posted 09-03-2002 01:13 PM            

Note: This paper is subject to significant revision in the immediate future; please do not distribute beyond the reference to this web page. It is presented at a preliminary stage so that research by other citizens may progress in parallel to this release. CEC 09/03/02

Research over an extended period of time indicates that there is likely a strong relationship between the appearance of the aerosol operations in a given locale and time and the interaction of at least three primary variables: sunspot activity, relative humidity, and the change in relative humidity. The inclusion of the solar activity within this current examination may be a significant avenue of research that establishes a series of ties with earlier discussions related to ionospheric, electromagnetic and defense projects, applications of HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program) and plasma physics that also appear on this site. Current studies on planetary physics and celestial considerations may demonstrate further relationships to the aerosol operations in the future.

This current work expands upon earlier presentations that have been made in the spring of 2001 related primarily to the relative humidity issue. These papers are available at The Aerosol Reports : United States; A Model Under Development and The Aerosol Report. This earlier work focused upon the consideration of relative humidity values across the nation in conjunction with observed aerosol operations. The result of that earlier work indicated a close link between increased relative humidity levels that were scaled according to local conditions and the likelihood of concurrent aerosol operations. Other researchers and considerable anectodal information have also added to that body of correlations that now exist.

Since that time, increased attention has been given to the drought crisis that has emerged over the last three to four years, and further links from a scientific standpoint have been made to the aerosol operations with these events. Readers may wish to refer to the following paper Drought Inducement as well as an audio interview with Mr. Jeff Rense (June 2, 2002) on this same topic. Readers may also wish to become familiar with the the refuting arguments that I have made against any so-called "global warming mitigation" aerosol theories (e.g., Edward Teller) that have been proffered by certain well-publicized journalists and broadcasters. My concerns on the drought issue and the potential crisis that is likely to affect food production and water availability now and in the future has only been amplified since those presentations were made. It appears to me that it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the drought to subside as long as the aerosol operations continue unchecked without public outcry and action.

This paper will again be divided into two sections. The latter half will outline the more technical aspects of the study, whereas the general findings are presented above.

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Further Discussion:

An empirical model has now been developed of the following form:

I = c * [(log(SS+1) / 2.5)4 * (log(RH+1) / 2)2 * ((deltaRH + deltaRHmax) / (2 * deltaRHmax))] + 10

where

SS = daily sunspot number

RH = relative humidity in per cent at ground location for the site of interest

(Note : relative humidity at commercial flight level does not appear to be a requirement at this point and has the disadvantage of elapsed time prior to availability of radisonde observations.)

deltaRH = the change in relative humidity in per cent from the previous day for the site of interest

deltaRHmax = the absolute value of the maximum change in relative humidity in per cent from the
previous day for the site of interest over the time interval that the model is to be used.

c = a constant, defined as 80 /I'max

where I'max = the maximum value of the product : (log(SS+1) / 2.5)4 * (log(RH+1) / 2)2 * ((deltaRH + deltaRHmax) / (2 * deltaRHmax))

reached during the time interval that the model is to be reached.

I represents an index value, scaled between 0 and 100 (for usual circumstances), that indicates the suitability of conditions for (and increased likelihood for) the aerosol operations to be conducted. Lower values indicate less favorable circumstances for the aerosol operations to occur, and higher values more favorable cirumstances for the aerosol operations to occur.

The following is the specific model being used for the Santa Fe NM region at this time:

I = 200 * [(log(SS+1) / 2.5)4 * (log(RH+1) / 2)2 * ((deltaRH + 35) / 70)] + 10

This specific model as well as the original form will be modified or revised freely as circumstances require, and it is to be considered as preliminary. In particular, the deltaRHmax term is likely to increase as a longer time interval is used for the model. The apparent influence of cloud cover is also a likely inclusion in the near future.

To illustrate the use of this model, a table of data will be presented for the Santa Fe area, along with the results of the model as compared to observation reports for the same time period.

Date
Time
SS
RH
dRH
I'
I
Comments/Observations

072702
1000
323
58
11
0.52
115
Blitz. Extraordinary activity reported in TX, NM, CO.. Normal range of model exceeded.

082102
2200
209
26
na
na
na
na. Start of modeling; eliminate from scoring of model.

082202
0900
238
16
-10
0.12
33
Light ops

082302
0900
205
38
22
0.37
84
Heavy ops

082402
0800
207
43
5
0.29
67
Heavy ops

082502
0830
199
23
-20
0.07
24
No ops directly observed; unusual transformations of aerosol "clouds" in PM; observations insufficient and indeterminate; eliminate from scoring of model.

082602
0900
136
16
-7
0.08
26
None, Jemez Mtn. fire in PM

082702
0900
105
14
-2
0.07
24
None

082702
2400
133
46
32
0.35
80
Moist air arrival in PM; heavy ops in PM

082802
0900
133
63
17
0.32
73
Heavy clouds; ops visible within clear patches w/in clouds

082902
0900
87
93
30


Much moisture in sky; light to med ops; consider cloud cover interactions

083002
0900
146
72
-21


Light ops to none

083102
0900
150
43
-29


None in SF region w/ clear skies; Local ops on east horizon approx 200 miles easterly; aerosol cloud bank on east horizon

090102
0900
153
51
8


Light to Med ops east of SF in AM; none in PM. Increasing cumulus clouds. Humidity decreases in PM.

090202
0900
187
52
1


Cloudy skies; No ops visible within clear patches. Consider failure of model w.r.t. cloud cover?

090302
0900
227
68
16


Cloudy skies. No opes visible within clear patches. Consider failure of model w.r.t. cloud cover?

Readers may see that the model over the interval considered is showing a fair level of accuracy in predicting when conditions for aerosol operations are more favorable for this region. It is to be understood that the model is NOT expected to predict the actual occurrence of operations; only the existence of favorable conditions for the operations. A failure of the model occurs when a low index value is computed but observations of heavy aerosol operations occur overhead. Failure can not be positively established when a high index is computed and heavy aerosol operations DO NOT occur, as suitable CONDITIONS only are considered within the model. Specific additional environmental and physical factors that produce failure are to be identified at that time; other citizens may wish to contribute to that goal. Additional evaluations over time will demonstrate the success or failure of this model.

It is of interest to discuss how the consideration of solar activity has come to be incorporated into this model in addition to the previous consideration of relative humidity alone. This brings to attention the events of and surrounding July 27 of this year.