph. Josephine will remain a weak tropical storm for the next couple of days as shear from a strong upper-level system to the north remains close to this tropical storm.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave along 21 west, south of 19 north, has a cyclonic circulation north of 14 north and some showers. The leading edge of these showers is now approaching the eastern Cape Verde Islands.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Sep 06, 2008 2:23 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane warnings for “Hanna” have been discontinued as this storm moves inland now depositing its rain load to the Northeast region, still packing some winds as it makes its way along the Eastern Seaboard.



“Ike”, however, is still a powerful hurricane headed west, “possibly” into the Gulf waters by way of the Bahamas, Southern Florida, and/or Northern Cuba. If it maintains the current predicted track and intensity, we could have another mass exodus along the Gulf Coast near the anniversary of another American Tragedy…
Pray it doesn’t, and we don’t…….


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hanna Inland; Ike Remains a Major Hurricane as Josephine Fades...
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 35.6 north, 78.1 west, or about 20 miles north-northwest of Goldsboro, N.C. Hanna's maximum-sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph with the tropical storm-force winds mainly confined to the east of the center of circulation. Hanna's central pressure was at 985 mb, or 29.09 inches and the storm is moving to the north-northeast at 22 mph and is forecast to continue to accelerate to the northeast. Given such a rapid forward motion, winds associated with Hanna are not expected to decrease too rapidly and tropical-storm conditions are forecast for the entire Northeast coast.

At 5 a.m EDT all hurricane warnings have been discontinued.

Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for areas north of South Santee River, S.C., to Cape Fear, N.C., but continue northeastward to Merrimack River, Mass.; including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, all of the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac, Washington D.C., Delaware Bay, New York Harbor and Long Island Sound.

Hanna made landfall this morning at 3:20 a.m. near the North Carolina/South Carolina border as a strong tropical storm, but there is little difference in the effects from a strong tropical storm and a low-end Category 1 hurricane. Storm-surge flooding will continue up the coast and average 3-6 feet above-normal water levels along the North Carolina coastline and 1-3 above normal northeastward. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast on Saturday, as well as along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast on Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Our current thinking is that Hanna will continue to move inland early on Saturday morning and should be near Norfolk, Va., by the early afternoon as it continues to accelerate. Hanna's path will parallel the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts roughly just east of the I-95 corridor and possibly just offshore. Areas within 100 miles of either side of the storm's path will experience 2-4 inches of rain with some isolated 5- to 6-inch totals. The highest rainfall totals will be along and to the west of Hanna's track. Tropical storm-force winds of 40-60 mph will impact the I-95 corridor and points eastward from east-central North Carolina northward into eastern New England. The strongest wind gusts, over 60 mph, will occur right along the coast. Isolated tornadoes are also possible to the north and east of the storm center.

As of 2:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a tropical storm warning for the northern peninsula, from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border with Haiti. A tropical storm warning has also been issued for the northern coast of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives. At 11:00 p.m. EDT Friday, a hurricane warning was issued for the Turks and Caicos islands and the southeastern Bahamas. Also, a hurricane watch has been issued for the Central Bahamas.

At 5:00 a.m. Saturday, Ike was near 22.4 north and 67.1 west, or about 265 miles east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. Maximum-sustained winds remain at 115 mph with higher gusts. The central pressure as reported by Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 962 mb, or 28.41 inches. The hurricane is moving west-southwest at 16 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles.

Ike is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next couple of days. The intensity of Ike may fluctuate due to influence from northerly wind shear over the next 24 hours. A west-southwest track is forecast over the next few days with a gradual turn to the west. Ike will stay well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and towards the southern Bahamas during the day. Ike will be very near the Turks and Caicos islands by midnight Saturday night and track through the central Bahamas during the day Sunday. The track of Ike has become a little more clear, at least, initially with a general consensus taking Ike through the Bahamas and into the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some chance that Ike could impact the Florida Peninsula on Monday night, but as of now Ike looks to pass close to or over the Florida Keys. Given this track, Ike will also pass very close to the north coast of Cuba. Because of this, all interests in the Bahamas, Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast states should keep up with the latest information on Ike.

At 5 a.m. EDT Saturday, the last advisory on Tropical Depression Josephine has been issued. There is a very small possibility that advisories could be re-issued in the next couple of days as the remnants of Josephine continue to move west-northwest over the open Atlantic; however, this is not expected.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not anticipated.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins and Andrew Ulrich

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Sep 07, 2008 1:43 am  Reply with quote  

Hurricane “Ike” has reached its CAT 4 hurricane status once again, and experts predict it may well exceed that level to a CAT 5 before possibly affecting Cuba, Bahamas, Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast states as it enters the waters of the Gulf… This storm is revving it up and looks like it may be the hardest hitting one yet this season, it is ranked or classified as a more powerful storm than “Gustav” was, presently, and looks to be taking aim directly at Santo Domingo and Cuba on the current track maps. All eyes on “Ike”…

Meanwhile “Hanna” has hit the accelerator and moved right on up the East Coast in a hurry, traveling northeast at 28 mph according to current reports.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hanna Picking Up Speed; Ike Continues to Strengthen
As of 8:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Hanna was located near 39.5 north, 74.6 west, or near Atlantic, New Jersey. Hanna's maximum-sustained winds climbed to 55 mph with the tropical storm-force winds mainly confined to the east of the center of circulation. Hanna's central pressure was at 992 mb, or 29.29 inches, and the storm is moving to the northeast at 28 mph and is forecast to continue to accelerate this evening. Given such a rapid forward motion, winds associated with Hanna are not expected to decrease too rapidly and tropical-storm conditions are forecast for the entire Northeast coast.

Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued from the border of Virginia and North Carolina including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, all of the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac, Washington D.C., Delaware Bay, New York Harbor and Long Island Sound.

Hanna made landfall this morning at 3:20 a.m. near the North Carolina/South Carolina border as a strong tropical storm, but there is little difference in the effects from a strong tropical storm and a low-end Category 1 hurricane. Storm-surge flooding will continue up the coast from Virginia and average 1-3 degrees above normal northeastward. Large, dangerous waves will batter areas where winds are blowing onshore. Swells from Hanna will cause rough surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast on Saturday, as well as along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast on Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Our current thinking is that Hanna will continue to accelerate this evening. Hanna's path will parallel the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts roughly just east of the I-95 corridor and possibly just offshore. Areas within 100 miles of either side of the storm's path will experience 2-4 inches of rain with some isolated 5-to 6-inch totals. The highest rainfall totals will be along and to the west of Hanna's track. Tropical storm-force winds of 40-60 mph will impact the I-95 corridor and points eastward from east-central Virginia northward into eastern New England. The strongest wind gusts, over 60 mph, will occur right along the coast. Isolated tornadoes are also possible to the north and east of the storm center.

At 8:00 p.m. Saturday, Ike was near 21.3 north and 70.2 west, or about 60 miles east of Grand Turk Island. Maximum-sustained winds have increased to 135 mph with higher gusts, making Ike a powerful Category 4 hurricane. The estimated central pressure has dropped to 947 mb, or 27.96 inches. The hurricane is moving west-southwest at 12 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos islands and the southeastern Bahamas. Also, a hurricane watch remains in effect for the Central Bahamas as well as portions of eastern Cuba. This includes the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago De Cuba, Granma, and Camaguey. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from Cabo Frances Viejo, Dominican Republic, westward to Gonaives, Haiti.

Ike strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane status Saturday afternoon as it moved west-southwest. Some further strengthening is possible over the next day or so as Ike encounters less wind shear and some warmer water. This may allow Ike to become a strong Category 4 or even a Category 5 hurricane before affecting Cuba later Sunday or Sunday night. The initial thought was that Ike would move over water stirred up from Hanna, but now it appears that it will move south of those waters. A west-southwest track is forecast over the next few days with a gradual turn to the west. Ike will be very near the Turks and Caicos islands by midnight Saturday night and track through the central Bahamas during the day Sunday. The track of Ike has become a little more clear, at least, with a general consensus taking Ike through the Bahamas and into the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some chance that Ike could impact the Florida Peninsula on Monday night, but as of now Ike looks to pass close to or over the Florida Keys. Given this track, Ike will also pass very close to the north coast of Cuba. Because of this, all interests in the Bahamas, Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast states should keep up with the latest information on Ike.

At 5 a.m. EDT Saturday, the last advisory on Tropical Depression Josephine has been issued. There is a very small possibility that advisories could be re-issued in the next couple of days as the remnants of Josephine continue to move west-northwest over the open Atlantic; however, this is not expected.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not anticipated.

By AccuWeather Meteorologists Andrew Ulrich and Josh Newhard

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Sep 07, 2008 2:29 pm  Reply with quote  

“Hanna” is a done deal as it speeds away toward Nova Scotia at a reported 36 mph, all further advisories for this storm have been discontinued…

“Ike” on the other hand is not showing any signs of decay at this point it still remains a dangerously powerful CAT 4 hurricane, sustaining wind speeds of over 135 mph, moving west at 14 mph… Experts report, “Ike” is headed into the Gulf of Mexico by way of the Bahamas, potentially affecting the Dominican Republic and Cuban provinces as well as areas of Florida and the Florida Keys before arriving in the Gulf and once again terrorizing the people of the Gulf Coast states… Some are worried residence may become complacent to warnings of hurricane threats because of the unrealized potential devastation delivered by “Gustav”. However, with the impact made and damage delivered by “Katrina”, officials would be wise to call a wolf a wolf when it nears their village, weather the wolf enters and takes a life or not it is still a wolf, and capable of killing when ever IT decides to do so…
Looks like a direct hit on what appears to be the Great Inagua Island of the Bahamas in this image…


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hanna Loses Her Tropical Characteristics; Ike Remains a Category 4 Hurricane
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Hanna has lost all tropical characteristics and there will not be any more advisories on the storm. Hanna was located near 42.6 north, 70.0 west, which places the center just northeast of Boston, Mass. Tropical storm-force winds are mainly confined to the east and south of the center. Hanna continues to pick up speed to the northeast at 36 mph. Given such a rapid forward motion, winds associated with Hanna are not expected to decrease too rapidly and tropical-storm conditions are forecast for Nova Scotia during the day.

All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.

Heavy rain will fall early this morning over far eastern Maine and rainfall totals will approach 2-3 inches in this area. Winds will be decreasing throughout the day, and the sun will peek out this afternoon as swells associated with Hanna decline.

At 8:00 a.m. Sunday, Ike was near 21.0 north and 72.8 west, very near the Turks and Caicos and just east of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum-sustained winds remain near 135 mph with higher gusts, making Ike a powerful Category 4 hurricane. The central pressure as reported by Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 949 mb, or 28.02 inches. The hurricane is moving west at 14 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 145 miles.

