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Chems heavier in east or west?

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Lulu





Joined: 22 Dec 2000
Posts: 2501
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PostTue Jan 21, 2003 5:46 am  Reply with quote  

Taken in morning--I have more pics with sun coming up and the sky is a mess.

Perhaps bjb would so kindly upload more for all to see (; how it is...in the West ?

[Edited 1 times, lastly by Lulu on 01-21-2003]
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Feelin Kocky





Joined: 07 Jan 2003
Posts: 537
Location: Underground Weather Control Bunker
PostTue Jan 21, 2003 6:05 am  Reply with quote  

quote:
Originally posted by Lulu:
>>looked marginal<<

Can you post the data FK ? Thanks.



No I can't post the data (legality issue). However, you can look at the upper air plots at:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=030118&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=All

To the layperson, this probably does not help much. One tool you can use everyday is the water vapor satellite images. The water vapor that you are looking at is centered around 400mb and can give you some really good clues as to whether or not the atmospere contains good deep moisture.

Like I said, the west coast is tuff.
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Lulu





Joined: 22 Dec 2000
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PostTue Jan 21, 2003 6:21 am  Reply with quote  

Is the fact that it's taken in the morning significant FK?

Based on your expert opinion does this jive?

Are you satisfied nothing funny's going on?
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Feelin Kocky





Joined: 07 Jan 2003
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PostTue Jan 21, 2003 6:45 am  Reply with quote  

quote:
Originally posted by Lulu:
Is the fact that it's taken in the morning significant FK?

Based on your expert opinion does this jive?

Are you satisfied nothing funny's going on?



Well, I assumed it was afternoon but I don't think it mattered all that much.

Based on what I've looked at, I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that these were normal contrails. What would help me is if I can get a report/pics within 12/18 hours of the occurrance. Our database purges data after about 18hrs and we start to lose too much helpful stuff. If I PM my email address to, you could directly send the pics to me. However, you have to promise not to distrubte my email.

Let me know,

F.K.

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Lulu





Joined: 22 Dec 2000
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PostTue Jan 21, 2003 1:17 pm  Reply with quote  

Yeah that would work FK--PM away.

Wilco on the non-distribution--goes without saying.
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Lulu





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PostWed Jan 22, 2003 12:40 am  Reply with quote  

Good Morning America


bjb

quote:
Now posted on Rense.com

From Bobbie Bonnickson
1-20-3

Saturday, January 18 we were driving from just north of Vancouver, Wa through Portland, Or. at approximately 8:30 am. We were on our way to a wedding, so we happened to have a camera on board. As soon as we departed, we were astounded by the massive number of chemtrails across the ENTIRE sky, in all directions. We snapped a few shots, most of which were taken while moving from inside the car. The photos do not convey the extent to which the trails covered every part of the sky, from the west to the east horizons. We have been actively observing chemtrails for years and this is certainly one of the most dramatic and heavy examples we have ever seen. I wish the photos could convey the overwhelming sight of the entire sky being covered in these trails, obviously laid out systematically over the Portland metro area. As we passed through Portland and on toward Eugene, Or and looked back towards Portland, most of the trails appeared to stop abruptly just north of the Portland/Vancouver area.


And a very good question you ask Bobbie.

quote:
These were taken Jan 18 2003 (Saturday) at 8:30 AM looking east, southeast, and southwest, from NW Portland suburbs. Wonder if it had something to do with the peace rally?


http://www.rense.com/general33/morechh.htm

Unbelievable pictures Bobbie!!!

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Feelin Kocky





Joined: 07 Jan 2003
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PostWed Jan 22, 2003 1:31 am  Reply with quote  

Up around Vancouver looked pretty favorable for contrail development on the 18th based on what I looked at yesterday evening. It was a little more ambiguous further south because of a lack of data.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by Feelin Kocky on 01-21-2003]
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canex





Joined: 26 Oct 2000
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PostWed Jan 22, 2003 3:47 am  Reply with quote  

12Z sounding on the 18th at Port Hardy (north of Vancouver) shows relative humidities between 9300 m and 12000 m were around 60%. Accounting for the dry bias and the difference between relative humidty with respect to ice and that with respect to water (the reported value) puts the relative humidity above ice saturation. Send in some planes and you get hefty persistent contrails like those in the pictures. Should have cleared out some by evening. Maybe a few between 10500 m and 11700 m.
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canex





Joined: 26 Oct 2000
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PostWed Jan 22, 2003 3:53 am  Reply with quote  

Late afternoon sounding on the 18th at Salem Oregon has relative humidities between 50 and 60% between 9400 and 13000 m. Again, good conditions for fat contrails.
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Lulu





Joined: 22 Dec 2000
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PostWed Jan 22, 2003 4:51 am  Reply with quote  

Do you have a link to your RH readings canex? Thanks.
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Feelin Kocky





Joined: 07 Jan 2003
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PostWed Jan 22, 2003 7:29 am  Reply with quote  

canex are you refering to rawinsonde, GOES, or model derived soundings?

