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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
Climate Change Is Faster and More Extreme' Than Feared
 Mon Oct 20, 2008 7:02 pm
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http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2008/10/20-9
Climate Change Is Faster and More Extreme' Than Feared
Climate change is happening much faster than the world's best scientists predicted and will wreak havoc unless action is taken on a global scale, a new report warns.
Arctic sea-ice in September 1979 and 2007, showing the biggest reduction since satellite surveillance began. (Photo: Fugro NPA Ltd)
by Paul Eccleston
'Extreme weather events' such as the hot summer of 2003, which caused an extra 35,000 deaths across southern Europe from heat stress and poor air quality, will happen more frequently.
Arctic sea-ice in September 1979 and 2007, showing the biggest reduction since satellite surveillance began. (Photo: Fugro NPA Ltd)Britain and the North Sea area will be hit more often by violent cyclones and the predicted rise in sea level will double to more than a metre, putting vast coastal areas at risk from flooding.
The bleak report from WWF - formerly the World Wildlife Fund - also predicts crops failures and the collapse of eco systems on both land and sea.
And it calls on the EU to set an example to the rest of the world by agreeing a package of challenging targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions to tackle the consequences of climate change and to keep any increase in global temperatures below 2C.
The agency says that the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - a study of global warming by 4,000 scientists from more than 150 countries which alerted the world to the possible consequences of global warming - is now out of date.
WWF's report, Climate Change: Faster, stronger, sooner [1], has updated all the scientific data and concluded that global warming is accelerating far beyond the IPCC's forecasts.
As an example it says the first 'tipping point' may have already been reached in the Arctic, where sea ice is disappearing up to 30 years ahead of IPCC predictions and may be gone completely within five years - something that hasn't occurred for a million years.
It could result in rapid and abrupt climate change rather than the gradual changes forecast by the IPCC.
The findings include:
* Global sea level rise could more than double from the IPCC's estimate of 0.59m by the end of the century.
* Natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, are losing their ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere faster than expected.
* Rising temperatures have already led to a major reduction in food crops resulting in losses of 40m tonnes of grain per year.
* Marine ecosystems in the North and Baltic Sea are being exposed to the warmest temperatures measured since records began.
* The number and intensity of extreme cyclones over the UK and North Sea are projected to increase, leading to increased wind speeds and storm-related losses over Western and Central Europe.
The report was issued to coincide with a meeting of EU Environment Ministers today to discuss new laws aimed at tackling climate change. Some countries, including Italy and Poland, have already rejected proposals for higher cuts in emissions claiming they are unaffordable and unrealistic when many countries are facing recession.
The UK is the only country so far to commit to a legally binding 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050 which the Government claims can be achieved by a switch to renewable energy sources - such as wind and wave - combined with a new generation of nuclear power stations.
In the report WWF urges the EU to commit to a reduction target of at least 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 without relying on offsetting overseas and to provide financial support so developing countries can cut their own emissions and prepare for unavoidable impacts of climate change.
WWF-UK's Head of Climate Change, Dr. Keith Allott, said: "Climate change is a major challenge to the future of mankind and the environment, and this sobering overview highlights just how critical it is that EU environment ministers, who are meeting today to discuss EU legislation to tackle climate change, commit to a strong climate and energy package, in order to ensure a low carbon future.
"If the European Union wants to be seen as leader at UN talks in Copenhagen next year, and to help secure a strong global deal to tackle climate change after 2012, then it must stop shirking its responsibilities and commit to real emissions cuts within Europe."
The report has been endorsed by Professor Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, the newly elected Vice Chair of the IPCC, who said: "It is clear that climate change is already having a greater impact than most scientists had anticipated, so it's vital that international mitigation and adaptation responses become swifter and more ambitious." |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| The Most Potent Unknown Greenhouse Gas Revealed
Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:45 am
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http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/oct2008/2008-10-24-01.asp
The Most Potent Unknown Greenhouse Gas Revealed
SAN DIEGO, California, October 24, 2008 (ENS) - A gas used in manufacture of flat panel televisions, computer displays, microcircuits, and thin-film solar panels is 17,000 times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and it is far more prevalent in the atmosphere than previously estimated.
The powerful greenhouse gas nitrogen trifluoride, NF3, is at least four times more widespread than scientists had believed, according to new research by a team at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego.
Using new analytical techniques, a team led by Scripps geochemistry professor Ray Weiss made the first atmospheric measurements of nitrogen trifluoride, NF3.
"Accurately measuring small amounts of NF3 in air has proven to be a very difficult experimental problem, and we are very pleased to have succeeded in this effort," Weiss said Thursday, announcing the results of his team's research.
The research findings will be published October 31 in "Geophysical Research Letters," a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
The amount of the gas in the atmosphere, which could not be detected using previous techniques, had been estimated at less than 1,200 metric tons in 2006. The new research shows the actual amount was 4,200 metric tons.
