posted 07-12-2001 03:06 PM            

Today's forecast (Thurs 12 July 2001).

Absolutely zero chance of any contrails near Yuma, AZ. Nearly zero percent
chance for Las Vegas and Cedar City, UT (sw corner). Note on the water
vapor image the orange colors in this region. This area is so dry aloft
no contrails will form. San Diego is also not likely to see any lasting
more than a few seconds behind aircraft.

Other regions with small chances for contrails: central TX (Abilene
toward Amarillo - Dallas may have some brief ones but not long-lasting);
approximate line from Duluth, MN to Green Bay, WI to Flint, MI (whereas
Detroit is on the fringe of high amounts of moisture). Detroit will
be getting drier thru the day so I would expect contrails to be much
less likely toward noon and PM than earlier in the day. Lastly, that
ribbon of dry air continues into northern PA then arches northeastward
toward Albany and Boston. I would not expect long-lived contrails in
either Albany or Boston but some short ones could occur. It also appears
there is dry air near Charlotte, NC right now so I expect few or no
contrails there now but moisture will increase there so by mid-to-late
day, I would expect some 20-40 minute contrails.

Prime candidates for long-lived contrails: most of NM and eastern 2/3rds
of AZ; south of Minneapolis all the way down to Des Moines, IA then
eastward to Gary, IN, then southeastward across central and southern
OH and into WV.

4 specific locations:
Turner Falls, MA: zero contrails or under 5 seconds lifespan.
(this location is in the western portion of MA not near Boston as I
previously thought.)
Albany, NY: few or no contrails (under 2 mins).
Charlotte, NC: few if any early in the day, increasing in length and
lifespan by sunset (~20-40 mins late PM)
Denver, CO: few contrails early with longer lifespans (~15 mins)
toward sunset..

links and info
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I will also post the reports I receive for these areas so everyone can compare the forecast with the report...My source is an atmospheric scientist who has agreed to provide me with this forecast each day so I can compare with reports from around the country and I also hope to glean more knowledge in how to look for the right conditions...I would also encourage anyone who has expertise in this same area to add their opinion of this forecast...blessings ms

Links for atmospheric info used in reports..blessings T

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g08.2001191.1415_wv.jpg

weather modification info threw this one in)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/research/enhance.html

The images I will use are
basically the following from my web site: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_vis.jpg http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_wv.jpg
You may need to hit the Reload/Refresh button on your browser to get the
latest version on a daily or hourly basis.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/g08.2001191.1415_wv.jpg

The company
is called "Yankee Environmental Systems Inc." and I found their web page
with full sky images in realtime. There are two sites which could
be quite useful: one is their headquarters somewhere near Boston and
the other is at the university in Albany, NY. The page with links to
these two images is found at: http://www.yesinc.com/products/demos/img.html
and the links I viewed are the first and third links in the table column
on the right (first table with live web demos). Both images are high
quality and show nearly all of the sky using a bubble-style mirror to
act as a "fish-eye" lens.

posted 07-12-2001 04:06 PM            

Please help her out on this project by posting your contrail report for your area. (Be sure to include your area, if it isn't listed in your profile!).

One question msswv, is the initial idea here to capture only contrails so as to calibrate the correctness of the reports, or is it to collect all trails (contrails and Chemtrails) to see if any anomolies stand out (based on the fact that the reports are for contrails)?

[Edited 1 times, lastly by Thermit on 07-12-2001]

posted 07-12-2001 05:49 PM            

By combining Clifford Carnicom's equations for the relative evaporation rates of water, plus the table of the maximum relative humdities over ice, I've come up with the following graph. If it's correct (and I can't say if it is) it would predict long-lasting contrails where the relative humidity is about 70%. According to the ADDS Flight Path Tool http://adds.awc-kc.noaa.gov/projects/adds/flight_path/ today that would include the Four Corners area at 34,000 feet.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by 3T3L1 on 07-12-2001]

posted 07-12-2001 06:48 PM            

>> I can often tell where contrails
are likely to occur and last for hours versus areas which are not likely to
support long-lived contrails. It's a very simple matter of how moist the
atmosphere is up at jet altitudes. For simplicity, let's just use above
30,000 feet since that's where most air traffic flies for long distance
routes. By looking at the "water vapor" satellite image I provide, I can
tell if the high levels of the atmosphere (between roughly 30,000 and
60,000 feet) are moist enough for the real world contrails to remain visible
as a cloud for a long time. Areas on this chart which are dark gray toward
black or even orange would indicate extremely dry conditions at jet altitude
and therefore contrails would quickly evaporate behind a jet. Areas that are
very light gray into the blue/green colors are very, very moist at high
levels and therefore would support contrails lasting for hours.

This is best to do with data from the morning hours since late PM thunderstorms
are typically not present early in the day. Today was a fantastic example
in Denver. The satellite image I'm discussing had dark gray toward black
shades. The sky was a crisp and beautiful blue and not a single contrail
showed up in the sky. The same color appeared on the satellite image not
far from New York city. I would be pretty confident that NYC had no contrails
in the AM hours. Likewise for northeastern Louisianna.

posted 07-12-2001 07:06 PM            

This a.m. between daylight and 0600 hrs. no contrails. 0615 to 0900 hours short contrails in every quadrant of the sky and from every direction, no pattern and not following established flight paths.
0930 hours. Sky completely covered in chem/contrails fanning out. One trail up the center of the formations, traveling N to S for a distance of approx 20-25 miles.

