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2012 HURRICANE WATCH

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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Aug 03, 2012 2:28 pm  Reply with quote  

The Caribbean is entertaining the latest named system to form in the Atlantic region, presently a Tropical Storm earning the name "Ernesto".
This system is presently maintaining wind speeds around 45 mph, but if conditions improve it is forecast to potentially reach Hurricane classification as it moves west in the Caribbean waters toward what is currently predicted as the Yucatan...
We'll be watching.........




http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?





http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Ernesto Moves Through the Lesser Antilles

Aug 3, 2012 6:48 AM

Tropical Storm Ernesto will pass close to or over Martinique this morning and into the eastern Caribbean. Tropical Storm warning extends from Guadeloupe to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados with a tropical storm watch for Grenada. Impacts across these islands will include heavy rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches, winds over 50 mph and a storm surge of 1-3 feet. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Grenada with the center of the storm and the highest of the threat to go by to the north.

Beyond Friday, the environment ahead of Ernesto appears to be more favorable for steady intensification as shear continues to drop off and the system tracks across deep warm water. Dry air may continue to be a problem, but by the weekend this factor should become less of an issue. Assuming that the wind shear abates and dry air is mixed out of the system, Ernesto will have a shot at attaining hurricane strength late this weekend or early next week as it heads across the western Caribbean.

It's too early to speculate where the eventual destination for Ernesto will be, but model guidance continues to suggest that Jamaica will have some effects. Then the Yucatan Peninsula will be impacted by the middle of next week. Interests in the Windward Islands, as well as across the Caribbean should monitor the progress of Ernesto over the next several days.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, we're continuing to track a few tropical waves, none of which are a threat to develop at this point. The more significant wave right now is moving across Cuba and the central Bahamas, bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms to that region. This wave will continue to the west-northwest, bringing enhanced moisture to Florida over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde






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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Aug 04, 2012 2:12 pm  Reply with quote  

The Atlantic region appears to be coming alive with now overnight two active systems moving west. Forming over night off the African coast is a new system qualifying as the seasons sixth named storm now Tropical Storm "Florence". This system is well out to sea in the open Atlantic and presently is no threat to any land areas.
"Ernesto" on the other hand is beginning to show signs of greater development as it moves further into the Caribbean, and will most certainly become a problem as it progresses along if conditions continue to remain favorable in it's path. Presently, Navy track maps still suggest impact along the Yucatan.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash









http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Tropical Storm Florence Forms Early Saturday

Aug 4, 2012 8:06 AM

A tropical wave which came off the coast of Africa a couple of days ago was upgraded to T.D. 6 Friday evening, then was quickly moved up to Tropical Storm Florence Saturday morning. Still well out over the open Atlantic Ocean, Florence will not have any immediate impacts on land and will likely run into some shear in the next few days. This shear will diminish the storms strength during the midweek weakening back into a open wave.

Tropical Storm Ernesto continues moving through Caribbean early Saturday morning. The environment ahead of Ernesto appears to become more favorable for steady intensification as shear continues to drop off and the system tracks across deep warm water. Dry air may continue to be a problem, but by the weekend this factor should become less of an issue. Assuming that the wind shear is low and dry air stays well north of the storm's main circulation, Ernesto will reach hurricane strength this weekend or early this week as it heads across the central and western Caribbean.

The upper level pattern, as well as model guidance, continues to suggest that Ernesto will pass south of Jamaica with some effects on that island. Then the Yucatan Peninsula will be impacted Tuesday and Wednesday of the coming week as the storm continues west-northwestward. Interests across the Caribbean, should monitor the progress of Ernesto over the next several days.

A tropical wave moving across Cuba, the Straits of Florida and the southern and central Bahamas continues to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms. Surface pressure fall slightly across this area on Friday; however, stronger shear aloft over the region is expected to prevent tropical development of this system. This wave continues to expand northward and will bring increased moisture across at least the southern half of Florida this weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde





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starman1





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PostTue Aug 07, 2012 2:02 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm "Ernesto" is nearing impact along the Yucatan. It is presently just below Hurricane status but experts suggest it may still achieve that classification before its finished with the peninsula.
What was "Florence" has been diminished to a remnant, and it is not presently forecast or expected to get back up to speed.





http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Ernesto Approaching Belize and Yucatan