In 2008, about 5,400 metric tons of the gas was in the atmosphere, a quantity that is increasing at about 11 percent per year.
This rate of increase means that about 16 percent of the amount of the gas produced globally is being emitted into the atmosphere, the researchers estimate.
Emissions of NF3 were thought to be so low that the gas was not considered to be a significant potential contributor to global warming.
Nitrogen trifluoride was not covered by the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions signed by 182 countries, although three other fluoride compounds are covered.
The protocol governs the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide as well as other fluoride compounds - sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons.
In response to the growing use of the gas and concerns that its emissions are not well known, the scientists have recommended adding it to the list of greenhouse gases regulated by the protocol or its successor agreement now under negotiation.
"From a climate perspective, there is a need to add NF3 to the suite of greenhouse gases whose production is inventoried and whose emissions are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, thus providing meaningful incentives for its wise use," said Weiss.
Nitrogen trifluoride is one of several gases used during the manufacture of liquid crystal flat-panel displays, thin-film photovoltaic cells and microcircuits.
Many industries have used the gas in recent years as an alternative to perfluorocarbons, which are also potent greenhouse gases, because it was believed that no more than two percent of the NF3 used in these processes escaped into the atmosphere.
To obtain their information, the Scripps team analyzed air samples gathered in California and Tasmania over the past 30 years by the NASA-funded Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment network of ground-based stations.
The network was created in the 1970s in response to international concerns about chemicals depleting the ozone layer. It is supported by NASA as part of its congressional mandate to monitor ozone-depleting trace gases, many of which are also greenhouse gases.
The researchers found concentrations of NF3 rose from about 0.02 parts per trillion in 1978 to 0.454 parts per trillion in 2008.
Higher concentrations of NF3 were found in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, which the researchers said is consistent with its greater use in Northern Hemisphere countries.
"This result reinforces the critical importance of basic research in determining the overall impact of the information technology industry on global climate change, which has already been estimated to be equal to that of the aviation industry," said Larry Smarr, director of the California Institute for Telecommunications at University of California, San Diego, who was not involved in the Scripps study.
Michael Prather is a University of California, Irvine atmospheric chemist who predicted earlier this year that based on the rapidly increasing use of NF3, larger amounts of the gas would be found in the atmosphere. Prather said the new Scripps study provides the confirmation needed to establish reporting requirements for production and use of the gas.
"I'd say case closed. It is now shown to be an important greenhouse gas," said Prather, who was not involved with the Scripps study. "Now we need to get hard numbers on how much is flowing through the system, from production to disposal." |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Study probes clouds' climate role
Sun Oct 26, 2008 7:31 pm
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7682836.stm
Study probes clouds' climate role
An international team of scientists is hoping to shed light on how clouds over the Pacific Ocean are affecting global climate and weather systems.
The clouds, some of which are bigger than the US, reflect sunlight back into space and cool the ocean below.
The team hopes to learn more about the clouds' properties and if pollution from activities such as mining affect the formation of these systems.
The month-long study will involve more than 200 experts from 10 countries.
A team of 20 climate and cloud experts from the UK's National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) are taking part in the expedition, which will be based in Chile.
Hugh Coe, the lead scientist for the British consortium, said the project would help improve the accuracy of climate change models.
"These are some of the largest cloud systems in the world and we know that they must play a very significant role in climate change, yet we know that climate models do not represent them very well," he explained.
"This campaign is a fantastic opportunity to make cutting-edge measurements in a unique environment and merge them with state-of-the-art climate models.
"We hope to finally hit some of the uncertainties in current climate models on the head."
Cloud catching
Professor Coe and his colleagues will gather data via cloud and dust probes fitted to two research aircraft, which will be flown through the low-lying cloud masses, in order to understand how the systems form, how reflective they are, and what factors determine how long the clouds last.
The type of cloud being investigated is known as a marine stratocumulus.
They usually occur near land where deep, cold, upwelling water reaches the surface of the sea.
This water cools the surface air, resulting in condensation and cloud formation.
The clouds do not exceed 2km in altitude, and they are present nearly all year round in the South-East Pacific region.
It is already understood that the clouds play a role in influencing the planet's climate because the vast formations act like massive mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space and limit the amount of solar energy that reaches the Earth's surface.
However, the UK team will also be hoping to establish whether pollution from mining actives along the Chilean and Peruvian coasts affect the clouds' properties.
Tiny particles emitted during the mining processes are carried up into the atmosphere and form droplets when they come into contact with water vapour within the atmosphere.
The NCAS researchers will also gather data to assess whether the particles affect the amount of rain produced and if the particle-filled clouds are more reflective than normal clouds.
