Chemtrail Central
Login
Member List
Image Database
Chemtrail Forum
Active Topics
Who's Online
Search
Research
Flight Explorer
Unidentifiable
FAQs
Phenomena
Disinformation
Silver Orbs
Transcripts
News Archive
Channelings
Etcetera
PSAs
Media
Vote


Chemtrail Central
Search   FAQs   Messages   Members   Profile
2012 HURRICANE WATCH

Post new topic Reply to topic
Chemtrail Central > Weather

Author Thread
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSun Aug 26, 2012 6:44 pm  Reply with quote  

"Isaac" is still presently a Tropical Storm but expert reports suggest it may reach a potential CAT 3 before impacting in what now appears to be the New Orleans area according to projected Navy track maps...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/east/latest_east_vis_conus.gif


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

The center of Isaac will pass over or near the Keys this afternoon into the early evening bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Keys and South Florida. As the system moves across very warm waters in the Straits of Florida and continues to pull away from Cuba and Hispaniola, the system should begin to strengthen and further organize. By tonight, Isaac should strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane as it track west-northwestward away from the Keys. Isaac will then move into the central Gulf and continue to strengthen as it tracks over warm waters and becomes a Category 2 storm prior to a likely landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning near Gulfport, Mississippi. There is growing concern that this westward shift in track will take Isaac over warmer waters for a longer period of time, making it more likely that Isaac could become a Category 3 storm prior to its central Gulf Coast landfall.

The impacts on the Florida Keys and South Florida through tonight will be 4-8 inches of rainfall along with tropical storm force winds across the area. As the storm pulls away from the Keys later tonight, there will be a 3 to 6 foot storm surge across southwest Florida as the winds switch around to a more westerly or southwesterly direction. In addition to flash flooding and coastal flooding, winds will be strong enough to cause some power outages across South Florida and the Keys. As the center of Isaac goes by to the west of the Florida Peninsula on Monday and Monday night, there will be heavy and gusty outer rain bands that will impact the west coast of Florida. In addition to heavy rain and gusty winds, these rain bands could spin up some isolated tornadoes.

These rain bands will spread into the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday into Tuesday evening and hurricane-force winds will then batter the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as Isaac makes landfall. The areas along the track and just to the east of Isaac's track will be hardest hit with hurricane force winds and a storm surge in excess of 6 feet in some areas. This could include a surge of water into Mobile Bay. Also, the westward shift in track means that New Orleans will be threatened by high water and flooding as well as water from Lake Pontchartrain, as evidenced by the path Katrina took east of the city in 2005.

Late in the week, Isaac's winds will wind down as it makes landfall but its flooding rainfall will continue late this week. This rainfall could affect eastern Texas, Louisiana and much of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Aside from Isaac, we are continuing to monitor an area of thunderstorms across the central Atlantic located around 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave may organize further into a tropical depression in the next day or two as it is moving through an environment that is fairly conducive to tropical development.

Otherwise, the tropical weather will be quiet across the rest of the basin over the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski
 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Aug 28, 2012 2:47 pm  Reply with quote  

On the 7th year anniversary of the monster that was "Katrina", New Orleans prepares for the impact from another storm "Isaac". Not quite yet a Hurricane, this system is covering much of the Gulf with its structure & it is forecast to reach potential Hurricane strength sometime today before impacting the coast. The storm will test the levee systems that were reinforced post "Katrina". Hurricane or not this system is huge in scope and will be delivering tons of excessive rains along the Gulf coast states where flooding will be a major concern for individuals there...


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash







http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Isaac on the Verge of Becoming a Hurricane

Aug 28, 2012 5:33 AM

Isaac is still a tropical storm at this time, but is on the verge to intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane sometime later this morning. Satellite imagery shows that Isaac has been fighting some drier air that has wrapped up into the circulation causing the showers and thunderstorms not to form an eye wall, which is a typical feature of a hurricane.

Rain bands will expand north and west into the southeastern Louisiana coast by daybreak this morning and affect most of the central Gulf Coast today and tonight. Hurricane-force winds will start to affect the central Gulf Coast later this afternoon, tonight and on Wednesday as Isaac makes landfall. The areas along the track and just to the east of Isaac's track will be hardest hit with hurricane-force winds and a storm surge of 6-12 feet over and to the right of landfall. This could include a surge of a few feet of water into Mobile Bay. Also, the current forecast track means that New Orleans will be threatened by high water and flooding as well. The flooding rainfall might be more of the concern, but a strong enough storm surge could contribute to the flooding. Rainfall amounts will exceed 6 inches in many locations along Isaac's track and especially to the east. Localized amounts of over a foot of rain are likely with this tropical system. Our track takes Isaac inland over southeastern Louisiana later today and tonight.

Later in the week, Isaac's winds will wind down as the storm moves well inland but its flooding rainfall will continue to move north and perhaps northwest. This rainfall could affect eastern Texas, Louisiana and much of the lower Mississippi Valley.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin we are continuing to monitor an area of thunderstorms across the central Atlantic located around 1,100 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This tropical wave is already encountering strong shear causing the surface low to be displaced to the south of the main thunderstorm area. We don't see this shear dropping off during the next couple of days, so the system should remain disorganized.

Otherwise, tropical weather will be quiet across the rest of the basin over the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards






Meanwhile, the East Pacific has a new named system, presently a Tropical Storm named "Ileana". This system is currently no threat to any land areas as it is well off the west coast of Mexico and is not expected to turn back around...



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2012/ep092012.12082806.gif


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:


TS Ileana Still in the East Pacific

Aug 28, 2012 5:34 AM

Satellite imagery showed numerous thunderstorms around the center of Ileana, an excellent indication of strengthening. Warm water and light wind shear will contribute to further strengthening and may become a hurricane as soon as tonight. Ileana will remain well away from any land through the upcoming weekend. However, increased swells and rough surf can hit western Mexico and southern Baja California this week.

Elsewhere, there are no major concerns for development in the remainder of the basin over the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Richards

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Aug 29, 2012 2:22 pm  Reply with quote  

Impact Louisiana! Hovering on the anniversary of what was "Katrina" sits "Isaac", now drenching the states of the Gulf Coast as a CAT 1 classed Hurricane... Unhappy anniversary to say the least, as reports of levee spill overs strand residence who remain trapped in their homes or worse as help is held at bay by this slow moving storm.

Further out in the Atlantic a new system has developed and earned the name Tropical Storm "Kirk". This system is well out in the open Atlantic and present track maps project it will stay away from US shores...