At 8 a.m. EDT the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm watch for the Cayman Islands.

Cuba has extended the hurricane warnings to the provinces of Camaguey and Ciego de Avila. Hurricane watches have been extended to the provinces of Villa Clara and Cienfuegos.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for Andros Islands in the Bahamas.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos islands and both the central and southeastern Bahamas, as well as portions of eastern Cuba. This includes the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago De Cuba, Granma and Camaguey. A hurricane watch is in effect for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego De Avila and Sancti Spiritus in eastern Cuba.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from Cabo Frances Viejo, Dominican Republic, westward to Gonaives, Haiti.

Ike strengthened to Category 4 hurricane status on Saturday afternoon as it moved west-southwest. This current strength is expected to remain as such as Ike nears the southeastern Bahamas today and over eastern Cuba tonight. The initial thought was that Ike would move over water stirred up from Hanna, but now it appears that it will move south of those waters. A westward track is forecast over the next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the west. The track of Ike has become a little more clear, at least, with a general consensus taking Ike through the Bahamas and into the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some chance that Ike could impact the Florida Peninsula on Monday night, but as of now, Ike looks to pass close to or over the Florida Keys. Given this track, Ike will also pass very close to the north coast of Cuba. Because of this, all interests in the Bahamas, Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast states should keep up with the latest information on Ike. Ike could weaken slightly as it passes over both the Bahamas and Cuba on Sunday, but intensification over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico early next week could lead to a re-intensification.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not anticipated.

By AccuWeather Meteorologists Randy Adkins, Carrie McCabe

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starman1





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PostMon Sep 08, 2008 12:44 am  Reply with quote  

“Ike” was slowed down a little this afternoon as it passed directly over Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas. The storm is now rated a powerful CAT 3, and appears to be headed for Cuban territory where it is expected to be weakened. However, Cuban’s are being given hurricane warnings over multiple provinces, and hopefully take heed to protect themselves as this beast passes, potentially bringing with it flooding storm surges upwards of 18 feet “above normal tide levels”. Experts are predicting it will strengthen again as it passes Cuba entering warmer waters in the Gulf, then onward to the southern United States.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Ike Takes Aim On Cuba; Hanna No Longer a Threat
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Hanna has lost all tropical characteristics and there will not be any more advisories on the storm. The remnants of Hanna have pushed northeast from Maine Sunday morning and are now over Maritime Canada.

At 5:00 p.m. Sunday, Ike was near 21.1 north and 74.6 west, 75 miles north-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. Maximum-sustained winds have dropped to 120 mph with higher gusts, making Ike a powerful Category 3 hurricane. The central pressure as reported by Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 945 mb, or 27.91 inches. The hurricane is moving west at 14 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 145 miles.

As of 5 p.m. EDT, the Government of Cuba has issued a hurricane warning for the province of Matanzas. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, and Cienfuegos. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos islands and both the central and southeastern Bahamas, as well as portions of eastern Cuba. This includes the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago De Cuba, Granma and Camaguey, and Ciego de Avila.

As of 5 p.m. EDT, the government of Cuba has expanded the hurricane watch to include the provinces of Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, and Cuidad De Habana. A hurricane watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward, including the Dry Tortugas. A hurricane watch remains in effect for Andros Islands in the Bahamas.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, a tropical storm warning has been issued for Andros Island in the Bahamas. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Ike weakened slightly to Category 3 strength after it moved over Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas Sunday afternoon, packing winds of near 135 mph. The westward track will continue Sunday night, and the storm is expected to move near or over eastern Cuba tonight. Ike will bring storm surge flooding of 13-18 feet above normal tide levels and rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches. Higher amounts of 12 inches are possible as well. The storm will slowly take a west-northwest shift and move along the coast of Cuba through Monday. The intensity and speed of the storm will fluctuate over the next 24-48 hours due to the interaction with the Cuban landmass, and Ike could weaken to a Category 1 during this time. The storm will re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, impacting the Florida Keys Monday afternoon or Tuesday. Some re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico is possible as the storm moves over warmer waters. In the meantime, all interests in the Bahamas, Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast states should keep up with the latest information on Ike. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf will effect the southeast United States Coast through the next several days.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not anticipated.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Carrie McCabe and Kate Walters



Out on the other side, in the East Pacific Ocean, another named storm is brewing. Checking in at number 12, is Tropical Storm “Lowell”, and for now it appears to be no major threat to land.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Lowell Strengthens Slightly
As of 2 p.m. PDT, Tropical Storm Lowell was located at 17.9 north and 108.8 west, or around 305 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Winds have increased to 50 mph sustained with higher gusts. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles from the center and the central pressure is estimated around 996 mb, or 29.41 inches.

The storm is moving to the northwest at around 12 mph and is expected to continue on this track over the next several days. Lowell could strengthen into a hurricane by early next week as it moves away from the coast of Mexico. The storm could bring up to 2 to 4 inches of rain to the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico through Sunday.

Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific Basin, there are no other features of interest that have the potential to develop at this time.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kate Walters

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starman1





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PostMon Sep 08, 2008 4:35 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane “Ike” is currently maintaining status as a CAT 2, as it has crossed the island of Cuba spreading its wrath in the form of “life threatening wind and rains” over the people and provinces. It is expected to linger in its progress over the Island as the day continues and experts predict it will move more to the north as it presses on…
Officials in The Florida Keys have issued evacuation warnings to residence and tourist, to avoid the potential of mass loses of life should the storm intensify and move in closer to them…
As this storm moves further from Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, its track will be easier to judge. The current track maps point it at the Texas/Louisiana border, but it is still just their best guess based on what it has done, and these things tend to have a mind of their own, so for the most part it is a wait and see game…
On the 7th anniversary of 911, many American’s will once again be forced into anticipating tragedy as “Ike” rears its ugliness toward them. May God give strength, courage, and protection to any and all whom are in harms way with respect to this storm, and to those whom have or are experiencing its wrath now, comfort and healing as it passes.
Here is the latest image of this “beast", which is also a confirmed killer according to reports of at least 58 more people dead in Haiti, following "Gustav's" rampage, bringing the number of dead there to over a reported 300+ individuals between the two storms.


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Ike Moving across Cuba, Still a Category 2 Hurricane
As of 11 a.m. Monday, Ike was located near 21.1 north and 78.5 west, or 45 miles west-southwest of Camaguey, Cuba. Ike remains a Category 2 hurricane with maximum-sustained winds holding near 100 mph with higher gusts. The central pressure is estimated at 960 mb, or 28.35 inches. The hurricane is moving west at 14 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay. This is in addition to the hurricane watch that is also in effect.

The government of Cuba has issued new hurricane warnings for the provinces of La Habana, Ciudad De Habana, Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Las Tunas, Granma, Camaguey, Ciego De Avila, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a tropical storm warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Andros Island and Ragged Island.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman.

Hurricane Ike weakened to Category 2 strength after making landfall on Sunday evening. Hurricane Ike will continue to cause extensive damage to the central provinces of Cuba this afternoon. Life-threatening, damaging winds and flooding rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches with higher amounts of 20 inches will spread westward across central Cuba and into western Cuba this afternoon, even as Ike weakens. The hurricane will slowly turn to the west-northwest and move across central Cuba through tonight. Ike is expected to weaken further to a Category 1 hurricane during this time, perhaps even to a tropical storm over western Cuba on Tuesday. Ike will re-emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night or Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions will impact the Florida Keys later Monday into Tuesday and we cannot rule out hurricane-force wind gusts in squalls of heavy rain. Re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico is likely as Ike moves over warmer waters mid to late week and Ike could become a major hurricane in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. In the meantime, all interests in the Bahamas, Florida and along the Gulf Coast should keep up with the latest information on Ike. Dangerous rip currents and rough surf will affect the southeastern United States coast through the next several days.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not anticipated.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologists Brian Wimer and Alex Sosnowski

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starman1





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PostTue Sep 09, 2008 3:02 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane “Ike” is still thrashing Cuba, as it is preparing to make its way into the open Gulf waters and possibly then to Texas. The storm has lost some intensity, but is still maintaining a CAT 1 hurricane status as it continues to rain down on Cuban provinces, threatening lives there with torrential flooding rains and steady winds over 80 mph.
Our hearts reach out to those who may be suffering in the storm there…
Experts believe “Ike” will re-intensify as it makes it way into the Gulf of Mexico, before threatening somewhere along the western Gulf Coast states, and now most believe Texas may be the point of impact. Houston, you may have a problem…
The Governor of Louisiana said it was to early to reissue evacuation warnings at this point, but they are keeping watch as they are monitoring the storm very closely as it progresses. Hopefully, “Ike” will pass them by, as it would be very taxing on the people to have to evacuate from their homes again so soon after “Gustav”, but if necessary the order will be given and the people will go. Lets pray that it does not have to be so…
Still waiting to see what this thing will do, here is the latest image.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Hurricane Ike Skimming the Southern Coast of Cuba
As of 8 a.m. Tuesday, Ike was located near 22.4 north and 82.4 west, or 40 miles south of Havana, Cuba. Ike is traveling west-northwest at 13 mph with winds of 80 mph. Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a central pressure of 965 mb, or 28.50 inches.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.

Ike weakened to Category 1 status on Monday afternoon after making landfall in Cuba on Sunday evening as a Category 3 hurricane, but this weakening trend stopped when the center moved into the Caribbean Sea on Monday evening. Given this development, Ike is expected to maintain its current intensity and perhaps even gain a little strength as it moves along the southern coast of Cuba this morning. Ike is forecast to cross western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon into tonight and some slight weakening is possible once over land. The terrain of western Cuba is relatively flat when compared to the areas that Ike has already impacted and as such, the storm is expected to steadily intensify once in the gulf. Ike will continue to bring strong winds and very heavy rainfall to central and western Cuba for the remainder of the morning. Rainfall amounts will average 6 to 12 inches with local amounts to 20 inches. This will cause the potential for life-threatening floods and mudslides. Farther north, tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the Florida Keys, especially the lower Keys, with squally showers and thunderstorms. In fact, Key West recently reported gusts to 54 mph and Sand Key, which is just southwest of Key West, reported sustained winds of 50 mph with gusts to 67 mph.

Again, re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico is likely as Ike moves over very warm waters with favorable upper-level conditions as well. Ike very well could become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico as early as Wednesday. It should be noted that some computer guidance strengthens Ike more rapidly than the AccuWeather forecast. It is still too early to tell exactly where Ike may be headed for in the gulf region, but it appears that Ike is more likely a threat to Texas as opposed to Louisiana. That said, there is still enough uncertainty that all interests in the central and western Gulf Coast states need to keep up with the latest information on the progress of this storm. Much of the gulf region will be experiencing rough surf, dangerous rip currents and the potential for coastal flooding even well away from the storm's track.

