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2010 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
2010 HURRICANE WATCH PostWed May 12, 2010 2:41 pm  Reply with quote  

As it once again approaches that time of year, we begin our vigil in earnest and in anticipation of any early arrivals.
This year, with the continuing oil crisis still spewing out in the waters of the Gulf it is with great regret we begin this year’s hurricane watch.
The life already lost; along with the potential for even greater destruction of environment and habitat and all species affected by this spill will be an epic disaster of unknown proportions all by itself. And now looms the threat of mixing it all up in a "HURRICANE SEASON"... What kind of potential mess lies ahead, God only knows...
However it plays out it does not look to be a very promising start for any of us in this year's season. Any early storm arrivals could bode devastation on the efforts being made to get the spill stopped and extend the damage to life and environment even further.
It is the sincerest hope and prayer of this watcher that those responsible for getting this leak stopped are unhampered by any storms and are 100% successful in their efforts as soon as earthly possible. So it is without pretense or reservation we make this request.
Dear LORD God, Father of Heaven and Earth, Creator of all things, Esteemed Most High, please hear this prayer and if it be in your will act upon it accordingly. We ask that you intervene in the stopping of this senseless waste of life and destruction of your Earth by lending your hand to those involved in stopping it, by aiding and protecting their efforts as they try to resolve this oil spill created in the Gulf. And as in years past, it is also our prayer that all the innocence be protected by Your Grace, and may the suffering these storms bring this season also be eased, and any victims comforted. May those whose lives are lost find their way home to You… And, if any of these things/storms are being manipulated, beyond Your Will and Nature, may the perpetrators responsible suffer Your Wrath for their crimes......... By Your Heavenly Promise we ask these things, therefore make them so, and thank You God... a man.

The 2010 HURRICANE WATCH begins...


Last edited by starman1 on Mon May 30, 2011 11:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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starman1





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Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu May 13, 2010 2:35 pm  Reply with quote  

This year the names of the Atlantic storms will be from the same list that was used in 2004, with the exception of the names that were retired and replaced due to the severity of those previous storms.
It appears that there are six lists of storm names which are rotated over the years, and if a storm is so severe and damaging, the name used for it is retired and replaced by another beginning with the same letter.

At any rate, here are the names for 2010 in the Atlantic as reported by the National Hurricane Center:


    Alex
    Bonnie
    Colin
    Danielle (dan-YELL)
    Earl
    Fiona
    Gaston
    Hermine (her-MEEN)
    Igor (e-GOR)
    Julia
    Karl
    Lisa (LEE-sa)
    Matthew
    Nicole (ni-COLE)
    Otto
    Paula
    Richard (RICH-erd)
    Shary (SHA-ree)
    Tomas (to-MAS)
    Virginie (vir-JIN-ee)
    Walter

(Charley was replaced by Colin)
(Frances was replaced by Fiona)
(Ivan was replaced by Igor)
(Jeanne was replaced by Julia)

And here are the names that will be used in the Eastern North Pacific:

    Agatha
    Blas
    Celia
    Darby
    Estelle
    Frank
    Georgette
    Howard
    Isis
    Javier
    Kay
    Lester
    Madeline
    Newton
    Orlene
    Paine
    Roslyn
    Seymour
    Tina
    Virgil
    Winifred
    Xavier (ZAY-vier)
    Yolanda (yo-LAHN-da)
    Zeke


Presently all is calm and we are grateful for that...
Getting prepared early is not a bad thing, so we watch.........
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon May 31, 2010 2:13 pm  Reply with quote  

The Twenty Ten season has officially arrived with the advent of the seasons first named storm out in the East Pacific waters, "Agatha". Some reports claim near 100 lives have already been lost in Nicaragua. The remnants of this storm now appear on satellite imagery to be reorganizing in the waters south east of the Yucatan Peninsula in the western Caribbean Sea.
Expert reports suggest this storm may head toward Cuba and potentially parts of southern Florida.
There has never been a worse time in human history for Hurricane or Tropical Storm activity in this region of the world. Any severe storm activity in the Gulf region at this time could aide to cripple already suffering experimental attempts to halt the worst man made environmental disaster ever created on the Seas...
What effects these storms could play with regard to the oil displacement, God only knows as we have never faced such an unparalleled crisis.
Uneasily we watch as this years season begins.........