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=vis&coverage=conus&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Hurricane Isaac on Louisiana Coast; Tropical Storm Kirk in Central Atlantic

Aug 29, 2012 8:17 AM

The center of Hurricane Isaac has technically made landfall twice now; the first time was over Plaquemines Parish, La., early Tuesday evening. After making the initial landfall, the storm moved offshore and wobbled just off the coast, before making landfall a second time, just west of Port Fourchon early Wednesday morning. Isaac continues to struggle to move very far onshore. Maximum sustained winds are at 80 mph, with gusts to around 95 mph. Isaac has been showing signs of minor weakening, as its central pressure has begun to rise; however, wind speeds have not reflected any weakening.

Rain bands associated with Isaac will continue to expand north and west and will affect most of the central Gulf Coast this morning. Hurricane-force winds, mainly in gusts, will affect the central Gulf Coast this morning as well. The areas along the track and just east of Isaac's path will be hardest hit with hurricane-force winds and a storm surge of 6-9 feet. This will include a significant surge, as much as 10 feet, up the Mississippi River to New Orleans and a surge of a few feet of water into Mobile Bay. Also, the current forecast track means that New Orleans will continue be threatened by high water and flooding from heavy rain as well. Rainfall amounts have exceeded 6 inches in many locations along Isaac's track and especially to the east. Localized amounts of over a foot of rain are likely with this tropical system.

Later in the week, Isaac's winds will wind down as the storm moves well inland, but its flooding rainfall will continue to move north and perhaps northwest. This rainfall could affect eastern Texas, Louisiana and much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Once northward into the drought areas of Arkansas, Tennessee and Missouri, the drenching may be more of a benefit than a problem.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Storm Kirk continues to spin over the central Atlantic. The system is centered about 1,220 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The current forecast track of Kirk will keep it well out at sea with no threat to land. With low wind shear and warmer sea surface temperatures in its path, Kirk stands a decent chance of becoming a hurricane during the weekend, if not sooner.

The remainder of the basin will remain rather quiet for the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Evan Duffey



Still gathering momentum out in the Eastern Pacific but not quite yet a Hurricane, "Ileana" is maintaining its organization although it remains presently forecast to stay off shore and move to the northwest where it is still predicted to lose steam and fade away...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Ileana to Strengthen but Remain at Sea

Aug 29, 2012 8:22 AM

Tropical Storm Ileana continues to spin over the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 385 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The environment surrounding and ahead of the storm remains rather favorable today, with warm waters and low wind shear, and Ileana has strengthened a bit more early Wednesday morning as a result. The system is now a strong tropical storm and can be expected to strengthen into a hurricane as early as later today. Ileana is expected to take a turn to the northwest and eventually will begin heading west, where less favorable conditions will weaken the system. This track also spares any major land masses for significant impacts; however, some swells and rough surf could impact Baja California late week. By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Aug 30, 2012 2:27 pm  Reply with quote  

"Isaac" continues to pummel the southern Gulf states maintaining its organization and Tropical Storm status as it pushes further inland with its flooding rains and winds & now spawning Tornadoes as well...

Further out in the Atlantic "Kirk" now resembles a Hurricane with a well defined eye in satellite imagery, although not officially classified as one presently. This system is still not viewed as a threat presently as it is out in the open Atlantic and forecast to move further north into unfavorable conditions...


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:


Isaac Soaking Mississippi; Tropical Storm Kirk in the Central Atlantic
Aug 30, 2012 5:27 AM

Tropical Storm Isaac continue to slowly move northwestward across central Louisiana and by tonight, the center of the system will move into southern Arkansas. Satellite and radar imagery continue to show a well-defined circulation associated with Isaac with the majority of the rain and thunderstorms associated with it on the eastern and northern side of the center of circulation. Although Isaac is still a well-defined system, it will weaken to a tropical depression by this evening as the winds associated with Isaac will continue to weaken now that the center is well inland. Beyond tonight, the center of Isaac will take a northeastward turn across Missouri on Friday night into Saturday and then eventually into Illinois on Sunday.

Although the winds will weaken today, a several foot storm surge will continue for the next 6-12 hours across parts of southern Mississippi and southeaster Louisiana as a southerly flow in these areas continue to push water from the Gulf of Mexico onshore. In addition, these areas east of the center will be affected by heavy rain bands today that can produce tropical storm force wind gusts well inland and isolated tornadoes as well. The threat for these gusty rain bands and tornadoes will eventually spread into southern Arkansas as the day goes on. However, heavy and flooding rainfall will likely continue to be the main threat associated with Isaac the next few days as tropical rains will continue well inland from today through Saturday and Sunday. An average of 6-12 inches of rain can occur today into tomorrow along and to the east of the track of Isaac's center. This swath of heavy rain will then diminish through Saturday and Sunday, but widespread amounts of 4-8 inches through Sunday should still occur across much of Missouri and then stretching into southern and central Illinois. Although much of this region has been affected by drought this summer and will welcome this rainfall, too much rain falling at once onto dry and hard soil will create some serious flooding issues as we head into the Labor Day weekend.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, Tropical Storm Kirk continues to track northwestward across the open waters of the central Atlantic. The system is far from land as it is over 1,000 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and around 1,500 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Kirk should intensify into a hurricane in the next 24 hours with warm waters and low wind shear in its path as it continues to track off to the northwest. However, Kirk will eventually take a more northward and then northeastward turn by the end of the weekend as it is picked up in the westerlies. As it moves over cooler waters and becomes absorbed in the westerlies, Kirk should become a large non-tropical cyclone by Monday of next week.

Finally, we are continuing to closely monitor a cluster of thunderstorms around 1,000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery shows that these thunderstorms are organizing themselves around a low-level center and a tropical depression should form later today. Once this happens, it should become a tropical storm over the weekend and if so, its name would be Leslie. At this point, the system looks to take a path northeast of the Leeward Islands and then eventually recurve east of Bermuda. However, since the system has not formed yet, computer forecast models can still be quite unreliable in determining the track of this system. Thus, Bermuda and the Leeward Islands may still end up being impacted by this system over the next few days so those with interests in these areas should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system.


By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski



Hurricane "Ileana" is holding a CAT 1 classification out in the East Pacific, but it is not forecast to become a threat as it is tracking out into the open Pacific, where it is presently forecast to diminish.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


quote:

Ileana a Hurricane, But Not for Long

Aug 30, 2012 2:16 AM

Hurricane Ileana continues to track northwestward over the eastern Pacific Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm should maintain its hurricane status over the next 12 hours or so as it tracks through an area of low wind shear and fairly warm ocean waters.