Elsewhere, tropical development is not anticipated.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins

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starman1





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PostWed Sep 10, 2008 2:26 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane “Ike” is gradually moving away from Cuba after days of battering the country. Portions of the storm are still extending its punishment over the northern provinces, as it begins to pull away into the open Gulf waters where it is expected to re-intensify into what many expect to become a major hurricane again, some suggest it may potentially reach CAT 4 status once again. The experts claim that it is rare for a storm to regain such initial strength after making landfall, but it is quite possible. And they are making a prediction in the following report that “there is some chance for Ike to become a Category 4 hurricane; however, environmental conditions may become a little more unfavorable by Friday.” We can only hope and pray that that is the case for those who reside on the western Gulf Coast. It still appears that the state of Texas is the prime target on the experts track maps and forecast, but no one is positive at this point that that will be the case, and everyone in the Gulf region should be keeping their eyes wide open as “Ike” heads inland, remembering that this storm as well, is a reported KILLER that has taken many lives as it ripped through the Caribbean.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Ike Strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico
As of 7:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Hurricane Ike was located near 23.9 north, 85.3 west. This is about 125 miles north of the western tip of Cuba, or 434 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Ike is traveling northwest at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The central pressure as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft has dropped to 959 mb, or 28.32 inches. Hurricane-force winds extend 35 miles outward from Ike's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. Ike is continuing to lash the western coast of Cuba.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Ike will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to western Cuba this morning. Rainfall totals will average 2 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches. This is in addition to the heavy rain that has already fallen and will continue the potential for life-threatening floods and mudslides. Farther north, tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the Florida Keys, especially the lower Keys, with squally showers and thunderstorms. Outer bands from Ike will continue to bring thunderstorms across southwestern Florida this morning. As Ike moves farther west, conditions should start to improve over the Keys and southwestern Florida later today into Thursday.

Ike is still being steered by a strong upper-level high that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South of the United States. This ridge should remain in place through Friday and keep Ike on a west to west-northwest course. Ike has begun to reintensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will be favorable for intensification over the next couple of days as water temperatures along Ike's projected track are at least 82 degrees and wind shear remains weak. Ike is expected to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane later today or tonight. We believe that, given the favorable conditions, Ike should be a major hurricane of at least Category 3 status later on Thursday or Thursday night.

Our forecast is for Ike to remain a major hurricane when making landfall along the Texas coast late on Friday night or Saturday morning. There is some chance for Ike to become a Category 4 hurricane; however, environmental conditions may become a little more unfavorable by Friday. Recent computer guidance has shown a great deal of variation and the exact landfall location remains very uncertain. The best estimate right now is for landfall somewhere between Brownsville, Texas, and Freeport, Texas. It should be noted that this is subject to change should conditions change. One should not focus on an exact landfall location at this time and all interests along the western Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Ike closely.

The remnants of Josephine were located near 53 west between 15 north and 22 north. This area of mostly broken clouds and showers is moving to the west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Some computer guidance suggests that this disorganized weather could become better organized by the end of the week and could bring the Bahamas squally rainfall and gusty winds. Most guidance does not show redevelopment at this point.

Elsewhere, there are no signs of tropical organization any time soon.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins.



In the East Pacific “Lowell” isn’t currently a major threat…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Tropical Depression Lowell Heading Toward Baja
As of 5 a.m. PDT, Tropical Depression Lowell was centered near 22.0 north and 112.3 west, or about 160 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The estimated central pressure is 1005 mb, or 29.68 inches. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph with higher gusts.

Tropical Depression Lowell is moving to the north-northeast at 7 mph. Lowell is expected to increase its forward speed as it approaches Baja California today. Lowell should make landfall along the west coast of southern Baja California tonight.

Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific Basin, there are no other features of interest that have the potential to develop at this time.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

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starman1





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PostThu Sep 11, 2008 11:54 pm  Reply with quote  

(Edit, this report was prepared this morning but this site was un accessible.)


September 11, 2008. Seven years after the horror that was 9/11/2001.……
Remembering with love and respect the lives lost, and given, on that tragic day.
We pray the Living God rest the innocent souls of those who were killed, and comfort the Hearts of those whom remain here in the World, by Your Promise LORD, make it so, and Thank You God…



“Ike” is becoming a huge storm. It currently covers the entire Eastside of the Gulf of Mexico, with its bands stretching from Southern Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. It is gaining in intensity as well, and at this point is nearing CAT 3 status (again). The entire Gulf Coast, from Florida to the Texas shores are experiencing reported surges already upwards of three feet. Experts report the exact targeted landing or point of impact is still to early to discern, but most tend to agree it is still somewhere along the Texas coastline, and residence in those areas have begun to evacuate already, not wanting to wait and face the troubles witnessed with exiting for “Rita”…
Texas officials claim they “need to get this evacuation right”. In an earlier post I made a humorous remark about “Houston maybe having a problem”, now that remark maybe right on the mark, as the track map shows the storm impact point being very near to the Houston area, and with the size this storm is becoming anywhere near its landing is going to receive some trouble.
Currently there is no visible “eye” in this storm, but the center of circulation carrying the CAT 2 hurricane wind speeds in excess of 100 mph is massive at over a reported 115 miles… So then, if this storm maintains its size, strength and structure, or intensifies as predicted, the area affected when it does make landfall could be very large and the damaged caused widespread as it sweeps the coastline moving inland… HEADS UP!!!
So far, it appears “Ike” is not going to dissipate before slamming into what appears to be Texas, but one never knows exactly what one of these storms is going to do until it does it. Anyone down in the Western Gulf should be paying extreme attention to IKE!!!!!!