Aug 7, 2012 9:49 AM

Ernesto remains a strong tropical storm this morning as it track to the north of Honduras and approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto is packing winds of 65 mph and will slowly strengthen as it continues to move to the west-northwest. Ernesto will maintain this track which will take the storm parallel with the north coast of Honduras affecting the very popular Bay Islands and northern Honduras today. Impacts on Honduras and the Bay Islands will be heavy rainfall mostly along and near coastal Honduras. The higher terrain of Honduras which is much farther inland might see a few hours of heavy rainfall. Still it could rain enough to cause some mudslides, especially in some of the deforested areas.
We still expect Ernesto to move west northwest tonight and make landfall over Belize as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane during the overnight hours. The storm will weaken as it tracks westward across the southern Yucatan Wednesday. The biggest impacts across this area will be torrential rainfall. We are expecting a general 4-8 inches of rain over much of Belize, southern Yucatan and northern Guatemala with some localized 12 inch rainfall amounts in the higher terrain. The storm will have an opportunity to move back over water in the southern most Bay of Campeche late Wednesday and Wednesday night which could sustain the storm for another landfall in southeast Mexico Thursday. Little if any restrengthening is expected as the storm moves across the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical waves near 64 west and just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands remain disorganized and no develop is expected in the next 24 hours, however we will continue to monitor these areas for slow development this week. Another strong tropical wave is projected to move off the coast of Africa late in the week. This system will be a feature to keep an eye on.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Florence will drift westward and pass just northeast of the Leeward Islands Wednesday into Thursday. This system succumbed to cooler water, dry air and shear, the three variables that are the biggest limiting factors in tropical storm formation and development. We do not expect these remnants to reorganize.
By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister





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starman1





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PostWed Aug 08, 2012 2:36 pm  Reply with quote  

"Ernesto" was able to achieve Hurricane classification as a CAT 1 before impacting the Yucatan, where it is over presently. The system has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm currently, but it is forecast to reach Hurricane strength once again as it moves off the peninsula back into open water before impacting southern Mexico...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Tropical Storm Ernesto Crossing the Yucatan Peninsula

Aug 8, 2012 8:06 AM

Ernesto finally became a hurricane yesterday afternoon thanks to deep warm water low shear and a break in the pesky dry air along its path. Around 10 p.m. CDT Tuesday, the hurricane made landfall about 40 miles north of Chetimal, Mexico. Ernesto has been since downgraded to a tropical storm over the Yucatan Peninsula. We do expect Ernesto to re-emerge into the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Since this storm has remained a strong tropical storm, Ernesto will likely become a hurricane yet again as it will be over relatively warm water for about 24 hours before it makes its final landfall just south of Veracruz Mexico sometime Thursday evening or Thursday night.

As far as impacts, the storm will bring torrential rainfall to the southern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Guatemala the first half of today. Effects will wind down in Belize early this afternoon then in northern Guatemala late this afternoon into the evening as the storm continues to head west. Damaging winds will most likely occur within 20-30 miles of the center of Ernesto smack dab in the middle of the Yucatan. Wind gusts to or just shy of hurricane force will occur in this area.

Once over the southern Bay of Campeche, the counterclockwise flow around Ernesto will bring moderate to heavy rain to southeastern Mexico late today through tomorrow. Then the storm will bring heavy rain farther west over the rest of southeastern Mexico in the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains west and southwest of Veracruz by Friday. This area could experience flooding rainfall and life-threatening mudslides.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is being affected by a large area of African dust spanning from the African coast to near the Leeward Islands. This dry air and dust is affecting mostly the middle levels of the atmosphere where thunderstorm growth is most critical. This dusty air surrounds the remnant low of Florence. That remnant low will continue moving west to west-northwest to pass northeast of the Leeward Islands tomorrow and Friday. A tropical wave near 40 west continues to have building and dying thunderstorms which still could attempt to become better organized in a few days. However, this feature is also being hounded by the extensive dust and dry air, so development of this system will be in doubt unless it can break through the dry air issue. Long-range computer forecasts continue to show a strong tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa on Friday. Satellite images over Africa show a large thunderstorm complex over central Africa between 5 north and 15 north latitude that appears to be the feature that will help create that strong tropical wave.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and updated by Mark Paquette






The East Pacific region has also spawned a new named system, presently classified a Tropical Storm named "Gilma".
This storm is nearing Hurricane classification, but experts suggest it will not become a threat to any land areas before dissipating in the open Pacific.
Tracking maps are presently unavailable to this watcher, as is visible satellite imagery at this time...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Gilma Almost a Hurricane Over Open Waters of the Pacific
Aug 8, 2012 5:27 AM

Tropical Storm Gilma continues to track west-northwest over the open waters of the East Pacific. The center of Gilma is now over 600 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Current satellite imagery shows that convection around the center of Gilma continues to become better organized and the system should become a hurricane later today as it moves through a warm water and low wind shear environment. Gilma will continue to strengthen for around the next 24 hours as it remains in this environment that is conducive for tropical development. Gilma will reach its peak intensity sometime Thursday or Thursday night before it takes more of a northward turn into cooler ocean waters on Friday and this weekend. Gilma will weaken back to a tropical storm Friday evening or Friday night and may be a depression or remnant low pressure area by the end of the weekend as these cooler waters will quickly weaken Gilma.

