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2011 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostFri Sep 02, 2011 2:37 pm  Reply with quote  

"Katia" has slowed down somewhat overnight & lost its Hurricane classification temporarily. It is forecast to re-intensify and potentially reach Major Hurricane classification. Present Navy track maps point the system toward the Bermuda triangle area, although the experts models suggest it will turn more to the north away from U.S. shores as it progresses due to opposing forces emerging of the continental U.S.
Meanwhile in the Gulf waters a second system is at work and headed to the southern U.S. Gulf states, & whether or not this systems develops into a tropical system or hurricane, it is promising to deliver excessive rain totals to the region which are predicted to cause wide spread floods over the south states.
There is also another system being monitored in the northern Atlantic waters off Nova Scotia which is also showing signs of organization.
A triple play in action this season, reminiscent of the season in 2001 around this same time in September.........
Hmmmmmmmmmmm

quote:

FLASH BACK!
September 11, 2001
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sat_ir/0109/01091112.gif



TODAY...
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash








http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

T.S. Katia Still Close to Hurricane Force; Tropical Depression 13 Spreads Heavy Rain onto Gulf Coast

Sep 2, 2011 9:06 AM

Katia is still a tropical storm with sustained winds at 70 mph; restrengthening back to hurricane status is anticipated later today or this evening. An upper-level trough to the northwest of the system has spread enough wind shear across Katia to cause it to weaken over the last 24 hours or so. However, the influence of this upper-level trough and its shear on Katia will diminish later today and tonight, allowing the system to regain hurricane status. As Katia continues to track west-northwest this weekend, the system will likely strengthen to a major hurricane as it passes over warm water. Katia should eventually make a more northward turn sometime next week as it moves around the western periphery of a large ridge of high pressure currently to the north of the system. An upper-level trough moving across the eastern United States by the middle of next week should steer Katia to the east of the United States. However, Katia may pass close to Bermuda during the middle of next week and may eventually threaten Atlantic Canada with rain and wind by late next week.

Although Katia will have no direct impact on land over the next few days, the storm will send swells and rough surf to north- and east-facing shores of the Lesser Antilles today. Eventually, the rough surf and higher swells from Katia will impact the East Coast of the United States, perhaps even by the end of the Labor Day weekend.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 13 continues to drift slowly northwestward in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The depression is producing sustained winds close to 35 mph, mainly over the northern Gulf. Strong westerly winds in the upper atmosphere continue to hinder the development of Tropical Depression 13 as nearly all the thunderstorms continue to be displaced to the east of the low-level center of circulation. Despite the fact the depression is over very warm waters in the Gulf right now, it cannot fully take advantage of this fuel to strengthen due to this wind shear. However, wind shear across the system should relax later today and tonight, allowing the depression to strengthen into what would become a tropical storm named Lee.

The steering flow guiding the system right now is very weak, as it is being drawn slowly northward by a split in the upper-level high centered to its north. Most computer forecast models draw the system slowly northward through the weekend, with a landfall along the Louisiana coast Sunday night, and then eventually turn and accelerate it to the east-northeast by Monday and Tuesday. However, given the fact the system is still poorly organized and the steering flow is weak, the forecast models will have a difficult time establishing a forecast track. Therefore, all interests along the Gulf Coast need to keep a careful watch on this system through the Labor Day weekend.

No matter what the exact track of the center of the depression turns out to be, deep Gulf moisture will be flowing northward into the Gulf Coast states today through this holiday weekend and beyond. The copious amounts of moisture coming northward combined with the extremely slow movement of Tropical Depression 13 will cause widespread and serious flooding across the central Gulf Coast. Some areas along the central Gulf Coast may receive as much as 20 inches of rainfall over the next several days, and New Orleans will be threatened by at least 10 inches of rain and flooding over the next few days as well. Eventually, this deep tropical moisture may be pulled northward into the Tennessee Valley, and perhaps as far north as the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley as well, by the middle of next week. This could spread the threat of flooding even farther north.