http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Dangerous Ike Continues Toward Texas Coast
As of 7:00 a.m. CDT Thursday, Hurricane Ike was located near 25.3 north and 88.0 west. This is about 575 miles east of Brownsville, Texas and 270 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River. Ike is traveling west-northwestward at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Ike is a very large Category 2 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 115 miles outward from Ike's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles. The central pressure as reported by hurricane hunter aircraft was 946 mb, or 27.94 inches.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border westward to Cameron, La.

A hurricane watch remains in effect from Cameron westward to Port Mansfield, Texas.

The circulation of Ike is so large that it is already causing water levels to rise 1-3 feet across the entire Gulf Coast from South Florida to Texas. Parts of southern Louisiana will have a 3- to 5-foot water rise with tropical-storm conditions Thursday. From 2-4 inches of rain is expected along the immediate coastline of Louisiana today, along with isolated weak tornadoes right along the coast.

Ike is still being steered by a strong upper-level high that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. This ridge should remain in place through Friday and keep Ike on a west to west-northwesterly course through today. Conditions will be favorable for intensification over the next 24-36 hours as water temperatures along Ike's projected track are at least 82 degrees and wind shear remains relatively weak. Ike is a large hurricane with a small central core, and strong winds extend far away from the eye. Ike's surface remains very low for a Category 2 hurricane. This is due to the fact Ike is a very large storm with energy spread out over a huge distance. However, even more energy will be focused near the center today. Once this happens, Ike should increase to Category 3 strength, perhaps as early as this afternoon.

Our forecast is for Ike to remain a major hurricane when making landfall along the Texas coast during the early morning hours Saturday. There is some chance for Ike to become a Category 4 hurricane; however, environmental conditions may become a little more unfavorable by Friday. The recent slower speed of Ike means there is a better chance for it to take a track farther north, bringing the center closer to Galveston. The best estimate right now is for landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston, Texas. Nonetheless, a devastating storm surge is expected for more than 100 miles east of landfall. One should not focus on an exact landfall location at this time, and all interests along the western Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Ike closely.

The remnants of Josephine were located near 60 west, between 13 north and 22 north. They are causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. Some computer guidance suggests that this disorganized weather could become better organized by the end of the week and could produce squally rainfall and gusty winds in the Bahamas. Most guidance does not show redevelopment at this point.

Elsewhere, there are no signs of tropical organization any time soon.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel

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starman1





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PostFri Sep 12, 2008 12:08 am  Reply with quote  

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starman1





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PostFri Sep 12, 2008 2:29 pm  Reply with quote  

Looks like “Ike” is about to “mess with Texas”… Pardon the satire, but it is the truth…
The “ U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in Washington. "This is not a storm to gamble with."
Hurricane “Ike’s” track has been adjusted slightly and is now square on the Galveston, Houston area. Residence in the Galveston area appear to be getting out, but Houstonians, according to reports are apparently going to stay put and try to weather the storm.
Experts are warning that a potential “surge tsunami” may be headed their way, with warnings of waves that may reach an incredible 50 feet in height in some cases, IN-FREAKING-SANE … Not to mention potential CAT 3 winds spanning out over 100 miles in diameter, heavy rains, and thunderheads that may even spawn tornadoes, DAMN!!! This is a storm who’s name will not soon be forgotten… Texas Governor Rick Perry says to the holdouts, "I cannot overemphasize the danger that is facing us. It's going to do some substantial damage. It's going to knock out power. It's going to cause massive flooding."
I’m thinking if you can, maybe you should, GET OUT of this ones way…
In preparation of the potential devastation and loss of life, we pray for God’s Protection of the innocent who may be in harms way… And mercy on the belligerent, not that I believe this storm is an act of God waging war, just that anyone who wants to stand against a storm of this magnitude is being belligerent, and may be in need of Devine Intervention.




http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482

quote:

Texans warned Ike could bring 'certain death'
Residents urged to flee coastal Galveston area, but Houstonians staying put…

