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2008 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Sep 21, 2008 2:59 pm  Reply with quote  

Currently there is a wave in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, apparently showing signs of development despite adverse conditions. It is not yet an officially named storm, but it does have the experts attention and therefore warrants watching…
It has already become quite large, although it yet lacks organization to qualify as an officially named storm. Here are some images of what it looks like at this point in time.

Here is what it looks like presently on the global scale…


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Keeping an Eye on the Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure over the northeastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large mass of showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea. The area of low pressure is associated with a tropical wave centered along 67 west and south of 19 north and is currently undergoing a good deal of southwesterly shear due to an upper-level trough in place across the central Caribbean. This has resulted in a majority of the convection being removed from the wave itself. Despite this fact, the wave is showing signs of slowly becoming better organized. As the upper-level trough along with the shear weakens, some slow development is possible with this system over the next couple of days.

Another area of concern for the next couple of days is along the Southeast coast of the United States. A stationary frontal boundary is currently positioned just off the coast over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. A weak area of low pressure currently exists along this front off the Carolina coastline, but very little in the way of shower or thunderstorm activity exists with this low. Wind shear across this area will remain high the next couple of days limiting the possibility for immediate development. However, this area will need to be monitored later next week for possible development as winds aloft begin to weaken and the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, another broad area of low pressure over Nicaragua continues to produce a good deal of thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean Sea and Nicaragua. Winds aloft over this system are also unfavorable for development and further organization of this wave is not expected.

A few other tropical waves are located across the Atlantic Ocean at 22 west, south of 10 north, 38 west, south of 18 north, 56 west, south of 20 north and 81 west, south of 19 north. These waves are generally moving to the west at 10-15 mph, but conditions are not favorable for development at this time.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Josh Newhard

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Sep 26, 2008 1:13 am  Reply with quote  

The eleventh named storm of this years Atlantic hurricane season has officially formed in the waters east of the Bahamas, Tropical Storm “Kyle” appears at this point in time to be no real direct threat to the East Coast of the USA. It is apparently tracking to the north and currently predicted to impact Nova Scotia above Maine, late Sunday possibly as a hurricane… We will be keeping our eye’s open for any unexpected changes that may develop with this storm, and monitoring closely the rest of the region, as these things have been traveling in packs lately…

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Kyle Develops east of the Bahamas, Other storm remains non tropical
The 11th named storm in the Tropical Atlantic Basin developed just northeast of Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday afternoon. As of 5 PM Eastern Daylight Time Kyle was near 23.5 north, 68.3 west or 645 miles south southwest of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph. The minimum central pressure as reported by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1001 millibars or 29.56 inches. Kyle is moving north at 8 mph and should continue moving north with some increase in forward speed expected later Friday and Friday night. Kyle will continue to intensify and should become a strong tropical storm Friday night and should become a hurricane on Saturday. The steering flow that Kyle is in should guide the storm about 400 miles west of Bermuda early Saturday then the storm will pass just east of Cape Cod of the northeast United States on Sunday. Kyle is projected to make landfall as a hurricane over Nova Scotia late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening.

The low pressure area off the coast of the southeastern United States has failed to gain tropical characteristics as of late Thursday afternoon. The storm in contrast with high pressure to the north is causing tropical storm force winds of 35-45 mph from the coastal Carolinas northward to the Delmarva peninsula with gusts to near 60 mph just off shore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. These winds are causing very rough surf from the New Jersey coast southward to the northern Florida coast. Coastal flooding and dangerous and deadly rip currents will continue to affect these coastal areas. Heavy rainfall will move into the eastern Carolinas and spread westward Thursday night. This heavier rainfall will continue to expand northward into the northeast United States. The center of this non tropical storm will move inland near the South Carolina, North Carolina border around midnight early Friday morning. The storm will track west northwest into southwestern North Carolina on Thursday then gradually move more north and northeast Friday night and Saturday. Rainfall from this storm will average 2-4 inches but some isolated spots could pick up as much as 8" mostly north of the storm's track. Winds will gradually subside during Thursday as the storm winds down.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

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starman1





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Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Sep 28, 2008 1:47 pm  Reply with quote  