[Edited 1 times, lastly by Feelin Kocky on 01-22-2003]
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Lulu





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PostThu Jan 23, 2003 2:38 pm  Reply with quote  

>>most of the trails appeared to stop abruptly just north of the Portland/Vancouver area.<<

canex or FK could you explain the abrupt ending of trails...thanks.

Weather for later in the evening on the 18th

"That night a fog rolled in &
the next morning was misty with very low cloud cover."

The reason I ask about the RH readings canex is that I was under the impression these readings mean squat when predicting if trails will persist or not.

quote:
Wild Bill says:

Well, there simply aren't enough data points anyway, even if they were accurate enough. You simply can't look at the ADDS modeling and then claim that what's over your head isn't a contrail.


http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/projects/adds/forum/?read=581

quote:
Wild Bill asks:
How accurate is the Rh data with the flight path tool? We have a group of folks using that data to claim that contrails cannot form over an area, and therefore what they see (contrails) are not actually contrails, but a sprayed substance.

http://pub31.ezboard.com/fcontrailsandchemtrails22884frm1.showMessage?topicID=1110.top ic

quote:
D. Rodgers responds:
The RH field is a model-produced (and therefore smoothed) field based on observed data. It is not sufficient to determine whether contrails will form or persist. Other factors are involved, such as vertical motion.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/projects/adds/forum/?read=582

canex could you address the vertical motion? and why RH readings are so unreliable? and what data is reliable for determining persisting trails? thanks again canex and FK.




[Edited 1 times, lastly by Lulu on 01-23-2003]
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Feelin Kocky





Joined: 07 Jan 2003
Posts: 537
Location: Underground Weather Control Bunker
PostThu Jan 23, 2003 5:34 pm  Reply with quote  

"canex or FK could you explain the abrupt ending of trails...thanks."

My recolection is that the west coast was near or just east of an upper level ridge. To the east of a ridge, there is general downward moition which would dry the atmosphere. If you ever get a chance to look at an IR or WV satellite loop (try this link: [url=http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/sat/)]http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/sat/)[/url] you should see clouds disipate east of the ridge axis.

" "That night a fog rolled in &
the next morning was misty with very low cloud cover." "

The weather at the surface does't generally directly coorispond to what is going on at 35K ft.


"canex could you address the vertical motion? and why RH readings are so unreliable? and what data is reliable for determining persisting trails? thanks again canex and FK."

RH readings are not necessarily inaccurate. A dewpoint measurement + or - a couple of degrees C is not so bad. However, when computing RH when the temp is -45C a small error in dewpoint means a larger error in RH. This error gets worse the colder it is. This is why, I think, we sometimes see contrails when the atmospheric conditions are measured as "marginal" or "not favorable."

Also, the troposphere can have numerous thin layers. Some are moist and some not. So you could see one aircraft fly over with no contrail and another, at a slightly different altitude, produce contrails.

F.K.

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Lulu





Joined: 22 Dec 2000
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PostFri Jan 24, 2003 12:02 am  Reply with quote  

>>That night a fog rolled in &
the next morning was misty with very low cloud cover.<<
canex was wondering >>"Should have cleared out some by evening."<< FK--I realize weather at the earth's surface does not affect contrails.

>>RH readings are not necessarily inaccurate.<<

Well, apparently they are so I no longer consult them FK.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by Lulu on 01-23-2003]
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theseeker





Joined: 25 Jul 2000
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Location: Damnit...I'm a doctor jim
PostFri Jan 24, 2003 12:25 am  Reply with quote  

I have noticed quite often that contrails were forming in areas that were orange on the ADDS display, and canex can correct me if I'm wrong here but even rh in the 25 to 50% level may not usually form natural clouds...but rh levels of contrails can be as high as 150% with respect to ice, meaning to me that formation and persistence of cirrus is possible with the aid of a few jets passing by...in an otherwise blue, cloud free sky....

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