posted 03-23-2003 10:30 AM            

I"t is highly unlikely that western technical superiority could be brought to bear. The effects of air power - so devastating on an enemy in open terrain - would be neutered in an environment where front lines run house by house, street by street. To heavy armour and attack helicopters, designed to be fast moving and hard-hitting on the open battlefield, narrow streets and covered alleys are lethal. It is left to the man on his feet, armed with an automatic weapon, a bag of grenades and loads of ammunition.

But does General Franks have enough of this simple commodity, Tommy Atkins and G.I. Joe? Military doctrine stipulates that troops attacking an enemy in prepared defensive positions require a three-to-one numerical advantage.

Historical precedent from city sieges like Stalingrad and Berlin suggest that this figure soars to a ratio of around nine to one when the attack involves street fighting at close quarters against a determined enemy.

With the US 4th Infantry Division still in limbo, waiting to go ashore in Turkey, and the second echelon forces of the 1st Cavalry and 1st US Armoured divisions weeks away from being combat-ready in theatre, General Franks does not have the manpower - if the Republican Guard remains loyal to the Baghdad regime."

There dives the stock market. Better invest in Defense and oil.