“Kyle” has qualified and received hurricane status, however, it appears it will not hold the title for long as it is already showing signs of disorganization as it heads north toward Maine and southwestern Nova Scotia. Surf’s up on the northeast coastline, but it will be accompanied by the heavy rains which may cause flooding, and then there is the wind factor which should remain under 80 mph. Kite surfing is not recommended for this weekend, keeping it light… Still watching………..
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Hurricane Kyle
As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Kyle was near 39.3 north, 68.4 west, or 165 miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Maximum-sustained winds remain near 80 mph with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles mainly east of the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward to about 205 miles, mainly north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure was 991 millibars, or 29.41 inches. Kyle is moving north-northeast at 24 mph and should continue moving on this general course the rest of today.
A tropical storm warning extends from Nantucket, Massachusetts north to Eastport, Maine. A hurricane watch is in effect from Stonington to Eastport, Maine. southwestern Nova Scotia.
Despite Hurricane Hunter aircraft showing Kyle strengthening slightly, satellite imagery shows Kyle's structure has become more disorganized overnight as it moved over cooler waters. As Kyle continues north-northeastward, sea-surface temperatures will become increasingly unfavorable for a tropical system. The storm will then pass east of Cape Cod, Mass., this afternoon. Strong winds gusting to near tropical storm force will affect coastal sections of eastern New England with rough surf. However, the main threat in central and eastern New England will be that of flooding from heavy rainfall due to interaction with a nearby frontal boundary.
Kyle is projected to make landfall as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane over Nova Scotia, or perhaps near the Maine border around midnight tonight. Conditions in Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick will deteriorate during the day on Sunday. As Kyle transitions from a tropical system to a nontropical system it will continue to produce heavy rain and damaging winds as it cruises through Newfoundland and Atlantic Canada waters on Monday.
Elsewhere, we continue to monitor a couple of additional areas in the Atlantic Basin. One is a system about halfway between the Leeward Islands and Africa. Another is near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The system near Yucatan may never become a powerful system, but has the potential to drop very heavy rain this coming week as it drifts to the northeast toward Florida. The system has caused flooding already in Mexico. The system in the middle of the Atlantic has potential to strengthen as it moves westward into a more favorable atmosphere next week.
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Sep 30, 2008 4:04 pm  Reply with quote  

At twelve for the season “Laura” has a name…
And probably not much else.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Though No Threat, Laura Becomes Tropical
As of 11 a.m. EDT, Laura has become a Tropical Storm. Laura is located along 41.2 N and 48.8 W, or about 435 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Laura has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving north near 13 mph. The minimum pressure is estimated at 996 mb, or 29.41 inches. A gradual weakening is expected through the next few days. Laura is not a threat to land areas for at least the next couple of days.
An area of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico will cross central and South Florida today. This is associated with a weak low-level trough and an upper-level disturbance. While this area will not develop into any tropical cyclone, it will produce locally very heavy rain with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts in excess of 6 inches. This is in addition to the rainfall from Monday and Monday night.
Elsewhere, we continue to monitor a couple of additional areas in the Atlantic Basin. One is a tropical wave about halfway between the Leeward Islands and Africa, near 44 west. Other waves are at 58 west and 30 west and none of these show any sign of organization.
By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologists Brian Wimer and Ken Clark

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starman1





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Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Oct 03, 2008 1:51 pm  Reply with quote  

The Atlantic region is currently quiet, as reported by the experts.

Out in the East Pacific, at 13 for this years named events on this side of the country, its “Marie” which is currently a Tropical Storm with no immediate threats to any areas of land…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Marie No Threat to Land
As of 2:00 a.m. PDT Friday, Tropical Storm Marie was located 855 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, or near 17.8 north and 121.9 west. Marie is moving westward at 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly, estimated to be near 60 mph. Marie can still intensify slightly as it moves through an area of moderately warm ocean water and relatively low wind shear, but eventually Marie should move over colder water, compromising the convective development necessary for the storm to intensify. It will continue on a westerly course through the weekend, keeping the storm away from land.
We continue to monitor an area of low pressure south of Acapulco, Mexico. This low pressure area is located near 14 north and 100 west, or about 200 miles south of Acapulco. The system is moving westward at about 6 mph. Upper-level winds continue to create just enough shear to prevent development. However, shear should relax during the next 24 hours, and this could allow the low to become an organized tropical system. Current computer forecasts continue to show the low moving west-northwestward, then maybe turning more northwest. That could bring the system very close to southwestern Mexico early next week.
By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Brian Wimer


Here is a look at "Marie", and some of the rain I asked for a little while back for Northern California, thanks fellas... Shocked Shocked Shocked
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Oct 04, 2008 12:20 am  Reply with quote  

