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2009 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Oct 07, 2009 2:19 pm  Reply with quote  

The Atlantic has its 8th storm brewing for the season, currently classified as a tropical storm ""Henri" has begun to spin out in what has been a very quiet region for the most part this year’s season. This storm is not predicted to rapidly intensify due to unfavorable conditions present in its path currently. Still, none the less we will watch.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Henri Churns West, Rest of Atlantic Quiet
Last Update: 7-OCT-2009 08:13am EDT

Tropical Storm Henri continues to slowly strengthen. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Henri was located at 18.41 north and 56.1 west and moving to the west at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 50 mph with the central pressure at 1005 mb or 29.68 inches. It is currently located about 460 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Henri remains in a very hostile environment as it is in the midst of strong, southwesterly wind shear. As a result, most of the convection is to the north and east of the center of circulation. Southwesterly shear is expected to remain in place over Tropical Storm Henri over the next couple of days and will inhibit rapid strengthening. The most likely scenario is that Henri weakens over the next day or so as it tracks towards the west and northwest, north of the Leeward Islands. By the end of the weekend into the upcoming weekend, Henri will maintain more of a westerly course, as it is influenced and guided by strong ridge centered over the southwestern Atlantic.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet with a large area of moderate to strong shear creating hostile conditions for any development. There also remains an expansive area of dry air, which is unfavorable for development.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Carl Erickson and Meteorologist Justin Povick

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Oct 08, 2009 2:04 pm  Reply with quote  

"Henri" has been down graded to a tropical depression, and it presently appears that it will not become a major threat any time soon. Experts expect this storm to continue to diminish in intensity over the next day making it less likely that it will regain strength, but the potential still exist, so we watch...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Henri Now a Depression
Last Update: 8-OCT-2009 04:45am EDT

Henri has weakened to a tropical depression. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of the depression was located at 19.9 north and 61.3 west, moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum-sustained winds are now 35 mph with the central pressure at 1009 mb, or 29.80 inches. Tropical Depression Henri is currently located about 165 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Henri remains in a hostile environment as it is in the midst of strong, westerly wind shear. As a result, most of the convection remains to the east of the center of circulation. Henri is expected to weaken to a remnant low pressure area over the next 12-24 hours as the shear continues, but it will still cause pulses of convection and could maintain a low-level center of circulation over the next several days. High pressure aloft currently building over Florida will shift to the northeast of the Bahamas by Friday and then remain nearly stationary through the weekend. This will steer the system more to the west and probably to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the weekend.

A tropical wave located along 52 west and south of 15 north is tracking west at 15 knots and should bring unsettled weather to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night and Friday.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Oct 12, 2009 3:10 pm  Reply with quote  

Another east pacific storm has achieved sufficient force to qualify as a named seasonal storm, and is now Tropical Storm "Patricia". This storm is expected to strengthen as it heads toward the Baja peninsula later this week.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Patricia Near Baja California
Last Update: 12-OCT-2009 06:31am EDT

As of 2 a.m. PDT, Patricia was located near 18.6 north and 108.9 west, or about 305 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja, California. Patricia is expected to slowly strengthen for the next 48 hours as the tropical storm approaches Baja California on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Elsewhere, the Eastern and Central Pacific remain very quiet at this time. Aside from shower and thunderstorm development along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, no other significant tropical waves are found throughout the Pacific Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Paquette


The Atlantic remains remarkably quiet.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Oct 13, 2009 1:50 pm  Reply with quote  

"Patricia" is still maintaining tropical storm status to the south of Baja. This storm may be headed out to sea according to expert reports if predicted conditions prevail, but it may still present a problem for the peninsula before it makes its turn...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Patricia Slowly Moving Northeast
Last Update: 13-OCT-2009 08:32am EDT