However, by Thursday evening, the northwestward track of Ileana will begin to take the system over cooler waters. This cooler water will cause Ileana to weaken back to a tropical storm sometime Thursday evening. As the system continues this general northwestward motion on Friday into the weekend, it will continue to weaken as it moves over increasingly cooler ocean waters. By the end of the weekend, Ileana will either be downgraded to a tropical depression or remnant low pressure area.

Aside from Ileana, we are monitoring a cluster of showers and thunderstorms that extends westward from Central America several hundred miles into the East Pacific. Satellite imagery shows this area of thunderstorms is highly disorganized at this time. However, further organization is possible over the next few days as this cluster of thunderstorms generally drifts off to the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Elsewhere across the East Pacific Basin, no tropical development is expected for at least the next 24 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski




 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Aug 31, 2012 2:34 pm  Reply with quote  

As "Isaac" winds down and moves north, "Kirk" is tracking at CAT 2 out in the open Atlantic, and the latest named storm "Leslie" has earned its status as a Tropical Storm. "Leslie" is presently predicted to stay out in the open Atlantic as well, posing no threat to the US.





http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic
quote:

Tropical Rainstorm Isaac Soaking Mississippi Valley; Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie in the Central Atlantic
Aug 31, 2012 5:18 AM

The center of Isaac will move more northward through Arkansas today and into Missouri tonight. The rainstorm will then move northeast towards St. Louis on Saturday, into Illinois Saturday night, and then fall apart across Indiana by Sunday night.

Areas east of the center will be affected by heavy rain bands through Friday. These rain bands will produce localized tropical storm-force wind gusts and isolated tornadoes to the east and northeast of the storm's center. The threat for these gusty rain bands and tornadoes will spread through Arkansas today. Heavy and flooding rainfall will likely continue to be the main threat associated with Isaac the next few days as tropical rains will continue well inland from the rest of today through Sunday. An average of 4-8 inches of rain can occur today and tomorrow along and to the east of the track of Isaac's center. This swath of heavy rain will then diminish somewhat through Saturday and Sunday, but rainfall totals greater than 4 inches through Sunday should still occur across much of Missouri, southern and central Illinois and into southern half of Indiana. Although much of this region has been affected by drought this summer and will welcome this rainfall, too much rain falling at once onto dry and hard soil will create some serious flooding issues as we head into the Labor Day weekend.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Kirk has strengthened quickly yesterday. This tropical cyclone will continue to track northwestward across the open waters of the central Atlantic, and it will have the potential to garner major hurricane status today or this weekend. The system is far from land as it is over 1,000 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and around 1,500 miles west of the Azores. Kirk will eventually take a more northward and then northeastward turn by the end of the weekend as a strong upper-level system approaches from the west. Eventually Kirk will move over cooler waters and experience strong shear from the upper-level system. This will cause it to merge with a cold front over the northeast Atlantic. At that time Kirk should become a non-tropical storm system.

Finally, Tropical Depression 12 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Leslie yesterday afternoon and has now become a strong tropical storm. This newly developed tropical cyclone continues to evolve and could become a hurricane this weekend. Current computer forecast information suggests the system should take a course northeast of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and then eventually turn more northward hopefully bypassing Bermuda to the east. However, since the system is just now developing, computer forecast models can still be quite unreliable in determining the long-term track of newly formed tropical cyclones. So, those with interests in the Leeward Islands and Bermuda should continue to closely monitor the progress of this system.


By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski; Updated By AccuWeather Meteorologist Erik Pindrock; Updated By DJ Hoffman




"Ileana" holds as a CAT 1 presently but is forecast to diminish out in the East Pacific's cooler waters...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:


Ileana Maintains Hurricane Strength

Aug 31, 2012 6:07 AM

Although the cloud tops of Ileana have continued to warm, the storm has maintained hurricane strength early this morning as it moves northwest at 7 mph. Ileana is forecast to turn more to the west later today and tomorrow. However, some models show the storm moving northwest over the next few days. Either way, slow weakening is anticipated and Ileana should fully dissipate in the next four or five days. Elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific, a large area of disturbed weather remains disorganized south of the southern Mexican coast. Some slow development is possible over the next few days.





 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Sep 01, 2012 2:02 pm  Reply with quote  

"Isaac" continues to soak areas from the mid-west to the eastern seaboard as it losses its tropical status. Potential flooding remains a threat from this storm.
Hurricane "Kirk" has lost some steam now holding a CAT 1 classification out in the open Atlantic, posing no real threat to land areas.
Tropical Storm "Leslie" is on the verge of Hurricane classification as it progress, and although it is a massive system as seen in satellite imagery expert reports project it too will stay well off shore but may become a threat to Bermuda.




http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash







http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Tropical Rainstorm Isaac; Kirk and Leslie in the Atlantic

Sep 1, 2012 7:29 AM

The center of Isaac has moved northward into Missouri tonight. The large area of rain associated with the rainstorm continues to spread north and east. The center of the rainstorm will move northeast towards St. Louis on Saturday, into Illinois on Saturday night, and then falls apart across Indiana by Sunday night. The rain will spread into western Illinois, northern Missouri, southeastern Iowa and even northeastern Kansas tonight and expand farther east on Saturday and Sunday. Rain bands north and east of the center will produce localized strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes to the east and northeast of the storm's center. The threat for these gusty rain bands and tornadoes will affect parts of Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee tonight. Localized heavy and flooding rainfall will likely continue to be the main threat associated with Isaac the next few days. An average of 4-8 inches of rain can fall mostly north and east of the track of Isaac's center. This swath of heavy rain will become more fragmented this weekend with rainfall totals closer to 4 inches through Sunday across much of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Although much of this region has been affected by drought this summer and will welcome this rainfall, too much rain falling at once onto dry and hard soil will create flash flooding this Labor Day weekend. Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Kirk has experienced some shear and has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. The hurricane is moving north and will start to move into cooler water today and experience stronger shear. Kirk will eventually take a more northeastward turn during the next 24 hours as a strong upper-level system approaches from the west. The combination of increased shear from that upper-level system and cooler water will cause Kirk to weaken further tomorrow and more so tonight and Sunday. Kirk should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday. This weakening and interaction with the upper-level system will cause Kirk to merge with a cold front over the northeastern Atlantic on Sunday night and Monday. At that time Kirk should become a non-tropical storm system. Tropical Storm Leslie is moving west-northwest and is a strong tropical storm. Shear over the system is causing the deep convective clouds to become displaced to the southwest of the storm's lower-level circulation. This slanted profile is not a favorable setup for intensification. If the shear decreases the storm should become a hurricane this weekend. Computer forecast information continues to project the system on a course northeast of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and then eventually on a path more northward. Recent computer forecasts show the upper-level system steering Kirk to the northeast lifting well north of Leslie leaving the tropical cyclone in weak or perhaps no steering flow on Sunday night and a good part of next week. As a result we are forecasting Leslie to slow down and crawl northward just southeast of Bermuda through early next week. So all interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of Leslie. By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski andUpdated by Meteorologist Mark Paquette




"Ileana" appears to be headed for a weak-end...