“Marie” has officially achieved hurricane status out in the East Pacific, but experts say it poses “no threat to land” at this time.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Marie Strengthens to a Hurricane; No Threat to Land
As of 2:00 p.m. PDT Friday, Hurricane Marie was located 875 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, or near 17.6 north and 122.2 west. It is moving westward at 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 75 mph. Minimum central pressure is 987 mb or 29.15 inches. Conditions for Marie to further intensify are somewhat favorable tonight as it moves through an area of moderately warm ocean water and relatively low wind shear. Eventually, however, Marie should move over colder water, compromising the convective development necessary for the storm to intensify significantly. Therefore, if it does reach hurricane strength today or tonight, it should start weakening Saturday. It will continue on a westerly course through the weekend, keeping the storm away from land.
We continue to monitor an area of low pressure south of Acapulco, Mexico. This low pressure area is located near 14 north and 100 west, or about 225 miles south of the city, and is nearly stationary. This low is showing signs of becoming better organized and a tropical depression may form in the next 12-24 hours. Current computer forecasts continue to show the low moving west-northwestward, then maybe turning more northwest. That could bring the system very close to southwestern Mexico early next week.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Josh Newhard

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostSun Oct 05, 2008 5:59 pm  Reply with quote  

A new named system, (at number 14) Tropical Storm “Norbert” is gaining strength in the East Pacific currently bringing clouds and rain to the Mexican coastline, as “Marie” weakens.
If the current pattern follows the past in this season, the Gulf region may well expect another round of storms soon too. The flow seems to be the same pattern to this observer, although I am not nor do not claim to be an expert in the field, I can see patterns as they present. And, because even the experts are not held to accountability when they offer their predictions, I think it is safe to say what I think with regard to future events involving the weather and these storms, as long as it is known it is just my own personal opinion based on my own personal observations with no assistance from any computer models, just what is visible from the available satellite imagery and as someone put earlier, “my gut instincts” ……..
Keeping an open eye out for the remaining two months of this year’s season.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Norbert Slowly Strengthening; Marie Continues to Weaken
As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Sunday, Tropical Storm Marie was located near 18.9 north and 122.3 west, or 845 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Marie is nearly stationary but is expected to slowly meander westward over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are around 45 mph and gradual weakening is expected. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb, or 29.56 inches. Marie will move over progressively cooler waters during the next 24 to 48 hours and as such will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression later today or Monday before dissipating Tuesday. Marie will not pose a threat to any landmasses.
Tropical Storm Norbert is located near 14.6 north and 101.9 west, or about 215 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds have strengthened to near 60 mph. Norbert will continue to strengthen gradually this afternoon and tonight and could become a hurricane as early as Monday morning. Computer guidance suggests that Norbert will be close enough to the Mexican coast as to bring clouds and rainfall as it moves to the west-northwest. This system will need to be monitored closely for any potential impacts to land over the next several days, but as of now, it would appear that Norbert will parallel the coast for the next few days, delaying any potential landfall. There is another area of interest a couple hundred miles south of El Salvador. Thunderstorm activity is mainly to the west of the center of low pressure. The system seems disorganized, but it has the potential for development as we head into next week.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Mike Pigott

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Oct 07, 2008 2:44 pm  Reply with quote  

“Norbert” out in the East Pacific has reached official hurricane strength and status cruising currently as a CAT 1 classification. Experts expect it to intensify as it moves further west into warmer Pacific waters. Current ATCF track maps have projected the storm making a direct hit on the southern end of the Baja Peninsula…
Here are the images…..



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Norbert Now a Hurricane
As of 2:00 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Hurricane Norbert was located near 15.1 north and 106.4 west, or about 585 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 8 mph. Maximum-sustained winds remain at 75 mph with higher gusts. Norbert will continue to strengthen gradually as it moves over warm waters while under an area of low shear.
Tropical Depression Marie has dissipated and no longer poses any threat as it moves well away from the Mexican coastline.
There is another area of interest about 100 miles south-southwest of the El Salvador coast. Thunderstorm activity is located mainly to the west of the center of low pressure. The system is disorganized due to strong wind shear in the area, but it has the potential for development, as wind shear is forecast to decrease as this system drifts westward over the next few days.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak



On the Atlantic side, down in the Gulf of Mexico in the southwestern Bay of Campeche at number 13 resides Tropical Storm “Marco” which experts are calling a remarkably small storm. Never the less, still a storm and a potential threat to life that may be in its path, nearing hurricane force winds, it is expected to make landfall this afternoon. Heads up down south, looks like both sides of the country may take hits relatively close to each other again this year…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Tropical Storm Marco To Make Landfall This Afternoon
Tropical Storm Marco continues to spin in the southwestern Bay of Campeche. As of 7:00 a.m. CDT Marco was located near 20.2 north, 96.5 west or 80 miles southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. Marco was moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph with average winds of 65 mph and gusts to 75 mph. Minimum central pressure of the storm is 998 mb or 29.47 inches.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect from Cabo Rojo southward to Veracruz. from the center, making this a remarkably small tropical system.
Marco will move west-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours. This will keep the storm over very warm water and low shear. This should support further strengthening and Marco could become a minimal hurricane before making landfall around midday on Tuesday. The system will produce heavy rainfall, up to 6 inches along the Mexico coast with the main threat being flash flooding and mudslides.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, tropical waves are located along 38 west, south of 15 north, along 65 west, south of 18 north and along 75 west, south of 19 north. These waves are moving west at 5-6 degrees longitude per day. The tropical wave along 36 west has an arcing area of showers and thunderstorms west of the Cape Verde Islands. This disorganized area of thunderstorms will move westward and could become better organized in a few days. We are also monitoring an upper-level low pressure area near 23 north, 65 west. This system appears to have too much shear north of it for possible development.
By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark and Meteorologist Mike Pigott

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Oct 08, 2008 2:39 pm  Reply with quote  

“Norbert” has become a very dangerous storm and is potentially going to get worse as it progresses today. It is already spinning at a CAT 3, by classification a major hurricane, and experts suggest it may well worsen before slamming into Baja possibly Saturday, but they also claim a few computer models suggest the storm will stay on a westerly course keeping it out at sea. Most seem to be stacking odds on the hit on Baja model vs. storm moves out to sea scenario. The Navy’s ATCF track map still points to a direct hit on southern Baja, so for now, I think the safe bet is if your in that area get to safe ground soon. I don’t think riding out a CAT 3 or larger would be a wise choice considering the damage witnessed by the storms hitting the Gulf Coast regions in recent days…
Here is the current visible image of this beast……

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Hurricane Norbert Strengthens to Category 3
As of 2:00 a.m. PDT Wednesday, Hurricane Norbert was located near 16.1 north and 110.0 west, or about 470 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite imagery is impressive and shows that Norbert continues to strengthen and an eye has formed at Norbert's center. Maximum sustained winds have strengthened to 115 mph with higher gusts and the central pressure has dropped to 960 mb or 28.35 inches of mercury, making it a category 3 hurricane, a major hurricane. Forecast models suggest that Norbert will continue to strengthen over the next 24 hours as it moves over very warm waters and remains in a low wind shear environment. The models also suggest that Norbert's track will re-curve to the northeast as a strong trough moves over the west coast of the US. Satellite images show it curving more northerly as of 2:00 AM PDT. This will help to steer the storm over the Baja Peninsula on Saturday at hurricane strength. A few models also show a different solution with Norbert continuing on a westward track and not making any impact to land, but this is less likely.
There is another area of interest about 120 miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua. This area of low pressure remains disorganized due to strong wind shear, but it has potential for development, as wind shear is forecast to decrease as this system drifts west-northwestward over the next few days.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Mark Paquette



“Marco” is dissipating…
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Marco Dissipating In Mexico
Marco dissipated over land in eastern Mexico last night. The main threat from Marco's remains are heavy rainfall near this small area of low pressure in east-central Mexico. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, tropical waves are located along 27 west, along 53 west, along 71 west and along 82 west. degrees longitude per day and pose no chance for development for at least the next few days. An upper level low in the southwest Atlantic near 22 north,60 west is moving eastward and remains in a strongly sheared environment, not favorable for development. By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait

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starman1





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PostThu Oct 09, 2008 2:35 pm  Reply with quote  

“Norbert” is still packing a major punch maintaining a CAT 3 classification, and according to experts is still on track for a direct hit on the Baja Peninsula north of La Paz. They predict it may lose some of its intensity Friday, but that it will still be of hurricane strength as it impacts Baja on Saturday.
Here is this morning’s latest visible satellite imagery…..