As of 5 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Patricia was located near 21.0 north and 109.2 west, or about 140 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds were about 60 mph and the storm is moved north at 6 mph. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the southern Baja Peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas, with tropical storm watches from north of Buenavista to La Paz, and also from north of Agua Blanca to Santa Fe. A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build north of Patricia as it nears Baja. This would force the tropical storm to make a left turn and go out to sea. It is uncertain whether Patricia will be over Baja when this happens, although it is certain that it will be close enough for some of her affects to be felt, including heavy rainfall and gusty wind across the southern Baja. Patricia should make its closest approach late on late today or early on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, the Eastern and Central Pacific remain very quiet at this time. Aside from shower and thunderstorm development along the Intertropical Convergence Zone, no other significant tropical waves are found throughout the Pacific Basin.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Oct 14, 2009 2:04 pm  Reply with quote  

"Patricia" is now a Tropical Depression and on satellite imagery presently appears to be losing steam and turning westerly away from the Baja peninsula out to sea. Navy track maps point to the storm moving that way as well...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=ep&ATCF_YR=2009&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2009/ep192009.09101312.gif&CURRENT=20091014.1345.goes11.x.ir1km_bw.19EPATRICIA.25kts-1007mb-228N-1099W.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=ep192009.09101312.gif&ATCF_NAME=ep192009&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2009&ACTIVES=09-EPAC-19E.PATRICIA,09-WPAC-19W.PARMA,09-WPAC-22W.TWENTYTWO,09-WPAC-93W.INVEST,09-SHEM-94S.INVEST&MO=OCT&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2009&YR=09&BASIN=EPAC&STORM_NAME=19E.PATRICIA&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc09/EPAC/19E.PATRICIA/ir/geo/1km_bw&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=gif
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Oct 16, 2009 2:14 pm  Reply with quote  

Another new storm has gotten up to speed over night in the East Pacific and has qualified to be named the season's 16th official storm called Tropical Storm "Rick". This storm is expected to reach hurricane status shortly as it is already pushing wind speeds sustained at 65 mph. Experts are predicting a potential major hurricane formation over the next "day or two"...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Rick Nearing Hurricane Strength
Last Update: 16-OCT-2009 08:55am EDT

Tropical Storm Rick developed Thursday night. As of Friday morning, Rick had sustained winds of 65 mph. it was located about 300 miles south of Acapulco, moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. The latest satellite loop shows a very well developed storm. It will become a hurricane later Friday. This developing tropical cyclone is over very warm water, and upper-level winds are light, encouraging good outflow aloft. Rick is therefore expected to strengthen rapidly, possibly into a major hurricane over the next day or two. It should take a west-northwest track through the weekend to the south of a ridge of high pressure aloft over Mexico. The ridge will break down later in the weekend, and the tropical cyclone may slow down to the south of Baja California, perhaps as major hurricane.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel


The Atlantic region remains unseasonably quiet with no signs of any major development presently.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Oct 17, 2009 2:14 pm  Reply with quote  

The report below states Hurricane "Rick" is a major CAT 3, but as of the time of this writing this storm is maintaining a CAT 4 classification and is showing signs of further intensification.
Navy track maps presently are showing no predicted path for this storm, however; other expert reports predict a slowing down of the storm and a shift toward Baja California that may be possible "early next week." All eyes on "Rick"!!!



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Rick a Major Hurricane
Last Update: 17-OCT-2009 06:15am EDT

As of 2 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Rick was located near 13.9 north and 102.0 west or about 250 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds have increased to 115 mph with wind gusts as high as 125 mph making Rick a major category three hurricane. Rick is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 millibars or 28.35 inches of mercury.

Rick remains in a very good environment for continued strengthening as water temperatures are quite warm and wind shear is light. In addition, Rick is moving through a moist environment, so the tropical cyclone will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

A ridge of high pressure north of Rick will continue to steer the hurricane in a general west-northwest path through the rest of the weekend, then the ridge will begin to weaken. This will cause Rick to slow down and turn toward the northwest and north, shifting the path toward Baja California early next week. Outer rainbands from Rick will begin to affect the southern coast of Mexico this weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney

All Regions:
Atlantic | E. Pacific | Indian | S. Pacific | W. Pacific | World
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Oct 18, 2009 2:11 am  Reply with quote  

Here is a picture of Hurricane "Rick" from earlier this afternoon...
Now cruising at an impressive CAT 5, this thing is incredible to look at... It has become a very dangerous storm in less than 48 hours, and may be growing even more than it's already impressive 160 mph sustained wind speed... Heads up, down there!




http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Rick Strengthens to a Category 5 Hurricane
Last Update: 17-OCT-2009 6:14pm EDT

As of 3 p.m. PDT, Major Hurricane Rick was located near 14.8 north and 104.5 west or about 290 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds have now increased to 160 mph with wind gusts as high as 190 mph making Rick an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane. Rick is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 millibars or 27.58 inches of mercury.