Finally, we are monitoring an area of low pressure currently around 400 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Satellite imagery shows that showers and thunderstorms associated with this low pressure area have become better organized over the last 12 hours or so. However, if this low pressure area were to develop into a depression or tropical storm, it must do so within the next 18-24 hours. Beyond 24 hours from now, this low will quickly move northeastward into waters much too cool to support tropical development. This system should pass just to the south and southeast of Newfoundland Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Elsewhere, there are no imminent threats for tropical development across the basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





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Posts: 1583
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PostSat Sep 03, 2011 2:48 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Katia" is presently maintaining CAT 1 classification and experts suggest it may reach Major classification as it moves westerly into more favorable conditions. It is not yet certain if it will reach the U.S. directly as there is not yet enough data for expert computer models to forecast a reliable outcome presently. Navy track maps plot a course directly into the heart of the Bermuda triangle, but weather experts expect the system to shift to the north before reaching U.S. shores.
The system down in the Gulf has qualified & been given the name "Lee". This Tropical Storm is prepared to lash the southern Gulf states presently taking aim at Louisiana, but promising to deliver extreme amounts of rain, predictions of up to 20 inches in some areas which will cause excessive flooding.
HEADS UP! The track map for "Lee" is all over the place they don't know what this system is going to do...







http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Lee Nearing the Louisiana Coast; Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic

Sep 3, 2011 8:50 AM

Hurricane Katia continues to move northwestward across the central Atlantic and has sustained winds of 75 mph. Katia is located approximately 530 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The hurricane is fighting through wind shear caused by an upper-level trough located to the west and northwest of Katia. The upper-level trough should gradually shift north and get out of the way of Katia today and tomorrow, so the hurricane should gain more strength and could become a major hurricane next week.

Katia should eventually make a more northward turn sometime next week as it moves around the western periphery of a large ridge of high pressure currently to the north and northeast of the system. An upper-level trough moving across the eastern United States by the middle of next week should steer Katia to the east of the United States, but the hurricane could pass between the East Coast and Bermuda. There has been a trend farther west in the global computer models over the last 24 hours, so all interests along the East Coast and in Bermuda should monitor Katia.

Although Katia will have no direct impact on land over the next few days, the storm will send swells and rough surf to north- and east-facing shores of the Lesser Antilles through the weekend. Eventually, the rough surf and higher swells from Katia will impact the East Coast of the United States, perhaps even by the end of the Labor Day weekend.

Tropical Storm Lee continues to near the Louisiana coast and the center of the system is now just 15 miles south-southeast of Intracoastal City, La. Strong winds aloft continue to keep most of the thunderstorms displaced east and north of the center of this system. However, current satellite imagery shows some thunderstorms attempting to wrap around the western side of the system. This may be a sign that the winds aloft are lessening and allowing Lee to strengthen a bit. As a matter of fact, sustained winds have now increased to 60 mph as of Saturday morning.

The exact track and movement of Lee makes for a tricky forecast for today and Sunday. The center is nearing land right now as it is only 15 miles offshore of Intracoastal City. Thus, a landfall of Lee during the midday or early afternoon hours of Saturday is possible. However, the center of the system may make a landfall and then stall along the coast of Louisiana over the next 24 to 36 hours before it resumes a more northeastward movement again. There are also some indications Lee may try to make a loop back out into the Gulf and then make a second Louisiana landfall later in the holiday weekend. Either way, the exact track of the center does not matter in terms of the effects of the system on the Gulf Coast. Since the storm is slow moving, areas north and east of the center will continue to be hammered with flooding rainfall through the weekend.

Coastal areas of Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana should receive 10-20 inches of rain through Sunday. Some locations could get more than 20 inches due to the slow movement of Lee. Rainfall amounts could approach those of Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, which brought over 20 inches of rain to parts of Texas. Heavy rain and flooding will spread north across northern Mississippi this weekend. Therefore, all interests along the Gulf Coast from extreme East Texas to the Florida Panhandle and north across the lower Mississippi Valley need to keep a careful watch on this system through the Labor Day weekend.

A strong upper-level trough associated with a strong cold front trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early next week helping to steer Lee or its remnant low on a faster track to the northeast across the Deep South. Both the latest GFS and European global models support this solution. This will cause heavy flooding rain to spread north and east across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and into the southern and central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region. By the middle of next week, the leftover moisture associated with Lee may make it as far north as the New England states.

