posted 01-22-2004 05:56 AM
Sinking Ship
http://tompaine.com/feature2.cfm/ID/9800
Robert Dreyfuss is a freelance writer based in Alexandria, Virginia, who specializes in politics and national security issues. He is currently working on a book about America's policy toward political Islam over the past 30 years.
Seemingly adrift from reality, President Bush last night firmly tied himself instead to a failed and sinking Iraq policy.
On one hand, the president told the nation that things were getting better and better in Iraq, that U.S. weapons specialists were finding more and more evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, and that America doesn’t need no stinkin’ UN permission slip to wage war. On the other hand, his very own advisers were scrambling amidst UN diplomats, America’s Arab allies and Iraq’s swirling ethnic and religious factions to try to prevent Iraq from becoming completely undone. We can only hope that Jerry Bremer, Jim Baker, Colin Powell and Karl Rove weren’t listening to the speech.
Does the president know that Iraq is on the verge of coming unglued? That go-for-broke Kurdish warlords, angry Sunni sheikhs and turbaned, fundamentalist Iraqi Shiites are pushing the ruined nation to the brink of civil war? That the UN that he so cavalierly dismissed with a throwaway line of election rhetoric is America’s one last hope for salvaging a shaky political accord in Iraq? That our Arab allies—who didn’t support the war and who can help finance Iraq’s recovery—have nearly given up hoping that Washington will come to its senses? Listening to the speech, the answer has got to be: No.
Bremer knows. For the second time in two months, he’s rushed back to the United States with America’s post-war plans for Iraq in a shambles. It’s increasingly likely that the United States will have to abandon its vaunted June 30 deadline for Iraqi sovereignty, and Bremer knows that the pieces of Iraq’s political puzzle just don’t fit together. He’s trying to do his best to make them fit, but the task is way above his pay grade. Baker knows: The patrician eminence grise of the Republican realist circle is out there dealing with reality. First, talking to the Germans, French and Russians, he tried to win an agreement for them to write off the Iraqi debt they hold—and he seems to have been successful in getting the Pentagon’s mean-spirited ban on their participation in Iraqi reconstruction reversed. This week he’s engaged in an even tougher task: trying to do the same with the Arabs. Bush’s tough-guy rhetoric and rapturous vision of America as a "nation with a mission" and a "special calling" to remake the world in its image won’t help.
Powell knows. Powell and his disparaged diplomats are scrambling to convince the UN to come back to Iraq to help organize a political transition, or at least to talk some sense into the scowling, medieval Ayatollah Sistani and his benighted followers. We may not need the UN’s permission, but we do need their help now.
And Rove knows. Rove, sources say, is fed up with the neoconservatives’ Iraqi fantasy. It was a fairy tale, and it’s midnight now—and all of the neocons’ hopes for Iraq have turned to ashes. If you were Rove, and you were trying to get the hapless Bush reelected, would you stick with the neocons? Or would you place your bets elsewhere? Say, on Bremer, Baker, and Powell.