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2011 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





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Posts: 1583
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PostTue Sep 27, 2011 2:17 pm  Reply with quote  

"Hilary" is still holding at CAT 3 hurricane classification out in the East Pacific, but is presently no threat to any land areas.



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Hurricane Hilary is West of Mexico

Sep 27, 2011 6:29 AM

Hilary remains a major hurricane on Tuesday morning centered about 575 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The system remains very compact in size with a small radius of hurricane-force winds. At this point, Hilary will not pose any threat to land throughout today.

While there is still some model disagreement, Hilary looks to re-curve and eventually head north toward Baja California while interacting with an upper-level low. Cooler waters and increasing wind shear should take its toll on Hilary through the middle and end of the week, causing gradual weakening. Therefore, the biggest impact to Baja California, northwestern Mexico and parts of the southwestern U.S. will be an increase in moisture and humidity by the weekend. This could lead to more intense widespread shower and thunderstorm activity throughout this region.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Brian Edwards and Rob Richards



"Ophelia" has been quite diminished down to a remnant low over the last few days as it has been disseminated east of the Caribbean, however; this system may quite well regenerate back into a Tropical Storm soon according to expert computer models guesses.







Adding to the mix, a new system has formed and qualified to be named "Philippe". This storm is presently holding Tropical Storm status well off the west coast of Africa, and is expected to remain out in the open Atlantic...


.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Tropical Storm Philippe; the Remnants of Ophelia

Sep 27, 2011 6:27 AM

While Ophelia is a remnant low, the leftover clouds and moisture could bring some heavy bands of rain to the northern Lesser Antilles through tomorrow. There is concern that the system could regenerate into a tropical cyclone later today or tomorrow as it tracks into a slightly more favorable environment. In fact, early guidance shows that many of the models now redevelop the system as a tropical storm by 24-36 hours from now. Stay tuned for further updates on the situation.

Tropical Storm Philippe is continuing on a northwesterly track at this time over the open waters of the Atlantic. Environmental conditions support brief changes in intensity over the next few days before gradual weakening commences by the end of the week. The storm will continue to move along the western periphery of an upper-level ridge the next few days before being picked up by a large upper trough forecast to develop over the eastern Atlantic by the end of the week. In any case, no impacts to land are expected as Philippe will remain out to sea through the forecast period.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Brian Edwards and Rob Richards

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Sep 28, 2011 2:54 pm  Reply with quote  

"Ophelia" is picking up steam again, and is once again a Tropical Storm system. It is not yet forecast to extremely intensify but some intensity is expected, although present Navy forecast track maps keep it well off the U.S. East Coast for now...
"Philippe" is still working out in the open Atlantic...





http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Ophelia Strengthens Into a Tropical Storm; Philippe Struggles

Sep 28, 2011 10:47 AM

Ophelia has become better organized this morning with a well defined low-level center on the southwest side of deep convection and is now a tropical storm; sustained winds are now 50 mph. The upper trough affecting Ophelia is tracking east and should continue to shear Ophelia over the next 24-36 hours, so the feature may continue to pulse up and down to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. The upper trough will move away from Ophelia on Thursday and Friday and the upper-level shear may lessen, so Ophelia could strengthen as she moves to the north-northwest across warm waters. An upper trough deepening over the eastern U.S. this weekend will help to steer Ophelia to the north and northeast, away from the East Coast and possibly to the east of Bermuda. It's not out of the question that Ophelia strengthens to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Philippe continues to track slowly northwestward at this time over the open waters of the Atlantic. Environmental conditions are still hostile with strong southwesterly wind shear affecting the system. Philippe is barely holding on to tropical-storm strength. In fact, satellite images show that the low-level center of circulation is still disconnected from the thunderstorms that are to the north and east. The shear will continue to affect the storm in coming days, preventing the possibility of any strengthening. In fact, it should weaken into a depression soon if the wind shear does not let up at all.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards and Andy Mussoline



In the East Pacific ,"Hilary is maintaining CAT 1 classification heading west, but it is questionably predicted to turn back east toward the coast after loosing some of it's organization and bring wet weather to Northern Mexico & the Southern U.S. ...
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starman1





