posted 08-22-2003 08:40 PM            

2003 Ozone Hole May
Be Record Size
By Michael Perry
8-22-03

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The ozone hole over the Antarctic is growing at a rate that suggests it could be headed for a record size this year, Australian scientists said on Friday.

A study by Australian Antarctic bases attributed the development to colder temperatures in the stratosphere where the ozone hole forms.

"The growth at the moment is similar to 2000 when the hole was a record size," Australian Antarctic Division scientist Andrew Klekociuk told Reuters on Friday.

Ozone is a protective layer in the atmosphere that shields the Earth from the sun's rays, in particular ultraviolet-B radiation that can cause skin cancer, cataracts and can harm marine life. In 2000, NASA said the ozone hole expanded to a record 10.9 million square miles, three times the size of Australia or the United States, excluding Alaska.

"This is in contrast to the situation in 2002 when unusually warm conditions produced the smallest ozone hole since 1988," Klekociuk said.

The ozone hole in 2003 presently covers all of the Antarctic.

Klekociuk said scientists at Australia's Davis Antarctic base saw the first signs of cooling of the lower stratosphere, 15 to 25 km (nine to 15 miles) up, about six weeks earlier than usual.

In a visual sign the ozone hole would grow rapidly this year, scientists at Australia's Mawson base have reported the early appearance of stratospheric clouds, which create a spectacular lightshow by defracting sunlight around sunset.

Chemical reactions in these clouds convert normally inert man-made chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) into ozone destroyers. CFCs are commonly used as propellants in spray cans.

The 1997 Kyoto treaty set in place a global process to reduce greenhouse gases which deplete the ozone layer, but the world's biggest polluter the United States has yet to sign.

Clouds do not usually form in the stratosphere due to its extreme dryness, but during some winters temperatures become low enough to allow their formation.

"In 2000 we didn't see the stratospheric clouds until the beginning of July. This year we saw them about the middle of May which is the earliest we have seen them," Klekociuk said.

The full extent of the 2003 ozone hole will not be known until the end of September, as August and September are the coldest months for the South Pole. Temperatures begin to warm by early October and the ozone layer will then start to recover.

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Question: What do you think adds the most moisture to the stratosphere?
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Could I borrow a pair of sun glasses please?

posted 08-24-2003 08:17 PM            

I happen to think that the CONTRAILS (please note my very specific and intentional choice of words) are adding moisture to the stratosphere, and therefore, directly contributing to ozone depletion.

I also happen to think that the artifical cloud cover created by jet CONTRAILS are trapping heat that would otherwise radiate back to space, and therefore, are directly contributing to global warming as well.

posted 08-24-2003 09:57 PM            

I agree.

And anyone who's been seriously following the last 7-10 years' research literature on the impact of persistent CONTRAILS on the upper troposphere, lower stratosphere, the stratospheric ozone layer and regional diurnal surface temperature patterns would agree that persistent CONTRAILS and AVIATION CIRRUS are the fastest-growing contributor to regional surface warming - and yes, aircraft emissions sure are adding water vapor to the normally arid stratosphere.

I don't have time to study useless information that's going nowhere. I've stayed on this one very specific topic pretty closely over the last four years and in my opinion it's probably THE most politicized and suppressed of all current issues pertaining to the weather and climate changes we are witnessing.

Geez, you'd think this would be a no-brainer. I mean it's just so damned OBVIOUS what with our skies being continuously smeared up and all.

posted 08-24-2003 11:11 PM            

I'm just very frustrated [and genuinely WORRIED] about this particular situation as it does, in my observation, seem to be the object of a great deal of hostility coming from those who would rather the average person didn't know the true extent of the problem.

