posted 01-11-2002 08:27 AM            

But if you took that into account, and also noticed an increase in the length and persistence of contrails (and also made sure that they were at the same altitude), then you could probably deduce that either the atmospheric conditions at flight altitudes had changed (which by itself would be worrisome), or....

There really is something to chemtrails.

I don't know whether NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has such a photographic database, but that might be a good place to start.

Regards,

posted 01-11-2002 08:53 AM            

air traffic has increased by about 25 percent in just the last ten years or so, so you'd expect to see more contrails.

I don't know how much air traffic increased between 1992 and 1998 (the year people started becoming chemtrail-aware), but let's say it was 12%. That's a lot if you work in an airline-related industry, but not a huge amount if you're just looking at the sky. If the increase were 100% in a couple of years, that might explain why people began noticing the trail phenomenon, but a 25% increase over 10 years doesn't seem like enough.

I don't know whether NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has such a photographic database, but that might be a good place to start.

That sounds like a good idea. Presumably Dr. Patrick Minnis has looked at this. If I get some time, a googlesearch would be a good starting point.

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Several months ago I mentioned that my husband and I had noticed a correlation between the occurrence of chemtrails and the subsequent appearance of dead birds on our walks with the dogs. (Huskies are outstanding dead-bird detectors. I will not elaborate.) This year we haven't seen the correlation. We haven't seen as many dead birds, either, but I thought I'd let you know the results of that informal study.

posted 01-11-2002 10:52 AM            

I don't think there're any nationwide studies -- formal or informal -- that show there were more or less contrails from about 9/18 (by which date most airports were operating again) through today, compared to 9/10 and previous.

I know that, in the Phoenix area, there were almost no contrails (outside of a few military ones) for the first three days or so after the attacks. Within a week after that, contrail formation seemed to be pretty much what it was before.

I do know there were some flights discontinued, but not that many in the Phoenix area. Passenger miles, of course, were (and still are) down, but a half-full 737, even though it's losing money, will still produce contrails, given the proper atmospheric conditions at the flight altitude.

There may be a correlation, and there may not. I don't think there's any objective evidence either way; if you are familiar with any, I would certainly be glad too look at such.

posted 01-11-2002 12:37 PM            

I just spent a bunch of time trying to find photographs of contrail occurrence detected over whole continents over time. It seems that the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer)is a good detection tool, but the AVHRR analyses of contrails available on the web seem to be confined to 1995-1996. For instance, this one shows average contrail coverage over Europe at noon in 1996, but I can't find a corresponding figure for, say the year 2000.

posted 01-11-2002 02:14 PM            

I just got a note last week -- out of the blue (no pun intended) -- from Pat Minnis telling me about some evaluation software his group's developed that may correlate with other software (FE, in this case).

What with my other activities, I haven't had much time to check it out, but I will drop him an e-mail over the weekend and see if he can point me in the right direction.

I'll let you know if I come up with anything.

Regards,

posted 01-11-2002 02:22 PM            

Some days are overcast so you can't see anything, when I look, I've seen some days with not a cloud, contrail or chemtrail in the sky, some days they're criss-crossed chemtrails, and some are east-west 'dripping' clouds, and some that don't 'drip'. I haven't seen any noticeable decrease in spraying since 9/11/01.

posted 01-12-2002 02:00 PM            

the event i speak of is if the chem jet was to have a "malfunction" of sorts and crash into the ground releasing its payload in a huge cloud, a huge toxic cloud.

of course it would be covered up so the point is a moot one.

posted 01-12-2002 02:23 PM            

(Of course, if the spray is simply something added to the fuel, or if the spray ports are located right next to the fuel dumping ports, you would have a problem. But there is a chance the sprayers haven't expected anybody would check on them that closely.)