Gilma's track will keep it well away from any landmass.

Also, there is an area of showers and thunderstorms roughly 450 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico that we are continuing to monitor. Although satellite imagery suggests convection associated with this disorganized low pressure area has diminished in the last 12 hours, this low may have a chance to become a tropical depression over the next day or two if thunderstorms can regenerate and better wrap themselves about a low-level center.

Elsewhere across the basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 to 72 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





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PostThu Aug 09, 2012 2:18 pm  Reply with quote  

"Ernesto" remains a Tropical Storm as it moves across lower Mexico, the system is forecast to wind down as it moves over land... we'll be watchin.


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Tropical Storm Ernesto Nearing Its Second Landfall; Several Other Areas to Monitor

Aug 9, 2012 8:13 AM

Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to skirt the Mexican coast early Thursday morning as it tracks slightly south of due west across the far southern Bay of Campeche. This continued track means that Ernesto will make landfall later this morning or midday. With only a few more hours with the center of Ernesto over water, it is unlikely it will regain hurricane status at this point and should make its second landfall as a strong tropical storm.

The main impact from Tropical Storm Ernesto today through tomorrow and Saturday will be heavy, flooding rainfall. An average of 4-8 inches of rain with locally 12 inches or higher will occur today through Saturday across parts of the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and northern Oaxaca. In addition to heavy rain, a storm surge of 1-3 feet will occur today along coastal areas of Veracruz and Tabasco. These same coastal areas could see power outages occur today with wind gusts near hurricane force. Once Ernesto makes landfall, its winds will quickly wind down and weaken tonight and Friday.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, there are several areas we are monitoring for development. The first area is the remnants of Florence, which are located roughly 400 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery shows what thunderstorms remain with this remnant low are sparse and disorganized. Since these remains of Florence will be heading into an area of increasing wind shear, no further development or organization of this low is expected.

The other two areas we are monitoring show much stronger signs of future tropical development over the next several days. An area of low pressure near 14 north and 40 west is currently over 1,050 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands or about 1,300 miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles. Satellite imagery shows that this feature may evolve into a tropical depression over the next 24 to 36 hours as it tracks off to the west. Long range computer forecast models suggest this feature should move into the eastern Caribbean by Sunday night or Monday. The degree of development of this feature is still uncertain though as there is a large area of African dust or dry air to the north and west of the track of this system. The other area that we are closely monitoring is a large area of thunderstorms moving off the African coast that will become the 24th tropical wave of the season late today or tonight. Longer range computer forecast models also suggest this tropical wave has the potential to become an organized tropical system by early next week.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski



"Gilma" has achieved Hurricane classification and is presently holding a CAT 1 status out in the open Pacific. This storm is still not expected to impact any land areas as forecast by the expert's models...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Hurricane Gilma Not a Threat to Land

Aug 9, 2012 6:22 AM

Hurricane Gilma continues to track across the open waters of the Eastern Pacific off to the west-northwest at a little less than 10 mph. Gilma is over 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and will not threaten land as the storm continues to move away from land. Gilma may strengthen somewhat during the day today as it will be passing through an environment with low wind shear and warm ocean waters.

However, Gilma will take a more northward turn tonight into Friday. This will take the system into increasingly cooler ocean waters which will weaken Gilma back to a tropical storm sometime during the day on Friday. By the end of the weekend, Gilma will be downgraded to a tropical depression or even just a remnant low pressure area as cooler waters will quickly weaken Gilma.

Aside from Hurricane Gilma, we are watching an area of showers and thunderstorms roughly 500 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Thunderstorms associated with this feature remain disorganized and few in number. This area could become a tropical depression over the next day or two if thunderstorms can regenerate and better wrap themselves about a low-level center.

Elsewhere across the basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 to 72 hours.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski






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starman1





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PostFri Aug 10, 2012 2:17 pm  Reply with quote  

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/ernesto-turns-deadly-in-mexico/69554
Still spinning over southern Mexico, "Ernesto" is now a killer storm responsible for at least three deaths. The system appears to be reemerging on the west side of Mexico in the East Pacific, and if it is able to reorganize there into a Tropical Storm it will be given a new name...






http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Flooding Rain Continues Across Mexico From Ernesto; T.D. Seven in the Central Atlantic

Aug 10, 2012 4:58 AM

Tropical Depression Ernesto continues to have its low-level center weaken and fall apart over the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains of Mexico. However, despite the fact the low-level center is weakening over the interior of Mexico on Friday, heavy rainfall will continue to cause flash flooding and life threatening mudslides today and tonight across the region. Eventually, the mid-level circulation associated with Ernesto may cross Mexico and emerge into the Eastern Pacific Basin Sunday or Monday. If that occurs there is some chance it could form into another organized tropical system. If that happens and it becomes a tropical storm it would be given a different name.