MSNBC News Services
updated 3 minutes ago
GALVESTON, Texas - Hundreds of thousands of people fled coastal areas in the path of Hurricane Ike on Friday as the storm gathered strength on a collision course with the Texas Gulf Coast, threatening to swamp populous areas around Houston under a massive wave of water.
Ike was a Category 2 storm with 105-mph winds and likely will come ashore late on Friday or early on Saturday as a potentially dangerous Category 3 storm on the five-step intensity scale with winds of more than 111 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
The storm menaced Houston, the fourth-most populous U.S. city and hub of the oil industry. Many remembered the chaotic highway evacuation of 2 million residents during Hurricane Rita in 2005, which ended up sparing the city.
Houstonians urged to 'shelter in place'
Although the city could see hurricane-force winds, officials called for most residents to "shelter in place." "They are in a safer, better position if they stay where they are," Houston Mayor Bill White said.
Most metropolitan residents appeared to be heeding orders and staying put. Edgar Ortiz, a 55-year-old maintenance worker from east Houston, said leaders were providing wise advice, considering what happened during Rita, but said people were inclined to make up their own minds.
"I guess people tend to want to stay where they're at," he said as he shopped for bottled water, toilet paper and canned goods. "A lot of people don't want to leave. I don't want to leave. You may be taking a risk, but that's just how it is."
'Certain death'
Ike is so big, it could inflict a punishing blow even in those areas that do not get a direct hit. Forecasters warned because of Ike's size and the shallow Texas coastal waters, it could produce a surge, or wall of water, 20 feet high, and waves of perhaps 50 feet. It could also dump 10 inches or more of rain.
The National Weather Service warned in a bulletin early Friday of deadly flooding in some Gulf coastal communities during the period of peak storm tide.
"Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes may face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed," it said.
At 5 a.m. EDT Friday, the storm was centered about 265 miles southeast of Galveston, moving to the west-northwest near 13 mph. Ike was a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds that had increased slightly to near 105 mph.
The storm arrives just 10 days after Hurricane Gustav forced 2 million people to flee the Louisiana coast and threatened a New Orleans still reeling from Katrina's devastation.
"The most important message I can send is, do not take this storm lightly," U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said in Washington. "This is not a storm to gamble with."
With the storm's track taking it away from the bulk of 4,000 offshore platforms that produce about a quarter of U.S. oil supply, U.S. crude oil futures dipped as low as $100.10 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest level since early April.
Fleeing the coast
Residents of Galveston — an island city of 280,000 about 50 miles south of Houston — were ordered to evacuate, along with other low-lying counties. Some 600,000 people had left, the state said.
"We're getting up out of here," said Nykera Allen, a student who was loading up her car to drive to San Antonio in central Texas. "They're going to shut the lights and the water off and that's not a good situation."
The hurricane's current track would see it hit the Texas coast near Freeport in Brazoria County, just south of Galveston. It could be the worst storm to hit the Texas coast since Hurricane Carla came ashore near Corpus Christi in 1961.
The coastal areas under threat from Ike are lined with oil refineries that process about 25 percent of the nation's fuel. Some stretches boast resorts and million-dollar beachfront homes.
'A surge tsunami'
New Orleans, where Katrina's storm surge flattened levees and flooded 80 percent of the city, appeared to be out of Ike's path, but is still under a tropical storm warning.
President Bush declared an emergency exists in Louisiana due to the storm, ordering federal aid to help disaster relief in the state, the White House said.
While New Orleans is below sea level, downtown Houston is about 50 feet above, but the city's flat, expansive terrain still leaves it vulnerable to flooding.
One Texas official likened the potential wall of water to a tidal wave, not just a storm surge.
"This is a surge tsunami," said Jack Colley, of the state emergency management team. "This is not rising water."
In Galveston — site of a 1900 hurricane that was the deadliest weather disaster in U.S. history — lines of cars, buses and trucks crowded onto a bridge to leave the island. Others without transportation waited for buses to carry them to shelters.
Holdouts
As always, hold-outs hunkered down to weather the storm.
"I'm just going to batten down and not worry about it," said Keith Andrews, a shipyard worker. "If the Lord wants you, he's going to take you anyway."
The first rain and wind was set to arrive later Friday. Houston residents were scurrying to get ready, and hardware stores put limits on the number of gas containers that could be sold. Batteries, drinking water and other storm supplies were running low, and grocery stores were getting set to close. Houston was slowly shutting down, and people beginning to head inside. The only thing to do was wait and see what Ike had in store.
"It's a big storm," Texas Gov. Rick Perry said. "I cannot overemphasize the danger that is facing us. It's going to do some substantial damage. It's going to knock out power. It's going to cause massive flooding."





quote:

Ike Slowly Gaining Strength
As of 8:00 a.m. CDT Friday, Hurricane Ike was located near 26.9 north and 92.2 west. This is about 230 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas. Ike is traveling west-northwestward at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph as a very large Category 2 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 120 miles outward from Ike's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 215 miles. The central pressure is now at 956 mb, or 28.23 inches.

A hurricane warning is in effect from Morgan City, La. to Baffin Bay, Texas.

A tropical storm warning is in effect in Texas from Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Morgan City, La. to the Mississippi/Alabama border and includes the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

The circulation of Ike is causing water levels to rise 1-3 feet across the entire Gulf Coast from South Florida to Texas. Parts of southern Louisiana will have a 3- to 5-foot water rise with tropical storm conditions through today. Seas in the central Gulf of Mexico are around 20 to 30 feet, while seas in the western Gulf are 10-15 feet.

Ike is still being steered by a strong upper-level high that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. This ridge should remain in place today and keep Ike on a west-northwesterly course through tonight. Conditions will be somewhat favorable for intensification over the next 12-18 hours as water temperatures along Ike's projected track are at least 82 degrees and wind shear remains relatively weak. Ike is a large hurricane with a small central core, and strong winds extend far from the eye. Ike's pressure remains very low for a Category 2 hurricane. This is due to the fact that Ike is a very large storm with energy spread out over a huge distance. If these winds can contract, Ike may increase to Category 3 strength today. The latest results from the intensity forecast models on Ike do not have Ike reaching Category 3 strength before landfall. Since intensity forecasting is very difficult, we will continue to monitor the pressure and wind within this massive hurricane. Because Ike is such a large storm, tropical storm and hurricane conditions will reach far away from the actual center upon landfall. This will be especially true north and east of where the center comes ashore.