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Last Update: 31-MAY-2010 08:32am EDT

Agatha weakened below depression status early Sunday morning. The remnants of the former storm, which was the first named storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific Basin, will continue to bring locally heavy rain with some flooding across Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday.

As Agatha continues to slowly track across the mountainous terrain of Central America, it will dump another 3 to 6 inches of rain in some areas. The heaviest rain Monday will be across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. This will result in flash flooding and mudslides in some locations.

Monday night or Tuesday, the remnant circulation of Agatha will emerge into either the western Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, sending an increase in moisture across Cuba and southern Florida during the middle of the week.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer
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starman1





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PostFri Jun 18, 2010 1:55 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm number 2 on the Pacific side is named Blas. Expert reports suggest this one will not strengthen over the next day, as it heads west and north over open water away from land...

http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Last Update: 18-JUN-2010 07:25am EDT

As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Tropical Storm Blas was located approximately 270 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The storm has maximum sustained winds of around 40 mph and was drifting west-northwestward at 5 mph. Estimated central pressure within the storm is 1000 millibars, or 29.53 inches.

Blas has weakened slightly in the last 12 hours, and it is not expected to strengthen much over the next 24 hours. The storm is expected to move west-northwest during the next several days over cooler ocean waters, likely leading to weakening this weekend. That movement will keep the storm over open waters and well away from land.

Other areas of disturbed weather, including the remnants of East Pacific Depression Number 2, are located near and over the southern coast of Mexico eastward to parts of Central America. There are no signs of organization at this time within this area of active thunderstorms, and development is not expected across the rest of the East Pacific basin through at least Saturday.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

The Atlantic reports currently display 3 active waves and a tropical low but anticipate no significant hurricane threat development at this point in time, however; there are predictions for heavy rains over Haiti, creating potential life threatening mudslides as a systems moves over the region...
Heads up as we keep the watch ever active...
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starman1





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PostMon Jun 21, 2010 1:54 pm  Reply with quote  

We have our first named Hurricane of the 2010 Season formed in the East Pacific region called "Celia". The storm is currently cruising at a CAT1 classification with expectations of intensification, but presently poses no threat to land as reported by the experts...

http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Hurricane Celia and Tropical Depression Blas
Last Update: 21-JUN-2010 05:42am EDT

Celia is the first hurricane to form in the East Pacific this year. As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Celia was located 380 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Celia has maximum-sustained winds of 80 mph and an estimated central pressure of 986 millibars, or 29.12 inches. The storm is moving west at 9 mph.

Satellite information shows that Celia will continue to gradually intensify. This storm should intensify further over the next 24 hours as it remains over very warm water. This storm is expected to become a category 2 hurricane late on Monday or Tuesday. No matter its intensity, this storm is not expected to become a threat to land.

Blas has weakened to a tropical depression. As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Tropical Depression Blas was located approximately 575 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm has maximum-sustained winds of around 35 mph and was moving west at 13 mph. Estimated central pressure within the storm is 1007 millibars, or 29.74 inches.

The storm has weakened considerably over the past 12-18 hours as it now moves over cooler water. Satellite images show a large area of clouds off to the west and northwest of the storm suggesting a more stable atmosphere. A slow and steady weakening is expected over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards
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starman1





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PostTue Jun 22, 2010 1:54 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Celia" is picking up speed and is now maintaining a CAT 2 classification with wind speeds exceeding 105 mph. The storm is forecast to intensify but expert reports still say it will not affect any land masses as it heads out to sea in the East Pacific.


http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Hurricane Celia a Category 2 Storm
Last Update: 22-JUN-2010 06:24am EDT

Celia is the first hurricane to form in the East Pacific this year and is now a category 2 hurricane. As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Celia was located 500 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Celia has maximum-sustained winds of 105 mph and an estimated central pressure of 970 millibars, or 28.64 inches. The storm is moving west at 8 mph.