Rick remains in a very good environment for continued strengthening as water temperatures are quite warm and wind shear is light, so it could intensify even further over the next 12 hours. After that, eye wall replacement cycles will cause the intensity to fluctuate. Rick will move over cooler waters and into a higher wind sheared and drier environment the early to middle part of next week causing the hurricane to gradually weaken.

A ridge of high pressure north of Rick will continue to steer the hurricane in a general west-northwest path through the rest of the weekend, then the ridge will begin to weaken as an upper trough of low pressure moves into the western United States. This will cause Rick to slow down and turn toward the northwest and north early next week and then to the northeast toward southern Baja around midweek with an increase in forward speed. There is a good chance that Rick makes landfall as a hurricane either over the southern Baja Peninsula or the west coast of Mexico so all interests in these areas should closely monitor this major hurricane. Outer rain bands and dangerous rough surf from Rick will affect the southern coast of Mexico this weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Oct 18, 2009 6:55 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Rick" is maintaining CAT 5 hurricane status, and at one point reached near record intensity, and now qualifies according to expert reports as the second most powerful storm on record for the East Pacific region. It is predicted to lose some of its energy before making landfall, projected to be at or near southern Baja.





http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Power Hurricane Rick Weakens Slightly
Last Update: 18-OCT-2009 11:39am EDT

As of 8 a.m. PDT, Major Hurricane Rick was located near 15.8 degrees north and 108.3 degrees west, or about 500 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds were near 175 mph with wind gusts as high as 210 mph. Rick has weakened only slightly; earlier, it had become the second-strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific basin. Rick is the first Category 5 storm in this ocean basin since Hurricane Kenna in 2002. Rick will continue on a west-northwest course at near 14 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen somewhat to 914 millibars (26.99 inches of mercury), or still an exceptionally low pressure.

In the short term, the intensity of Rick will be determined by periodic eye-wall replacement cycles and, as such, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or so. Rick is expected to remain a Category 5 hurricane into the middle of the day on Monday. Eventually, this storm will move over cooler waters and into an environment characterized by drier air and stronger wind shear. Later Monday through midweek, there will be gradual weakening.

The eye path of Hurricane Rick will be driven by a ridge of high pressure north of the storm today. This ridge will weaken as an upper trough of low pressure moves into the western United States, causing Rick to slow down and turn more toward the northwest and then to the north early next week. Eventually, Rick will turn to the northeast toward southern Baja California around midweek with an increase in forward speed. There is a good chance that Rick makes landfall as a hurricane over the southern Baja California Peninsula. A landfall on the mainland west coast of Mexico will be possible, too. All interests in these areas should closely monitor this major hurricane. Outer rain bands and dangerous rough surf from Rick will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico today.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Randy Adkins, Michael LeSeney and Jim Andrews
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Oct 19, 2009 1:54 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Rick" has slowed down to a CAT 3 classification presently, and is still predicted to weaken before impacting southern Baja. The storm is presently affecting the west coast of Mexico and southern Baja with rains and high surf.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Rick Weakens, but Still Dangerous
Last Update: 19-OCT-2009 08:52am EDT

As of 5 a.m. PDT Monday, major Hurricane Rick was located near 17.7 degrees north and 111.1 degrees west, or about 65 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 125 mph, making Rick a Category 3 hurricane. Rick was the second-strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific basin and the first Category 5 storm in this ocean basin since Hurricane Kenna in 2002. Rick is on a northwest course at about 10 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 950 millibars (28.05 inches of mercury).