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:


Ileana Continues to Weaken Through This Weekend

Sep 1, 2012 7:25 AM

Tonight Ileana is nearly 510 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, it is forecast to track westerly through early next week. Ileana is over cooler waters and only has a few thunderstorms embedded within its circulation. Slow weakening will occur with even cooler waters ahead, and Ileana should fully dissipate in the next four or five days. Elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific, a large area of disturbed weather remains disorganized south of the southern Mexican coast. Some slow development is possible over the next few days. By Andy Mussoline, Meteorologist and Updated by Meteorologist DJ Hoffman





 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostMon Sep 03, 2012 1:28 pm  Reply with quote  

A new system has been named out in the East Pacific, what is now Tropical Storm "John" is spinning west of Mexico and it is forecast to continue away from land into the open cooler Pacific waters...


http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Tropical Storm John Forms

Sep 3, 2012 6:38 AM

Tropical Storm John continues to track northwestward away from the southern tip of Baja California as it passes near Socorro Island. Although the center of John is moving away from Mexico, it will brush the southern tip of Baja California today with some gusty outer rain bands.

As the system continues to track west-northwestward away from Mexico over the next few days, it will eventually move into an area of much cooler water by later tomorrow and tomorrow night. This will weaken the system back to a depression sometime tomorrow and then into a remnant low sometime tomorrow night or Wednesday.

Elsewhere across the East Pacific Basin, no development is expected in the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski





"Leslie" is still churning southeast of Bermuda holding as a Tropical Storm and is not expected to travel west enough to affect the US with more than high surf along the coast...
Still watching.........
http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic
quote:

Tropical Storm Leslie Slowly Moving Northward
Sep 3, 2012 5:38 AM

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to move north-northwestward at under 10 mph and is now located roughly 600 miles to the south-southeast of Bermuda. Leslie will continue to move in this general direction over the next few days and its forward speed will likely slow down some more as well. Current satellite imagery shows an area of robust thunderstorms associated with Leslie. However, strong upper-level wind aloft continue to hinder these thunderstorms from totally wrapping around the center of Leslie as the majority of the thunderstorms continue to be displaced to the south of the low-level center. This wind shear is forecast to even strengthen some more over the next day or two, so this will likely keep Leslie from intensifying all that much through at least Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, the wind shear over Leslie should weaken. Since the system will be in an area of warm waters, once the shear weakens, Leslie should intensify into a hurricane on Wednesday night. Leslie will then continue to slowly drift northward on Thursday and Friday in the general direction of Bermuda. By Friday and Saturday, Leslie should be close enough to the island to bring some rain and gusty winds. It is still uncertain exactly how close to Bermuda Leslie will pass, so anyone with interests in the island need to continue to carefully monitor the progress of Leslie over the next few days. In addition, rough surf will continue throughout the week along the East Coast of the United States with Leslie meandering well offshore.

Eventually, an upper trough pressing into eastern Canada by Sunday should begin to pick Leslie up in its upper wind flow. This will cause Leslie to begin to accelerate once again in a northward direction. Leslie should eventually turn northeastward out into the open waters of the North Atlantic then sometime next week. However, it is possible it could impact parts of Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland, with rain and wind as it begins to make this northeastward turn.

Aside from Tropical Storm Leslie, we are monitoring an area of low pressure roughly 1,200 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery shows this area of low pressure is rather compact and is only producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Although the area of thunderstorms is rather small, it is still possible that this area may further develop and organize over the next several days.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, no tropical development is expected over the next 24 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski
 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Sep 04, 2012 2:24 pm  Reply with quote  

"Leslie" is still gathering steam out in the Atlantic, and is now reported to be a potential threat to Bermuda as it gains in intensity. Expert reports now maintain only a slight risk this system may strike New England, but expectations are that it will be moved off shore by a "trough moving into the Eastern U.S. and Canada early next week"... Timing is everything...
At the time of this report no Navy track maps were available to this watcher.........


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Leslie to Threaten Bermuda This Weekend; Tropical Depression 13 Over Open Waters
Sep 4, 2012 7:04 AM

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to slowly drift northward with its center now around 550 miles to the south-southeast of Bermuda. Satellite imagery continues to show wind shear or strong upper-level winds affecting Leslie. These winds are displacing most of the thunderstorms associated with Leslie to the east and southeast of the low-level center. This northwest shear due to an upper-level high located west of Leslie will continue through Wednesday. This high will then begin to weaken by Wednesday night and Thursday which will lessen the shear across Leslie. Since the system is over warm waters, once the shear lessens a bit, Leslie will begin to strengthen and should become a hurricane on Wednesday night.

The forecast keeps Leslie on a slow north-northwest track this week with the center passing near Bermuda over the weekend, most likely on Saturday night. Eventually, Leslie should get picked up by a trough moving into the Eastern U.S. and Canada early next week, which will cause the storm to accelerate northward. Leslie should then affect Atlantic Canada as a weakening hurricane early next week. At this point, there is only a small chance Leslie directly impacts New England as the steering flow is likely to keep Leslie to the east of New England. That being said, rough surf and large waves from Leslie will continue to affect the entire East Coast of the United States for the remainder of this week into the weekend.

Impacts for Bermuda will include tropical storm-force winds to begin affecting the island on Friday night with heavy rain to follow later on Saturday. The worst of Leslie will likely be felt on Saturday evening into Sunday morning as the center may come as close as 50 miles to the island. Of course, the closer the center of Leslie comes to the island, the stronger the winds will be. However, we feel that Leslie will pass close enough on Saturday night to batter Bermuda with heavy rain and perhaps a period of hurricane-force winds sometime late on Saturday into the first part of the day on Sunday. Bermuda is well within the window of movement for our forecast track for Leslie and even the center passing over 100 miles away from the island will produce strong enough winds to cause damage and power outages as Leslie could be a Category 2 storm by this time. Thus, residents of Bermuda and anyone with interests in Bermuda need to take the necessary steps to prepare for hurricane-force winds this weekend.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 13 is nearly 1,500 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands over the open waters of the east-central Atlantic. The system is over fairly warm water and if it can overcome the marginal shear it could become a tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours as it tracks northwestward. Beyond Wednesday, shear is forecast to increase over the system. So any strengthening will halt by Wednesday night and Thursday due to strong shear. The strong shear will eventually rip the system apart and the system should degenerate quickly on Thursday and Friday. The tropical cyclone is not expected to impact any land while being an organized tropical system. If it does make it to tropical storm status, the next name on the list for the Atlantic Basin this season is Michael.