Celia is expected to steadily intensify over the next 24 to 36 hours as it remains over very warm water and the upper-level wind shear is light. This storm could become a category 3 hurricane later on Tuesday. No matter its intensity, this storm is expected to continue moving westward and will not be a threat to any land masses.

Blas is now a remnant area of low pressure. As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Blas was located approximately 975 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The system now has limited convection with it and should continue to diminish.

Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of Guatemala centered along 92 west has a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system may occur over the next couple of days as it continues moving slowly westward. Environmental conditions are favorable for development as sea surface temperatures are warm and the wind shear is weak off to the west.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer



Thankfully, there is still no significant storm development headed toward the Gulf region at this time.
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starman1





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PostWed Jun 23, 2010 1:33 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Celia" has weakened somewhat over the last day but is once again predicted to increase in speed and intensity as it heads further west where experts still do not expect it to become a threat to any land.
Meanwhile; another Tropical Storm has formed in the East Pacific waters and has qualified to earn the name of the seasons fifth named storm, Tropical Storm “Darby”. “Darby” is also expected to intensify as it too moves to the west, slightly east of “Celia”, and at this point appears to be no threat to any land as well.
http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Hurricane Celia; New Tropical Storm Darby Forms
Last Update: 23-JUN-2010 05:45am EDT

As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Celia was located 770 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Celia has maximum-sustained winds of 85 mph and an estimated central pressure of 980 millibars, or 28.94 inches. The storm is moving west at 10 mph and remains away from any land.

Celia continues to weaken slightly on Wednesday morning, but is expected to gradually intensify on Wednesday as it remains over very warm water and over minimal wind shear. This storm could become a category 2 hurricane again on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of its intensity, this storm is expected to continue moving westward and will not be a threat to any land.

Elsewhere, the fifth tropical depression of the year has strengthened into another tropical storm in the eastern Pacific on Wednesday morning. As of 4:00 a.m. CDT, Tropical Storm Darby was located at 11.5 north and 94.0 west or about 335 miles south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds are 40 mph with an estimated central pressure of 1006 mb or 29.71 inches. The tropical storm is moving off to the northwest at 9 mph. Gradual intensification is expected over the next few days as it continues moving slowly westward over the next 24 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards


Out in the Atlantic there are multiple tropical waves being reported, some of which may produce heavy rains over areas of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and potentially eventually over parts of Cuba. Once again, creating the potential for life threatening mudslides in those regions affected.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
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starman1





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PostWed Jun 23, 2010 10:49 pm  Reply with quote  

Less than 8 hours and "Celia" is tracking as a Major Hurricane, but still not expected to pose any threat to land...
"Darby" is increasing as well.




http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Celia a Major Hurricane, Darby Stronger
Last Update: 23-JUN-2010 6:19pm EDT

As of 2:00 P.M. PDT, Hurricane Celia has become a major hurricane. Celia was located near 12.3 north, 110.4 west or 1180 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Celia has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and an estimated central pressure of 963 millibars, or 28.44 inches. The storm is moving west at 13 mph and remains well away from land.

Celia has strengthened into a major hurricane and should continue to intensify during the next couple of days as it remains over very warm water and over minimal wind shear. Regardless of its intensity, this storm is expected to continue moving westward and will not be a threat to any land.

Tropical Storm Darby was located near 12.0 north,96.1 west or about 475 miles south southwest of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph with an estimated central pressure of 995 mb or 29.38 inches. The tropical storm is moving off to the west-northwest at 12 mph.

Darby should experience gradual intensification as it remains over warm water and only weak shear. A strong tropical wave in the Caribbean could develop and affect the steering flow in and around Darby in a few days. However, if Darby keeps moving west and stays over warm water it will become strong enough and gain enough distance away from any developing system in the western Caribbean.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
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starman1





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PostThu Jun 24, 2010 1:34 pm  Reply with quote  

"Celia" still holding at a Category 3 class system, moving west in the East Pacific... "Darby" still presently classed as a Tropical Storm is now nearing Hurricane classification as well, as wind speeds have increased to near 70 plus mph. Soon it appears there will be two East Pacific HURRICANES!!!

http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Celia Regains Some Strength in the Pacific
Last Update: 24-JUN-2010 05:10am EDT

As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Celia was located near 12.6 north, 112.8 west, or 735 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Celia's maximum sustained winds has increased to 110 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane with an estimated central pressure of 967 millibars, or 28.56 inches. The storm is moving west-northwest at 13 mph moving away from land.