I'm getting ready to write a paper on this matter, after four years of waiting patiently for certain data to develop and attain what I call "redundant" status. This is one of the reference documents I found last Friday and I've just read it today and find the following excerpts very interesting:

July 1999

ENVIRONMENTAL NGO [Non-governmental Organization] SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS:
IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON AVIATION AND THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE

Excerpt 1:

.....The environmental NGOs welcome the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere". While the Special Report [June 1999] contains a Summary for Policymakers (SPM), the paper at hand has been produced to (i) make policy-makers aware of the concerns of the environmental NGOs about aspects of the Special Report; (ii) draw policy-makers’ attention to several policy areas which received only limited discussion in the SPM; and (iii) highlight its most significant conclusions as viewed by the environmental NGOs.

I) Concerns by the environmental NGOs

The environmental NGOs are concerned that the Summary for Policy Makers does not fully reflect the discussion in Chapter 10 of the Report on the potential use of regulatory and market-based mitigation measures.

The decision-makers need to be aware that it is no longer a question of whether mitigation measures are required to limit emissions from aircraft, but how such a strategy should be developed and implemented.....

Excerpt 2:

.....It is clearly stated in the Report that technological improvements will not be sufficient to offset the demand [for air travel.] It is therefore important to consider innovative and creative ways in which the demand can be tackled. Thus, policies will need to be developed that put the emphasis on the avoidance of unnecessary travel, such as the use of telecommunications instead of physical travelling.

Although some uncertainties still exist, the scientific facts provided in the report should prompt decision-makers to act based on the "precautionary principle", which is the starting point for any environmental action. The trade-offs between different environmental impacts are highlighted in the report, which conveys the idea that actions initiated to reduce some environmental impacts would create other, more acute problems somewhere else.

The erroneous impression is created that aircraft emissions could have positive effects or could compensate for other environmental problems..... [VERY INTERESTING. -Deborah]

Excerpt 3:

.....Aviation contributed approximately 2% of all carbon dioxide emissions from human sources in 1992, and its implications for climate change are well recognised. The report points out that the other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aircraft are also important.

NOx emissions from subsonic aircraft react to increase ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Increased ozone concentrations increase global warming.

NOx emissions also react to decrease levels of methane present in the atmosphere, which is said to have a cooling effect on the Earth's surface.

However, the IPCC Report notes that while the climatic effects of changes in ozone and methane resulting from aircraft NOx emissions are "of similar magnitude and opposite in sign, the latitudinal structure of the forcing is different so that the net regional radiative effects do not cancel".....

Excerpt 4:

.....Aircraft are also responsible for increased concentrations of water vapour in the lower stratosphere, that plays a large part in the formation of contrails. The Report estimates that contrails covered about 0.1% of the Earth's surface in 1992. This is greatest over the United States, the North Atlantic and Europe. 0.2% increase in global cirrus cover since the start of the ‘jet age’ has been observed, but much uncertainty still remains.

Although their impact is relatively small compared to other aircraft emissions, sulphates and soot tend to cool or warm the Earth's surface respectively, and are also important in the formation of clouds.....

Excerpt 5:

.....The IPCC Report points to one further effect of subsonic aircraft emissions to decrease UV radiation. On the other hand, decreases in stratospheric ozone from a second generation of supersonic aircraft would increase UV radiation. Taken together, the combined fleet would still increase the erythemal dose rate (a measure of how effective UV irradiance is in causing sunburn).....

DIRECT LINK EDITED OUT FOR NOW. IT IS WAY TOO LONG. WILL POST IT IN ABBREVIATED FORM ASAP.

8/31/03
Here it is:

The Summary

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posted 08-31-2003 07:23 PM            

Arctic research: Summer in Svalbard 992

Scientists at one of the world's most remote research outposts are tracking the air masses that swirl through the Arctic atmosphere in an attempt to understand why the ozone layer continues to thin. Quirin Schiermeier visits the Koldewey research station.
doi:10.1038/424992a

posted 09-01-2003 10:30 PM            

A Report on Aviation's External Costs
http://www.cfit.gov.uk/reports/aec/index.htm

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1 September 2003
LGCNet.com

CALL FOR AIRSPACE AND POLLUTION CHARGING

The Commission for Integrated Transport today called for a radical shake up of the charges airlines face for the pollution and congestion they cause.