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PostFri Sep 30, 2011 2:13 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Ophelia" has re-organized and is presently holding at a CAT 2 classification. Although it is not expected to make direct landfall it is forecast to cruise close to 100 + miles east of Bermuda then head north toward Newfoundland... What a determined system this storm has been.
The other Atlantic system "Philippe" appears to be falling apart presently, but we will keep the watch.....





http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:


Ophelia Now a Category 2 Hurricane; Philippe Still Unimpressive

Sep 30, 2011 5:25 AM

As of Friday morning, Ophelia went through an eye wall replacement cycle and continues to look impressive on satellite. A very deep and more defined eye can be seen on satellite along with a very impressive swath of convection bubbling up around it. Wind speeds have increased over the past 24 hours, and that is thanks to a lack of inhibiting upper-level shear. This shear will remain low to nonexistent throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend. Some slight strengthening is expected with Ophelia, though it will likely not break to Category 2 barrier. Models continue to trend more to the west, which means Ophelia will pass within 125 miles of Bermuda during the course of the weekend. Tropical storm-force wind gusts are possible over Bermuda, as the storm pushes through the Atlantic, and perhaps some outer bands of rain are possible as well. As the storm moves farther north, it will rapidly gain speed, ultimately heading for Newfoundland. The farther north the storm goes, the cooler waters will cause the storm to weaken back into a tropical storm. Models runs currently have the storm pushing through Newfoundland late Sunday. Interests in Newfoundland and Bermuda should continue to monitor Ophelia as new information comes in.

Philippe, on the other hand, is looking very unimpressive on satellites with very disjointed convection, well to the north and east of the low-level circulation. Philippe will likely stay a very weak tropical storm through the beginning of the weekend, as computer models continue to hint that shear does not being to vary much until later in the weekend. It is with this new information that we expect Philippe to last through the weekend before shear eventually weakens the storm into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. However, this new information still does not change the fact that Philippe will pose no threat to land as it churns over the open waters of the Atlantic.

Elsewhere, there are no major threats for tropical development over the next several days.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Don Pillittere

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starman1





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PostSat Oct 01, 2011 1:48 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Ophelia" has now achieved Major Hurricane classification & is holding at a CAT 3 presently. The system is now forecast to potentially slam Newfoundland as it picks up speed heading north off the U.S. East Coast...



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55736/opehelia-nears-bermuda-may-hit-1.asp?partner=accuweather

Hurricane Ophelia Nears Bermuda, May Slam Newfoundland
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Oct 1, 2011; 8:05 AM ET
__________________________________________________________



Ophelia Still a Major Hurricane; Philippe is a Weak Tropical Storm

Oct 1, 2011 6:46 AM

Ophelia has a well defined eye seen on recent satellite imagery. Wind shear will increase on Saturday and this will begin to slowly weaken the storm. Ophelia will continue to accelerate to the north through the weekend. Tropical storm-force wind gusts are possible over Bermuda, and some outer bands of rain are likely as well. As the storm moves farther north, it will rapidly gain speed, ultimately heading for Newfoundland. The farther north the storm goes, the ever cooler waters will cause the storm to weaken back into a tropical storm. We expect Ophelia to impact southeastern Newfoundland as a strong tropical storm on Monday. Interests in Newfoundland and Bermuda should continue to monitor Ophelia as new information comes in.

Philippe is a weak tropical storm this morning. The wind shear is not expected to relax anytime soon. So Philippe will maintain strength or slowly weaken this weekend. If Philippe can survive the weekend, it may move into a zone where atmospheric conditions are more favorable for development. For now, Philippe will pose no threat to land as it churns over the open waters of the Atlantic.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards

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starman1





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PostFri Oct 07, 2011 1:56 pm  Reply with quote  

"Philippe" was able to achieve Hurricane classification and is presently maintaining CAT 1 status. This system is not expected to hold together for much longer as it moves up out in the North Atlantic and it is not projected to be a threat to any land areas.