Elsewhere, an area of low pressure we have been monitoring south of Nova Scotia has dissipated and poses no tropical threat. There are no other signs of tropical development across the basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller and updated by Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





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PostTue Sep 06, 2011 1:45 am  Reply with quote  

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starman1





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PostTue Sep 06, 2011 3:23 pm  Reply with quote  

Major Hurricane "Katia" is holding a CAT 3 classification but is still forecast to miss the East Coast turning back toward the north & east away from U.S. shores.........
Watching!!!
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starman1





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PostWed Sep 07, 2011 2:29 pm  Reply with quote  

As "Katia" nears entering the Bermuda triangle she is still forecast to turn away from the U.S.....

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash
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starman1





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PostFri Sep 09, 2011 2:28 am  Reply with quote  

"Katia" is still a Hurricane and it is now joined by two new storms qualifying for names this season first "Maria" holding Tropical Storm classification with wind speeds of about 40+ mph & Tropical Storm "Nate" which is nearing hurricane speeds at about 70+ mph presently...

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starman1





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PostFri Sep 09, 2011 1:58 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Katia" has cleared Bermuda and is heading to the north & east away from the U.S.
Tropical Storm "Nate" is nearing hurricane classification & is presently hovering on the east side of the Bay of Campeche. Experts expect this system to achieve hurricane status shortly and predict it will move into Mexico and not head north in the Gulf toward the U.S.
"Maria" is still holding as a tropical storm with wind speeds above 40+ mph. This system is also forecast to strengthen and its projected track presently predicts a northerly direction east of the Caribbean Islands.
Continuing the WATCH!











http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Katia Moving Away From Bermuda; Maria Nearing the Lesser Antilles; Nate Remaining Nearly Stationary

Sep 9, 2011 6:21 AM

Hurricane Katia is located around 400 miles north-northwest of Bermuda and its forward speed has accelerated to nearly 25 mph as it moves off to the northeast rather quickly. Although Katia is moving away from the east coast of the United States today, rough surf and rip currents will continue over the next couple of days from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to New England. Katia remains a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph. Katia will maintain is hurricane strength until Saturday morning as it will track over waters just warm enough to maintain tropical systems over the next 24 hours. In addition, Katia is moving away from the stronger shear that was affecting the storm yesterday. Beyond Saturday morning, Katia will then move northeastward into cooler waters and a zone of higher wind shear as it becomes more embedded in the westerlies. Katia will then transition to a powerful post-tropical storm over the weekend and will bring a round of heavy rain and gusty winds to the British Isles on Monday.

Tropical Storm Maria remains a tropical storm on Friday morning with sustained winds of 40 mph. Satellite imagery shows that although some deep thunderstorms have developed over the last 6-12 hours, they are nearly all to the north and northeast of the center of Maria. The fast-forward motion of Maria combined with some strong southwesterly winds aloft are keeping Maria from becoming better organized at this time. However, Maria will have the opportunity to maintain its strength and perhaps slowly strengthen over the weekend as it moves into a zone of less wind shear. However, if Maria does become a hurricane, it will likely not be until early next week. In the meantime, Maria will bring gusty winds and squalls of heavy rain starting this morning to the Lesser Antilles. Eventually by Saturday night into Sunday, these squalls of wind and rain will spread all the way westward into Puerto Rico.

Maria is expected to eventually make a more northward turn later this weekend into early next week as forecast computer models show a weakening upper-level high pressure ridge to the north. However, there is also some concern the forecast models could be turning Maria too far north too quickly as the storm still has a considerable amount of westward momentum since it is moving nearly due west at around 20 mph.

Tropical Storm Nate remains nearly stationary over the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 70 mph. Computer forecast models have come into better agreement on Friday morning with respect to the track of Nate. The storm should remain nearly stationary over the next 12 hours or so and then a strengthening upper-level high pressure ridge building over the northern Gulf of Mexico will push Nate westward. This upper-level ridge should prevent Nate from moving northward into the Gulf and instead will force it westward into Mexico with a landfall likely between Tampico and Veracruz. In fact, forecast models continue to trend southward so landfall near Veracruz may be more likely than near Tampico. The farther south Nate remains, the quicker landfall would be as there would be less distance across the Bay of Campeche for the storm to cover. A quicker landfall could also keep Nate from strengthening as much, but it is still likely to become a hurricane later today as it is over warm water with weak winds aloft. Several inches of rain will continue to affect the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco and Veracruz.

