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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
Scripps Study Find Greenhouse Gases Proximate Cause of Ocean
 Mon Feb 21, 2005 6:49 pm
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http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2005/02/21/51777.htm
Note source of this article - the Insurance Journal -
Now just how much "political" influence do you think that industy has?
What will they be lobbying for to limit their loses due to accelerating, anthropogenic devived climate change?
Scripps Study Finds Greenhouse Gases Proximate Cause of Ocean Warming
Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, and their colleagues have produced the first clear scientific evidence that human activity-and very little else- is warming the world's oceans.
The Scripps' report, coming from one of the world's leading ocean research institutions, may turn out to be the "smoking gun" that finally establishes the link between greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other pollutants) and the increase in temperature worldwide, or global warming.
The authors contend that their results clearly indicate that the oceans' warming is produced "anthropogenically," i.e. by human activities. The study, conducted by Tim Barnett and David Pierce, along with colleagues at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), used a combination of computer models and real-world "observed" data to capture signals of the penetration of greenhouse gas-influenced warming in the oceans, a Scripps bulletin stated.
The findings were reported at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), held in Washington D.C. Dr. Barnett, a research marine physicist in the Climate Research Division at Scripps, stated: "This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past and likely future evolution." He admitted to being "stunned" by the results because the computer models reproduced the penetration of the warming signal in all the oceans. "The statistical significance of these results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much ofthe uncertainty about the reality of global warming," he continued.
In an interview with the BBC Barnett noted that the world's oceans cover around 71 percent of the earth's surface, and that what happens in them therefore has significant consequences on the world's weather and climate. The study used advanced computer models of climate "to calculate human-produced warming over the last 40 years in the world's oceans," said Scripps' bulletin. "In all of the ocean basins, the warming signal found in the upper 700 meters predicted by the models corresponded to the measurements obtained at sea with confidence exceeding 95 percent. The correspondence was especially strong in the upper 500 meters of the water column."
The bulletin noted that it is this "high degree of visual agreement and statistical significance that leads Barnett to conclude that the warming is the product of human influence. Efforts to explain the ocean changes through naturally occurring variations in the climate or external forces- such as solar or volcanic factors--did not come close to reproducing the observed warming."
If the observations Barnett and his colleagues have identified continue, they will "produce broad-scale changes across the atmosphere and land." Rapidly melting glaciers in South America and China could greatly reduce the amount of water available in the dry summer months. In the Western U.S. warmer conditions could fundamentally alter the snow pack upon which many Western States rely for water.
"The new ocean study, taken together with the numerous validations of the same models in the atmosphere, portends far broader changes," Barnett stated. "Other parts of the world will face similar problems to those expected--and being observed now--in the western U.S. The skill demonstrated by the climate models in handling the changing planetary heat budget suggests that these scenarios have a high enough probability of actually happening that they need to be taken seriously by decision makers."
While it may be an exaggeration to say that the world's decision makers have been "dithering" over climate change, the only concrete result so far has been the Kyoto protocol, which went into force last week (See IJ Website Feb.17), at least for the countries that have signed up to it. The United States, Brazil and China are notably absent. If the Scripps report convinces those who are still unsure about the causes of global warming that it originates from greenhouse gases, the world will owe Dr. Barnett and his colleagues a great debt.
More details concerning the report and the effects of global warming can be obtained on the Scripps' Website at: http://scripps.ucsd.edu/; or on the AAAS Website at: http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2005/0217warmingwarning.shtmle. For general information, see also the United Nations Environment Program Web site at: http://www.unep.org/, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at: http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm. |
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one_son_of_helaman
Joined: 16 Feb 2005
Posts: 99
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| deserts to oasis?
Mon Feb 21, 2005 8:05 pm
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I'm not that enformed but what i have seen happening in the pacific north west is that the once well watered areas are almos all going into a long period of drought and the soutern USA. the deserts are becoming more like an oasis, not to be a bible thumper but this sound a lot like some of the things fortold to happen in the latter days just before the malinium of peace!
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There is no box w/out walls to look beyond!!! |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Panelists Decry Bush Science Policies
Mon Feb 21, 2005 10:01 pm
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http://www.truthout.org/docs_2005/E022105Y.shtml
Panelists Decry Bush Science Policies
Washington - The voice of science is being stifled in the Bush administration, with fewer scientists heard in policy discussions and money for research and advanced training being cut, according to panelists at a national science meeting.