The best estimate right now is for landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston, Texas. Nonetheless, a devastating storm surge is expected for more than 100 miles east of landfall. East of the landfall, a storm surge from 12 to 20 feet can strike with some of the back bays perhaps having a higher surge. One should not focus on an exact landfall location at this time, and all interests along the western Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Ike closely.

After landfall, Ike will begin to move more north, then northeast, as it gets caught up in the westerlies. A rather rapid increase in forward speed is likely. By Sunday morning, the remnant tropical rainstorm center should be over northwestern Arkansas, moving quickly northeastward through the middle Mississippi Valley during the day Sunday.

The remnants of Josephine were located just northeast of Puerto Rico this morning. They are causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. Some computer guidance suggests that this disorganized weather could become better organized by the end of the week and could produce squally rainfall and gusty winds in the Bahamas. Most guidance does not show redevelopment at this point.

Elsewhere, there are no signs of tropical organization any time soon.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Ken Clark

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starman1





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PostSat Sep 13, 2008 2:29 pm  Reply with quote  

“Ike” targets Texas and lands direct hit in Galveston/Houston area , check out the track map of where it made landfall.


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Ike Near Galveston
As of 4:00 a.m. CDT Saturday, Hurricane Ike was located near 29.7 north and 95.0 west. Ike made landfall near Galveston at 2:10 a.m. CDT. Ike is traveling northwestward at 13 mph with maximum-sustained winds of 110 mph as a very large Category 2 hurricane. Ike has maintained intensity over the past several hours. Hurricane-force winds extend 125 miles outward from Ike's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. The central pressure is holding at 954 mb, or 28.17 inches.

A hurricane warning is in effect from Morgan City, La., to Port O' Connor, Texas.

The previous lull in storm surge was due to a low astronomical tide last evening. Astronomical tide levels are scheduled to rise through the early morning hours today with high astronomical tide shortly prior to dawn. Additionally, storm surge water levels will continue to rise markedly along the central and northern Texas coast into early this morning. East of the landfall, a storm surge from 15 to 25 feet will occur over and to the right of where Ike makes landfall. Water levels could rise several feet in a matter of minutes as the eye rolls onshore during the next several hours.

Ike is a very strong Category 2 hurricane and close to being a Category 3. Despite this, the hurricane is very large and the wind field extends outward to near 300 miles. Conditions will markedly deteriorate along the north and central Texas coast and farther inland as Ike comes onshore.

A devastating storm surge is expected for more than 100 miles northeast of landfall. The worst of the hurricane conditions will affect the Galveston and Houston areas through noon today.

Conditions will remain favorable for tornadoes to form in Texas, near and north of landfall throughout the day.

Rainfall from Ike will average 6 to 12 inches from extreme southwestern Louisiana to the north-central coast of Texas and will extend inland several hundred miles. In this area, local amounts of 15 inches are possible. Rainfall of this nature could lead to major flooding. While lesser rainfall will occur farther to the north and eventually the northeast, due to the accelerating motion of Ike, at least isolated areas of flooding can occur as far inland as parts of the southern Plains and the middle Mississippi Valley.

After landfall, Ike will begin to move more north, then northeast, as it gets caught up in the westerlies. A rather rapid increase in forward speed is likely. By Sunday morning, the remnant tropical rainstorm center should be over southern Missouri, moving quickly northeastward through the middle Mississippi Valley during the day Sunday.

The remnants of Josephine were located just northeast of Puerto Rico. They are causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. Some computer guidance suggests that this disorganized weather could become better organized over the weekend. Squally rainfall and locally gusty winds may affect the Bahamas on Saturday and Sunday. Most guidance does not show redevelopment at this point.

Elsewhere, there are no signs of tropical organization any time soon.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski and Meteorologist Eric Reese.

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starman1





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PostWed Sep 17, 2008 2:28 pm  Reply with quote  

After being hit by two “KILLER” storms, relatively back to back, Gulf Coast residence are being given a breather. It appears there will be a break in the weather for a bit, that is if things stay as they are for the predicted near future out in the Atlantic.
Time for everyone to catch their breath, assess the damage, and get ready for whatever may be next in the two and a half months that are left to this year’s official Hurricane Season…
A heartfelt prayer goes out for all who may be suffering from the effects of these recent storm catastrophes.
Maintaining the watch in the quite calm for now…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:
Tropical Atlantic is Quiet for the Time Being
Satellite images across the Atlantic Tropical Basin continue to show no organized features overnight Tuesday. The winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere which can rip apart, developing tropical systems are flowing strongly from west to east. This strong wind flow is farther south than normal and is observed from the Gulf of Mexico across the entire Atlantic Basin to just north of the Cape Verde Islands. These winds are too strong and too far south to support much in the way of tropical development for at least the next few days. Computer guidance suggests this southward dip in the westerlies will gradually change over the weekend into next week and this could open the door for tropical development.

The frontal boundary along the southeast coast of the United States and into the Gulf of Mexico could be an area to watch by early next week. However, the westerly flow aloft over this front is too strong to support any tropical development for the next few days, much like in the other areas of the Atlantic.

Tropical waves are located along 18 west, 37 west, 62 west, along 79 west and along 90 west. These tropical waves are not expected to develop over the next few days, although the waves over the Caribbean Sea (37 west and 62 west), could bring showers to many locations. The wave which recently emerged off the coast of Africa will need to be monitored down the road for possible development if the wind shear decreases as expected next week.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins.
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