Elsewhere, there are no immediate threats for tropical development in the basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





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PostSat Sep 10, 2011 2:32 pm  Reply with quote  

"Katia" is maintaining Hurricane strength as it moves away from the U.S. & Canada in a hurry, presently traveling at a reported 44mph still maintaining a CAT 1 classification with winds gusting up to a reported 100 mph. It is forecast to lose some intensity as it heads toward the U.K.
"Maria" is still forecast to turn away from the U.S.
"Nate" has not reached hurricane strength and is still forecast to move into Mexico near "Veracruz"...







http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather


quote:

Hurricane Katia Speeding Away, Nate Heading Slowly to Mexico, Maria in the Leeward Islands

Sep 10, 2011 5:30 AM

Hurricane Katia continues to race northeastward over the open waters of the North Atlantic, well away from Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. Katia's forward speed has accelerated to nearly 44 mph and it is expected to speed up further the next day as it head to the northern United Kingdom. Katia remains a Category 1 hurricane with a very expansive wind field. Katia will maintain its hurricane strength through this morning before the storm shifts into cooler waters and a zone of higher wind shear. Katia will then transition to a powerful post-tropical storm later today and will bring a round of heavy rain and gusty winds to the British Isles on Monday.

Tropical Storm Maria continues to track just north of west with sustained winds of around 45 mph. Satellite imagery continues to show deep thunderstorms located to the north and northeast of the center of circulation. The fast-forward motion of Maria combined with some strong winds aloft are keeping the storm from becoming better organized at this time. However, Maria will have the opportunity to maintain its strength and perhaps slowly strengthen over the weekend as it moves into a zone of less wind shear. In the meantime, Maria will bring gusty winds and squalls of heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles through Saturday. Eventually, by Saturday night into Sunday, these squalls of wind and rain will spread westward into Puerto Rico.

Maria is expected to make a more northward turn later this weekend into early next week as forecast computer models show a weakening upper-level high pressure ridge to the north. However, there is also some concern the forecast models could be turning Maria too far north too quickly as the storm still has a considerable amount of westward momentum since it is moving nearly due west at around 12 mph. Though since the storm is still weak, it will be more easily influenced the surrounding storm systems. There is good agreement that this storm will easily pass to the east of the U.S. mainland.

Tropical Storm Nate is moving slowly westward over the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery continues to show a very well-organized cloud pattern; however, dry air still manages to inhibit convection and therefore strengthening. Computer forecast models have come into better agreement with respect to the track of Nate. The storm should just drift toward the west over the next 12 hours or so then a strengthening upper-level high pressure ridge building over the northern Gulf of Mexico will push Nate westward at a faster speed. This upper-level ridge should prevent Nate from moving northward into the Gulf and instead will force it westward into Mexico with a landfall likely between Tampico and Veracruz. In fact, forecast models continue to trend southward so landfall near Veracruz may be more likely than near Tampico. The farther south Nate remains, the quicker landfall would be as there would be less distance across the Bay of Campeche for the storm to cover. A quicker landfall could also keep Nate from strengthening as much, but it is still possible that it approaches hurricane strength later Saturday or Sunday as it is over warm water with weak winds aloft. Several inches of rain will continue to affect the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco and Veracruz into the weekend.

Elsewhere, there are no immediate threats for tropical development in the basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde
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starman1





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PostTue Sep 13, 2011 2:47 pm  Reply with quote  

"Maria" is presently rated a Tropical Storm. The system is being disassembled as it moves through less than favorable atmospheric conditions in it's path. The bulk of the storm is forecast to pass west of Bermuda & then to the north turning away from U.S. shores into the north Atlantic as less than a hurricane...
Still at the watch.........

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:


Maria Continues to Crawl North of Puerto Rico

Sep 13, 2011 5:36 AM

Tropical Storm Maria is still moving very slowly, only around 5 mph, north of Puerto Rico early Tuesday morning. The storm is being sheared apart thanks to an upper-level trough in place to the northwest of the storm. The center of circulation therefore, is well to the west of the main convection. Some bands of convection will still affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this morning, but will die down as the storm starts to push more to the north.