Speakers at the national meeting of the American Association for Advancement of Science expressed concern Sunday that some scientists in key federal agencies are being ignored or even pressured to change study conclusions that don't support policy positions.
The speakers also said that Bush's proposed 2005 federal budget is slashing spending for basic research and reducing investments in education designed to produce the nation's future scientists.
And there also was concern that increased restrictions and requirements for obtaining visas is diminishing the flow to the U.S. of foreign-born science students who have long been a major part of the American research community.
Rosina Bierbaum, dean of the University of Michigan School of Natural Resources and Environment, said the Bush administration has cut scientists out of some of the policy-making processes, particularly on environmental issues.
"In previous administrations, scientists were always at the table when regulations were being developed," she said. "Science never had the last voice, but it had a voice."
Issues on global warming, for instance, that achieved a firm scientific consensus in earlier years are now being questioned by Bush policy makers. Proven, widely accepted research is being ignored or disputed, she said.
Government policy papers issued prior to the Bush years moved beyond questioning the validity of global warming science and addressed ways of confronting or dealing with climate change.
Under Bush, said Bierbaum, the questioning of the proven science has become more important than finding ways to cope with climate change.
One result of such actions, said Neal Lane of Rice University, a former director of the National Science Foundation, is that "we don't really have a policy right now to deal with what everybody agrees is a serious problem."
Among scientists, said Lane, "there is quite a consensus in place that the Earth is warming and that humans are responsible for a considerable part of that" through the burning of fossil fuels.
And the science is clear, he said, that without action to control fossil fuel use, the warming will get worse and there will be climate events that "our species has not experienced before."
Asked for comment, White House spokesman Ken Lisaius said, "The president makes policy decisions based on what the best policies for the country are, not politics. People who suggest otherwise are ill-informed."
Kurt Gottfried of Cornell University and the Union of Concerned Scientists said a survey of scientists in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service found that about 42 percent said they felt pressured to not report publicly any findings that do not agree with Bush policies on endangered species. He said almost a third of the Fish and Wildlife researchers said they were even pressured not to express within the agency any views in conflict with the Bush policies.
"This administration has distanced itself from scientific information," said Gottfried. He said this is part of a larger effort to let politics dominate pure science.
He said scientists in the Environmental Protection Agency have been pressured to change their research to keep it consistent with the Bush political position on environmental issues.
Because of such actions, he said, it has become more difficult for federal agencies to attract and retain top scientific talent. This becomes a critical issue, said Gottfried, because about 35 percent of EPA scientists will retire soon and the Bush administration can "mold the staff" of the agency through the hiring process.
Federal spending for research and development is significantly reduced under the proposed 2005 Bush budget, the speakers said.
"Overall the R&D budget is bad news," said Bierbaum.
She said the National Science Foundation funds for graduate students and for kindergarten through high school education has been slashed.
NASA has gotten a budget boost, but most of the new money will be going to the space shuttle, space station and Bush's plan to explore the moon and Mars. What is suffering is the space agency's scientific research efforts, she said.
"Moon and Mars is basically going to eat everybody's lunch," she said.
Lane said Bush's moon and Mars exploration effort has not excited the public and has no clear goals or plans.
He said Bush's moon-Mars initiative "was poorly carried out and the budget is not there to do the job so science (at NASA) will really get hurt." |
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one_son_of_helaman
Joined: 16 Feb 2005
Posts: 99
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Mon Feb 21, 2005 11:22 pm
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this global warming crap all sounds big and bad and all but what is the possablity that we are just getting ready for a shift in the polaraty of the earth or even a massave shift in the techtonic plates. much of this i possable and we mussn't close our minds to all the options that may be occuring!
thats my opinion now whats yours? 
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There is no box w/out walls to look beyond!!! |
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Swamp Gas
Joined: 06 Jun 2001
Posts: 4254
Location: On a Hill in the Lowlands |
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Tue Feb 22, 2005 1:20 am
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Well, Shawn, Global Warming Hoaxes are a hoax perpetrated by oil and enegry companies, backed up by decidely Oil Soaked governments. Humans activities are accelerating the process that may or may not be a natural phenonena. When Neo-Cons like Rush Limbaigh perpetrate the hoax of no Global Warming, I take notice, since 90% of what comes out of people like him are sponsered by Globalization Companies.