http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Philippe Remains a Category 1 Hurricane Tonight

Oct 6, 2011 11:06 PM

Philippe is a category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph. The hurricane was located 455 miles east-southeast of Bermuda over the open Central North Atlantic as of Thursday night. The hurricane will start to experience a more hostile environment later in the day on Friday and into this weekend as strong upper level winds oriented southwest to northeast overtake it's circulation. This will cause the storm to become tilted to the northeast. Water temperatures along the expected path of Philippe are going to remain warm enough to keep the system tropical. However, drier air and that strong shear will cause the system to unravel. So, we are expecting Philippe to be downgraded to a tropical storm later tomorrow or tomorrow night. Philippe will track into the North Atlantic this weekend and become a non tropical storm system.

Computer models are forecasting the development of low pressure roughly from the southeastern Gulf to the western Bahamas to the southeast Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The exact location of where development is going to take place is highly uncertain at this point since we don't have a feature forming just yet. Once developed this feature will head northward and bring Florida gusty winds and wet stormy weather mostly from Saturday night through Sunday night. Some computer information suggests that this low pressure area will become an organized tropical system that will track northward either just west of the Florida peninsula or along and near the east coast of the Sunshine State. All interests in Florida and over the coastal Southeast U.S. should monitor the development of this system this weekend. Regardless of strength this system should bring a large area of rain northward across the southeast U.S. early next week and further north over the mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. late next week. Since much of the Northeast U.S. has experienced higher than normal rainfall during the past few weeks there is a higher than normal chance for flooding rainfall from this system during the middle and latter part of next week over the northeast United States.

The rest of the North Atlantic Tropical Basin should remain relatively quiet through the weekend.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, Updated by AccuWeather Meteorologist Erik Pindrock



Out in the East Pacific, two storms have developed & have been given names. The first of these systems has already achieved Hurricane classification and is called "Irwin", which is holding a CAT 1 classification presently. The second system has earned the name "Jova" & it is presently classed as a Tropical Storm, but it is also forecast to become a Hurricane as well. Both of these storms are presenting potential threats to Mexico's southern shores as they are forecast to make abrupt U-turns and head east into Mexico as early as next week, lining up to what could become a one-two punch from two successive HURRICANES.
Heads up down south.......








http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather


quote:

Twin Tropical Storm Trouble

Oct 7, 2011 5:24 AM

Tropical Storm Jova continues to slowly track to the west-northwest early Friday morning. Meanwhile, Irwin continued to strengthen last night and is now a Hurricane. The storm centers are only 700 miles away from each other. Despite their proximity to each other, both storms are forecast to eventually become hurricanes. The satellite picture shows very impressive outflow present over the storms. Water temperatures are very warm. So, conditions are favorable for strengthening. Jova is the most threatening of the two storms to the Mexican Coast at this time. It is expected to be picked up by an upper-level trough, and move northeastward into southern Mexico early next week as a hurricane. Then Irwin could follow a similar path a couple of days later. So, things could get real ugly for the Mexican coast in a hurry.

Elsewhere across the Eastern Pacific, shower and thunderstorm activity remains scattered about the basin, mainly in the vicinity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. However, no other tropical development is expected over the next several days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel, Updated by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Matt Alto

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
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PostMon Oct 10, 2011 2:18 pm  Reply with quote  

In the East Pacific waters, "Jova" has revved up into a Major Hurricane and is presently maintaining a CAT 3 classification with further intensification expected as atmospheric conditions in its projected path are favorable for further development. This system is forecast to make a direct hit on Mexican shores as a Major CAT 3 class HURRICANE... On it's heels is Tropical Storm "Irwin" no longer holding Hurricane status, but it is still forecast to follow "Jova" inland and bring more trouble to areas first hit by Major Hurricane "Jova".