Celia will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours as it remains over very warm water and over minimal wind shear. Celia will then begin to weaken on Friday as it moves over cooler waters. Regardless of its intensity, this storm is expected to continue moving westward and will not be a threat to any land.

Tropical Storm Darby was located near 12.6 north, 98.0 west, or about 230 miles south-southwest of Puerto Escondido, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph with an estimated central pressure of 994 mb or 29.35 inches. The tropical storm is moving off to the west-northwest at 12 mph.

Darby should experience gradual intensification as it remains over warm water with only weak shear. A strong tropical wave in the Caribbean could develop and affect the steering flow in and around Darby in a few days. However, if Darby keeps moving west and stays over warm water it will become strong enough and gain enough distance away from any developing system in the western Caribbean.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney

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starman1





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PostFri Jun 25, 2010 2:40 pm  Reply with quote  

It is official; there are now two Hurricanes spinning in the east pacific, south west of Mexico.
Hurricane "Celia" has reached an impressive CAT 5 classification, and now Hurricane "Darby" is presently spinning as a CAT 2 system.
"Celia" is expected to slow down a bit as it enters over cooler water, and "Darby" although a smaller storm, is expected to intensify as it moves along in a westerly direction. However; neither of these systems is presently feared to be a threat to any land, so if that holds true it is good news.
Here are the latest available satellite images of the CAT 5...




http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Celia to Weaken; Darby Strengthens
Last Update: 25-JUN-2010 07:30am EDT

As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Celia was located near 13.4 north and 117.0 west, or 805 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Celia's maximum sustained wind has remained steady at 160 mph with gusts to 195 mph, making it a powerful and dangerous Category 5 hurricane with an estimated central pressure of 926 millibars, or 27.34 inches. The storm is moving west-northwest at 13 mph away from land.

Celia is expected to weaken through the day Friday as it moves over cooler waters. Regardless of its intensity, this storm is expected to continue moving westward and will not be a threat to any land.

As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Darby continued to increase in intensity to a Category 2. It was located near 13.4 north and 100.7 west, or about 250 miles to the south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained wind has increased further to 105 mph with an estimated central pressure of 967 mb, or 28.56 inches. The hurricane is moving off to the west-northwest at 8 mph. Darby is a small storm with hurricane-force wind only extending 25 miles form the center, and tropical storm-force wind extending 70 miles from the center.

Darby should remain at its current intensity, or strengthen slightly over the next 24 hours, flirting with Category 3 intensity before beginning a weakening trend over the weekend. Darby will keep moving west-northwest through today into Saturday before the westward progression slows later in the weekend; possible becoming nearly stationary. Darby poses no threat to land over the next several days.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty

Although not yet a tropical system, there is a potential storm brewing in the Atlantic region that could become a problem depending on its direction of travel, which experts warn will have an impact on the storms ability to develop into a threat potentially for the Gulf region.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Increasing Concern from Caribbean to the Gulf
Last Update: 25-JUN-2010 08:28am EDT

An area of low pressure is continuing to develop just to the east of the easternmost coast of Honduras with gradually lowering surface pressures noted. This broad area of low pressure is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave located along 83 west. The center of the low is roughly near 16 north and 83 west. Regardless of development, this better-organized feature will continue to bring areas of heavy rain and increase potential for mudslides in Jamaica and parts of Cuba today. This system will move west-northwest at about 10 mph and should slowly become better organized during the next few days. The track takes it over deep warm water, and shear to the north of the system should continue to slowly relax. If the system can remain south of the shear, and if surface low pressure associated with this feature continues to deepen, a tropical depression could form later today or tonight. Once organize begins, it could intensify quickly. However, the path followed will have a large influence on how much intensification takes place at first. If the system moves more west than north, it will track into the Yucatan Peninsula and weaken. If this feature moves more north than west and bypasses the Yucatan and Cuba, it could become a strong tropical storm, and perhaps a hurricane in a few days.