The proposals would introduce tough new measures for airlines, see charges passed on to passengers and would give local communities more control over pollution.

In a new report*, the commission argues that airlines are responsible for far more pollution than they are held accountable for. Their responsibilities should be extended to congested runways and airspace, local environment, health effects, greenhouse gases and land blight.

CfIT argues that passing on these costs to the airlines is both in line with government's view that the “polluter pays” and incentivises airlines to raise their standards further.

Professor David Begg, the CfIT chair, said:

“The success of the UK aviation industry is vital both to the UK economy and our way of life but we must make sure that its contribution is a responsible and sustainable one.

Airports have a huge impact on the communities they serve as well as on the environment at large and we need to make sure that, in a world of growing demand, environmental impact is kept to a manageable minimum.

What we are proposing is nothing short of a radical reform to make operators and passengers confront the environmental consequences of their actions.

At the moment there is little incentive for airlines and passengers to change their behaviour.”

Passengers at UK airports tripled in the 20 years to 2001, rising from 50 million to 162 million. Future forecasts show demand rising by between 4 - 5% a year with fare prices expected to fall.

posted 09-02-2003 11:40 PM            

The National Academies Press

Contemporary Realities of Aviation, the Economy, and the Environment
http://www.nap.edu/html/greener_skies/ch1.html

INTRODUCTION

Flight through the air--by insects, birds, or airplanes--requires sufficient power to overcome the forces of gravity and drag. Since that first flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903, aviation has advanced at an astonishing rate to become a key component of developed economies and societies. Because of the success of aviation, aircraft operations consume increasing amounts of fuel and produce more emissions and noise. Today, the environmental impacts of aircraft, mainly engine noise and emissions, are a small but significant fraction of the total consequences of fossil fuel consumption. In the future, expected growth in the aviation sector, as well as the larger impact of some emissions when they are released at higher altitudes, will make aviation noise and emissions increasingly significant here and in other countries.

The list of contemporary and future environmental issues that aviation must address includes the following:

-- takeoff and approach noise (which present different technological problems for subsonic and supersonic aircraft)

-- flyover noise from cruise altitudes in very quiet areas

-- sonic booms and hyperbooms (i.e., the thermospheri-cally refracted and very low intensity remains of sonic booms)

-- taxi and engine run-up noise

-- fuel venting and fuel dumping

-- emission of CO, hydrocarbons, and NOx in the airport area (below 3,000 feet)

-- contrail formation

-- emissions of CO2

-- emissions in the upper troposphere and stratosphere (from both subsonic and supersonic aircraft) of water vapor, NOx, sulfur particles, and carbon particles

-- potential for greenhouse effects and depletion of stratospheric ozone

As discussed in Box 1-1, federal responsibilities for controlling the environmental effects of aviation reside primarily with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)..... [continued]

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posted 09-05-2003 12:24 AM            

www.us-caw.org/planetr.pdf

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15 July 1999
The Honorable David M. Walker
Comptroller General of the United States
U.S. General Accounting Office
441 G Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20548

Dear Mr. Walker:

Air travel is the fastest growing segment of the transportation industry, projected to continue growing at a rate of more than 5 percent per year. As such, the nation’s airports are expanding to meet this growing demand, with 60 of the nation’s largest airports planning to add or extend runways. The environmental impact of such development on nearby communities has become an increasing concern, in part, because 70 percent of the U.S. population lives within 20 miles of a major airport.

As you know, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has responsibility for assisting airports with development projects to help meet the increasing demand for air traffic services. In carrying out its mission, FAA must balance its goals of maintaining a safe and efficient air transportation system with its responsibility to minimize the impact on the environment.