The UK project - funded by NCAS, the Natural Environment Research Council (Nerc) and the UK Met Office - is one part of an international three-year project called VOCALS, which is exploring how complex interactions between clouds, oceans and land affect the world's climate.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/7682836.stm
Last edited by Sore Throat on Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:56 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Climate deal may be too late to save coral reefs, scientists
Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:09 pm
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/oct/27/conservation-endangeredhabitats
Climate deal may be too late to save coral reefs, scientists warn
David Adam guardian.co.uk
A new global deal on climate change will come too late to save most of the world's coral reefs, according to a US study that suggests major ecological damage to the oceans is now inevitable.
Emissions of carbon dioxide are making seawater so acidic that reefs including the Great Barrier Reef off Australia could begin to break up within a few decades, research by the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University in California suggests. Even ambitious targets to stabilise greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere, as championed by Britain and Europe to stave off dangerous climate change, still place more than 90% of coral reefs in jeopardy.
Oceanographers Long Cao and Ken Caldeira looked at how carbon dioxide dissolves in the sea as human emissions increase. About a third of carbon pollution is soaked up in this way, where it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid. Experts say human activity over the last two centuries has produced enough acid to lower the average pH of global ocean surface waters by about 0.1 units.
Such acidification spells problems for coral reefs, which rely on calcium minerals called aragonite to build and maintain their exoskeletons.
"We can't say for sure that [the reefs] will disappear but ... the likelihood they will be able to persist is pretty small," said Caldeira.
The new study was prompted by questions by a US congressional committee on how possible carbon stabilisation targets would affect coral loss.
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) before the industrial revolution to more than 380ppm now. Campaigners and politicians in Europe and the UK say a new global climate deal, which is expected to be agreed next year, must aim to limit CO2 to 450ppm, though scientists say that is unlikely and the world is heading for 550ppm or even 650ppm.
The research suggests that stabilising world carbon levels at 450ppm would still dump so much carbon dioxide in the oceans that only 8% of coral reefs would be surrounded by water with enough aragonite to maintain their structure. Some 7% of the ocean below 60 degrees south will see a shortage of aragonite, while parts of the high latitude ocean could see a pH drop of 0.2 units.
At 550ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, no coral reef would have access to enough of the mineral. Even stabilising CO2 at current levels would still leave some 60% of coral bathed in seawater with low aragonite levels.
The increased amounts of carbon dioxide going into the ocean will also affect other marine life, such as shellfish, that need the calcium mineral to build carbonate shells.
Writing in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the scientists say the risk posed by carbon pollution to coral and marine life could justify a carbon stabilisation goal "lower than what might be chosen based on climate considerations alone".
The UK's Royal Society is preparing to issue a warning to policymakers on the issue, together with dozens of other international science academies.
Caldeira said the affected reefs would not disappear straight away, but that the change in water chemistry would leave them vulnerable to attack, bleaching or disease.
He said: "We're losing the Arctic ice, it looks like we're going to lose the coral reefs and we could lose much of the rainforest. I find it disconcerting that these ecosystems that have been around on Earth for a long, long time are no longer able to survive." |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Polar warming 'caused by humans'
Thu Oct 30, 2008 9:25 pm
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7700387.stm
Polar warming 'caused by humans'
By Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News
The rise in temperatures at Earth's poles has for the first time been attributed directly to human activities, according to a study.
The work, by an international team, is published in Nature Geoscience journal.
In 2007, the UN's climate change body presented strong scientific evidence the rise in average global temperature is mostly due to human activities.
This contradicted ideas that it was not a result of natural processes such as an increase in the Sun's intensity.
At the time, there was not sufficient evidence to say this for sure about the Arctic and Antarctic.
Now that gap in research has been plugged, according to scientists who carried out a detailed analysis of temperature variations at both poles.
Their study indicates that humans have indeed contributed to warming in both regions.
Researchers expected this result for the Arctic - because of the recent sharp increase in the melting of sea ice in the summer in the region - but temperature variations in the Antarctic have until now been harder to interpret.
Today's study, according to the researchers, suggests for the first time that there's a discernable human influence on both the Arctic and Antarctica.
Best fit
The research team took the temperature changes over the polar regions of the Earth and compared them with two sets of climate models.
One set assumed that there had been no human influence the other set assumed there had.
The best fit was with models that assumed that human activities including the burning of fossil fuels and depletion of ozone had played a part.
According to one of the researchers involved with the study, Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and attribution at the Met Office, formally showing that the Antarctic was being influenced by human activities was the key development
"In the recent IPCC report for example," he said, "it wasn't possible to make a statement about the Antarctic because such a study had not been done at that point.
"But nevertheless when you do that you see a clear human fingerprint in the observed data. We really can't claim anymore that it's natural variations that are driving these very large changes that we are seeing in our in the climate system."
Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said: "Our study is certainly closing a couple of gaps in the last IPCC report.
"But I still think that a number of people, including some politicians, are reluctant to accept the evidence or to do anything about it until we specifically come down to saying that one particular event was caused by humans like a serious flood somewhere or even a heatwave.
"Until we get down to smaller scale events in both time and space I still think there will be people doubting the evidence."
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/7700387.stm |
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mark sky
Joined: 14 Oct 2000
Posts: 3616
Location: SW coast of Oregon |
| poser
Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:45 am
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i see you are still here after we left several years ago
pretendinding to be alive are you mr bmw ?
the rest of the chemtrail human beings have long left those industry thugs like you in your test tube dust
but i have a couple of rumba moves
you and ventner may have knot seen yet
you are so pathetick living in your high teck tower of genetik man i pu lation
and preciking to youirself about the hell you are engineeeroring
yelp me at yurp earliest xonbt trivvness
mark sky
i liciencend a bike but you 2 chicken to listen ride
now you ride naked dude
you babel trash too long
i be gone three years, you still do it
WHO you work 4 mf ?
just checkin in to see who good and who bad
Santa CLAUSE inc says watch this >
http://www.silentsuperbug.com//index.php |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Long time, no hear
Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:53 pm
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mark,
Glad to hear from you and see that you still carry the passion about an issue that has concerned us both for what has been a decade.... the intentional, clandestine, alternation of our atmosphere.
You're right, many of the originals are gone... though perhaps not forgotten.
As you can see by this thread, I've chosen to document the ever accelerating changes to the global environment.
I know of your concerns for the health of our forests, and it is tragic to see the hundreds of thousands of acres that have been impacted by drought, warming and bark beetles.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20081025-9999-1n25forest.html
Faced with an ever growing body of scientific evidence, it would seem unnecessary to further argue the reality of accelerating global climate change.
Glaciers around the world the world are receding at an alarming pace, threatening the frsh water supplies for millions.
Sea level rise also has profound consequence for those lining on islands and low lying coastal areas.
The reduction of the arctic ice reduces the earth's albedo is allowing the dark oceans to absorb more heat from the sun.
The melting of the arctic permafrost releases methane, a greenhouse gases more powerful than CO2, which further stimulates a positive feedback mechanism.
The buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere has resulted in increased ocean acidity, which along with warming, is having a devastating impact on coral reefs and other marine life around world.
I take no satisfaction in pointing out these realities, but if we, as a human population are concerned with our survival, and are to address these issues in a meaningful way, we cannot continue to ignore what is happening.
You will note that there is a companion thread that is a posting of press stories about proposals for geoengineering projects to address the Earth's climate change.
The fact that I report these articles does NOT mean that I endorse this approach.
Quite the contrary. It is a band aid, last ditch effort at best that is bound to have unforeseen consequences and does no address the root of the problem.
As a society we should be investing in non-polluting, renewable sources of energy...wind, solar, geothermal and be moving away from the combustion of fossil fuels (coal and oil) as quickly as possible.
Unfortunately very powerful industries have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, and that could prove fatal for all of us.
A prime example is the US auto industry. Rather than seeing the writing on the wall and building fuel efficient vehicles, they continued to promote and build gas guzzling beamouths. And where are they today? on the verge of bankruptcy begging for a government bailout (i.e., taxpayer funded).
So much for American capitalism, free enterprise, and ingenuity.
We've been lied to for years mark about very important matters... TWA Flt. 800, what really happened on 9/11, weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and on and on.
That we have also been lied to about what's going on in the skies above us and in the air we must all breathe is just one more insult.
Tomorrow is the election. Let's hope that it is not stolen like the last two through voter intimidation and blatant election fraud by vote manipulation with electronic voting machines.
I pray that we will finally have a government we can believe in, one that is not afraid to confront powerful corporate interests, and most importantly, one that is willing to be completely truthful with the American public about the challenges we face.
I hope for change.
My apologies for rambling....and for not making it up north for some trail riding. It would be a first for me. I've managed to keep the rubber side down for weekend road rides and an occasional track days.
I hope the offer is still open.
How about a snail followup? |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Ozone hole over Antarctica grows again
Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:41 pm
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/nov/04/poles-climatechange
Ozone hole over Antarctica grows again
Stratospheric levels of harmful CFCs will take between 40 and 100 years to dissipate and have only dropped a few per cent since reaching a peak in 2000, scientists warn
John Vidal
guardian.co.uk
The ozone hole over Antarctica grew to the size of North America this year – the fifth largest on record – according to the latest satellite observations.
US government scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say this year's ozone hole reached its maximum level on September 12, extending to 10.5m sq miles and four miles deep. That is bigger than 2007 but smaller than 2006, when the hole covered over 11.4m sq miles.