There are a few other areas worth watching for development across the Basin over the next several days. The first is a tropical wave near 39 west that has disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with it. It is tracking westward and will cross the Lesser Antilles by Saturday night. At this point, we feel this feature will likely remain rather disorganized. Another area of thunderstorms is apparent on satellite imagery over west-central Africa. This should move off the west coast of Africa sometime on Saturday and then continue to track westward early next week as a strong tropical wave that may eventually organize itself into a tropical system the first half of next week. Finally, some long range computer forecast models are hinting at surface low pressure developing over the Bay of Campeche sometime next week. Thus, we will need to monitor this area to see if it becomes better organized next week or just leads to increased thunderstorm development.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern for tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours across the Atlantic Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski




Out in the East Pacific "John" has begun to dissipate presently showing no threat to any land areas...
 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostWed Sep 05, 2012 2:17 pm  Reply with quote  

"Leslie" is still maintaining Tropical Storm classification, but is forecast to increase in intensity upward of a predicted CAT 2 Hurricane before targeting Bermuda. Navy track maps presently suggest a direct hit on that island...
"Michael" has also achieved Tropical Storm classification to the east of "Leslie" but as of yet is presently not expected to affect any land areas...


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

Tropical Storm "Michael".

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Leslie to Pass Near Bermuda This Weekend; Tropical Storm Michael No Threat to Land
Sep 5, 2012 7:57 AM

Tropical Storm Leslie is still crawling northward with its center now a little under 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Northwesterly shear continues to displace most of the convective clouds and thunderstorms associated with Leslie to the east and southeast of the low-level center. This northwesterly shear will continue today and tonight before lessening tomorrow and tomorrow night. Since the system is over warm waters, once the shear lessens a bit, Leslie will begin to strengthen and should become a hurricane later Thursday or Thursday night.

The forecast keeps Leslie on a slow north-northwest track through Friday evening. Current information continues to suggest Leslie will pass very close to Bermuda Saturday night and Sunday morning as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 90 to 100 mph. Eventually, Leslie should get picked up by an upper-level trough moving into the eastern U.S. and Canada early next week, which will cause the storm to accelerate northward. Most long-range forecast models suggest that Leslie will impact parts of Atlantic Canada early next week as a weakening hurricane. All interests in Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and even northeastern Quebec and Labrador should carefully monitor the track and strength of Leslie over the next few days. At this point, the only impacts that Leslie will have on the U.S. East Coast is rough surf and large waves for the rest of this week. The rough surf will increase the formation of rip currents.

Tropical storm-force winds will begin affecting Bermuda Friday night with heavy rain to follow later Saturday. The worst of Leslie will likely be felt across the island Saturday evening into Sunday morning as the center passes very close to the island. Of course, the closer the center of Leslie comes to the island, the stronger the winds will be. We feel that Leslie will pass close enough Saturday night to batter Bermuda with heavy rain and likely even a period of sustained hurricane-force winds sometime Saturday night into the first half of Sunday. Bermuda is well within the window of movement for our forecast track for Leslie and even the center passing over 100 miles away from the island will produce strong enough winds to cause damage and power outages as Leslie will likely be a Category 2 storm by this time. The current forecast track brings the center of Leslie around 50 miles from the island, which could bring around a 6- to 12-hour period of nearly sustained hurricane-force winds sometime between late Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Thus, residents of Bermuda and anyone with interests there need to take the necessary steps to prepare for hurricane-force winds this weekend.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Michael has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is drifting northward around 5 mph. The small, compact system is still well away from land, about 1,200 miles west-southwest of the Azores as of Wednesday morning. The system is over fairly warm water and should gradually strengthen over the next few days as it drifts northward over the open waters of the east-central Atlantic. Michael should become a Category 1 hurricane at some point over this weekend. Eventually, by Sunday and Monday, Michael will make more of a northwestward turn as Leslie expands and begins to exert its large circulation over the much smaller, more compact Michael. This process could begin to weaken Michael by early next week as the circulation of Leslie exerts stronger wind shear over Michael. In the meantime, we are not expecting Michael to impact any land masses over the next five days.

There are a few other areas worth watching for development across the basin over the next several days. The first is an area of thunderstorms over the western part of the Florida Panhandle. This upper-level feature was once part of Isaac a few days ago but broke off from the low-level circulation and drifted southward. As this feature emerges into the northern Gulf, there is a chance a low-level circulation may develop and the system could become better organized over the warm waters of the Gulf over the next few days. We are also watching a tropical wave approaching 45 west over the central Atlantic. At this point, we feel this wave will remain rather disorganized and will not develop. Another area worth watching over the next few days is the Bay of Campeche. Low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean currently will move into the Bay of Campeche by early next week. As this low interacts with the tail of an old frontal boundary, the area will have to be watched for further tropical development by the middle of next week.

Finally, thunderstorms currently showing up on satellite imagery over western Africa will move into the Atlantic either late Friday or Friday night and then begin to track westward as a tropical wave. Long-range computer forecast models continue to show that this tropical wave should become a more organized tropical system next week.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern for tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours across the Atlantic Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Sep 06, 2012 2:09 pm  Reply with quote  

Two Hurricanes now spinning in the Atlantic, and although one of them is a major CAT3 presently, neither are expected to impact the U.S. coast directly. "Michael" is the first Major Hurricane on the Atlantic side this year presently holding the CAT 3 classification out in the open Atlantic to the north and east of Hurricane "Leslie" which is presently holding CAT 1 status to the south and east of Bermuda.
"Leslie" is slowly moving toward Bermuda but present track maps take it slightly more east of the island now. At any rate it will be tracking close enough to take heed of the warnings given.
"Michael" appears smaller in scope on satellite imagery but of the two systems it is presently packing the bigger punch, but is much further out to sea and is expected to eventually weaken before making any land impacts.




http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Hurricane Leslie to Impact Bermuda This Weekend; Michael the First Major Hurricane of the Season
Sep 6, 2012 7:49 AM

Leslie continues to creep northward at around 1 or 2 mph with sustained winds of 75 mph. The center of Leslie is roughly 450 miles to the south-southeast of Bermuda. Westerly wind shear and dry air are eroding the western side of Leslie with most of the thunderstorm activity displaced to the east of the low-level center. In addition, because the storm has been sitting over nearly the same place for the last day or two, upwelling has caused ocean waters below Leslie to cool a bit. The combination of the shear, drier air and slightly cooler water will keep Leslie from intensifying much over the next 24 hours and even some slight weakening to a tropical storm is possible at some point today. Eventually, the shear across Leslie should weaken some tomorrow and this should allow Leslie to gradually ramp up to perhaps a Category 2 hurricane by Friday night or Saturday. The overall movement of Leslie between now and Saturday morning will remain slow with just a drift northward.