Maria will push farther north as the day goes on, and will eventually gain some strength as the upper-level trough weakens and shear decreases. Despite this break in shear, Maria will not likely get any stronger than a tropical storm as the week goes on. This is due to consistent, mild shear in place, as well as the storm moving over cooler waters later this week. The storm will push north midweek as the high to the east and upper-level trough to the west do not shift much. The track will take the storm between the East Coast and Bermuda before pushing well north south of Nova Scotia. The main impacts from Maria will be rough surf and the increased threat for rip currents along the East Coast. Also, the outer bands of Maria may bring gusty showers to Bermuda tomorrow night into Thursday. Maria will eventually be picked up by the trough in the eastern U.S. and will race into the northern Atlantic.

In the longer range, a cold front will swing across the East Coast late this week. The tail of this front will stall off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday and Saturday. Many global computer forecast models are hinting that an area of low pressure may try to form along this front by the weekend or early next week and it is possible this low could become tropical as it will be over warm waters. It is much too early to tell if this low will develop and what its track would be, but it will be an area we need to monitor later this week for potential development.

Elsewhere, the are no areas of interest for potential tropical development in the Atlantic Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Don Pillittere

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starman1





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PostWed Sep 14, 2011 2:27 pm  Reply with quote  

No real significant changes with regard to "Maria's" storm status, in that, it will most likely remain a tropical system and not a hurricane as it passes near Bermuda heading to the north in the Atlantic.
Still we watch...........

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash
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starman1





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PostFri Sep 16, 2011 1:58 pm  Reply with quote  

"Maria" was able to achieve Hurricane status after all, & it is presently being clocked at a CAT 1 moving northeast at a rapid 45 mph headed for Newfoundland & Greenland...
This storm system was not expected nor predicted to reach Hurricane status by the experts & their computer models as was stated in their previous reports quoted on 9/13/11, "Maria will not likely get any stronger than a tropical storm as the week goes on. This is due to consistent, mild shear in place, as well as the storm moving over cooler waters later this week." Definitely not an exact science...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Heavy Rain and Strong Winds across Newfoundland Today from Maria

Sep 16, 2011 6:02 AM

Hurricane Maria continues to move rapidly off to the northeast around 45 mph and its center is now less than 500 miles to the southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Maria will continue this general motion and speed over the next 12 to 24 hours as it eventually becomes extratropical and is absorbed into a cold front approaching from its west.

Although Maria is now beginning to move into cooler waters and satellite imagery shows thunderstorms associated with Maria starting to wane, Maria will still bring sustained tropical storm-force winds with some hurricane force gusts later today across southeastern Newfoundland, especially across the Avalon Peninsula. This is due to the fact that Maria is moving so rapidly, and this rapid movement off to the northeast is helping to maintain the wind flow around the hurricane, even as it moves into cooler waters and begins its transition to an extratropical storm.

The center of Maria will cross over the Avalon Peninsula early Friday afternoon, which will be the first official landfall for this system. However, weather conditions will quickly deteriorate Friday morning across Newfoundland with increasing wind and rain. The worst of the weather will occur during the midday and afternoon hours across the Avalon Peninsula with St. John's getting winds of 50-70 mph and areas near the coast such as Cape Race will contend with some hurricane-force wind gusts. In addition, rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will occur across much of Newfoundland today with higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible along the Avalon Peninsula.

Conditions should improve across Newfoundland quickly later this evening and tonight as the extratropical system weakens and moves towards the southern tip of Greenland by Saturday morning. However, gusty southwest winds will continue Friday night across Newfoundland even well after the rain associated with Maria has come to an end.

Aside from Maria, there are no named systems in the Atlantic, and no immediate threats for tropical development over the next 24 hours. However, we are monitoring a couple of areas in the longer range beyond the next 24 hours that may show signs of tropical development.

The first of these areas is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that stretches off the African coast into the eastern Atlantic. Most of this activity is south of the Cape Verde Islands and shows no signs of organization at this time. However, a more coherent area of thunderstorms may emerge from this area early next week.