Scientists blamed colder-than-average temperatures in the stratosphere for the ozone hole's unusually large size this year. "Weather is the most important factor in the fluctuation of the size of the ozone hole from year to year," said Bryan Johnson, a scientist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, which monitors ozone, ozone-depleting chemicals, and greenhouse gases around the globe. "How cold the stratosphere is and what the winds do determine how powerfully the chemicals can perform their dirty work."
The main cause of the ozone hole is human-produced compounds called chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which release ozone-destroying chlorine and bromine into the atmosphere. The Earth's protective ozone layer acts like a giant parasol, blocking the sun's ultraviolet-B rays. Though banned for the past 21 years to reduce their harmful build up, CFCs still take many decades to dissipate from the atmosphere
The 1987 Montreal Protocol and other regulations banning CFCs reversed the build-up of chlorine and bromine, first noticed in the 1980s.
"These chemicals – and signs of their reduction – take several years to rise from the lower atmosphere into the stratosphere and then migrate to the poles," said NOAA's Craig Long, a research meteorologist at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. "The chemicals also typically last 40 to 100 years in the atmosphere. For these reasons, stratospheric CFC levels have dropped only a few per cent below their peak in the early 2000s."
"The decline of these harmful substances to their pre–ozone hole levels in the Antarctic stratosphere will take decades," said NOAA atmospheric chemist Stephen Montzka of the Earth System Research Laboratory. "We don't expect a full recovery of Antarctic ozone until the second half of the century."
Starting in May, as Antarctica moves into a period of 24-hour-a-day darkness, winds create a vortex of cold, stable air centred near the South Pole that isolates CFCs over the continent. When spring sunshine returns in August, the sun's ultraviolet light sets off a series of chemical reactions inside the vortex that consume the ozone. The colder and more isolated the air inside the vortex, the more destructive the chemistry. By late December the southern summer is in full swing, the vortex has crumbled, and the ozone has returned – until the process begins anew the following winter. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| "Yes We Can"
Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:12 am
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"I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face."
President Elect Barack Obama
November 4, 2008
Congratulations!
I hope that we can trust that this is an across the board promise.
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| You can run, but can you hide ?
Thu Nov 06, 2008 10:48 pm
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http://explorations.ucsd.edu/Research_Highlights/2008/Nov/Prather/
Two advances in aerosol tracking have originated at Scripps
If it’s 5 a.m. in Mexico City, then the smog the city is breathing is by and large incinerated municipal waste in particulate form.
But by 3 p.m., wind patterns have changed. Mexico City residents are more likely to be inhaling aerosols ejected with the smoke of fires located south of the city.
So go the conclusions of a recent analysis of air pollution patterrns in the world’s eighth largest city, and one of its smoggiest, by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and six other institutions. Using a mass spectrometer that can characterize the chemical composition of smog particles in near-real time, the researchers hope to play a role in improving public health as well as understand how aerosols affect climate.
“Our instrument brings in a new level of precision by allowing us to identify high levels of specific pollutants that occur in transient peaks,” said Scripps atmospheric chemistry professor Kim Prather, who also holds an appointment at UCSD’s Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry. “A harmful type that is present in high amounts for just a few hours might be overlooked in a sample collected over the course of an entire day and night. But if you live nearby, you still breathe air with concentrated pollutants.”
The findings, which the scientists recently reported in the journal Environmental Science and Technology, add to an emerging discussion of the role and importance of aerosols in influencing climate. In August, that new interest was underscored by the opening of the Aerosol Chemistry and Climate Institute, a collaboration of Scripps and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory that Prather co-directs.
One of the institute’s first missions will be to understand the role aerosols play in making weather cycles even more complex. Aerosols like dust, smoke and even microorganisms are the scaffolding that enable cloud formation. When aerosols from human activities — whether a diesel-powered car ejecting exhaust or a street vendor’s cart emitting soot from its charcoal grill — are added to the mix, the results can be subtle but profound. Prather’s colleagues at Scripps like atmospheric and climate sciences professor V. Ramanathan have documented how human-produced aerosols can alter rainfall patterns and affect agricultural output.
Instruments like the aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS) developed by Prather have dramatically improved scientists’ ability to track aerosols as they drift through the atmosphere. The institute plans to establish an aerosol observatory at the end of Scripps Pier that will characterize the mix of pollutants that come to San Diego from Mexico, Asia, and local sources.
“Changes in aerosols could affect Earth’s temperature on a much shorter time scale than greenhouse gases,” said Prather. “Sorting out the role of aerosols in climate could buy us some time as we grapple with the challenge of controlling levels of the greenhouse gases.”
—Robert Monroe and Susan Brown |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Current warming sharpest climate change in 5,000 years: stud
Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:42 am
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http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Current_warming_sharpest_climate_ch_11072008.html
Current warming sharpest climate change in 5,000 years: study
Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago, according to studies published Thursday.