Tropical waves along 24 west, along 59 west, and along 75 west, are moving westward at about 6-7 degrees longitude per day. The tropical wave along 75 west has a large area of clouds and thunderstorms that will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and even Hispaniola during the next few days. This could bring more heavy rainfall and potential for mudslides on the higher terrain. There does not seem to be support for development at this time. However, moisture from this system might feed into the low pressure area forming east of Honduras.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and updated by Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer
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starman1





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PostSat Jun 26, 2010 2:15 pm  Reply with quote  

The two systems in the East Pacific are reducing in intensity as they are both now cruising at CAT 2 classification, and it is predicted they will continue to weaken further as they progress west posing no threat to any land...

http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=epacific

quote:
Darby and Celia Continue to Weaken in the Pacific
Last Update: 26-JUN-2010 07:32am EDT

As of 2 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Celia was located near 15.3 north and 120.7 west, or 880 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Celia's maximum-sustained winds have weakened to 100 mph with gusts to 120 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. Estimated central pressure is 974 millibars, or 28.76 inches. The hurricane is moving west-northwest at 10 mph, away from land.

Celia will continue to weaken rapidly during the next 24 hours as it continues to move over cooler waters. Regardless of its intensity, this storm is expected to maintain westward progress and will not be a threat to any land.

As of 2:00 a.m. PDT, Hurricane Darby was located near 13.5 north and 102.7 west, or about 300 miles to the south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Maximum-sustained winds have decreased to 110 mph, and is now a strong Category 2 hurricane. Estimated central pressure is 966 mb, or 28.53 inches. The hurricane is moving off to the west at 6 mph. Darby is a small storm with hurricane-force winds only extending 15 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extending only 35 miles from the center.

Darby should continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. Darby will keep moving west today before slowing and possibly becoming nearly stationary by Monday. Darby poses no threat to land over the next several days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney



For the moment the storm forming in the Atlantic region has once again raised the conscious level of the masses and media to the potential threat now looming in the Gulf. Last night NBC's Brian Williams remarked "I can't believe were talking about this"...

The first named storm in the Atlantic region this season has arrived and formed in the Caribbean and is presently known as "Tropical Storm Alex".
The scenarios these storms will play this year in this region are nightmarish in scope and scale with respect to the disastrous tragedy being played out by the irresponsible handling of the toxic resources unleashed in the Gulf. To begin the season "Alex" has already triggered the alarm and threatens potentially to disrupt the efforts being made to clean up the mess and possibly shut down all the present efforts being made to stop the leak...
And this is only the first storm to form in the region. Officials in charge of the clean up reported they would be shut down for 14 days if they were forced to temporarily shut down and abandon the site of the leaking well due to any storms approach. This would allow the oil to flow unchecked at full capacity again until they could return to cap it. Not to mention that the oil may be carried by storm surges into areas thought to be protected and those that aren't, and no one really knows yet what effect a hurricane will have on dispersing and spreading such a massive plume of oil over the environment.
This year is truly going to present some unexpected consequences that are going to be dealt with for years to come and to think it is only just beginning.
May God forgive and help us all...



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Tropical Storm Alex Forms in the Caribbean
Last Update: 26-JUN-2010 08:23am EDT

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT Alex was the first tropical storm of the season and is in the western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Alex is located near 17.0 north, 85.3 west or about 200 miles to the east of Belize City, Belize. Maximum-sustained winds are 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, mainly occurring on the east side of the storm center. Estimated surface pressure of the system is 1004 mb or 29.65 inches. The system is moving west-northwest at about 8 mph.

