posted 08-20-2001 11:42 AM            

I saw this thread having just come from the web-site in question, where i posted the following information:

"I reviewed the information on 2001AV43, both here and at NEODsys; here are my inputs.

1. Its May 10 pass here, listed at 0.089AU, is approximately 8.25 million miles, about sixteen times the distance from the earth to the moon.

2. According to the NEODsys data, on June 17, 2005, quoted in the above post as possible impact date calculated and the one with the highest probability of occurring", the asteriod will be at a distance of 0.1550 AU (~14,415,000 miles) from the earth.

3. The "Earth Impact Possibilities" section of the NEODys page, is characterized by the notation:

"In this page we list all the asteroids for which possible impact solutions, compatible with the existing observations, are known.
In all these cases we have been able to compute a very small, but definitely non-zero, probability of collision."

2001PM9 does not even appear on this page.

Bear in mind that I am only an amateur astronomer; I know very little about orbital calculations. Whatever mechanics I learned
were in a couple of physics courses long years ago. Bear in mind also that I have never used the NEODys data base, and may
be overlooking important data.

But that being said, I do not see 2001PM9 as being very dangerous at all. If my conclusions are incorrect (and they may well be, given my ignorance in this matter) I'd appreciate some feedback.

Regards,

Duncan"