Researchers from Cornell University studied the increased introduction of fresh water from glacial melt, oceanic circulation, and the change in geographic range migration of oceanic plant and animal species.
The team, led by oceanographer Charles Greene, described "major ecosystem reorganization" -- or "regime shift" -- in the North Atlantic, a consequence of global warming on the largest scale in five millennia.
"The rate of warming we are seeing (now) is unprecedented in human history," said Greene, whose research appears in the November 2008 issue of the journal Ecology.
In order to forecast the path of climate change, Greene and colleagues have been reconstructing major episodes of warming and cooling in the Arctic over the past 65 million years.
They have found in the paleoclimate record periods of rapid cooling, with average temperatures plunging by 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees F) within just decades or even years.
But the rise in temperatures over the past five decades is unmatched since the onset of human civilization, Greene said.
The paleoclimate data gives the scientists more insight into the impact of melting Arctic ice sheets and glaciers on the North Atlantic oceanic system.
They have found "extensive" shifts in the geographic range of numerous plant and animal species.
For instance, the massive Arctic fresh-water melt in the past 10 years has helped one species of microscopic algae move from the Pacific ocean to the North Atlantic.
The last time that algae appeared in the North Atlantic was 800,000 years ago, the Cornell research found.
The increase of fresh water can have a huge impact on the ecosystems of the Atlantic continental shelf, for instance extending the growing seasons of phytoplankton and microscopic drifting animals fundamental to the food chain.
"Such climate-driven changes can alter the structure of shelf ecosystems from the bottom of the food chain upwards," according to Greene.
In another example, the collapse in the last century of cod populations in the north Atlantic is partially due to overfishing, but also partly due to Arctic glacial melt adding more fresh and colder water to the ocean, which stifles cod reproduction.
At the same time, the research noted, less cod and colder water benefited shrimp and snow crab populations.
"As climate changes, there are going to be winners and losers, both in terms of biological species and different groups of people," said Greene.
The Cornell studies also focused on the way the introduction of more freshwater in the north Atlantic can disrupt circulation patterns further south.
"When Arctic climate changes, waters in the Arctic can go from storing large quantities of fresh water to exporting that fresh water to the North Atlantic in large pulses, referred to as great salinity anomalies," Greene explains.
By modelling the current changes, the Cornell researchers posited that the highly saline water of the deep North Atlantic will likely not be heavily affected by the "pulses" of fresh water during the 21st century.
"Continued exposure to such freshwater forcing, however, could disrupt global ocean circulation during the next century and lead to very abrupt changes in climate, similar to those that occurred at the onset of the last ice age," the studies said.
"If the Earth's deep ocean circulation were to be shut down, many of the atmospheric, glacial and oceanic processes that have been stable in recent times would change, and the change would likely be abrupt," said Greene. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Revised theory suggests carbon dioxide levels already in dan
Sat Nov 15, 2008 6:15 pm
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http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-11/yu-rts110708.php
Revised theory suggests carbon dioxide levels already in danger zone
New Haven, Conn. — If climate disasters are to be averted, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) must be reduced below the levels that already exist today, according to a study published in Open Atmospheric Science Journal by a group of 10 scientists from the United States, the United Kingdom and France.
The authors, who include two Yale scientists, assert that to maintain a planet similar to that on which civilization developed, an optimum CO2 level would be less than 350 ppm — a dramatic change from most previous studies, which suggested a danger level for CO2 is likely to be 450 ppm or higher. Atmospheric CO2 is currently 385 parts per million (ppm) and is increasing by about 2 ppm each year from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) and from the burning of forests.
"This work and other recent publications suggest that we have reached CO2 levels that compromise the stability of the polar ice sheets," said author Mark Pagani, Yale professor of geology and geophysics. "How fast ice sheets and sea level will respond are still poorly understood, but given the potential size of the disaster, I think it's best not to learn this lesson firsthand."
The statement is based on improved data on the Earth's climate history and ongoing observations of change, especially in the polar regions. The authors use evidence of how the Earth responded to past changes of CO2 along with more recent patterns of climate changes to show that atmospheric CO2 has already entered a danger zone.
According to the study, coal is the largest source of atmospheric CO2 and the one that would be most practical to eliminate. Oil resources already may be about half depleted, depending upon the magnitude of undiscovered reserves, and it is still not practical to capture CO2 emerging from vehicle tailpipes, the way it can be with coal-burning facilities, note the scientists. Coal, on the other hand, has larger reserves, and the authors conclude that "the only realistic way to sharply curtail CO2 emissions is phase out coal use except where CO2 is captured and sequestered."