The other area to monitor this weekend will be off the Carolina coastline. A cold front will stall out and sit off the coast of the Carolinas today through the weekend. Forecast computer models continue to indicate that an area of low pressure will try to spin up at some point late Saturday or Sunday morning along this stalled frontal boundary. Since this low will be developing over warm waters and fairly low wind shear, it is certainly possible the low could acquire tropical characteristics. However, any low that does develop would likely do so east of Cape Hatteras then track northwestward away from the United States. This track would also keep this low center well to the northwest of Bermuda.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





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PostWed Sep 21, 2011 2:24 pm  Reply with quote  

The next system to be named in the Atlantic has formed and is now known as "Ophelia". This system is presently holding Tropical Storm classification and is slowly moving toward the Caribbean Islands. It is not presently considered a threat to the U.S. as current computer models suggest it will track well east of our coastlines. We'll be watchin...
Also, a system appears to be gathering steam west of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific waters that has not yet achieved Tropical Storm status, but experts suggest it may soon become a Hurricane.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/east/latest_east_vis_fd.gif


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Tropical Storm Ophelia Pushing West

Sep 21, 2011 5:46 AM

Tropical Storm Ophelia is continuing to push westward around 13 mph early on Wednesday morning and is still approximately 1,370 miles east of the Leeward Islands. While still rather unorganized, showers and thunderstorms are very numerous with this system. Persistent shear aloft will prevent the system from strengthening before it eventually makes it into the Leeward Islands. While shear is in place, it will not be strong enough to tear the storm apart. Ophelia will likely remain a tropical storm throughout its track through the Atlantic, and at times, may strengthen briefly.

Computer models forecast Ophelia to track north of Hispaniola early next week, then tracking east of the Bahamas. Eventually, models show Ophelia tracking near Bermuda during the middle of next week. Nonetheless, heavy flooding rain and gusty winds will affect parts of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend. Timing is still a bit uncertain as the system hasn't progressed all that much in the last few hours. Interests in the Caribbean, especially the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should pay close attention to the progression of Tropical Storm Ophelia in the coming days. In the meantime, no models at this current time suggest a threat to the mainland of the United States, so the only real affect Ophelia will have is higher-than-average surf along the East Coast.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is an area of low pressure still pushing west, about 230 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Despite the shear, this low is producing some showers and thunderstorms while remaining somewhat organized. This low will likely push through the Leeward Islands today and tonight.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the time being with no other organized systems.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Don Pillittere
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starman1





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PostThu Sep 22, 2011 2:23 pm  Reply with quote  

The system forming in the East Pacific waters off the coast of Mexico has achieved Tropical Storm status and been given the name "Hilary". This storm is expected to become a Hurricane but it is not expected to make direct landfall as it is projected to stay west off the coast of Mexico. It is predicted to deliver large amounts of rain to some coastal areas as it skirts the coast with its tropical bands...










In the Atlantic, "Ophelia" is maintaining Tropical Storm classification as it moves westerly toward the Caribbean, but it is not expected to make an impact there as it is predicted to turn more northerly toward the Bahamas. This system is presently not expected to gain too much strength as it currently faces unfavorable atmospheric conditions in it's projected path.
Still we will watch.....





http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Hilary Nearly at Hurricane Strength, Begins to Lash the Mexican Coast

Sep 22, 2011 5:32 AM

Tropical Storm Hilary continues to strengthen early this morning as it moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico, and later this morning or early this afternoon, Hilary should become the seventh hurricane of the season. Hilary is only about 100 miles offshore, so even though we currently do not expect Hilary to make landfall it will have a considerable impact as it moves roughly parallel to the Mexican coast. Our forecast takes Hilary to the west-northwest while gaining strength and eventually moving away from Mexico late Saturday.

Bands of rain and gusty winds will batter the coast this morning and well into the afternoon and evening from Laguna de Chacahua on northwest. Areas from Lagunas de Chacahua to Ciudad Lazaro Cardenas, including Acapulco, could endure tropical storm-force winds and periods of heavy rain for twelve hours or more as the storm rakes the coast. Rainfall amounts when all is said an done could exceed 8 inches in some areas through early Friday, making flash flooding a concern. This is especially true across the higher ground near Acapulco where topography will enhance the rains. Any deviation in the track of Ophelia could have a significant impact on the expected winds and rainfall, so while we do not forecast hurricane conditions on the coast at this time that is subject to change.