Tropical Depression Seven is around 900 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west at 20 mph which is quite fast for a tropical depression. This tropical cyclone is in an atmosphere that will have relatively weak shear for about the next day or two. However, dry air to the north and west of the system may limit intensification. However, the depression should be displaced just far enough south and southwest of the dry air today that the system likely will become Tropical Storm Gordon sometime later Friday or Friday night. We expect this cyclone to move through the central Lesser Antilles late Saturday and Saturday night causing tropical storm force winds and localized heavy rainfall. This system will take a course similar to Ernesto and affect the same islands. Eventually this storm will end up in the eastern Caribbean Sunday then reach the central Caribbean by Tuesday of next week. Computer forecasts seem to be reluctant to intensify this system over the next few days. As it moves into the eastern Caribbean Sunday and Monday it will run into dry air and increased wind shear. So, there is much uncertainty about the future strength of this tropical cyclone as we follow it into next week.

We are monitoring several other features across the Atlantic Basin. The first is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles north of Puerto Rico that are associated with the remnants of Florence. Since this feature has no organized low-level feature and satellite imagery shows little in the way of thunderstorm activity, it is not expected to regain any strength. This system will eventually get drawn into stronger southwest winds aloft just off the east coast of the United States causing increased shear over the system. Another area we are carefully monitoring is a tropical wave and low pressure that moved off the west coast of Africa and is now roughly halfway between the African coast and the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery already shows a well-defined low level center with this wave and robust thunderstorm development. This tropical wave is likely to become a depression or even a tropical storm by the end of the weekend. Long range forecast computer models suggest this system will track west-northwest on the southern periphery of the strong Bermuda High and into the central Atlantic by the middle of next week.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski





"Gilma" appears to be winding down and experts models still suggest it is no threat to any land areas at this time...


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Gilma Weakening

Aug 10, 2012 4:00 AM

Tropical Storm Gilma is now around 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California as it drifts in a general northward direction around 5 mph. This general northward track will continue today and Saturday, keeping the storm well away from land. Also, this general track will take Gilma into increasingly cooler waters over the next 24 hours. These cooler waters will work to continue to weaken Gilma today and into Saturday and Sunday. By Saturday night, Gilma will be a tropical depression and then nothing more than a remnant low pressure area on Sunday.

Aside from Gilma, satellite imagery shows clouds, showers and thunderstorms associated with Atlantic Tropical Depression Ernesto moving off the west coast of Mexico into the eastern Pacific. As a remnant mid and upper level circulation associated with Ernesto moves into the East Pacific over the next day or two, it may attempt to reorganize into a tropical system.

Elsewhere across the basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 48 to 72 hours.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski






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starman1





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PostMon Aug 13, 2012 2:12 pm  Reply with quote  

"Ernesto" was able to enter into the East Pacific and qualify for a name change, now "Hector". This system is not expected to intensify as it is presently reported to be disorganized and faces further unfavorable conditions on its projected path.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?






http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Hector Remains Disorganized

Aug 13, 2012 8:24 AM

Tropical Storm Hector continues to track westward away from Mexico and is now roughly 350 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Satellite imagery continues to show that Hector is an asymmetrical storm as any deep convection associated with the tropical storm continues to be displaced west and southwest of the center due to strong easterly upper-level winds. This easterly wind shear will remain rather strong over the next few days, which will keep Hector from strengthening over the next day or two. Eventually, Hector will take a more northward turn by Tuesday night and Wednesday into cooler waters. This path over cooler waters will weaken Hector to a tropical depression by Wednesday and eventually a remnant low pressure area by Thursday or Friday. Hector will not affect any major landmasses over the next few days, and rain and wind on Socorro Island will subside today as well as Hector moves away from the tiny island that houses a Mexican naval base.

Aside from Hector, we are monitoring a low pressure area around 200 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. This low pressure area is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. If this area can remain offshore over the next few days and not drift onto the Mexican coast, it may show signs of further development over the next several days.

Elsewhere, there are no major concerns for development across the remainder of the Eastern Pacific Basin over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski






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starman1





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PostTue Aug 14, 2012 2:05 pm  Reply with quote  

"Hector" is still maintaining some form of semblance out in the East Pacific, but it is not expected to threaten any land areas presently...



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Hector Slowly Tracking Westward

Aug 14, 2012 5:02 AM

Tropical Storm Hector continues to track westward away from Mexico and is now roughly 435 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Satellite imagery has indicated that the tropical storm has gained strength due to a slacking off of the shear. This should not be long lasting and the shear is expected to increase once again within the next day or two. Hector will take a more northward turn by Tuesday night and Wednesday into cooler waters. This path over cooler waters will cause Hector to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Eventually, the storm will weaken to a remnant low pressure area by Friday. Tropical Storm Hector will remain over the open waters of the East Pacific and not affect any land masses over the next few days.