In their model, with coal emissions phased out between 2010 and 2030, atmospheric CO2 would peak at 400-425 ppm and then slowly decline. The authors maintain that the peak CO2 level reached would depend on the accuracy of oil and gas reserve estimates and whether the most difficult to extract oil and gas is left in the ground.
The authors suggest that reforestation of degraded land and improved agricultural practices that retain soil carbon could lower atmospheric CO2 by as much as 50 ppm. They also dismiss the notion of "geo-engineering" solutions, noting that the price of artificially removing 50 ppm of CO2 from the air would be about $20 trillion.
While they note the task of moving toward an era beyond fossil fuels is Herculean, the authors conclude that it is feasible when compared with the efforts that went into World War II and that "the greatest danger is continued ignorance and denial, which could make tragic consequences unavoidable."
"There is a bright side to this conclusion" said lead author James Hansen of Columbia University, "Following a path that leads to a lower CO2 amount, we can alleviate a number of problems that had begun to seem inevitable, such as increased storm intensities, expanded desertification, loss of coral reefs, and loss of mountain glaciers that supply fresh water to hundreds of millions of people."
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In addition to Hansen and Pagani, authors of the paper are Robert Berner from Yale University; Makiko Sato and Pushker Kharecha from the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute; David Beerling from the University of Sheffield, UK; Valerie Masson-Delmotte from CEA-CNRS-Universite de Versaille, France Maureen Raymo from Boston University; Dana Royer from Wesleyan University and James C. Zachos from the University of California at Santa Cruz.
Citation: Open Atmospheric Science Journal, Volume 2, 217-231 (2008)
Mark Pagani http://earth.geology.yale.edu/~mp364/
geology and geophysics http://www.geology.yale.edu/
Robert Berner http://earth.geology.yale.edu/people/moreinfo.cgi?netid=berner
Open Atmospheric Science Journal http://www.bentham.org/open/toascj/openaccess2.htm |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Mile-thick cloud of pollution is choking the planet
Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:05 pm
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http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/world/Milethick-cloud-of-pollution-is.4697533.jp
Mile-thick cloud of pollution is choking the planet
By rhiannon edward
A MASSIVE mile-thick brown pollution haze has settled over vast areas of the planet, changing weather patterns and threatening health and crops, according to the UN.
Vast areas of Asia, the Middle East, southern Africa and the Amazon Basin, are affected by the smog-like plumes, caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels and firewood, are known as "atmospheric brown clouds".
When mixed with emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases blamed for warming the earth's atmosphere like a greenhouse, they are the newest threat to the global environment, according to a report commissioned by the UN Environment Programme.
"All of this points to an even greater and urgent need to look at emissions across the planet," said Achim Steiner, head of the UNEP.
Brown clouds are caused by an unhealthy mix of particles, ozone and other chemicals that come from cars, coal-fired power plants, burning fields and wood-burning stoves. First identified by the report's lead researcher in 1990, the clouds were depicted in the report as being more widespread and causing more environmental damage than previously known.
Perhaps most widely recognised as the haze this past summer over Beijing's Olympics, the clouds have been found to be more than a mile thick around glaciers in the Himalaya and Hindu Kush mountain ranges.
They hide the sun and absorb radiation, leading to new worries not only about global climate change but also about extreme weather conditions. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Scientists Say Global Warming Threatens Future Andean Glacie
Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:34 am
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http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-11-19-voa19.cfm
Scientists Say Global Warming Threatens Future Andean Glacier Runoff
By Brian Wagner
Ecuador
Scientists say global warming is causing glaciers in the Andes Mountains to shrink at a faster pace than ever. In Ecuador, the pace of glacier melt threatens hydroelectric power plants and water systems that rely on water from the glaciers. With the help of the World Bank, local researchers are launching new efforts to track the decline and urge residents to preserve crucial water supplies. VOA's Brian Wagner reports from Ecuador's capital, Quito.
Once a month, water utility workers make the difficult journey up the Antizana volcano. Technicians must visit more than a dozen monitoring stations, to gather data about a massive Andean glacier at the peak and the water that runs off of it.
Diego Paredes, who is a technician for the Ecuadorean utility, EMAAP explained, "It takes measurements every five minutes. We download that data to our computers and use it to measure the water flow."
Technicians want to know how much precipitation is added to the glacier, and how much rain water and melted ice flow down into the the Ecuadorean capital's water supply. Maintaining a balance is crucial to Quito's future.
"The glacier is a huge reservoir of water that supplies us every year. We have a lot of monitoring activity to make sure it never runs out," Paredes said.
Hydroelectric power plants generate energy from glacier-fed rivers and the water flows into the city's water system. Quito's growing population has put strains on the water utility. But a bigger concern is whether global warming could eventually do away with Antizana and other Andean glaciers.