Still further to the south of “Norbert” a new system has been given a name along the southwestern Mexican coastline, coming in at #15 for the season its “Odile” which is presently still just a “Tropical Storm“, not to diminish the dangerous nature of this thing because it is still a threat, but not quite as powerful as a “ 'Cane ”…



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Norbert Remains a Major 'Cane; Odile Forms Southwest of Guatemala.
As of 2:00 a.m. PDT Thursday, Hurricane Norbert was located near 17.5 north and 112.5 west, or about 410 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm is moving northwest at about 7 mph. Satellite imagery remains fairly impressive and shows that Norbert remains a major hurricane even though it has weakened a bit overnight. The central pressure is estimated at 954 mb, or 28.16 inches of mercury. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts, making it an extremely dangerous Category 3 hurricane. Computer guidance suggest that Norbert will maintain its strength with slight fluctuations during the next 12-24 hours as it moves over very warm waters and remains in a low wind shear environment. Friday, weakening is forecast as the system enters a less favorable environment. Norbert's track will recurve to the north, and then the northeast, as a strong trough moves over the West Coast of the U.S. during the next couple of days. This will help to steer the storm over the Baja Peninsula Saturday at hurricane strength.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 145 miles.
The tropical depression (16E) that formed earlier Wednesday became Tropical Storm Odile at 2 am PDT. Odile is located near 12.7 north and 93.0 west. The system is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts to 50 mph. The storm has potential to become a hurricane over the next few days as wind shear is forecast to decrease as this system continues west-northwestward.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins

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starman1





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PostFri Oct 10, 2008 2:04 pm  Reply with quote  

It now appears that “Norbert” will be slowing down before impacting Baja, it is currently maintaining a CAT 1 status and the experts are predicting it may only be a Tropical Storm when it arrives on Saturday, they do not expect re-intensification with this system. This does not totally diminish the storm to a non-event, but it does lesson the potential destructive force somewhat. However, winds and especially rains associated with Tropical Storms can still present deadly conditions. We will continue to watch as things progress.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Hurricane Norbert Shifting North; Odile Holding Steady
As of 5 a.m. PDT Friday, Hurricane Norbert was located near 20.1 north and 113.4 west, or about 290 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm is moving north-northwest at about 9 mph. The central pressure is estimated at 975 mb, or 28.79 inches of mercury. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
Re-strengthening of this storm is unlikely, as Norbert will pick up forward speed through the next 24 hours and move over cooler waters. The track will curve to the northeast as a strong trough moves over the western U.S. coast during the next couple of days. This will help to steer the storm over the Baja Peninsula Saturday, possibly as a tropical storm.
As of 5 a.m. PDT, Tropical Storm Odile was located near 14.3 north and 96.9 west, or approximately 255 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are holding near 60 mph with higher gusts. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb, or 29.44 inches. Odile was moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. As the storm moves to the west-northwest over the next few days, Odile could strengthen into a hurricane as wind shear relaxes. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkin, Carrie McCabe

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostSat Oct 11, 2008 2:36 pm  Reply with quote  

Today, “Norbert is a major Category 2” impacting Baja California, damn what a job. These guys claimed yesterday that “Re-strengthening of this storm is unlikely” and that “This will help to steer the storm over the Baja Peninsula Saturday, possibly as a tropical storm.” WTF? (Weathermen That Fail)…
The Hurricane that is “Norbert” has re-intensified and is skirting along the Baja Peninsula as a “major CAT 2”, with wind speeds of over 110 mph, promising to drop tons of rain there and into areas of Mexico and the southwest US where water reservoirs are already “near- or above-record levels” adding to and prolonging existing flooded areas near the Rio Grande River and areas of Texas. I sure hope those who are riding this thing out today were adequately warned and prepared for what was coming their way, here is the latest image and report…..