Alex will continue to move west-northwest over very warm water with low shear today. So conditions are favorable for further intensification before moving into the Yucatan Peninsula late on Saturday or Saturday night. The storm will move across the Yucatan during Sunday and will probably weaken back to a depression before moving back over open waters of the Bay of Campeche late on Sunday or Sunday night. Current computer forecasts diverge on where this system will go once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. There appears to be two main future paths. One future path is west-northwest or the current movement. This will keep the system in very low shear and over very warm water. This scenario would favor re-intensification and the system would once again become a storm and perhaps even intensify into a hurricane. The other potential path takes the system north, then northeast into increasing shear. Despite the shear, this system could still intensify somewhat for a time. But eventually it would experience too much shear for further development moving farther north or northeast. This system will bring heavy rainfall to much of the Yucatan, Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico through the weekend and into early next week.

A tropical storm warning is in effect along the coast of Belize and points northward along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, including areas from Chetumal to Cancun. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Honduras from Limon westward to the border of Honduras and Guatemala.

Tropical waves near 27 west, near 63 west and near 79 west, are moving westward at about 6-7 degrees longitude per day. The tropical wave along 79 west has a large area of clouds and thunderstorms that will get drawn into Tropical Storm Alex. This could help bring more heavy rainfall over parts of Cuba and Jamaica. The tropical wave along 63 west will end up breaking up into two pieces with one part moving west and the other heading northwest. Both parts will encounter strong shear preventing development through at least Sunday.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael LeSeney


Here is a look at "Alex" assembling, the system is massive already...
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starman1





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PostMon Jun 28, 2010 1:48 pm  Reply with quote  

"Alex" is gaining strength but experts believe it will not affect the efforts being made in the Gulf to contain the oil...
The season's first storm may become the season's first hurricane as it moves into the Gulf waters and gains speed. It is forecast to impact somewhere along the Mexican coast or possibly Texas, but computer models do project it will keep away from the oil rigs. Only the first of the season, but what a heads up it has been for those involved in the cleanup efforts.

"Celia" and "Darby" have slowed way down and are both now just Tropical Storm systems and appear to be diminishing to depressions forecast by days end.
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starman1





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PostTue Jun 29, 2010 2:26 pm  Reply with quote  

"Alex" is predicted to gain in intensity as it nears southern Texas where it is projected to impact potentially as a CAT 2 hurricane.
The storm is being watched closely, but experts still do not expect it to move near the oil rigs that are working on the spill and relief wells...
Here is what the storm looks like this morning as it gathers momentum.

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starman1





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PostWed Jun 30, 2010 2:05 pm  Reply with quote  

"Alex" has achieved hurricane status as it heads toward Texas. It is presently being clocked at a CAT 1 status but it is expected to reach a potential CAT 2 as it progresses over favorable conditions before running aground in or near southern Texas or perhaps northeast Mexico...
Thankfully, although there are probably residual effects being realized by those cleaning the oil mess, a direct hit on that region has so far been averted.
“Alex” is only the first named storm of the 2010 Hurricane Season, and it is also the season’s first HURRICANE! We are now one for one at the end of this year’s first month of the storm season.
Keeping up the watch as things progress…

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Hurricane Alex Gaining Strength, Approaching Mexican Coast
Last Update: 30-JUN-2010 08:21am EDT

As of 7:00 a.m. CDT, Alex continues to slowly strengthen as a Category 1 hurricane and is located near 23.4 north and 95.3 west, or about 220 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas. The storm is now moving to the west-northwest at roughly 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Minimum central pressure continues to fall this morning, now down to 959 millibars, or 28.32 inches. It should be noted the central pressure in Alex right now is more characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane and this could be indicative of a quick jump in intensity (wind-wise) over the next several hours.

A hurricane warning continues from the coast of Texas, south of Baffin Bay, to La Cruz, Mexico. Hurricane-force conditions are possible in these areas within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm warning is in effect along the coast from Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, Texas, southward along the coast of Mexico to Cabo Rojo.