"When glaciers melt, at first there is a surge in water supply from melting ice," said Bernard Francou, a glacier expert with France's Institute for Development Research. "So you have more water, but then the glacier grows smaller and you have the opposite effect: less water."
Members of Francou's team are working with local experts to study the impact of global warming on glaciers like Antizana and nearby Cotopaxi. Along with water measurements, teams are using satellite photos of the glaciers. The data show warmer temperatures are taking their toll.
Mr. Francou reported,"One glacier near Quito has shrunk 30-40 percent in the past 30 years, and other studies show the same has happened with Cotopaxi. Comparing photographs from 1956 and now, we see the glacier is retreating."
Studies show the same is true for glaciers in Bolivia and Peru. Some scientists warn the glaciers could disappear completely in 30 years.
In Ecuador, experts are concerned that warmer temperatures mean added dangers to high-altitude ecosystems. Areas that once were too cold, are now home to farming and livestock. The new agricultural activities may threaten delicate environments in the Andes, says Jorge Nunez, of Ecuador's Environment Ministry.
"Our priority is to conserve water resources, because without water there is no food," he said. "We need to protect the highlands ecosystems to ensure our water supply, on the glacier and in the city."
The World Bank is funding experts like Nunez to track the immediate impacts of global warming and glacier melt across the Andes. One goal is to educate both policy makers and the general public on the seriousness of the problem.
Mr. Nunez warns, "Ensuring our water supply is one of biggest problems that will result from climate change, affecting millions of people. It is really important to talk about education to prevent [water] abuse."
Nunez says conserving water is one thing people everywhere should do now to sustain the planet's limited resources. |
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Sore Throat
Joined: 01 Sep 2000
Posts: 1802
Location: x |
| Marine life faces 'acid threat'
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:25 pm
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7745714.stm
Marine life faces 'acid threat'
By Julian Siddle
Science Reporter, BBC News
Man-made pollution is raising ocean acidity at least 10 times faster than previously thought, a study says.
Researchers say carbon dioxide levels are having a marked effect on the health of shellfish such as mussels.
They sampled coastal waters off the north-west Pacific coast of the US every half-hour for eight years.
The results, published in the journal PNAS, suggest that earlier climate change models may have underestimated the rate of ocean acidification.
Ocean pH
Professor Timothy Wootton from the department of ecology and evolution, University of Chicago, in Illinois, says such dramatic results were unexpected as it was thought that the huge ocean systems had the ability to absorb large quantities of CO2.
"It's been thought pH in the open oceans is well buffered, so it's surprising to see these fluctuations," he said.
The findings showed that CO2 had lowered the water pH over time, demonstrating a year-on-year increase in acidity.
The research involved taking daily measurements of water pH levels, salinity and temperature, off the coast of Tatoosh island, a small outcrop lying in the Pacific Ocean, just off the north-western tip of Washington state, US.
As well as measuring physical factors, the health of marine life present in the coastal ecosystem was also tracked.
Professor Wootton says biological factors were missing from previous models of ocean climate systems - and that life in the ocean, or in this case on the ocean edge, can also affect seawater pH.
"Over a short time, biology is affecting pH, through photosynthesis and respiration, but current models don't include biological activity as part of the story," he explained.
Calcium carbonate
Every summer, Professor Wootton returned to the same sites on Tatoosh island's windswept coasts, to look at the abundance and distribution of life at the water's edge. He was especially interested in barnacles, algae and the dominant species, the Californian mussel.
The mussel has a calcium carbonate -based shell, which can be weakened or even dissolved by exposure to acid. Professor Wootton says the increase in acidity may be responsible for the decline in mussels noted in the study.
"Patterns show the chances of mussels being replaced are higher than for species without calcified shells," he said.
Other species quickly move into the space previously occupied by the mussels - though one of these species, the barnacle, also has calcified shells.
To explain this apparent anomaly, Professor Wootton says the decline of the dominant species allows a window where another species may thrive - though he expects this to be temporary as the interloper too will eventually be affected by the increasing acidity.
"In the short term, the long term decline is offset by the release from competition," he explained.
Chemical oceanography
The researchers say they were surprised that the plants and animals in their study are so sensitive to CO2 changes. These organisms live in the harsh inter-tidal zones, they may be submerged under water, exposed to the sun, then lashed by waves and storms.
Professor Wootton says the most troubling finding is the speed of acidification, with the pH level dropping at a much greater rate than was previously thought.
"It's going down 10 to 20 times faster than the previous models predicted," he says.
The research team are now working together with chemical oceanographers to see how their coastal observations can be matched with large scale observations, to try to explain why the decline in pH levels seems to be happening so quickly.
"We actually know surprisingly little about how ocean acidity is changing over time, we need a broader network of measurements," said Professor Wootton.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/7745714.stm
Published: 2008/11/25 00:51:28 GMT |
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