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Norbert Now a Category 2 Hurricane and Odile Straddles Coast
As of 5 a.m. PDT on Saturday, Hurricane Norbert was located near 23.6 north and 112.3 west, or about 80 miles south of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico. The storm is moving north-northeast at about 15 mph. The central pressure is estimated at 964 mb, or 28.47 inches of mercury. Maximum-sustained winds have lessened to 110 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
Norbert is a major Category 2 hurricane. The track will remain northeasterly and the storm will accelerate with the help of a deep trough moving through the western United States. Rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are forecast on Baja California, with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible. This rain could produce flash flooding and mudslides. A 2- to 5-foot storm surge is expected to batter the western coast of Baja California. Norbert is expected to cross into the Gulf of California and will make a second landfall as a strong Category 1 or weak Category 2 storm along Mexico's western coast on Saturday night. Moisture from Norbert is already streaming into the southern United States and could become a big rainmaker into Sunday. Flooding caused by heavy rainfall a few weeks ago and during the latter part of the summer continues along and near the Rio Grande River between El Paso and the Big Bend of Texas. Some reservoirs are near- or above-record levels. Additional rainfall caused by the moisture from Norbert will help enhance and prolong this flooding.
As of 5 a.m. PDT on Saturday, Tropical Storm Odile was located near 16.8 north and 101.1 west, or approximately 90 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb, or 29.41 inches. Odile was moving to the northwest at 14 mph. While continuing west-northwestward over the next few days, Odile could strengthen into a hurricane as wind shear relaxes. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Carrie McCabe and Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

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starman1





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PostMon Oct 13, 2008 1:21 pm  Reply with quote  

Taking a day off from the watch and nearly missed “Nana”, at number 14 out in the Atlantic.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Nana Getting Shear, More Possible Development
As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, Nana was located near 16.6 north and 39.3 west or about 1,015 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest at about 7 mph, with this motion expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum-sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts, while the estimated central pressure is 1005 mb or 29.68 inches.
Strong, westerly shear across Nana has completely exposed the center of circulation and this shear is expected to weaken the storm over the next 24 hours, with Nana likely becoming a remnant low within the next day or two.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is located in the eastern Caribbean along 69 west is causing numerous showers and locally heavy thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles northward into Puerto Rico. Lessening wind shear will allow this wave to become better organized on Monday. It may develop into a tropical depression within the next 12-24 hours. Wind shear could pick back up in the path of this feature on Tuesday and Wednesday across the northern Caribbean, so there may only be a small window of opportunity for strengthening. Regardless of whether this feature becomes a depression or even a tropical storm, it will bring flooding rain to the northern Caribbean including Puerto Rico and perhaps Hispaniola over the next several days as it treks slowly to the northwest.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Reese


The East Pacific is quite quiet now, remnants of “Odile” are moving out to sea, and “Norbert” has all but disappeared , what a difference a day makes…

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:

Odile Weakens to Remnant Low
Odile has weakened to a remnant low in the Pacific. It is expected to move northwest, then west over the next few days with no impact on land.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, the remnant of Marie continues to create convection in the open waters of the Pacific. Reformation is not likely.
There are no other significant areas of concern in the Pacific.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Reese.

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
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PostWed Oct 15, 2008 12:43 am  Reply with quote  

Keeping up with the number of storms out in the East Pacific, the Atlantic has delivered it’s 15th named storm of this season which is already nearing hurricane classification, but for now is still just a Tropical Storm named “Omar”, who stirring things up in the East Caribbean Sea. It appears that this storm will be punishing , Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao over tonight and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands over the next few days, potentially building to hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. At this point in time the predicted tracks have this storm headed northeast past these Islands out into open Atlantic waters away from the Coastal United States. There is however, another as yet un-named system developing to the west of “Omar” and headed west along the coast of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, current track maps predict it will make landfall south of Belize.
We’ll keep watching to see what develops???
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Omar almost a hurricane, T.D. 16 near Honduras
Tropical Storm Omar is almost a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean. As of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday Omar was located near 14.0 north, 68.5 west, or about 345 miles south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The storm is moving to the east northeast at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph. The central pressure is now down to 982 millibars as reported by a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft. Tropical storm force winds extend outward near 90 miles mostly northeast, east and southeast of the storm's center. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the islands of Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba. St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the island of Montserrat.
Tropical Storm Omar is now making the turn to the northeast as expected and should move on a more coherent northeast course Tuesday night and Wednesday. Omar's forward speed will also increase through Wednesday. Omar has been under the influence of strong westerly shear. However, that shear has diminished more than expected and the storm is wrapping up quickly. It now appears as if this storm will become a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours.
Locally heavy rain will affect The ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao tonight. Torrential rainfall and increasing winds will affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night and Thursday. Rainfall amounts will average 6-12 inches over Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands including the British and U.S. Virgin Islands.
As of 5PM EDT Tropical Depression 16 was located near 15.7 north, 83.6 west or about 55 miles north northwest of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border. T.D. 16 has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and is moving to the west northwest at 7 mph and is expected to turn more toward the west tonight and Wednesday and should remain offshore of the northern coast of Honduras during Wednesday and Wednesday night into Thursday. T.D. 16 could bring as much as 4 to 8 inches of rainfall over northeastern Nicaragua and northern Honduras with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This much rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic associated with a tropical wave along 33 west remains very disorganized. Development of this system is not expected due to increased shear.
A large swirl of clouds near 25 north,62 west is associated with an upper level low. Tropical development is not expected from this feature. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Gulf of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. This area of active weather is not expected to develop. However, heavy rainfall is expected over south Texas and northeast Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.
Tropical waves along 55 west and along 62 west remain disorganized. The tropical wave along 62 west will become absorbed by Omar within the next 24-36 hours.
By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