Beyond Saturday morning, the movement of Leslie becomes more challenging as most computer forecast models now show the system passing to the east of Bermuda Saturday night into Sunday. Some models take it nearly 200 miles east of Bermuda, but our forecast track takes it roughly 100 miles east of Bermuda. Either way, Bermuda remains well in the window of movement and all interests in Bermuda should be prepared to be impacted by a hurricane this weekend. However, the farther east Leslie goes of Bermuda, the less of a chance the island experiences sustained hurricane-force winds. However, heavy rain, rough surf and tropical storm-force winds with hurricane-force wind gusts are still likely to batter the island this weekend from later Saturday into Sunday. These winds would still be strong enough to cause widespread power outages and roof damage to structures.

After Sunday, an upper-level trough moving into the eastern U.S. will pick up Leslie in its steering flow and guide the storm northward. A more easterly track makes it less likely that Nova Scotia would be impacted by Leslie early next week. However, Newfoundland is still likely to be impacted early next week by Leslie, probably in the Monday night to Tuesday night timeframe. Leslie could still be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches Newfoundland despite its northern latitude. All interests across Atlantic Canada, but especially Newfoundland, should carefully monitor Leslie and prepare for heavy rain and the possibility of damaging winds that could down trees and cause power outages.

At this point, the only impacts that Leslie will have on the U.S. East Coast is rough surf and large waves for the rest of this week. The rough surf will increase the formation of rip currents.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Michael is now a Category 3 hurricane and is now the first major hurricane of the season thus far in the Atlantic Basin. Michael will maintain or even gradually strengthen over the next 24 hours or so as it is in a zone of warm waters and light wind shear. Michael continues to remain well removed from any land masses as the center of the storm is over 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. An upper-level system moving by to the north of Michael today will keep it moving slowly to the northeast. Eventually, Michael will make a northwestward turn on Friday into the weekend as the upper trough goes by and a ridge of high pressure builds in to the north of the hurricane. Eventually, Michael will move northwestward into cooler waters early next week and begin to experience wind shear due to the large circulation of Leslie off to its west. The combination of cooler waters and increasing winds aloft early next week will cause Michael to gradually weaken.

Aside from Leslie and Michael, there are two other areas we are watching across the Atlantic Basin for potential tropical development.

The first is an area of weak surface low pressure that is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This surface low is forming from a piece of an upper-level feature that was once part of Isaac. That being said, if this system redevelops and becomes a named tropical system, it would have a separate name. The next name on the list is Nadine in the Atlantic Basin. This low pressure area will drift south and southwestward over the next few days. Despite the fact it is over warm waters, an upper low east of Florida will continue to exert shear over this system which means if there is any further organization, it would be a slow process. Satellite imagery Thursday morning shows that at this time, thunderstorms are not becoming any better organized. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this area further Thursday afternoon. However, the mission may be cancelled if the area of thunderstorms does not show signs of further organization over the next several hours. If this low pressure area does eventually become more organized, its ultimate track would likely be a eastward or northeastward turn towards Florida on Sunday as a cold front and upper level trough will dip southward into the Gulf of Mexico.

The second area we are monitoring is a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Long range computer forecast models continue to show this cluster of storms becoming a strong tropical wave and eventually a more organized tropical system over the eastern Atlantic by early next week.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern for tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours across the Atlantic Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Sep 07, 2012 1:54 pm  Reply with quote  

Hurricane "Leslie" is presently holding at a CAT 1 classification. This system is still projected to maintain its strength and potentially increase in intensity as it moves closer to Bermuda, although now Navy track maps suggest it will move slightly more east of the island avoiding a direct hit but expert reports suggest it will still deliver Hurricane force winds & rains. In any case it will be too close for comfort soon...
Hurricane "Michael" remains a CAT 2 class storm but is still well out in the open Atlantic where it is predicted to remain and be pushed into unfavorable conditions where it is forecast to disipate before impacting any land.........


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Leslie Will Impact Bermuda This Weekend Passing by to the East; Michael Over Open Waters
Sep 7, 2012 7:03 AM

Hurricane Leslie continues to remain nearly stationary as it sits and spins around 400 miles to the south-southeast of Bermuda. An area of high pressure located to the north of Leslie today and tonight will continue to block its northward progress, but it should begin to move northward more tomorrow as the high pressure area shifts off to the east and moves away. This will allow Leslie to move northward into a zone of low wind shear and warmer water over the weekend which should allow Leslie to ramp up to a Category 2 storm sometime on Sunday or Sunday evening. After Leslie passes to the east of Bermuda on Sunday, it will accelerate north or northeastward early next week and head towards Atlantic Canada, likely passing near or over eastern Newfoundland Tuesday night.

As Leslie begins to move northward at a faster rate through the weekend, it will make its closest pass to Bermuda during the day on Sunday. By this time, Leslie should be a Category 2 storm. However, the center of Leslie will pass around 150 to perhaps as much as 200 miles east of Bermuda. This will keep sustained hurricane-force winds off to the east of the island. However, there will be tropical-storm-force gusts to around 60 mph affecting Bermuda late Saturday through Sunday night as the storm passes by and there even could be times of sustained tropical-storm-force winds on Sunday. In addition to the wind, rough surf and high waves will pound the island and there will be an average of 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts. The winds will be strong enough to cause power outages, downed trees and perhaps some minor roof damage to some structures. Wind and rain should subside late Sunday night into Monday across Bermuda as Leslie continues to pull away to the north.

Eventually, Leslie will approach Atlantic Canada on Tuesday and then move across Newfoundland Tuesday night before pushing away to the north and northeast on Wednesday. By this point in time, Leslie will be transitioning or will have already transitioned to a strong non-tropical storm. Nonetheless, Leslie may batter Newfoundland with heavy rain and strong winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Flooding rainfall and wind damage will be possible across Newfoundland during this time, especially across the Avalon Peninsula, including the city of St. John's.