While the growth in air travel and airport operations has raised environmental concerns, these concerns have also affected airport operations and growth. On the one hand, the industry’s growth has created concerns about noise, air, and water pollution. On the other hand, environmental concerns have increased the time and cost of development and imposed restrictions on flight patterns, airport use, and airport capacity.

In response to these concerns, several bills have recently been introduced into the Congress to foster a balance between the demands for expanding airport operations and preserving the environment. These bills would determine the feasibility of regulating noise, air, water, and solid waste pollution from all sources in and around airports.

To provide a framework for future congressional deliberations, I would like for GAO to conduct a broad review of the environmental issues associated with current and future airport operations and development. I would expect this initial review to identify the nature and scope of key environmental concerns/challenges that the Congress and the Department of Transportation would face in the short and long term, focusing primarily on issues related to noise pollution, air emissions, and water quality.

In addition, it should evaluate what is currently known about aviation’s impact on global warming and also include the status of FAA’s and other federal agencies’ efforts to address environmental concerns related to airport operations.

Finally, the initial review should describe what the nation’s largest airports are doing to balance airport operations and growth with environmental concerns.

I would anticipate requesting GAO to do follow-on work to examine other issues associated with the environmental impacts of airport operations and growth identified during the initial review.

With all best wishes.
Sincerely,
James L. Oberstar, M.C.
Ranking Democratic Member
http://www.house.gov/transportation_democrats/Of_Interest/990715_Walkerltr.html

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April 2000

posted 09-12-2003 10:44 PM            

Ozone hole is bigger than it has ever been

The Antarctic ozone hole is bigger than it has ever been at this time of year, threatening populated regions of south America and New Zealand with harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation.

Last year's hole was smaller than those recorded over the previous decade, leading to hopes that the protective ozone layer in the upper atmosphere was beginning to recover from its destruction by man-made CFC chemicals. But early observations reported on Friday to the British Association science festival at Salford University show that the hole, which appears every southern spring, is returning with a vengeance. The findings suggest that reduction of CFCs will take longer than expected to benefit the ozone layer.

Alan Rodger, who runs the British Antarctic Survey ozone-monitoring programme, said: "Last year's smaller hole should be regarded as exceptional and clearly a one-off event. It was... nothing to do with any reduction in ozone depleting chemicals."

The concentration of ozone destroying chemicals at the Earth's surface has fallen since 1994, following international agreement to phase out CFCs and related compounds through the Montreal Protocol. But levels in the stratosphere lag behind the surface by several years.

posted 09-19-2003 03:02 PM            

Ozone Hole Over Antarctic Equals 2000 Record -U.N.

GENEVA (Reuters) - The ozone hole over the Antarctic has equalled the 2000 record, covering an area larger than North America, the World Meteorological Organization (news - web sites) (WMO) said on Friday.

Over the past two weeks, the hole has widened from 9.63 million sq miles to 10.78 million sq miles, but it is "too early to predict with certainty" whether it has peaked, the United Nations (news - web sites) body said.

The maximum is normally attained in mid-September.

"(It) is larger than the combined areas of Canada, Mexico and the United States and contrasts the exceptionally small ozone hole last year," the WMO said.

Ozone is a protective layer in the atmosphere that shields the earth from the sun's rays, especially ultraviolet-B radiation that can cause skin cancer, cataracts and harm marine life.

The hole extends as far as the tip of South America where the southern Argentine city of Ushuaia has registered ozone values some 50 percent below the 1964-76 norm, the WMO said.

Last year, the hole peaked at 20 million sq km because of unusually warm weather over the South Pole.

Scientists first sounded the alarm in 1985, triggering an international campaign to reduce the world's use of certain man-made chemicals, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which were blamed for destroying the ozone layer.

According to the United Nations Environment Program, consumption of CFCs, commonly used as propellants in spray cans, dropped from 1.1 million tonnes in 1986 to 110,000 tonnes in 2001.