An area of low pressure close to Acapulco is half on land and half on water and is no longer expected to be in a position for development. This feature will move slowly west-northwest and bring southern Mexico torrential flooding downpours with possible mudslides in the higher terrain during the next couple of days.

Elsewhere, there are no major concerns for development across the remainder of the Eastern Pacific Basin through at least Wednesday.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski





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starman1





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PostThu Aug 16, 2012 1:57 pm  Reply with quote  

The 7th named system in the Atlantic has formed and been given the name "Gordon". Presently spinning in the northern mid-west Atlantic waters this system is not currently expected to threaten any land areas with impact...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Tropical Storm Gordon Develops in the Atlantic
Aug 16, 2012 6:29 AM

Tropical Depression Eight has strengthened in the Atlantic and is now Tropical Storm Gordon. Gordon is located about 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear will promote the continued strengthening of Gordon and it may be near hurricane strength over the weekend.

The Atlantic Ridge will continue to steer Gordon north today. Once the ridge becomes suppressed to the south, the westerlies will pick up dramatically tonight, allowing the system to begin moving briskly eastward. No impact to land will occur through late this week. However, heavy rain and gusty winds can affect the Azores later this weekend or early next week.

A tropical wave, the remnants of T.D. 7, will continue to bring torrential downpours from Nicaragua and Honduras northwest into southeast Mexico through at least the next 24 hours. Flash flooding and mudslides will be the primary threat across these areas. A weak low pressure area may emerge into the Bay of Campeche late this week from the tropical wave. Although the chances for development are low, it will be an area to watch through the weekend. Some beneficial rain may come into south Texas late this weekend or early next week from this feature.

Another tropical wave will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Windward Islands to Puerto Rico through the next 24 hours, but no further development is anticipated. There are a couple of other tropical waves in the far eastern Atlantic, but again, no tropical development is anticipated.

By Meteorologist Mike LeSeney






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starman1





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PostFri Aug 17, 2012 1:57 pm  Reply with quote  

"Gordon" is still active out in the mid Atlantic and appears to be headed for Europe. The system is predicted to arrive as less than a Hurricane...
Keeping a eye on the storm.........


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?





http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Tropical Storm Gordon Weakens a Bit; Watching the Southern Gulf of Mexico

Aug 17, 2012 8:56 AM

Tropical Storm Gordon continues to track eastward around 20 mph as of Friday morning. The storm is located under 1200 miles west of the Azores. Satellite imagery shows that some dry air and westerly shear have weakened Gordon somewhat over the last 12 hours and the system looks more ragged and disorganized as of Friday morning. However, Gordon will continue to move eastward today across ocean waters warm enough to support a tropical system. If the shear across the system lessens over the next 12-24 hours, Gordon could still reach hurricane status by Friday night.

Mid-latitude westerly wind will take the Gordon eastward the next several days. No impact to land will occur through Saturday. However, heavy rain and gusty winds can affect the Azores late Sunday and Sunday night. Gordon will encounter cooler water and increased shear over the weekend which should allow for gradual weakening before reaching the Azores as a Tropical Storm. Gordon will then merge with a large upper level storm system and traverse much cooler water leading to a transition to a non-tropical low. This low could help increase downpours across the British Isles around Tuesday of next week.

A tropical wave, the remnants of T.D. 7, will continue to bring torrential downpours to parts of southeastern Mexico today and tonight. Satellite imagery and surface observations shows a broad and weak area of low pressure trying to develop around 150 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico. The system is in an environment that is conducive for tropical development with very warm waters and low wind shear. Thus, a tropical depression or even tropical storm may form in the next 24 to 48 hours. However, this system is very close to land right now and that may inhibit further development of this system, especially if it drifts westward or west-northwestward into southern Mexico over the next 24 to 36 hours. However, if the system does not drift inland over the next 36 hours and remains out over the warm waters of the Gulf, it will have a much better chance to develop. At this point, the moisture with this system may end up being drawn further north into northern Mexico or even perhaps far southern Texas by early next week.

