posted 09-04-2002 10:03 PM            

Abduction Statistics

Question 1: What is NISMART?

Answer: The National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Thrownaway Children, known as NISMART, were undertaken in response to the mandate of the Missing Children's Assistance Act (P.L. 98-473) that requires the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention to conduct periodic national incidence studies to determine the number of children who are reported missing for a given year and the number recovered. It consists of several complementary studies designed to provide national estimates of the size and nature of the missing children problem. NISMART-2, the second such set of studies, includes a very large national survey of more than 16,000 households to interview parents and other primary caretakers of children about their children's experiences. The household survey also interviewed a sample of 5,000 youth aged 10 -18 to supplement what caretakers knew. To capture the experiences of those youth who may also have runaway from residential placements such as group homes, a survey of juvenile facilities was conducted. Because of the unique knowledge of law enforcement about the most serious and rarest cases, stereotypical kidnappings by strangers, a large scale survey of police departments was conducted to gather detailed information from their investigative files regarding the characteristics of the incidents, the children, and the perpetrators.

Question 2. Has there been an actual decline or increase in stranger abductions?

Answer: While the numbers reported from NISMART-1 (200 - 300) and NISMART-2 (115) appear to reflect a decline in stereotypical kidnappings by strangers, these numbers are estimates derived from studies that used very different methodologies. For example, in NISMART-1 researchers studied police records from a sample of 83 law enforcement agencies. In the NISMART-2 the sample was expanded to more than 4,000 agencies and data were collected from police personnel who investigated these cases. Because of the differences in methods, and the rarity of such cases, we cannot conclude on a scientific basis that there has been a true decline—though it is possible. We can, however, conclude that the new results do not indicate an increase from NISMART-1 to NISMART-2. Whether the very recent high profile cases coming to the public's attention reflect an increase since NISMART-2, we cannot say for certain. Statistically, however, it is very unlikely. (See discussion on reference dates.)

posted 09-04-2002 10:12 PM            

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The good news, experts say, is that these recent high profile cases do not reflect a growing problem. According to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children, the number of serious abduction cases is consistent with last year's figures, but overall trends show an actual decline in such cases. In 2001, 725,000 children - nearly 2,000 per day - were reported missing. Most cases involved abduction by a parent, or a child running away. The vast majority of kids were recovered quickly. Three thousand to 5,000 children were involved in so-called "stranger danger" cases, taken by a non-family member. Of these, 200 to 300 were cases where the child was murdered or ransomed.

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posted 09-04-2002 11:55 PM               

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Worried UK parents are asking to have tracking microchips implanted into their children following the murders of two 10-year-old girls, a cybernetics expert says.

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I saw this coming a while ago. Not long after the recent kidnappings, representatives from Digital Angel were doing interviews concerning their microchips. The implanting of these chips might seem like a good idea right now to some worried parents but consider the possibility that these chips might have an unlimited lifespan and in the future when these children reach adulthood the chips could very well be used to track them where ever they went.