Meanwhile, the only impacts that Leslie will have on the U.S. East Coast is rough surf and large waves that will continue to batter the coast through this weekend, especially from Cape Hatteras, N.C. on northward. The rough surf will increase the formation of rip currents.

Hurricane Michael will gradually weaken today and should be down to a Category 1 storm by late today or early tonight. Michael is a small hurricane and will remain well removed from any land mass through at least this weekend as it move off to the north and then northwest. Eventually, an upper level trough should pick up Michael in its steering flow by the middle of next week, causing Michael to accelerate northward towards cooler waters. This would cause Michael to weaken at a more rapid pace and it could be downgraded to a tropical storm by next Tuesday night or Wednesday. Eventually, this trough will likely recurve Michael to the east and transition Michael to a non-tropical system. At this point, it appears that this non-tropical low would likely pass to the north of the Azores late next week.

Aside from Leslie and Michael, there are two other areas we are watching across the Atlantic Basin for potential tropical development.

We continue to monitor an area of low pressure in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows that strongly winds aloft from the north have pushed thunderstorms associated with this surface low well to the south of the low center. If the northerly winds aloft can lessen today into tomorrow, this may allow thunderstorms to reform closer to the low center. Since this low pressure area is over warm waters, it would then have a chance to develop into a tropical depression or perhaps weak tropical storm for a brief period of time this weekend, but only if the northerly shear lessens. Eventually, the ultimate track of this feature would likely be a eastward or northeastward turn towards Florida on Sunday as a cold front and upper level trough will dip southward into the Gulf of Mexico and pick this low pressure area up into its flow. Either way, the moisture associated with this low could bring parts of Florida some locally heavy rainfall by Sunday.

The second area we are monitoring is a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa that is becoming the 31st tropical wave of the Atlantic season thus far. This wave will track westward over the next few days but any tropical development would wait until early next week once Michael lifts further to the north. Long range computer forecast models continue to show this wave developing into an organized tropical system once that happens. Eventually, computer model forecasts suggest this feature will take a northward turn across the central Atlantic, but it is much too early to be totally confident of that scenario for certain.

Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern for tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours across the Atlantic Basin.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostSat Sep 08, 2012 2:22 pm  Reply with quote  

Presently, "Leslie" has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm but it is forecast to re-intensify as it moves closer to Bermuda. Track maps suggest it will pass east of the island but will still deliver extensive winds and rain over the area. Hurricane "Michael" is presently maintaining CAT 2 classification but is not perceived to be a threat to any land areas and is forecast to diminish in the north Atlantic...



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?




http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Leslie to Pass East of Bermuda; Michael Not a Threat
Sep 8, 2012 6:49 AM
Leslie is a tropical storm located 350 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. The blocking high pressure area to the north appears to be moving eastward and as a result Leslie is moving northward, but at a slow pace. Now that Leslie is slowly moving northward it will be tracking over an area of lower wind shear and warmer water over the weekend. This should allow Leslie to re-intensify into a hurricane later on Saturday or Saturday night. Recent computer forecasts no longer show Leslie becoming a Category 2 hurricane but remaining a solid Category 1 as it passes east of Bermuda on Sunday evening. After Leslie passes to the east of Bermuda on Sunday evening, it will accelerate north or northeastward early next week and head towards eastern Newfoundland. Current forecast projections bring the storm just east of the Avalon Peninsula of southeastern Newfoundland on Tuesday night. By the time Leslie reaches southeastern Newfoundland it should be transitioning to a non-tropical system and while doing so it could also stall. Some of the latest model information shows the storm stalling for a time over the Avalon Peninsula on Tuesday night into Wednesday, then moves northeastward again. The center of Leslie will pass about 200 miles east of Bermuda. This will keep hurricane-force winds off to the east of the island. However, there can be tropical storm-force gusts of 40 to 60 mph affecting Bermuda on Sunday into Sunday night as the storm makes its closest approach to the island. In addition to the wind, rough surf and high waves will pound coastal sections of the island and there will be an average of 1-2 inches of rainfall. The winds might cause some minor damage and perhaps some power outages. The wind and rain should subside late on Sunday night into Monday across Bermuda as Leslie continues to pull away to the north. Meanwhile, the only impacts that Leslie will have on the U.S. East Coast is rough surf and large waves that will continue to batter the coast through this weekend, especially from Cape Hatteras, N.C., on northward. The rough surf will increase the formation of rip currents. Hurricane Michael remains a strong Category 2 hurricane. The tropical cyclone will gradually weaken this weekend and should be downgraded to a Category 1 storm sometime today. Michael is a small hurricane and will remain well removed from any land mass through at least this weekend as it moves off to the north and then northwest. Eventually, an upper-level trough should pick up Michael in its steering flow by the middle of next week, causing Michael to accelerate northward towards cooler waters. This would cause Michael to weaken at a more rapid pace and it could be downgraded to a tropical storm by next Tuesday night or Wednesday. Eventually, this trough will likely recurve Michael to the east and transition Michael to a non-tropical system. At this point, it appears that this non-tropical low would likely pass to the north of the Azores late next week. Aside from Leslie and Michael, there are two other areas we are watching across the Atlantic Basin for potential tropical development. We continue to monitor an area of low pressure in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows that strong winds aloft from the north continue to keep thunderstorms associated with this surface low well to the south of the low center. If the northerly winds aloft can lessen over the next 24 hours this may allow thunderstorms to reform closer to the low center. Since this low pressure area is over warm waters, it would then have a chance to develop into an organized tropical system this weekend, but only if the northerly shear lessens. Eventually, the ultimate track of this feature would likely be an eastward or northeastward turn towards Florida on Sunday as a cold front and upper-level trough will dip southward into the Gulf of Mexico and pick this low pressure area up into its flow. Either way, the moisture associated with this low could bring parts of Florida some locally heavy rainfall by Sunday. The second area we are monitoring is a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa associated with the 31st tropical wave of the Atlantic season thus far. This wave will track westward over the next few days, but any tropical development will probably hold off until early next week once Michael lifts farther to the north. Long range computer forecast models continue to show this wave developing into an organized tropical system once that happens. Eventually, computer model forecasts suggest this feature will take a northward turn across the central Atlantic, but it is still too early to be totally confident of that scenario for certain. Elsewhere, there are no areas of concern for tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours across the Atlantic Basin. By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matthew Rinde