A strong tropical wave is moving off the west coast of Africa this morning. Long range forecast computer models continue to suggest this wave could become a more organized tropical system over the next few days. However, a large swath of dry air in place off the African coast could inhibit this tropical wave from showing further development.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we are not expecting any development in the next 24 to 48 hours.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski





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starman1





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PostSat Aug 18, 2012 2:07 pm  Reply with quote  

What is now Hurricane "Gordon" is currently being clocked as a CAT 1 class storm, and it is headed toward the Azores, then potentially toward Ireland & the UK.
Another system has also formed over night east of Mexico and earned the name "Helene". This system presently isn't expected to intensify...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




"Helene"


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Helene Barely a Tropical Storm; Gordon is Now a Hurricane

Aug 18, 2012 5:52 AM

Tropical Storm Helene formed last evening off the eastern coast of Mexico, but recent hurricane hunter missions found no signs of strengthening with the storm and maximum sustained winds were recently downgraded to 40 mph. Still, a tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast of Mexico from Barre De Nautla northward to La Cruz.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Gordon continues to track eastward around 20 mph as of early on Saturday morning. The storm is located about 800 miles west of the Azores. Satellite imagery shows that the storm continues to gain strength with deep convection indicated over its southern half. Gordon will continue to move eastward today across ocean waters warm enough to support a tropical system. With the storm moving through an area of relatively low wind shear, it has strengthened into a hurricane now. Because of this, the government of Portugal has placed the central and eastern islands of the Azores under a tropical storm warning.

A strong tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa is now well south of the Cape Verde Islands and has a large area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms, mostly south of the Cape Verde Islands. Long range forecast computer models continue to suggest this wave could become a more organized tropical system over the next few days.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we are not expecting any development in the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards






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starman1





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PostWed Aug 22, 2012 2:21 pm  Reply with quote  

Tropical Storm "Isaac" is up and running heading into the Caribbean. This storm is forecast to achieve Hurricane status as it progresses toward Cuba & then potentially on into Florida... Here comes trouble...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?







http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Isaac Approaching the Lesser Antilles; Another Tropical Wave on the Verge of Becoming a Depression

Aug 22, 2012 8:30 AM

Tropical Storm Isaac is around 200 miles east of Guadeloupe in the Leeward Islands as of Wednesday morning. Isaac is moving briskly to the west at just under 20 mph, so the center of the system will move across the northern Leeward Islands this evening. Radar and satellite imagery already shows squalls and outer rain bands from Isaac impacting the islands, and they will continue to do so at a more frequent rate throughout the morning hours.

A large area of high pressure north of Isaac will keep the storm on a general westward movement over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will take the center over the northern Leeward Islands this evening then keep the center south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later on Thursday and early Thursday night. Satellite imagery shows that thunderstorms associated with Isaac are beginning to deepen as the cloud tops are turning colder, a sign thunderstorms are growing more intense and higher into the atmosphere. Despite the increase in the intensity of thunderstorms, they are still somewhat asymmetrically wrapped about the low-level center. Thus, there has been no rapid deepening of the storm yet. However, Isaac will be tracking through an environment conducive to rapid intensification over the next 36 hours with warm waters and relatively low wind shear. Thus, by the time the center of Isaac passes south of Puerto Rico on Thursday night, we expect the system to be a hurricane. The high north of Isaac will begin to weaken Friday into the weekend, allowing the storm to slow its forward motion somewhat and make a more northward turn. This would bring the center over southern Hispaniola on Friday afternoon into Friday night then across eastern Cuba over the upcoming weekend. Beyond this weekend, there remains uncertainty about the path of the storm heading into Monday. However, most long-range computer forecast models bring the center of Isaac near the Florida Keys and South Florida on Monday. Regardless of the exact track of the center of Isaac, South Florida should be impacted by rain and wind from Isaac by next Monday. Beyond that, there could be a heavy rainfall and flood threat for the Deep South and Southeast heading into the middle of next week if the moisture with Isaac is drawn northward.

In the meantime, rain squalls moving across the Leeward Islands today and tonight will cause rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches along with a 1- to 3-foot storm surge which will cause coastal flooding. Tropical storm-force wind gusts today and tonight across the islands of 50 to 60 mph may cause sporadic power outages. On Thursday, heavy rainfall and tropical storm-force wind gusts will batter the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, causing more flash flooding and power outages. Greater impacts from Isaac will be felt across Hispaniola on Friday into Friday night as Isaac should be a hurricane by this time and the island will take a direct hit from the storm. A 3- to 6-foot storm surge will occur on the southern coast of Hispaniola later on Friday along and to the right of the center of the storm, causing coastal flooding. In addition, a period of sustained hurricane-force winds later on Friday into Friday night will cause power outages and structural damage to the southern coast of the island. Rainfall will be a huge problem for the entire island, especially the mountainous interior which is prone to mudslides. An average rainfall of 4-8 inches will fall across the island, but in the mountainous interior, locally heavier amounts of up to 20 inches may fall between Friday and Saturday in association with Isaac. The interaction between Isaac and Hispaniola should weaken the system, but it will still pound eastern Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane or possibly a strong tropical storm on Saturday night into Sunday before making a northward turn into the Straits of Florida. At this point, Isaac will have an opportunity to regain strength before potentially affecting South Florida and the Bahamas by Sunday night and Monday.