Alex has become much better organized and more symmetrical over the past several hours with an eye now evident on microwave satellite imagery. Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm also noted a 10-mile-wide eye wall, albeit open to the northeast. As the eye wall of Alex continues to get better organized we expect winds to increase accordingly, and Alex should come close to, if not acquire, Category 2 status this afternoon. A gradual strengthening trend is expected from now until landfall as the storm passes over very warm water (mid-80s). The storm is moving through an area where there is very little wind shear, and it is expected to remain that way.

Alex moved generally westward overnight, slowing down for a time while gradually gaining strength, but now a more northward component has been noted over the past few hours. This motion is expected to continue throughout the day Wednesday. An upper-level ridge will become better established over the southern portion of the United States and help steer Alex on a west-northwest course. At this point, it appears most likely that Alex will make landfall 75-100 miles south of the Rio Grande River on Wednesday night within a few hours of midnight.

Alex has a fairly large circulation, however, so it will have far-reaching effects. In fact, the outermost rain bands from Alex are impacting coastal southern Texas as we speak. Coastal southern Texas will likely experience tropical storm conditions by this afternoon. If the current forecast track works out, hurricane conditions could also be felt for a time along coastal Cameron County and perhaps Willacy County in Texas later tonight. There will also be a storm surge of at least a few feet in this area. However, the greatest concern at this point is the potential for excessive rainfall over a large area of southern and even southeastern Texas. Not only will excessive rain fall over deep southern Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley region through tonight into Thursday, drenching thunderstorms are likely well to the north, perhaps even into coastal Louisiana. This will likely result in flooding problems well to the north of the storm track. A general 4-8 inches of rain, locally a foot, is expected across deep South Texas on Wednesday through Thursday.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are a few tropical waves, but any development through the Atlantic is not expected. There is an upper-level low east of the Bahamas, which absorbed a tropical wave over the last couple of days. While this feature will not likely develop further, it could bring some drenching thunderstorms to Florida by Thursday.
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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostFri Jul 23, 2010 1:40 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm "Bonnie" has reached significant strength so as to qualify as the season's 2nd named storm system, and like the first system is also headed toward the Gulf waters presently predicted to make land fall near Louisiana sometime this weekend. However; the storm is not presently predicted to increase in strength beyond a Tropical Storm, never the less we will be WATCHING...

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

quote:
Bonnie Approaching South Florida
Last Update: 23-JUL-2010 08:13am EDT

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near 24.7 north, 79.8 west, or approximately 80 miles south-southeast of Miami, Fla. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph, and Bonnie was moving west-northwest at 18 mph. The central pressure was 1008 mb, or 29.77 inches of mercury, unchanged over the last couple of hours.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, as well as for South Florida from Deerfield Beach on the east coast southward through the Florida Keys then northward on the west coast as far north as Englewood. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Tropical storm watches are also in effect for the northern Gulf Coast from Destin, Fla., to Morgan City, La.

Bonnie is expected to maintain its current intensity as it passes through the upper Florida Keys and far southern parts of Florida today. Tropical storm-force wind gusts are expected as far north as Boca Raton. Bonnie should weaken as it interacts with more land, before reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

Locally heavy rain and windy conditions will gradually diminish over the next few hours across the central Bahamas, and conditions will begin to improve later today across the northwestern Bahamas. Heavy rain squalls will move across South Florida, including the Keys, today. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will occur, with local amounts over 6 inches in places.

Once in the Gulf of Mexico, further slow strengthening may occur, though we believe at this time that this system will remain a tropical storm. This system will continue to move through the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to make landfall along the central or western Louisiana border on Sunday as a tropical storm. Heavy rain and gusty winds will buffet southern Louisiana during the day Sunday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, an area of low pressure over the western Bay of Campeche has become even less organized. This system is now moving ashore in northeastern Mexico and fall apart over the mountainous terrain today. Flooding rain will impact eastern Mexico through this weekend with this system. Some places impacted by heavy rainfall from Alex and Tropical Depression 2 could experience more flooding issues and mountainous areas of eastern Mexico could experience life-threatening mudslides. Rainfall from this system could work into the already swollen Rio Grande, creating more flooding issues for deep South Texas.

Tropical waves along 32 west and 51 west remain disorganized and show no signs of development at this time.

Updated by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer
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