The WMO said that the wider hole in 2003 did not point to any increase in the amount of ozone-depleting chemicals in the atmosphere, but rather was a reflection of changes in weather conditions over the Antarctic.

posted 09-29-2003 06:59 PM            

Ozone depletion over Antarctica, September 29, 2003.

posted 10-02-2003 06:58 PM            

Envisat observes resurgent ozone hole

The latest ESA [European Space Agency] Earth Observation data show that reports of the demise of the ozone hole appearing annually above Antarctica have been greatly exaggerated.

The ozone hole is normally at its largest in September, but 2002 saw it at its smallest extent for more than a decade: 40% down on previous years. And a year ago ongoing satellite measurements of ozone - gathered by the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument on ESA’s ERS-2 satellite - showed it splitting in two.

“Using GOME we have gathered global stratospheric ozone data over the last eight years,” said Henk Eskes of KNMI. “And last year we were actually able to accurately predict the split a few days before it happened, as we were operating an ozone forecasting service.”

This dramatic reverse came just two years after the ozone hole had reached a record size ­ more than 30 million sq km in 2000.

posted 10-03-2003 10:59 PM            

Ozone hole more persistent than usual, heightening concern about harmful UV radiation reaching Earth

GENEVA -- The ozone hole over the South Pole, already as large as it has ever been, is also lasting longer this year, heightening concern about harmful UV radiation reaching the Earth, the United Nations' weather organization said Friday.

Compounding matters, the thinnest area is the largest ever measured, roughly two-thirds of the hole's total size, the World Meteorological Organization said.

"The ozone hole is getting larger, deeper and is lasting longer," said Michael Proffitt, a leading expert on the ozone hole at the U.N. agency. "It has never stayed this large, this late."

The "hole" is a thinner-than-normal area in the protective layer of gas high in the earth's atmosphere. It has formed in August -- the end of the Antarctic winter -- every year since the mid-1980s, largely due to chemical pollution.

In recent years, the hole has tended to reach its maximum size around mid-September, after which it mostly gets refilled with surrounding ozone.

But this year the hole peaked twice, once in mid-September and again in late September, the WMO said. Each time it measured 10.8 million square miles, matching the record size set three years ago in September 2000.

The hole could last longer still, Proffitt said.

posted 10-20-2003 10:21 AM            

UK aviation industry recognises need to address aviation's climate change impact

In short:
On 13 October the EU Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström discussed with the UK aviation industry alternatives as to how to reduce the impact of aviation on climate change.

Background:
Aviation is estimated to contribute around 3.5 per cent to human-induced global warming. And the growing number of flights is likely to exacerbate the problem of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions in the coming decades. A study from Cambridge University entitled "Aviation and the global atmosphere" suggests that the impact of aviation on climate change could grow to between 5 and 15 per cent of the total human-induced impact by 2050 (with a mid-range scenario of 6 per cent).

Issues:
On 13 October, the British Airport Association (BAA) organised a seminar to determine the best approach to address the impact of aviation on climate change. Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström, UK aviation minister Tony McNulty, BAA chief executive Mike Clasper, Friends of the Earth senior climate & transport campaigner Roger Higman and British Airways chief economist & head of environment Andrew Sentance focused discussions in particular on the role of aviation in the EU emissions trading scheme.

Positions:
Referring to the appropriate instruments which could be implemented within the aviation industry to combat climate change Environment Commissioner Margot Wallström mentioned three instruments:

-- The exemption of taxation on kerosene should be ended. The new Community Directive on energy taxation will allow Member States to tax kerosene on domestic flights and - on the basis of bilateral agreements - intra-EU flights;

-- An 'en route emissions charge' could be introduced. The Commission is currently considering the results of a study on 'en route charges' that could form the basis for a Commission proposal;

-- The EU emissions trading scheme should be applied to aviation. The commission is studying how this could be achieved.

The British Airport Association considers that "the aviation industry cannot grow unless it tackles its global impacts: by making the most of the positive economic, social and cultural benefits of aviation, and by constantly striving to drive down the negative impacts on its local communities and the environment".