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostTue Sep 11, 2012 2:21 pm  Reply with quote  

"Leslie" has run aground up in Newfoundland maintaining Tropical Storm status, but is quickly losing steam as it passes over the island...
"Michael" also has diminished down to a Tropical Storm and is projected to lose its classification soon as well, posing no threat to any land areas.


http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?





http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Leslie Battering Newfoundland; Michael Now a Tropical Storm
Sep 11, 2012 7:33 AM

Tropical Storm Leslie is crossing Newfoundland this morning battering the island with heavy rain and strong gusty winds. The storm is now moving north-northeastward at around 40 mph as it is quickly transitioning to a non-tropical storm system. There have been reports of power outages across the island this morning and maximum wind gusts recorded thus far early on Tuesday morning include a 73-mph wind gust in Argentia, Newfoundland, and a 81-mph wind gust in St. John's, Newfoundland. In addition, heavy rain is pounding western and central Newfoundland along and west of the track of Leslie's broad center of circulation. Storm total rainfall across parts of western Newfoundland in the Long Range Mountains can total 4-8 inches which will be enough to cause flash flooding and some washouts. The heavy rain and strongest winds across the island will continue over the next few hours, but due to the rapid movement of Leslie, rain and wind will subside quickly by the late morning and midday hours. By the afternoon, the rain will have ended and some sun will be returning across the island in the wake of Leslie. However, gusty west winds will continue throughout the afternoon before settling down this evening. Leslie will then complete its transition to a powerful non-tropical low pressure area this afternoon as it continues to move rapidly off to the northeast as the center passes to the south of Greenland tonight.

Meanwhile, the only impacts that Leslie will have on the east coast of the U.S. is swells from the storm will continue to come ashore today before beginning to subside tomorrow. This will lead to rough surf and dangerous rip currents, especially from Cape Hatteras, N.C., on northward.

Tropical Storm Michael continues to weaken rapidly as it moves northward at nearly 20 mph. The center of the storm is over 1,100 miles west of the Azores and Michael will remain well removed from any land masses the next few days. Michael will continue to weaken over the next 12-24 hours as wind shear and increasingly cooler waters will cause its thunderstorms to weaken and become more disorganized. By Wednesday, Michael will transition to a non-tropical low and become absorbed by an approaching frontal boundary.

We continue to monitor an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave between 40 and 45 west or roughly halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Satellite imagery continues to show rotation with this wave indicating there is a surface area of low pressure associated with it. Furthermore, thunderstorms continue to develop with this low pressure area as well. We expect this area to become a tropical depression within the next 12-24 hours as it tracks west-northwestward at around 15 mph. We then expect the system to continue to strengthen and it should become Tropical Storm Nadine within the next 48 hours or so. The steering flow will eventually allow the system to turn more northward and eventually northwestward towards an upper-level weakness across the central Atlantic. This would take the system into an area of warm waters and low shear, which will allow it to continue to strengthen and possibly even become a hurricane over the next few days. This path will also keep the system well removed from any land masses over the next five days as it would pass well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Finally, we are watching a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the west coast of Africa that should become another tropical wave in the next day or so. Long range computer model forecasts show that a surface area of low pressure may spin up in association with this tropical wave over the next few days as it moves across the eastern Atlantic.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostThu Sep 13, 2012 2:19 pm  Reply with quote  

There are two new named systems presently brewing, one in the Atlantic & one in the East Pacific.
Out in the open Atlantic is Tropical Storm "Nadine", and although this system is huge in scope on satellite imagery, & also forecast to potentially reach Hurricane strength it is predicted to continue to track north in the open Atlantic away from any land.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=sa&channel=vis&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=img&anim_method=flash



http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

quote:

Nadine Near Hurricane Strength in the Central Atlantic, No Threat to the US
Sep 13, 2012 6:42 AM

Tropical Storm Nadine is approximately 800 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and the system is tracking northwestward around 15 mph. Nadine has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and satellite imagery suggests it is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane and should do so later today. Nadine should then continue to strengthen some more tonight into tomorrow as it makes a more northward turn towards a weakness in the upper-level wind flow pattern. Eventually, Nadine will turn due north and then northeastward this weekend, staying along or to the east of 55 degrees west. This path will continue to keep Nadine well removed from any landmasses for the next five days.

As far as the track of Nadine is concerned, the system will continue to remain over the open waters of the central Atlantic. The system will make a more northward turn later Thursday into Friday as it heads towards a break in the upper-level ridge located to its north. Eventually, Nadine will turn north or even northeast by the end of the weekend as an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic will begin to steer Nadine. This track will keep Nadine well northeast of the Lesser Antilles and will keep the system away from any land masses for at least the next five days.

Aside from Nadine, we are also watching a surface trough of low pressure just off the east coast of Florida right now. Satellite imagery shows this feature is produce showers and thunderstorms across South Florida, the Florida Straits and northwestern Bahamas. Although this disturbance may produce some locally heavy rain in these areas today, upper-level winds are likely too strong for this system to ever become better organized.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, we do not expect any tropical development for at least the next 24 hours.
By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski



Out in the East Pacific waters is Tropical Storm "Kristy", this system is off the west coast of Mexico and it is not expected to track near land as it progresses toward less favorable conditions in its projected path.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?





http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/east-pacific

quote:

Tropical Storm Kristy South of Baja California
Sep 13, 2012 6:01 AM

Tropical Storm Kristy continues to move west-northwest around 10 mph with its center now around 300 miles to the south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Kristy should continue to gradually strengthen the next day or two as its general west-northwestward motion continues. By tomorrow afternoon, Kristy will be a strong tropical storm and could even reach hurricane status at some point later tomorrow or tomorrow night. Kristy will then gradually weaken heading through the weekend into early next week as the system moves into a zone of increasingly cooler waters. By next Monday, Kristy will likely dissipate to just a remnant low pressure area.

Aside from some rough surf and rip currents along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula, Kristy should not have any impact on any land masses.

Elsewhere across the East Pacific Basin, we are not expecting any tropical development over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski

 View user's profile Send private message
starman1





Joined: 29 Sep 2005
Posts: 1583
Location: Earth
PostFri Sep 14, 2012 2:19 pm  Reply with quote  

No significant changes since last report.......
 View user's profile Send private message

Post new topic Reply to topic
Forum Jump:
Jump to:  
Goto page Previous  
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next

All times are GMT.
The time now is Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:07 pm


  Display posts from previous:      




© 21st Century Thermonuclear Productions
All Rights Reserved, All Wrongs Revenged, Novus Ordo Seclorum, All Your Base