0930-1230 hrs sky remained covered with more trails filling in any blank or thinning spot.

1300 hours. Covering begins to thin, what remains are very large wide trails, very long trails, with a few "popcorn" clouds.
1430 hrs sky clear of trails or remnants, however ever present blue/grey ground haze is thicker with visibility greatly reduced.

posted 07-13-2001 10:27 AM            

>>Forecast for Friday 13 July 2001

Absolutely zero chance of any contrails to form over most of the state
of KY. Viewing the water vapor image, there are striking orange colors
meaning EXTREMELY dry conditions in places like Evansville, IN to
Bowling Green, KY and also near Dayton, OH. This extremely dry air is
moving south and eastward around the bottom of a trough of low pressure
during the day today. Locations in eastern KY, southeast OH, all of WV,
and most of state of VA (excecpt far se corner like Norfolk) will have
very, very small chances for contrails during most daylight hours today.
In fact, many of these locations will have some unusually clear skies
with only a few scattered cumulus clouds. An incredible day for mid-summer
in this region. Even the haze in the mountains of KY and TN will be
unusually scarce because of the dry air at all levels of the atmosphere.
If anyone reading this message can drive on "Skyline Drive" in Virginia,
today would be the day to do so.

The southern half of TX is also rather dry so contrails lasting no longer
than 10 secs. The same is also true for San Diego. Yesterday, Yuma, AZ
had no chance for contrails but today some higher moisture amounts have
moved into this region and the same is not true.

posted 07-13-2001 03:33 PM            

7/12/01 Columbus, OH - "crimped" haarpooned clouds this am. spreading into massive cover by noon. Planes working over unnatural and natural cirrus layer. Radar showing huge storm coming our way but forecast makes no mention of stormy weather. Many health complaints from people in downtown and surrounding area. <<

1:07 pm As of right now we have a CT overhead, and very wispy
cirrus mare's tail clouds in our sky. I'll keep
checking for later today.
I'm some 600 miles north of San Diego, 90 miles north
of Sacramento, in the valley.<<

1:31 pm Richmond va...
Better add a BIG probability for trails in Richmond, VA -- our skies are smeared -- and I have pictures beginning around 11:30 AM through about 1:15 PM -- The trails on the immediate horizon were laid at about 6:30 AM this morning and are -- shock -- still there -- so seven (7) hours seems pretty long-lasting to me.

Phoenix Arizona: 4:46 pm
Massive morning attack.

Called all the local mid-day TV News weather-bots. Got a couple to run outside and look at the sun ring. Both were surprised and said they would check it out.

7/12 east coast of maryland...Buried under thick white trails turning into heavy cloud cover.Cool and dry today.

Houston 7/12: no significant contrails observed.

MONTGOMERY NY/clear skies all day
Thursday July 12, 2001
5:00 pm

Seattle Washington 7/12/01 4:30 PCT
No visible contrails. Normal air traffic.

Northern Calif/Lake Co.
This a.m. between daylight and 0600 hrs. no contrails. 0615 to 0900 hours short contrails in every quadrant of the sky and from every direction, no pattern and not following established flight paths.
0930 hours. Sky completely covered in chem/contrails fanning out. One trail up the center of the formations, traveling N to S for a distance of approx 20-25 miles.

0930-1230 hrs sky remained covered with more trails filling in any blank or thinning spot.

1300 hours. Covering begins to thin, what remains are very large wide trails, very long trails, with a few "popcorn" clouds.
1430 hrs sky clear of trails or remnants, however ever present blue/grey ground haze is thicker with visibility greatly reduced.
This area of the state is "hit" every day and some nights.

Milwaukee.
yesterday 7-11 Heavy spray activity in early afternoon over
Today, no visible trails.

SE Pa..
Early this morning, in our northern skies, I saw one, huge dripping chemtrail. Never saw this type before, I don't think.

It was already spreading out, in almost the 'tassled' fashion, but the spread was totally to the south. It was as though someone was icing a cake, had spread a line of the icing across the top, and spread it all in the same direction. There was a straight demarcation line, forcryingoutloud, on the northern side of this thing.

Emporia/Lawrenceville VA BLITZED 7/12

Full grid over both towns by 10 am. Left Emporia at 9:30 a.m. Horizon to horizon parrallel CTs. One section had 14 side by side. Saw trails being made but saw no planes! Norhtern sky had starburst pattern with the spokes coming southward. At 10 a.m. Lawrenceville was covered.

Skies in Southeastern Wi. clear blue ( very strange,
blue for wks.)for july 12, 2001..

posted 07-13-2001 03:57 PM            

This layer appears to be low in elevation and is easily visible as a moving mass.

In the same spot in the southern horizon as yesterday, 45 degrees above same, small dots begin to appear in this haze, they
quickly begin to grow in size, float off to the North leaving a whitish/grey trail that fans out and joins the mass around it.

posted 07-13-2001 04:39 PM            

02:32 PCT No visible contrails. Normal air traffic.

posted 07-13-2001 05:43 PM            

Absolutely beautiful all day. Not a contrail in sight. Mid 80's, no humidity..REAL sky and clouds!

posted 07-13-2001 06:53 PM            

Skies have cleared and it is beautiful. hope it stays that way.