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LTC8K6
Joined: 20 Oct 2000
Posts: 267
Location: Tar Heel State |
Sore Throat is at it again!
 Wed Jan 17, 2001 9:57 pm
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Sore throat is again making a big deal out of the CDC's decision to alter the way the weekly MMWR reports are made. He is scaring people by saying the CDC is trying to cover up flu deaths. The CDC raised the baseline to compensate for a new definition of influenza. They also adjusted the chart baselines from prior to the change. This is so a direct chart to chart comparison can be made. I find no conspiracy here. Those who know statistics can go to Carnicom's site and read Sore Throat's case.
http://pub8.ezboard.com/fchemtrailschemtrails.showMessage?topicID=4102.topic
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/diseases/flu/weeklyarchives/weekly40.htm
"Prior to the 1999-2000 season, a new case definition for a pneumonia and influenza death was introduced in the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System. It was recognized that one potential effect of using this case definition was to increase P&I mortality measurement levels in comparison to previous seasons. During the summer of 2000, the P&I mortality data were analyzed to determine if the modified case definition had affected mortality estimates. On the basis of this analysis, we estimate that there was an approximately 0.8% upward shift in 1999-2000 mortality estimates. The 0.8% shift does not represent a true increase in mortality. To adjust for this upward shift in mortality estimates, the 122 cities P&I mortality baseline and epidemic threshold for the 2000-01 season have been adjusted upward as well."
If it's such a big friggin' secret, why did they tell us they did it?
[Edited 1 times, lastly by LTC8K6 on 01-17-2001] |
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Thermit
Joined: 08 Jul 2000
Posts: 3130
Location: Texas |
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Wed Jan 17, 2001 10:23 pm
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Old graph:
New graph:
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marcinko
Joined: 09 Jan 2001
Posts: 31
Location: orlando, fl, usa |
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Mon Jan 22, 2001 6:51 am
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i was listening to cable news last weekend )cnn or fox news) and they stated that the the flu season was moderate this year. i guess we can add a few hundred more people to the conspiracy
d.m. |
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Random
Joined: 11 Dec 2000
Posts: 25
Location: Bournemouth, UK |
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Mon Jan 22, 2001 5:33 pm
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Anyone here ever studied statistics or epidemiology? This looks like a very normal graph for a real, cyclic system. |
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toxdoc
Joined: 17 Jan 2001
Posts: 23
Location: Williamstown, KY,USA |
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Tue Jan 23, 2001 2:27 am
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Also, couldn't he state his case a little better if he had posted data for the closest date (01/06/2000).
CDC didn't lower the threshold outright, it's still 1.65 times the baseline rate. It was the result in a change of reporting. Besides, whatever the "threshold" number the data don't change from graph to graph. If we were trying to hide something we'd at least correct the data to match. |
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