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Heard it from a pilot who spoke real gooooood! |
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one_son_of_helaman
Joined: 16 Feb 2005
Posts: 99
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Tue Feb 22, 2005 7:22 pm
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i just don't se it as global warming i see it ast goabal change that is fortold by the bible and we cannot chang it  
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There is no box w/out walls to look beyond!!! |
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Swamp Gas
Joined: 06 Jun 2001
Posts: 4254
Location: On a Hill in the Lowlands |
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Tue Feb 22, 2005 7:41 pm
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quote:
Originally posted by one_son_of_helaman
i just don't se it as global warming i see it ast goabal change that is fortold by the bible and we cannot chang it
Please don't bring Fairy tales like the bible, or Baron Munchausen or Pecos Bill into a discusiion of Climatic science. It's easy to off profound posting from Sore Throat by just saying "it's in the bible". For us that don't adhere to that book, you should be using common terminology.
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Heard it from a pilot who spoke real gooooood! |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Calif. Storms Spawn Tornadoes; Six Dead
Tue Feb 22, 2005 8:01 pm
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http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=521930
Tornadoes in California ? ! ?! Sure, quite common, no problem, move along...just some "natural" weather variability.
It sounds like a little REALITY right out of the script for "The Day After Tomorrow".
Calif. Storms Spawn Tornadoes; Six Dead
Series of Deadly Storms Spawn Tornadoes and Landslides Across California, Leaving Six Dead
By DAISY NGUYEN Associated Press Writer
The Associated Press
LOS ANGELES Feb 22, 2005 — A deadly series of storms across California spawned everything from tornadoes to avalanches, flooding freeways with steady rain and sending rivers of mud crashing through homes.
At least six deaths have been blamed on the storm, including a woman buried by an avalanche north of Lake Tahoe and others who were victims of landslides, traffic accidents, falling trees and flooding.
Mudslides forced Amtrak officials to suspend service from Los Angeles to Santa Barbara at least through Tuesday. Service between Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo wasn't expected to resume until next Monday. During the weekend, Metrolink also had canceled rail service for parts of the area because of flooding.
Forecasters said Tuesday that the long-lived storm system would bring at least another inch of rain to Southern California but was losing strength and could move out of the region by Wednesday afternoon. A flash flood watch remained in effect Tuesday for much of Southern California.
"I think we've probably seen the worst of the storm," said Ted MacKenchnie, a National Weather Service meteorologist.
Dozens of homes were evacuated or red-tagged marked as uninhabitable because they were threatened by sliding hillsides, authorities said.
Northern California also was hit by severe thunderstorms, hail and at least two afternoon tornadoes in the Sacramento area that uprooted trees and damaged roofs and fences.
The California Highway Patrol reported more than 300 crashes in a 14-hour period in Southern California, compared with 50 to 75 accidents on a normal, dry day.
A section of the Hollywood Freeway in Los Angeles was shut down for several hours late Monday because it was flooded by as much as 5 feet of water.
The wild weather came from a series of storms that began battering the state on Thursday, dumping 6.5 inches of rain in downtown Los Angeles.
A total of 31.40 inches of rain has fallen since July 1, the start of the region's annual "water year" measuring period, the fifth wettest on record. The record is 38.18 inches, set in 1883-84.
The consecutive days of rain has proven too much for saturated hillsides in Southern California.
A mudslide ripped into the bedroom of a home in the San Fernando Valley, killing a man by burying him under four feet of mud.
And in Orange County's rural Silverado Canyon area east of Irvine, boulders crashed into an apartment and crushed a 16-year-old girl, Caitlin Oto.
"If you saw the damage up there, it almost looks like the houses exploded, the way it went completely through the homes," said Capt. Stephen Miller of the Orange County Fire Authority.
In Northern California, 45-year-old Gerilyn Marie Ewing, of Reno, Nev., was killed by an avalanche Sunday while skiing between the Sugar Bowl and Squaw Valley ski resorts north of Lake Tahoe. Up to 20 inches of snow had fallen in the area since Thursday.
Harbor Patrol officers had to battle high waves and wind early Monday off the coast of Santa Barbara to rescue a man whose sailboat was adrift with no mast and no engine power. They couldn't get close enough to pull him from the vessel, so they had him jump overboard and then dove in after him.
"You couldn't see what was coming. We were holding on for dear life," said Officer Jan Martinez. "The waves were coming at such close intervals we'd push up through one, then come down just as another one was breaking on us."