Upper-level conditions over the top of Rick are still favorable for a tropical system, but the hurricane is moving away from a deep layer of warm ocean water and over slightly cooler waters. In addition, the air is drier in the path of Rick, so it should continue to gradually weaken but will remain a major hurricane into Monday night. Beyond that, stronger wind shear aloft, cooler ocean waters and dry air should weaken the hurricane at a quicker pace Tuesday into Wednesday.

The path of Hurricane Rick is being driven by an upper-level ridge of high pressure over northwestern Mexico. The upper-level ridge will get shoved to the east Monday by an upper trough of low pressure currently barreling toward the western coast. This will cause Rick to slow and turn more toward the northwest and north Monday, then to the northeast Tuesday with an increase in forward speed toward Baja California Tuesday night. There is a good chance that Rick will make landfall as a hurricane over the southern Baja California Peninsula early Wednesday, then perhaps the western coast of Mexico later Wednesday. All interests in these areas should closely monitor this major hurricane. Outer rain bands and dangerously rough surf from Rick will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight.

A new tropical depression has developed in the central Pacific near 8.9 north and 158.9 west, or about 860 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii. It is moving toward the west at nearly 20 mph and has sustained winds of 35 mph. It should continue to strengthen and could become a tropical storm over the next 12-24 hours, and perhaps even a hurricane in a few days.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Oct 20, 2009 4:02 pm  Reply with quote  

In approximately just over 4 days, what is now classified as Tropical Storm "Rick" has gone from a tropical storm to a "major" near record setting CAT 5 hurricane and back down to a tropical storm again before making land fall, and all in less than 5 days. What an incredible ride that was, 0 to 210 mph gust in just 48 hours, and back down to 65 mph or less in approximately the same amount of time, maybe a new record was set we will have to check the books. It did come close to being the strongest storm on record for the East Pacific region coming in at number 2 according to expert reports. No matter how many records it set this storm has made its mark in the hurricane journals for all time, and we are still watching!!!


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Rick Approaching Baja California
Last Update: 20-OCT-2009 11:28am EDT

As of 8 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Rick has sustained winds estimated to be near 65 mph. Rick is located near 20.1 degrees north and 110.8 degrees west, or about 200 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Rick, during its peak intensity on Sunday, was the second strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific basin and the first Category 5 storm in this ocean basin since Hurricane Kenna in 2002. Rick is on a northeastward course, moving at about 7 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 991 millibars (29.26 inches of mercury).

Atmospheric conditions around Rick remain quite hostile for a tropical system with strong wind shear and very dry air in place. Additionally, the storm continues to move away from a deep layer of warm ocean water into slightly cooler waters. As a result, Rick is not expected to restrengthen and, in fact, should continue to gradually weaken today and tonight.

The path of Tropical Storm Rick is being influenced by an upper-level ridge of high pressure over northwestern Mexico. The upper-level ridge will get shoved to the east today by an upper-level trough of low pressure currently moving over the West Coast of the United States. This will cause Rick to turn more toward the northeast through the day today. Rick is expected to pass just south of the southern tip of Baja California early Wednesday and make landfall along the western coast of Mexico later Wednesday morning. Outer rain bands and dangerously rough surf from Rick will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico today through Wednesday until the storm makes landfall.

As of 5:00 a.m. HST, Tropical Storm Neki was located near 13.3 north, 163.3 west. This is about 655 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, or 475 miles east-southeast of Johnston Island. Neki is moving toward the northwest at 16 mph and maximum-sustained winds have increased to 65 mph. It should continue to strengthen and could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Neki is on a path that could bring hurricane-force winds to Johnston Island later this week.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologists Carl Erickson and Brian Wimer


On a side note, Tropical Storm "Neki" (which is not included in the East Pacific season's storm list) forming just below the Hawaiian chain looks to be picking up steam as well and should also be watched as it develops...
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Oct 21, 2009 1:59 pm  Reply with quote  

The remnants of the storm that was hurricane "Rick" are now mostly over Mexico and parts of Texas. This near record setting storm fizzled out nicely before running aground near Mazatlan with less than hurricane class winds, minimizing the total potential destruction this thing could have possessed. We thank the powers that be that no major destruction was realized by this storm that was only a few days ago a major Category 5 class monster hurricane. God Bless!




http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Rick Nearing Mexican Coast and Weakening
Last Update: 21-OCT-2009 08:30am EDT

As of 5 a.m. PDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Rick has sustained winds estimated to be near 55 mph. Rick is located near 22.3 degrees north and 107.5 degrees west, or about 90 miles southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Rick continues on a northeastward course and has recently increased in speed, moving at about 16 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 millibars (29.35 inches of mercury).