Aside from Isaac, we are monitoring an area of low pressure about 725 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that has a large area of clouds and thunderstorms associated with it. Satellite imagery continues to show that this cluster of thunderstorms on Wednesday morning is becoming better organized as thunderstorms are generally rotating about a low-level center. Thus, this low pressure area is on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression if these trends continue on satellite imagery and a depression will likely form sometime later today. By tonight or tomorrow, this system could become a tropical storm and the next name on the list for the Atlantic is Joyce. Beyond Thursday, this system should take a farther north track than Isaac and pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Long-range computer forecast models never show this system becoming all that strong, likely due to a combination of moderately high wind shear and a large area of dust to the north of the system. Over the next four to five days, this system will not be a threat to any land masses.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we are not expecting any development in the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski






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starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
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PostThu Aug 23, 2012 2:38 pm  Reply with quote  

It should be a very interesting week ahead, with now two threats brewing in the Atlantic region potentially capable of targeting the US as Hurricanes...
The first "Isaac" is presently gathering its energy in the Caribbean where it is threatening to make multiple hits on the islands there before coming into the southern US. Here's hoping the islanders have prepared shelter, especially those in Haiti displaced from the earthquake. A direct hit on that group would not be good...
Further out in the Atlantic is another system not yet named (10) but the projected track takes aim at the US East Coast presently.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


It will be interesting to watch what happens over the continental US in the way of developing systems the next few days or so. This watcher has a hunch it will be very curios to say the least...
Defense!!! oh yea, I mean we'll be watching.........

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash





http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Tropical Storm Isaac Moving Through the Eastern Caribbean; Tropical
Depression 10 in the Central Atlantic

Aug 23, 2012 6:20 AM

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to move westward across the eastern Caribbean Thursday morning, with the center of the storm now a couple hundred miles to the south-southeast of Puerto Rico. Satellite imagery continues to show that although Isaac has some robust thunderstorm development associated with it, it continues to struggle to become more organized. Showers and thunderstorms are not tightly wrapped about the center in a symmetrical fashion and mid-level dry air continues to hinder Isaac from strengthening despite being in a zone of fairly warm waters and low shear. However, we continue to feel that Isaac will break free of this dry air over the next 12 hours or so as it tracks farther west. Given the fact that Isaac already has robust thunderstorm development and well-defined outflow bands, the system should strengthen fairly quickly later today into tonight and tomorrow morning once it breaks free of the mid-level dry air.

The forecasted movement of Isaac today through the weekend into early next week has not undergone any radical changes. An area of high pressure to the north of Isaac will begin to weaken Friday night into the weekend, allowing the storm to slow its forward motion somewhat and make a more northward turn. This would bring the center over the southwest Dominican Republic late Friday and then will cross over Haiti on Friday night. The center of Isaac will then cross over eastern Cuba Saturday night and Sunday morning on this projected path. Although we expect Isaac to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Hispaniola late Friday, interaction with land will weaken the system back to a tropical storm over the weekend as it crosses first Hispaniola and then eastern Cuba.

Beyond this weekend, Isaac will track northward into the Straits of Florida by Sunday night and Monday. Eventually, the system should turn northward into the eastern Gulf next Monday and Tuesday and will regain hurricane status as it moves over very warm waters. If Isaac takes a farther west track than expected into the east-central Gulf well off the west coast of Florida, there would be an opportunity for the system to strengthen beyond a Category 1 storm. Regardless of the exact track and intensity, heavy rain, gusty winds and even some tornadoes will impact the Florida Peninsula on Monday into Tuesday as bands on the eastern side of Isaac rotate around the system.

In the meantime, Isaac will pass to the south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and will bring these islands a 1-3 foot storm surge along with an average rainfall of 4-8 inches with tropical storm force wind gusts. Flash flooding and mudslides can occur later today into tonight across the interior of Puerto Rico, where locally higher amounts above 8 inches of rain can fall between now and Friday morning. Greater impacts from Isaac will be felt across Hispaniola on Friday into Friday night as Isaac should be a hurricane by this time and the island will take a direct hit from the storm. A 3- to 6-foot storm surge will occur on the southern coast of Hispaniola later on Friday along and to the right of the center of the storm, causing coastal flooding. In addition, a period of sustained hurricane-force winds later on Friday into Friday night will cause power outages and structural damage to the southern coast of the island. Rainfall will be a huge problem for the entire island, especially the mountainous interior which is prone to mudslides. An average rainfall of 4-8 inches will fall across the island, but in the mountainous interior, locally heavier amounts of up to 20 inches may fall between Friday and Saturday in association with Isaac. The interaction between Isaac and Hispaniola should weaken the system, but it will still pound eastern Cuba as a strong tropical storm on Saturday into Sunday before making a northward turn into the Straits of Florida.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Depression 10 continues to move west-northwestward across the open waters of the central Atlantic, now over 1,100 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression will slowly strengthen over the next few days as it continues on this west-northwest track and should become a tropical storm later today or early tonight. Once the system becomes a tropical storm, its name would be Joyce. After today, this system should take a farther north track than Isaac and pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Long-range computer forecast models never show this system becoming all that strong, likely due to a combination of moderately high wind shear and a large area of dust to the north of the system. Over the next four days, this system will not be a threat to any land masses. However, beyond this weekend, the system will take a more northward turn by Monday and Tuesday of next week. This will bring the tropical system close to Bermuda by next Monday night, possibly bringing rain and gusty winds to the island.