In Glendale, a foothill community north of Los Angeles, about 30 people in 11 homes were evacuated early Monday because of mudslides and flooding.
And in the coastal community of La Conchita, where a landslide killed 10 people last month, six of the 39 people still living in the town elected to leave because of the heavy rain and a steady flow of mud on the bluffs behind the town, said Capt. Bill Flannigan of the Ventura County Sheriff's Department. However, no major new slides were reported in the county. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Sun's Temper Blamed for Arctic Ozone Loss
Tue Mar 01, 2005 8:27 pm
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http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/050301_ozone_thinning.html
Question: To what degree does the exhaust from aircraft contribute to nitrogen in the upper atmosphere?
Sun's Temper Blamed for Arctic Ozone Loss
By Robert Roy Britt
LiveScience Senior Writer
posted: 01 March 2005
11:01 am ET
A dramatic thinning of Earth's protective ozone layer above the Arctic last year was the result of intense upper-level winds and an extra dose of space weather, scientists said Tuesday.
Ozone, which screens out some of the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation, declined by up to 60 percent in the stratosphere over high northern latitudes in the spring of 2004. Officials issued a health warning earlier this year for residents of the far North.
In a new study, scientists conclude that an intense round of solar storms around Halloween in 2003 was at the root of the problem. Charged particles from the storms triggered chemical reactions that increased the formation of extra nitrogen in the upper stratosphere, some 20 miles up. Nitrogen levels climbed to their highest in at least two decades.
A massive low-pressure system that confines air over the Arctic then conspired to deplete ozone.
Upper-atmosphere winds associated with the system, called the polar stratospheric vortex, sped up in February and March of 2004 to the fastest speeds ever recorded, the new study found. The spinning vortex allowed nitrogen gas to sink from the high stratosphere, some 20 miles up, to lower altitudes.
The nitrogen gas is known to destroy ozone.
"This decline was completely unexpected," said Cora Randall, a physicist at the University of Colorado, Boulder who led the study. "The findings point out a critical need to better understand the processes occurring in the ozone layer."
Researchers from Canada and Europe contributed to the study, which drew data from seven satellites. The results are detailed in the March 2 online issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.
Ozone is a form of oxygen. Its protective qualities make life as we know it possible. (Near the ground, ozone plays the opposite role, being the main component in smog.)
The upper-level ozone layer has thinned dramatically in the Southern Hemisphere in recent decades, creating a dangerous hole through which UV rays stream. The decline is due largely to man-made chlorofluorocarbons released into the atmosphere.
The new study suggests a better understanding is needed of how the Sun itself alters the ozone layer.
"No one predicted the dramatic loss of ozone in the upper stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in the spring of 2004," Randall said. "That we can still be surprised illustrates the difficulties in separating atmospheric effects due to natural and human-induced causes."
The thinning of the Arctic ozone layer continues, owing in part to cold temperatures in the stratosphere, according to a separate recent study that suggests a northern hole could develop as a twin to the southern one.
Exposure to excessive UV radiation can cause skin cancer. Animals and plants can be adversely affected, too. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Insurers foot record bill in '04 top disaster year
Tue Mar 01, 2005 8:29 pm
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http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/story.jsp?id=2005030111260002082775&dt=20050301112600&w=RTR&coview=
Insurers foot record bill in '04 top disaster year
ZURICH, March 1 (Reuters) - A deadly combination of global warming and a rapidly increasing world population made 2004 the most expensive year to date for insurers, a Swiss Re study published on Tuesday shows.
An unusually high number of storms in the United States and Japan, December's devastating tsunami waves and other natural and man-made catastrophes killed more than 300,000 people last year, causing massive damages of $123 billion.
Insurers had to pay a record $49 billion chunk of the total damages, the study showed, making 2004 a more expensive year for the sector than 2001, when the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States alone caused a $20 billion loss.
Last year's damages were not dominated by a single event, however. A total of 13 U.S. hurricanes cost insurers $32 billion, while 10 typhoons in Japan added another $6 billion. The tsunami added another $5 billion to insured losses.
Earlier Swiss Re estimates had already shown 2004 to be the most expensive year for insurers even before the Dec. 26 tsunami wreaked havoc in countries lining the Indian Ocean.