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the west coast of southern Baja California from Agua Blanca southward and for the east coast from Buena Vista southward including Cabo San Lucas. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Altata.

Vertical wind shear over Rick will prevent the storm from intensifying further. In fact, the storm has recently weakened although it's over relatively warm water. It will make landfall sometime later this morning or early this afternoon PDT. The storm has tropical storm-force winds that extend outward up to 140 miles. Anyone living along the west coast of mainland Mexico between San Blas and Altata will experience heavy periods of rainfall and tropical storm-force winds and torrential rainfall into late Wednesday. Water along this coastline will also feature large and dangerous surf through the morning hours.

Moisture from Rick will interact with a cold front and bring heavy rainfall to parts of central and eastern Texas later Wednesday, Wednesday night into Thursday. This heavy rainfall will also affect parts of the Deep South, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley on Thursday into Friday.

As of 11:00 p.m. HST, Hurricane Neki was located near 16.6 north, 166.0 west. This is about 6,340 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, or 220 miles east of Johnston Atoll. Neki is moving toward the northwest at 12 mph, and maximum sustained winds remain at 85 mph. Neki should continue to strengthen and could become a major hurricane later today or tonight. Neki is on a path that will keep it well west of the Hawaiian Islands. However, the storm could bring hurricane-force winds to Johnston Island which is over 500 miles west of the Hawaiian Islands later this week. As a result this island and the islands along this atoll are under a hurricane watch.

The remainder of the tropics in the eastern and central Pacific are quiet.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins and Meteorologist Justin Povick.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Nov 05, 2009 3:27 pm  Reply with quote  

After a long quiet spell in the Atlantic region, a new named storm has formed in the southwestern Caribbean as of Wednesday afternoon and has already achieved a CAT1 Hurricane classification by this morning. What is now Hurricane "Ida" possesses what experts are labeling, "life threatening rainfall upwards of 15 to 20 inches over areas of Nicaragua and Honduras", creating the potential for flooding and mudslides. Experts also warn this storm may become a threat to the areas in the Gulf of Mexico...


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Ida Becomes a Hurricane near Nicaragua
Last Update: 5-NOV-2009 07:50am EST

Ida formed Wednesday afternoon in the southwestern Caribbean and has reached hurricane strength this morning as it approaches the Nicaraguan coast. Ida is located near 12.8 north and 83.4 west, or about 60 miles northeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Sustained winds are near 75 mph along with higher gusts. Minimal surface pressure is 987 mb, or 29.15 inches, with movement to the northwest at 7 mph.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the east coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields northward to Puerto Cabezas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border northward to Bluefields, and from north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras-Nicaragua border. A hurricane watch is also in effect for the eastern coast of Nicaragua from north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras-Nicaragua border.

Landfall in central Nicaragua is imminent with Ida's current movement to the west-northwest. The most dangerous aspect of this storm over the next several days will be life-threatening rainfall. Rainfall in excess of 15 to 20 inches will fall across eastern Nicaragua and portions of eastern Honduras through the weekend, leading to dangerous flooding and mudslides. The interaction with land will cause the system to weaken considerably as it continues to move northwest on Friday and then north on Saturday, causing it to weaken quickly. However, the remnant feature is expected to move back out over water in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday night or Sunday. Very warm waters exist just east of the Yucatan Peninsula where we expect the storm to be positioned by the latter half of the weekend. These warm waters combined with minimal wind shear will likely allow Ida to re-strengthen into a tropical storm at that point. Looking deeper into the forecast through the middle of next week, we think it is possible for Ida to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Any interests in the Gulf of Mexico should pay attention to Ida's progress. However, at this point, it appears Ida would interact with strong wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, limiting the chances of further development.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic remains void of any potential tropical systems and no other features are expected to evolve anywhere in the basin through at least Thursday.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostFri Nov 06, 2009 3:16 pm  Reply with quote  