Aside from Isaac and Tropical Depression 10, we are monitoring a tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic. Although there are some showers and thunderstorms associated with this tropical wave, further development seems unlikely over the next day or so.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we are not expecting any development in the next 24 to 48 hours.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski







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starman1





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PostFri Aug 24, 2012 1:49 pm  Reply with quote  

The storm that was Ten is now Tropical Storm "Joyce" out in the open Atlantic still tracking west but less organized, and is not expected to come to close to the US coast, but may potentially clip Bermuda.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


"Isaac" presently remains a Tropical Storm, but is still forecast & expected to reach Hurricane strength before impacting the southern US Gulf Coast...
The storm is expected to pass through Haiti & over Cuba but as yet it is not certain if it will achieve Hurricane force before impacting those areas. Nonetheless, this storm is huge in scope and will punish those islands with extreme amounts of flooding rain, before moving on into the Gulf waters where it is expected to intensify into a Hurricane.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Isaac Crossing the Caribbean; Joyce in the Open Waters of the Central Atlantic

Aug 24, 2012 6:16 AM

Satellite imagery shows that Isaac continues to struggle to organize itself Friday morning as it tracks west-northwest across the northern Caribbean. Although it is tracking through an environment that is conducive for tropical development with low wind shear and warm waters, dry air in the mid-levels has continued to inhibit the development of this storm. It has a 12-18 hour window where it can strengthen somewhat today, but then it will make landfall this evening or early tonight in Haiti. This interaction with land tonight as it crosses western Hispaniola will cause the storm to weaken. Thus, the main threat for Hispaniola later today through tomorrow will be heavy rainfall that will cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides. A widespread 4 to 8 inches of rain will fall later today through tomorrow across the island, with as much as 20 inches possible in the interior mountainous portion of the island. In addition to rain, a 3 to 6 foot storm surge can occur later today to the east of the center along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

The center of Isaac will then continue to move northwestward through the weekend, and will move across eastern Cuba later Saturday and then into central Cuba Saturday night and Sunday morning. This motion will have the center of Isaac nearly parallel the island of Cuba for roughly a 12 hour period Saturday night into Sunday morning. This continued interaction with land will not allow Isaac to strengthen or reorganize. However, much of Cuba will be battered with tropical storm force winds and a widespread flooding 4 to 8 inch rainfall over the weekend due to Isaac.

Beyond Sunday morning, Isaac will move northward into the Straits of Florida and then the center is expected to move over or very close to the Lower Keys of Florida Sunday night. At this point, Isaac will be moving across very warm waters and strengthening should occur. Isaac will then enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and continue to a general northwestward motion, keeping the center off the Florida west coast on Monday. This track would put Isaac on a collision course with the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. All interests along the Gulf Coast should carefully pay attention to Isaac, but the area between Gulfport, MS and the Florida Panhandle should be especially wary of this storm. This track across the east-central Gulf early next week will take Isaac over very warm waters and it should be far enough away from the Florida Peninsula that rapid deepening will be possible. Although we have landfall as a Category 2 storm, it is certainly possible that Isaac could strengthen beyond that, especially if the track of the storm is just a bit farther west than currently forecasted. Although the center is passing to the west of the Florida Peninsula on Monday, outer rain bands will batter the peninsula with gusty winds, heavy rain and even isolated tornadoes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Joyce is over 1,100 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Strong shear weakened Joyce yesterday as thunderstorms were displaced well to the north of the low-level center. Joyce will continue to move through a zone of strong wind shear over the next couple of days, so a return to tropical storm strength will be a slow process and may not come until Saturday night or Sunday morning. Eventually, Joyce will make a northward turn early next week and pass by to the east of Bermuda Monday night or Tuesday. This could bring the island a period of rain and gusty winds.

A tropical wave located near the Cape Verde Islands is the 28th tropical wave of this Atlantic hurricane season. The wave is tracking off to the west-northwest around 15 mph and satellite imagery shows some thunderstorms associated with it. However, dry and dusty air to the north and northwest of this wave will either keep it from developing or make any possible tropical development a slow process.

Otherwise, there are no major interests for tropical development across the rest of the basin over the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

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starman1





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PostSat Aug 25, 2012 1:20 pm  Reply with quote  

"Isaac"...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash
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