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Jova Becomes Major Hurricane

Oct 10, 2011 5:37 AM

Jova rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane this morning as it slowly churned eastward at 5 mph. The storm has winds of 120 mph and will continue to slowly strengthen today as it moves towards the Mexican coast. A favorable environment with rich moisture and low wind shear will allow Jova to strengthen into a Category 4 storm later on Monday. Jova will gain speed and turn to the northeast by Tuesday morning and make landfall near Manzanillo, Mexico late on Tuesday night as a Category 3 hurricane. Destructive winds, flooding rain and deadly landslides will occur along the coast as the storm pushes onshore.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Irwin continues to struggle eastward as a tropical storm. Its appearance on satellite imagery is very ragged and it is expected to remain a tropical storm as it slowly moves eastward in the wake of Jova. It is possible that Irwin will bring more flooding rainfall later this week to similar locations that will get hit hard by Jova.

An area of disturbed weather south of the Gulf of Tehuantepac has a moderate chance of developing into a tropical entity in the next few days.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Dan DePodwin

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starman1





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PostTue Oct 11, 2011 2:43 pm  Reply with quote  

Impact Mexico... Soon "Jova" will hit the Mexican coastline as a Major classed Hurricane, presently holding at CAT 3 and predicted to make landfall holding that classification. This system is going to impart damage to areas in it's path... Bands from this system are already inundating the coastline with rains and winds, and all we can do is WATCH!
Still following behind "Jova" is what is left of "Irwin", although it is no longer a very organized system it is still forecast to deliver rain potentially to areas already slammed by Hurricane "Jova".





http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/west/latest_west_wv_fd.gif


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Major Hurricane Jova Heading toward Mexico

Oct 11, 2011 8:11 AM

Jova remains a major Category 3 hurricane as it moves slowly toward the southwest coast of Mexico. Jova will probably change little in strength before it makes landfall this evening as a powerful storm. Jova may gain some speed as it moves northeastward today, making landfall just north of Manzanillo, Mexico, this evening. Destructive winds, flooding rain and deadly landslides will occur along the coast as the storm pushes onshore. Some wind and rain will be felt along the coast today, with conditions deteriorating as the day progresses. After the storm makes landfall, it will rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountainous terrain not far inland.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Irwin continues to struggle eastward and is a tropical depression. Its appearance on satellite imagery is very ragged, and it is expected to remain a tropical depression as it slowly moves eastward in the wake of Jova. It is possible that Irwin will bring more flooding rainfall later this week to similar locations that will get hit hard by Jova.

An area of disturbed weather south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has a moderate chance of developing into a tropical entity in the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer





(Edited to add new image afternoon 10-11-11, now CAT 2 classification)

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starman1





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PostWed Oct 12, 2011 2:20 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Jova" is presently impacting Mexico holding as a CAT 1 class system as it moves inland. Fortunately, the system did subside somewhat from it's initial predicted impact of CAT 3 before slamming into Mexico, but it is still giving those in it's path a beating with excessive winds and rains which are presenting hazardous conditions for those on the ground beneath it.



"Irwin" is still present in the waters behind "Jova" but it has not accelerated beyond Tropical Storm status as of yet. Expert reports claim it has diminished in intensity over night and is facing less than favorable conditions for further intensification as it moves east toward the coast. They report their computer models now favor a track that takes the system further south than the areas affected by "Jova" & present Navy track maps appear to concur.



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/epacific/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forms While Jova Moves Inland

Oct 12, 2011 6:11 AM

Jova made landfall early this morning just north of Mazanillo, Mexico, as a Category 2 hurricane. Jova continues to slowly track to the north and will likely continue to lose momentum as it pushes farther inland. The storm will rapidly weaken in intensity and is expected to be a tropical depression by this evening. However, destructive winds, flooding rain and deadly landslides will continue to be a threat from this storm, especially in towns and communities along the coast.

To the west-southwest of Jova, Tropical Storm Irvin weakened a little last night. The storm remains relatively weak as it continues to track to the east-northeast. The storm became less organized overnight. Current satellite imagery shows a lot of thunderstorms near and around the center of the storm. Irwin is likely to pick up some speed later today before it turns to the east. Despite Irwin remaining a tropical storm, it will likely weaken to a tropical depression over the next 24 hours as it continues to entrain stable, dry air. Easterly wind shear will also provide a hostile environment as it tracks to the east-northeast in the wake of Jova. It is possible that Irwin could bring more flooding rainfall later this week to similar locations that will get hit hard by Jova; however, models seem to be trending away from this solution.

Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Twelve-E formed just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning. The storm is expected to move slowly to the north today before turning to the northeast tonight as it approaches the southern coast of Mexico and Guatemala. The depression will likely be named a tropical storm later today. Heavy rain will be likely across southern Mexico as well as portions of Guatemala. Tropical storm winds are expected to reach the coast by this afternoon before spreading farther inland tonight.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Matt Alto

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starman1





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PostTue Oct 25, 2011 2:31 pm  Reply with quote  

Over the weekend, the Caribbean spawned another named system which has already reached a CAT 2 hurricane classification, Hurricane "Rina".
This system is forecast to intensify and experts believe it could become a Major class system by tomorrow.
Present Navy track maps suggest this storm will stay to the south of the Gulf of Mexico, targeting more toward the Yucatan & then turning near Cuba.
The experts suggest dryer air in the Gulf area will calm the system some, diffusing it slightly and steering it more to the east, but presently they do not suggest it will hit the U.S. as a Hurricane. Floridians are being advised to keep WATCH as things progress toward the end of this week.











http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Rina Strengthening in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Oct 25, 2011 7:56 AM

Convection continues to build around the circulation of Rina and a gradual increase in strength is expected over the next 24 hours. Rina is the sixth hurricane of the tropical season and has reached Category 2 strength; Rina could become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Rina is located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, approximately 215 miles southwest of Grand Cayman. Environmental conditions will remain somewhat favorable for strengthening in that the wind shear will be light and the sea surface temperatures are more than warm enough to sustain a system. However, one limiting factor for significant strengthening will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the strengthening process down.

Through the middle of the week, Rina will continue tracking slowly toward the west, north of the coast of Honduras. By the latter part of the week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico, and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and perhaps northeast. This movement could bring the tropical system near or over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday or Friday. Some moisture from the storm could extend northeastward across Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas by the end of the week or this weekend, but at this time it is very questionable if the center of the storm will make it much farther north than the Yucatan Channel. However, residents of South Florida should monitor the progress of Rina very closely as some computer models do take the center of Rina over the Florida Keys or the southernmost tip of Florida later on Friday or Friday night.

The other area we are monitoring for potential development right now is a broad area of low pressure that is currently over the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although satellite imagery continues to show some shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure center, it remains rather disorganized without a low-level center of circulation. This area of low pressure will bring some gusty showers and thunderstorms to the central and southern Windward Islands today as it continues to track westward. This low center should continue to track westward across the Caribbean later in the week, and some development will be possible once it reaches the western Caribbean.

The rest of the North Atlantic tropical basin will not support tropical development for at least the next few days.

By Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller

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starman1





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PostWed Oct 26, 2011 2:46 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Rina" is still a very powerful storm presently a CAT 2 near CAT 3, and there is every indication that it will intensify further before impacting the Yucatan Peninsula near Cancun Mexico.
Navy track maps project a more northerly track for the system as opposed to yesterdays predictions, & now Florida may well be in its path depending on the strength the storm is able to maintain as it progresses...



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash




http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Category 2 Rina Continues to Churn Westward

Oct 26, 2011 5:37 AM

Rina has maintained Category 2 status this morning with winds at 110 mph. This puts the storm just below Category 3 strength and is expected to be upgraded later today. Upper-level winds will remain favorable for the next day or two as the storm slowly tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula, so further strengthening remains likely and Rina will likely be a Category 3 storm when it is in the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday.