Today "Ida" has been downgraded from its previous Hurricane status to a Tropical Depression. This storm, according to expert reports may once again intensify after moving over the warmer Gulf waters near Honduras, and then potentially pass the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico. Current satellite imagery does appear to confirm the predicted intensification, and Navy track maps predict the storm path on a course that bring it near to Cancun as it heads north toward the Gulf.





http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Depression Ida Continues Northward
Last Update: 6-NOV-2009 08:37am EST

Ida is a tropical depression over northeastern Nicaragua. As of 7 a.m EST, Ida was located near 14.6 north, 84.2 west, or about 65 miles west-southwest of Cabo Gracias A Dios along the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Maximum sustained winds remain at 35 mph along with higher gusts. Minimal surface pressure is 1005 mb, or 29.68 inches, and the storm is moving north at about 6 mph.

All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast coast of Honduras from Limon eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The most dangerous aspect of this storm today will be life-threatening rainfall. Rainfall totals in excess of 15 to 20 inches will fall across eastern Nicaragua and parts of eastern Honduras, leading to dangerous flooding and mudslides. The heaviest rainfall today will be in eastern Honduras, with the rain tapering off later today and tonight. The storm has weakened considerably over the past 24 hours; however, the remnant feature is expected to move back out over water in the Gulf of Honduras near or just east of the Bay Islands on Saturday. Very warm waters exist just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, where we expect the storm to be positioned by the latter half of the weekend. These warm waters combined with minimal wind shear will likely allow Ida to re-strengthen into a tropical storm. Recent computer forecasts continue to show Ida moving farther north into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Any interests near or along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and in the Gulf of Mexico should pay close attention to Ida's progress.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic remains void of any potential tropical systems, and no other features are expected to evolve anywhere in the basin through at least Saturday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologists Dan Kottlowski and Brian Wimer
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starman1





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PostMon Nov 09, 2009 3:14 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Ida" is maintaining CAT 1 classification again as it moves through the Gulf waters headed to the north, but experts report the storm is losing steam as it progresses due to unfavorable conditions in its path. Navy track maps now anticipate the storm will land on the western edge of the Floridian pan handle just east of the Alabama border.
Still on the watch, here is the latest visible image of the storm...



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Ida Weakening, but Still a Category 1 Hurricane
Last Update: 9-NOV-2009 08:19am EST

Hurricane Ida is moving northward in the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning. As of 7 a.m. EST, the storm was located near 25.8 north and 88.2 west, or about 330 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph, which makes Ida a Category 1 hurricane. Ida is moving toward the north at 16 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 993 mb, or 29.32 inches.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northern Gulf Coast from Pascagoula, Miss. eastward to Indian Pass, Fla. A tropical storm warning along with a hurricane watch are also in effect for the central Gulf Coast from Grand Isle, La. eastward to just west of Pascagoula, Miss., which includes New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A tropical storm warning has been issued from just east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River, Fla.

Ida has weakened over the last several hours as it encountered cooler waters, as well as some shear. Although we expect slow weakening through the day today, heavy rain and strong winds will be a serious threat to the region. Widespread heavy rain will fall along parts of the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. This rain will create a significant flood threat in the region, where as much as 8 inches of rain can fall in the next 24 hours. Strong winds will increase tide levels along the coast and, as a result, there is a major concern for coastal flooding over the central Gulf Coast, including New Orleans. Storm surge will likely be on the order of 3-6 feet with Ida, especially just east of the center of the storm. Gusts to hurricane force, most likely to occur in the western Florida Panhandle, can lead to property damage, including power outages. At this point, we expect Ida to make landfall as a tropical storm early Tuesday morning on the western Florida Panhandle.

Rainfall with Ida will be greatest to the north and east of the location of landfall of the storm. Total rainfall from the storm will be between 5-10 inches, with the highest totals in western Florida and southwestern Georgia. Locally, 15 inches of rain could fall in some areas.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Matthew Rinde
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