The high damages were partly due to higher temperatures, which caused more windstorms. 2004 was the fourth-warmest year around the world since regular temperature measurements started in 1861, Swiss Re said.
The damage was aggravated by growing populations with higher concentrations of assets in exposed coastal areas. |
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Jeanie
Joined: 18 Nov 2001
Posts: 1323
Location: North East U.S.A. |
| Where Real Intelligence Lies
Wed Mar 02, 2005 11:30 pm
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Posted by Helaman:::"not to be a bible thumper but this sound a lot like some of the things fortold to happen in the latter days just before the millenium of peace!"
Helaman; You needn"t apologize for quoting a thought from the bible, it, being written under inspiration has a heck of a lot more of quality wisdom than anything I see being demonstrated around the world. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| No arctic ozone hole, Odin says
Fri Mar 04, 2005 2:32 am
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http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=16297
No arctic ozone hole, Odin says
Data from the Swedish Odin satellite indicate that no arctic ozone hole will appear this winter, despite fears to that effect.
- This winter the stratosphere in the Arctic region has been unusually cold, says Donal Murtagh, professor of Global Environmental Measurements at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden and responsible for atmospheric science research on Odin. The low temperature created large amounts of zone-destroying chlorine compounds in the stratosphere at the end of January. professor, which indicated a risk of the appearance of an "ozone hole".
- We have speeded up Odin data reduction in order to be able predict whether or not an ozone hole is imminent. For this to occur low temperatures must prevail into March and the polar circulation vortex must be stable. But the temperature in the stratosphere is increasing, which releases nitrogen compounds from ice clouds over the pole. The nitrogen reacts with chlorine and thus prevents the chlorine from destroying the ozone.
- Only renewed cooling of the stratosphere could change the situation, but it is hard to see how this could happen, says professor Murtagh.
Since its launch in 2001 Odin has collected a vast amount of data about processes in the atmosphere relevant to the ozone layer and the Earth's climate. But Odin can also cast its microwave eye into space. Therefore its resources are divided equally between atmospheric scientist and astronomers.In addition to Sweden, France, Canada and Finland take part in the Odin project. The Swedish National Space Board recently decided to continue funding a fifth year of operations. Odin has been designed and developed by the Swedish Space Corporation and is operated by the company's ground station and control centre facilities. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Ozone decline stuns scientists
Fri Mar 04, 2005 2:36 am
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http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~53~2739235,00.html
Well, who are you going to believe? This issue certainly seems to be getting a lot of attention.
Ozone decline stuns scientists
By Katy Human and Kim McGuire
Denver Post Staff Writers
Solar flares and frigid temperatures are believed to be working with human chemicals to eat away at the protective ozone layer above the North Pole, surprising scientists who have been looking for evidence that the planet's ozone layer is healing.
The ozone layer protects Earth from dangerous ultraviolet radiation, which can cause skin cancer.
Last winter, Arctic ozone declined more precipitously than ever in the upper atmosphere, probably because of violent storms on the sun's surface, one team reports today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
And in recent days, a lower layer of ozone has undergone an extraordinary thinning because of a level of bitter cold (about minus-110 degrees Fahrenheit) rarely seen in the Arctic and manmade chemicals, researchers said. One Colorado scientist has raced north to document the event, expected to sputter out within days.
The two unusual findings have experts worried that they don't fully understand the dynamics of ozone depletion.
"I don't think we can be confident about whether or not we're seeing an ozone recovery or if we're attributing recovery to the correct causes," said Cora Randall, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado.
Randall and her colleagues studied a dramatic and unexpected drop in upper-level ozone levels last winter. A few months before the decline, massive solar storms had blasted high-energy particles toward Earth. Randall suspects the energetic particles helped create chemicals called nitrogen oxides, which are known ozone-gobblers.
Solar storms are natural, she said, but some scientists suspect humans also played a role in creating conditions that contributed to the historic ozone- depletion event.
Human-emitted chemicals are largely responsible for the massive ozone hole that has formed at lower levels in the Arctic atmosphere in recent days, experts said. There, unusually low temperatures are triggering reactions in which manmade chemicals quickly devour ozone, they said.
"Something like this only happens once every 20 years," said Russ Schnell, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder.
His agency deployed Andrew Clarke to a lab in Greenland, located under the area of sky where the ozone layer is diminishing. There, Clarke is lofting testing equipment into the sky with giant balloons. It will be weeks or months before the results are understood, he said. |
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