The forecast for Rina's track and strength becomes much more challenging after Thursday. The eventual path that the hurricane will take depends on several different variables. The first factor to consider is how much strength Rina will lose while interacting with land near the Yucatan Peninsula. Should Rina maintain most of its strength through Thursday night, it will likely be steered more by upper-level west-southwesterly winds that will be found over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This would increase the threat to Florida. A weaker storm would be more likely to wander closer to Cuba through Friday. Another factor that impacts the forecast will be the strength of those upper-level southwesterly winds. These winds may cause shear that would weaken Rina if they are strong enough. Again, the more strength that Rina can hold on to, the farther north Rina will track. Another item to consider will be the strength of an upper-level trough and associated surface front that will cross the Gulf of Mexico and Southeastern states later this week. The stronger this trough is later this week, the farther north Rina will track. Considering all these variables, AccuWeather believes that Rina will end up far enough north to have some impact on the weather in the Florida Keys and possibly a part of South Florida on Friday or Saturday.

Residents of and those with interests in South Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba should all closely monitor the progress of Rina over the coming days. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, storm preparations should be well under way. Those in Belize and on the islands of Honduras should be prepared for tropical storm conditions as the outer bands of Rina will affect those areas.

There is another area to watch for a new development over the next few days. A tropical wave is crossing the eastern Caribbean with the wave axis along 68 west, south of 17 north, slowly edging westward. There is a large but spotty and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms with this wave over the central and eastern part of the Caribbean. Upper-level winds in this area are marginally favorable for development, though there is some northerly shear along the wave axis south of Puerto Rico. Waters are very warm over the Caribbean Sea ahead of this wave. The odds of further development over the next day or so are long, but there is a decent chance that this develops further toward the end of the week.

One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 40 west, south of 20 north is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper-level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.

By Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Frank Strait and updated by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston

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starman1





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PostThu Oct 27, 2011 2:20 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Rina" has diminished in size and scope and will not impact the Yucatan today as a Major class system as was the prior potential experts prediction. The system will still present dangerous winds and rains to the area as it is still a Hurricane rated presently holding a CAT 1 classification. It is now forecast to diminish further as it passes over the Yucatan progressing toward Cuba.
Navy track maps today now suggest the system may loop back into the Caribbean waters & not the more northerly track projected yesterday into the Gulf...
WATCHING!



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash





http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Rina Weakening as it Approaches the Yucatan Coast

Oct 27, 2011 8:14 AM

Hurricane Rina will make landfall along northeast Yucatan coast near Cozumel later today then it will head north along the coast tonight into tomorrow before slowly shifting away to the east over the weekend. There will be damaging winds and flooding rains along the northeast Yucatan coast today through Friday, then taper off Friday night. A storm surge of 2-4 feet will occur near and just north of the landfall. The latest satellite pictures show a significant disorganized area of clouds around Rina. This has caused the winds to drop to 75 mph and this trend will probably continue with Rina weakening to a tropical storm by midday or early afternoon. Strong west-southwest winds aloft will weaken Rina even more over the weekend as the low-level center drifts eastward toward Cuba the midlevel feature heads across South Florida with heavy rain.

We have been monitoring an area of convection moving across the southern Caribbean. Althrough a trough is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, development into a tropical system appears unlikely for the next several days.

By Accuweather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde and Meteorologist Eric Leister

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starman1





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PostFri Oct 28, 2011 2:32 pm  Reply with quote  

"Rina' is presently no longer a Hurricane, and is once again a Tropical Storm.
Today's track map of the systems projected path has changed as well and the storm is now forecast to turn back into the Caribbean and south west toward Belize.
Visible satellite imagery however, shows the bulk of the storms cloud mass northwest of Cuba in the Gulf waters. This system has been an elusive one for the experts and their models to track with any consistency.




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starman1





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PostTue Nov 08, 2011 3:25 pm  Reply with quote  

Another system has formed in the Atlantic region. At number 19 for the season, "Sean" is presently considered a subtropical storm. This system is forecast to regain some strength today but experts project it is no threat to any land areas & it is forecast to turn away from the U.S. and head back to the northeast Atlantic waters...
Hopefully this will be the last system of the season and we can close the door on this years watch, just sayin'.....






http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Subtropical Storm Sean in the Western Atlantic

Nov 8, 2011 9:58 AM

Subtropical Storm Sean has formed in the western Atlantic several hundred miles east of Florida. It is expected to meander to the west over the next few days before a weakening cold front helps steer Sean to the north then northeast by Thursday. This front will likely cause Sean to lose its tropical characteristics.