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starman1





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Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Oct 15, 2008 2:16 pm  Reply with quote  

“Omar” has reached official hurricane strength and is currently classified as a CAT 1 with wind speeds approximately maintaining a minimum of 75 mph, which makes it just enough to warrant hurricane status.
The path Hurricane Omar is currently on will take it to the northeast of it’s present position over the Caribbean Islands dropping torrential rains and pushing surges on them, and then moving out into the open Atlantic waters well away from the US East Coast, where it is predicted to intensify to potentially a CAT 2, “before reaching the Lesser Antilles”.
In this latest visible satellite image the size and scope of this storm can be easily seen to cover a large portion of the Caribbean Sea, where there are reports of passenger cruise ships being re-routed around the storm to keep them out of harms way… Saying a prayer for those in the path of this one, as the watch continues…….

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlantic

quote:

Omar At Hurricane Strength, TD 16 Remains Weak
Omar is now a hurricane. As of 5:00 AM EDT Tuesday, Omar was located near 14.6 north, 67.7 west, or about 285 miles south-southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The storm is moving to the northeast at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds are about 75 mph, making Omar a category 1 hurricane. The central pressure is estimated to be 985 millibars, or 29.09 inches of mercury. Hurricane force wind extends out 15 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward near 90 miles mostly on the east side of the storm.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the U. S. Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Vieques and Culebra.
A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, which could be upgraded to a hurricane warning soon. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, and Montserrat.
Omar will move on a northeastward course through today. Omar's forward speed will also increase through today. The westerly upper level wind that has been shearing Omar has weakened, which has allowed it to become a hurricane. The shear will remain light for the remainder of the time Omar is over the Caribbean, so Omar will likely strengthen further before reaching the Lesser Antilles, likely to category 2 intensity. This will result in high wind, perhaps to 100 mph in gusts, excessive rainfall of over 6 inches, battering surf, and a storm surge for the islands in the path of Omar. Conditions will deteriorate during the day today, with the worst of the storm tonight. The wind and rain will lessen on Thursday.
Locally heavy rain will taper off on the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao this morning.

At 5 am EDT Tropical Depression 16 was located near 16.0 north, 84.2 west or about 95 miles east of Limon Honduras. T.D. 16 has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and is moving to the west at 6 mph and is expected to remain very close to shore of the northern coast of Honduras through Thursday. The main threat from the depression will be excessive rainfall. It will bring 4-8 inches of rainfall over northeastern Nicaragua and northern Honduras with local totals of 15 inches. This much rainfall will lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in some places. There is some potential for the depression to strengthen and become a tropical storm through Thursday; the next name on the list for Atlantic basin storms is Paloma.
Elsewhere in the tropics, there are several features to monitor. The remains of Nana and another small area of low pressure trailing it by 150 miles or so remain devoid of thunderstorms and it is unlikely that Nana will regenerate or for the other low to develop. These features will be pulled away to the northeast over the next few days by the same upper-level trough that is steering Omar northeastward.
A cluster of thunderstorms can be found in the Gulf of Mexico just east of the Texas Coastal Bend; this is associated with an upper level low. This feature is pulling in tropical moisture, but it is unlikely that this feature will become a tropical cyclone. It will send thunderstorms with heavy downpours into southern and southeastern Texas on Wednesday and Thursday; the heaviest of the rain will occur when a front now over the Southern Plains also moves into this area.
Tropical waves along 55 west and 38 west are causing spotty thunderstorms, but they are disorganized. Upper level westerly winds are causing shear that will keep the waves disorganized as they slowly track westward. A tropical wave previously along 62 west has been absorbed by Omar.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait

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