Areas farther up the coast, such as Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, should see some impact beginning Friday afternoon and persisting into Saturday. The degree of impact is unclear at this time, but there is a decent bet that bands of rainfall and gusty winds will come ashore through early Saturday. Regardless, Hilary should pull away from the Mexican coast late on Saturday and slowly begin to weaken, no longer a threat to any landmasses.

The rest of the Eastern Pacific Basin is relatively quiet.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins

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starman1





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PostFri Sep 23, 2011 1:48 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Hilary" has in less than 24 hours raced from a Tropical Storm to a Major Hurricane presently reported holding CAT 4 classification but nearing CAT 5 intensity as it moves along the Mexican coast line. The storm isn't a massive system but it is an intense one, though it isn't expected to make any landfall...






http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather
quote:

Hurricane Hilary Approaching Category 5 Strength

Sep 23, 2011 6:01 AM

Hurricane Hilary has continued to rapidly intensify overnight and as is a powerful Category 4 system this morning south of the Mexican coastline. One thing that is immediately evident on satellite imagery with this system is how compact it is.

Hurricane-force winds extend out no farther than 30 miles from the center with tropical storm-force winds only as far as 80 miles from the center. Given the small nature of this system Mexico has been minimally impacted considering there is a Category 4 hurricane roughly 100 miles offshore. Hilary will continue to track roughly parallel to the Mexican coast and gradually push away late Saturday. This will keep the strongest winds well offshore with a few rain bands continuing to impact the coast. Winds in these rain bands may gust to near 35 mph, but that's about it, fortunately.

Hilary may strengthen a little more this morning as shear remains low and waters are plenty warm. Interestingly enough the latest satellite intensity estimate already places Hilary as a Category 5 hurricane and forecasts it to remain at this state for the next 24 hours. That's unlikely as storms of this magnitude typically fluctuate in intensity, many of which fail to regain their peak strength. So for now we'll assume that the storm will have a small window (say the next 12-18 hours) to become a Category 5 storm with gradual weakening expected beginning Saturday.

Impacts farther downstream are unclear as some model guidance indicates that Hilary will move well to the west and slowly dissipate while other guidance suggests that the remnants of Hilary will recurve and end up in the southwestern U.S. That scenario seems unlikely at this point, but be aware that this is a possibility. In any event Hilary should pose little risk to any landmasses as a major hurricane.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins




In the Atlantic, "Ophelia" appears to be losing organization & momentum as it is being reported to be being sheared apart.

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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Location: Earth
PostSat Sep 24, 2011 2:32 pm  Reply with quote  

"Hurricane Hilary" is still holding at a CAT 4 Major Hurricane classification, although it is still projected to stay off shore and away from the coast of Mexico. This system is extremely powerful but a relatively quite compact sized storm for a Major class Hurricane.




http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Hilary Remains Quite Powerful

Sep 24, 2011 6:31 AM

Hurricane Hilary is a powerful Category 4 system about 145 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. One characteristic that is immediately evident on satellite imagery with this system is how compact it is.

Hurricane-force winds extend out no farther than 30 miles from the center with tropical storm-force winds only as far as 80-85 miles from the center, so that means the Mexican coast will escape any sustained strong winds. The hurricane will continue to track westward away from the Mexican coastline. This will keep the strongest winds well offshore with a few heavy rainbands continuing to impact the coast. Winds in these rainbands may gust to near 35 mph, but that's about it, fortunately.

As Hilary encounters cooler waters on Saturday, a gradual weakening will begin.

Impacts farther downstream are unclear, as some model guidance indicates that Hilary will move well to the west and slowly dissipate while other guidance suggests that the remnants of Hilary will re-curve north across Baja California and end up in the southwestern U.S. In any event, Hilary should pose little risk to any land masses as a major hurricane.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller




Out in the Atlantic, "Ophelia" is still being held at bay battling opposing atmospheric forces that are keeping it from forming further strength, and are pushing it away from U.S. shores.....

Here is the view from above...........

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