While Sean is a subtropical storm at this time, satellite images show convection trying to become more organized around the center of circulation. This is a sign that Sean may be acquiring tropical characteristics, and Sean is expected to be a true tropical storm later today.

Sean poses no direct threat to any land areas at this time. However, large and dangerous swells and rip currents will impact coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina over the next few days. In addition to the Southeast U.S. coast, some large surf and some gusty showers and thunderstorms will buffet Bermuda over the next few days as the storm passes south and west of the area.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller



Last edited by starman1 on Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:42 pm; edited 1 time in total
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starman1





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PostWed Nov 09, 2011 2:40 pm  Reply with quote  

"Sean" has intensified and regained Tropical Storm classification. The system is expected to intensify further nearing a predicted 65 mph as it nears Bermuda. It is also still forecast to stay off the eastern seaboard heading back out to the north Atlantic, presenting no direct landfall on U.S. shores.


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Sean Moving Slowly Northwest

Nov 9, 2011 4:37 AM

Tropical Storm Sean is located 460 miles southwest of Bermuda with winds of 50 mph. The storm continues to very slowly track northwestward and is not expected to move much more during the next 24 hours. Sean is a large storm and tropical storm-force winds extend north and northeast of the storm's center by as much as 275 miles. The estimated lowest surface pressure with the storm is 995 millibars or 29.38 inches. Sean should slowly intensify during the next couple of days and could have maximum sustained winds of near 65 mph by the time it passes near Bermuda late on Thursday night into Friday morning.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect for Bermuda. Sean will make its closest approach to Bermuda late on Thursday night and Friday morning.

A strong upper-level trough supporting a cold front across the central and south-central U.S. will sweep eastward and cause Sean to move north later on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The storm will then start to move more to the Northeast on Thursday and Thursday night, then accelerate to the northeast on Friday. The storm will move over colder water and become a non-tropical storm system once again later on Friday and pass just southeast and east of Newfoundland on Friday night.

Sean poses no direct threat to the United States. However, large and potentially dangerous swells and rip currents will impact coastal areas from Florida to North Carolina over the next two days. Sean will bring very stormy weather to Bermuda including occasional wind-swept rain heavy at times through Friday morning. The track of the storm could bring tropical storm-force winds over that island during Thursday night and Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

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starman1





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PostThu Nov 10, 2011 3:19 pm  Reply with quote  

"Sean" has achieved its predicted intensification and is now hovering just below Hurricane strength with sustained winds of over 65mph. This system is expected to achieve hurricane classification before days end but it is still forecast to stay off the U.S. East coast thanks to, according to the expert reports "an upper-level trough moving eastward across the eastern United States". Wonders never cease...








http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/atlantic/basin.asp?partner=accuweather

quote:

Sean Southwest of Bermuda

Nov 10, 2011 9:49 AM

Tropical Storm Sean is located southwest of Bermuda with winds of 65 mph, having strengthened from Wednesday. Convection has become better organized around the center of circulation, and satellite imagery showed that a broad eye has formed in the center of circulation. This feature is conducive to additional strengthening, and it is possible that Sean could strengthen to a minimal Category 1 hurricane today as it remains in warm water under low wind shear. The storm continues to track northward and is not expected to move too quickly over the next 12 hours. Sean is a large storm and tropical storm-force winds extend north and northeast of the storm's center by as much as 220 miles.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Bermuda. Sean will make its closest approach to Bermuda late to night or early Friday morning. Sean will bring 1-3 inches of rain to Bermuda, as well as some tropical storm-force winds late today into Friday.

Sean is moving to the northeast and will continue moving in this direction through Friday. An upper-level trough moving eastward across the eastern United States will create a southwest wind flow over the storm later today. This will cause increased shear. The track we expect Sean to take will bring the storm over colder water tonight and Friday. This cooler water combined with the increased shear will cause Sean to accelerate and weaken tonight and tomorrow.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next few days.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer

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